Gazing in the Congo (DRC): the dark heart of Africa (2006-2017) [Archive] - Page 3

M-A Lagrange

09-07-2011, 05:35 AM

Congo: The Electoral Process Seen from the East
Africa Briefing N°80
5 Sep 2011

The full briefing is currently only available in French.

OVERVIEW

Voter registration that began across the Congo in April 2011 concluded on 17 July, on time even in troubled regions such as the Kivu provinces and the Ituri district, and produced a nearly 6.3 million increase in the electorate, 24.5 per cent over the 2006 exercise. If it went relatively well, it was mainly because the voter’s card also serves as an identity card, so is as useful to militiamen as to ordinary citizens. Neither civil society nor political parties fundamentally challenged the operation at the local level, but this is not synonymous with satisfaction. The surprising results the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced and lack of dialogue and verification by the voters themselves feed latent but widespread suspicions in the opposition and civil society. To ensure credible elections, it is necessary to improve transparency, respect the electoral law and establish a forum for dialogue between INEC, the parties and civil society.

Ituri and North and South Kivu form a key region for two reasons: they are the sole part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) still harbouring armed groups, and they provided an important reservoir of votes for the ruling party in the 2006 elections. With Katanga and Maniema, it was the East – Orientale (including Ituri) and the Kivus – that elected Joseph Kabila and his People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD), giving it more than 90 per cent support. However, the political landscape has changed in this region: an opposition party has emerged – the Congolese Union for the Nation (UNC) led by Vital Kamerhe, the former chair of the National Assembly – and the popularity of the government is falling due to persistent insecurity.

In an area that is electorally and militarily strategic, the campaign has just begun, in an atmosphere of relative political freedom that does not exclude, however, some restrictions and intimidation. Access to the media remains unbalanced, and there is pressure on the opposition, especially the UNC, because it is very active in this region. Nevertheless, due to the asymmetry of political forces, local politicians regard the presidential election as already decided in the East and the main stakes to be the legislative and provincial elections.

The electoral process in the East has generated suspicion on a national scale that risks developing into a crisis of confidence in the whole electoral process. Based on Crisis Group’s regional observations, the following measures should be taken across the country:

•the international community should observe the entire electoral process in detail, particularly in rural areas;
•political parties and civil society should prepare now for observing the voting, and the former should be allowed to campaign freely;
•INEC should scrupulously respect the electoral code, especially regarding accreditation of observers, and should establish a formal platform for dialogue with political parties and civil society at both national and provincial level;
•INEC should establish transparent and widely publicised procedures for receiving grievances from civil society and the political parties regarding the approaching elections;
•INEC should publish the voters list and the breakdown of registration by district and territory in 2006 and 2011 and publicly explain its methodology for finalising the voters roll;
•INEC should establish a standardised procedure for challenging the results and publish those results by each voting station;
•the High Council for Media should quickly become operational;
•all stakeholders in the electoral process should accept the code of conduct introduced by the Special Representative of the Secretary-General of the UN; and the UN mission in the Congo (MONUSCO) should encourage a more sustained respect for political freedom and dialogue between INEC, the political parties and civil society at national and provincial level, since dialogue is the key element in building trust;
•MONUSCO should continue to deploy its troops in the areas where the armed groups are active;
•MONUSCO and the international community should increase their crowd management training program for the Congolese police;
•MONUSCO should increase its logistical support for the timely distribution of electoral material; and
•the presidential majority and the opposition should, for the contingency that postponement of the elections cannot be avoided, negotiate an agreement that sets a new deadline for the elections and provides that government would limit itself to routine business until they are held.

Having already analysed the main challenges of the electoral process nationally in the report Congo: The Electoral Dilemma, Crisis Group in this briefing examines voter registration and the beginning of the campaign on the ground in the East, putting the preparations for elections in late 2011 in their local context and highlighting the electoral stakes in a region that remains fundamental for durable stability in the country.

Kinshasa/Nairobi/Brussels, 5 September 2011
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/central-africa/dr-congo/B80-congo-the-electoral-process-seen-from-the-east.aspx

An english version of this up date briefing should be soon available.
Anyways, comments are welcomed.

M-A Lagrange

09-07-2011, 02:46 PM

Stan

09-07-2011, 08:10 PM

Hey M-A !

Sorry for the late replies herein as I just returned.

Now what was Tshisekedi thinking would happen considering his past performance as a Minister (3 weeks in 2 decades) and openly calling Mobutu's henchmen toads :D Say the least of his purported involvement in sending militants to disturb polls and destroying electoral banners !

Getting around to your document (my French is rusty as ever ;) )

Regards, Stan

M-A Lagrange

09-09-2011, 11:04 AM

Activist dies in Democratic Republic of Congo unrest
An opposition activist has been shot dead in Democratic Republic of Congo during clashes with police in Kinshasa.
The fighting came after the offices of the opposition Union for Democracy and Social Progress were set alight, and an opposition TV station was attacked.
UDPS activists said police had opened fire with live ammunition. The police have not yet commented on the claims.
UDPS candidate Etienne Tshisekedi is the main challenger to President Joseph Kabila in an election set for November.
Some of the gang that attacked the UDPS offices wore T-shirts of Mr Kabila's People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD), a witness told Reuters news agency.
DR Congo's Interior Minister Adolphe Lumanu Mulenda told a news conference the attacks may have been retribution for a similar attack on a PPRD building on Monday.
"Probably reacting to the attack on the inter-federal seat of the PPRD, some troublemakers have sacked the offices of the UDPS and RLTV television channel," he said.
Several people have been injured in various clashes over the past few days, says the BBC's Thomas Hubert in Kinshasa, adding that the capital remains tense.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14810845

Apparently the US and EU ambassadors called for calm and elections in peace. But it would be worse reminding them that this time there is no EUFOR to stabilize Kinshasa and that 8 RPIMA is busy in Afghanistan.
So might be good to think further than just deploying some UNPOL in poling stations and crying at burial after things went wrong.
Especially as strongest opposition party (UDPS) refused to sign the good behavious code for election and is planing, since the first day, to play the street to contest any result coming from the pole different than a victory for them.

Stan

09-09-2011, 03:44 PM

DR Congo bounty for fugitive Gedeon Kyungu Mutanga (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14856852)

Authorities in Democratic Republic of Congo have offered a reward of $100,000 (£63,000) for information leading to the capture of a top militia leader who broke out of jail.

Escapes and mutinies are common in DR Congo's prisons, analysts say, with the east largely lawless as rival militias battle for power.

carl

09-09-2011, 06:34 PM

That is odd, $100,000 just for info. Of course even if somebody gave him up, I doubt they would ever see the money. Still it is odd. Gedeon didn't have much of a following if I remember. He mostly had a village that moved around and robbed.

Stan

09-09-2011, 08:37 PM

Hey Carl !
Indeed odd as if someone in the DRC actually had 100K.

Gédéon, like many other militia commanders, is but a scape goat for the DRC govt. in order to act like they are cleaning up and get ahold of all that cash offered in exchange for war crimes accountability. He was later sentenced to death for acts of insurgency and terrorism ! What ?

Imagine the Zairois faces when they found out the HRW actually opposes capital punishment :rolleyes:

Regards, Stan

That is odd, $100,000 just for info. Of course even if somebody gave him up, I doubt they would ever see the money. Still it is odd. Gedeon didn't have much of a following if I remember. He mostly had a village that moved around and robbed.

M-A Lagrange

09-12-2011, 11:51 AM

Hey Carl,

Well, apparently it was Gedeon wife who was behind his escape. She was liberated few weeks before.
He is probably in his village now, lost in the bush.

I agree with Stan, Gedeon was a skip goat for government weapons and ammunitions dropping. But he went a little too far in the Triangle de la mort.

The funniest or sadest in that story is that's the third massive evasion since begining of the year in DRC.

M-A

carl

09-12-2011, 12:46 PM

That is a woman I would like to meet...maybe.

M-A Lagrange

09-30-2011, 09:00 AM

It took longer than expected but here is the last briefing up date from ICG in english on DRC:
The electoral process seen from the East.
http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/africa/central-africa/dr-congo/B80%20Congo%20-%20The%20Electoral%20Process%20Seen%20from%20the%2 0East%20ENGLISH.pdf

Do not hesitate to shoot questions, remarques and comments.

M-A

M-A Lagrange

11-27-2011, 05:30 PM

http://fsddc.wordpress.com/2011/11/27/video-euronews-kinshasa-a-feu-et-a-sangcivils-massacres-a-balles-reelles/

The video was shot yesterday after noon at N'Djili airport when UDPS supporters (Opposition) tried to welcome their leader.

That very same day, the president Kabila was supposed to have a meeting in Stade des Martyres.
Kinshasa governor (pro government) banned all political rally for security reasons.

In fact their was nobody at Kabila meeting, all the population was waiting for UDPS leader.

MONUSCO has been extremely weak in providing good offices between political parties and with the government to allow the coming electoral process to be free, fair, credible and democratic.

Stan

11-28-2011, 06:12 AM

Link to article in English with more videos.

Seems the 31st Para (maroon berets) are more the culprits than the police and civil guard (both showing up slightly later in the video). Great press coverage on all those donations (police water canons and new PPE (in English :rolleyes:).

Security forces (http://allafrica.com/stories/201111270034.html) in the Democratic Republic of Congo blocked incumbent President Joseph Kabila's main challenger on Saturday at the capital's international airport ahead of the country's presidential elections.

Stan

11-28-2011, 06:37 PM

And to think we thought our election process was stymied :D

DR Congo (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15910554) votes amid delays and violence

In some areas, the ballot paper ran to several pages and resembles a newspaper because there are so many parliamentary candidates.

More than 30 million voters
More than 19,000 parliamentary candidates
500 parliamentary seats
MPs paid $6,000 (£3,887) a month
The Kinshasa ballot will be a 56-page booklet of more than 1,500
candidates
11 presidential candidates
4,000 tonnes of ballot papers
61 helicopters and 20 planes are delivering the election material

This is likely to have caused some confusion in a country where one-third of adults cannot read or write.

Dayuhan

11-28-2011, 10:20 PM

The counting process must be... interesting, for want of a better word. Or do they even bother going through the motions?

M-A Lagrange

11-29-2011, 12:41 AM

Since SRSG Roger Meece said everything went fine while there were mass frauds and several people killed in the process... Why bother.

The counting process must be... interesting, for want of a better word. Or do they even bother going through the motions?

davidbfpo

11-29-2011, 11:18 AM

Yesterday there was a short film clip on the TV news here, from a polling station where what appeared to be an official was accused of ballot rigging and was being chased by a group of voters. Nothing extra-ordinary? Except there was an EU Observer team watching, which probably explains how the TV clip got out. It was quite funny as the observers were completely at a loss.

Alas I cannot now locate the film clip on the TV news.

Stan

11-29-2011, 02:39 PM

Polling Stations Attacked. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VZhWZmede4)

David, looks like what you described. Nothing funny nor unusual here depending on your point of view and time in country :D

The UN version (http://monusco.unmissions.org/Default.aspx) from yesterday would appear a little optimistic however :rolleyes:

davidbfpo

11-29-2011, 04:01 PM

Stan,

Yes that is the clip. I thought the EU Observers looked embarrassed and unlikely to have seen such blatant, overt ballot rigging - well not in Western Europe. My sense of humour I guess saying it was funny. Observing is great, submitting a report and proclaiming from a safe distance "All is well" or not is no substitute for action at the time. To the local voter what value were the EU Observers for a fair and democratic ballot? Almost nil I'd wager.

Stan

11-29-2011, 04:30 PM

David,
Going to this link (http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/what/human-rights/election_observation_missions/about-electoral-support_en.htm) may be slightly depressing considering the video content.

Election observation is the political complement to election assistance. Its main goals are the legitimisation of an electoral process, where appropriate, and the enhancement of public confidence in the electoral process, to deter fraud, to strengthen respect for human rights, and to contribute to the resolution of conflict. EU election observation involves the assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of an electoral process and the presentation of recommendations that will provide an important basis for deciding on further assistance after the elections.

BTW, as of today they were still looking for a Deputy Chief Observer and Statistician :eek:

UPDATE 26 SEPTEMBER 2011 - Request for candidatures for the following TWO positions in the Core Team for the EU Electoral Observation Mission (EOM) to observe the forthcoming presidential and legislative elections in Democratic Republic of Congo scheduled for 28 November 2011.

NEW deadline (http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/what/human-rights/election_observation_missions/request-for-candidates-core-team_en.htm) for application: 29 September 2011 (noon Brussels time).

M-A Lagrange

11-30-2011, 07:52 AM

Situation in DRC is very confused at the momment.

There were incidents in Kananga, Mbuji Mayi, Mbandaka, Lubumbashi... Mainly all the biggest cities in the country.
Some were elections related, some not (As in Katanga).

The feeling in Kinshasa is extremely disturbing as all the population is against the actual president, Joseph Kabila. But don't forget that politic in DRC is no more done in Kinshasa only.

To add even more confusion, vottings have been extended yesterday (Tuesday) and today (Wenesday) in some part of the country.

Several candidates from opposition, Kamerhe (UNC), Mbusa (RCD Kml), Kengo (UFC), Bombole (independant/MLC), have called to cancel the elections.

Stan

11-30-2011, 02:44 PM

DR Congo's Vital Kamerhe leads calls to annul vote (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15948152)

Four opposition candidates in the Democratic Republic of Congo's election say it should be cancelled because of fraud and violence.

They include Vital Kamerhe, who said the rigging was on a large scale and "deliberately planned" with pre-marked ballot papers.

"Police chased witnesses from polling stations before counting could start."

Mr Kamerhe's aides also accused the UN peacekeeping mission in DR Congo of showing bias towards Mr Kabila.

M-A Lagrange

11-30-2011, 06:20 PM

KingJaja

11-30-2011, 06:48 PM

As an African trained in Britain and conversant with the long history and benefits of a democratic culture, it sad for me to say that Congo (and most of Africa) isn't really ready for democracy.

I've lived through twelve years of democracy in Nigeria, and it hasn't really done us a lot of good (except lower the barriers for Western investment - which is mostly limited to the Oil and Gas industry, anyway). It hasn't really resulted in economic development, it has exacerbated our differences, it hasn't resulted in infrastructural development and has resulted in 40,000 dead and counting.

Most African politicians are "big men" with private armies of thugs (usually drawn from the same ethnic group). No one votes for issues, people merely line up behind the candidate from their ethnic group, if they are reluctant to do so, they are encouraged to do so by a few dollars or the goons encourage them to do so.

Is it really appropriate to insist on Western-style democracy in a country that barely has motorable roads, with a gdp per capita of $189 and very low literacy rates. As usual the Carter center will be there to look on (they oversaw the charade called the 2007 elections in Nigeria).

A Ghanaian intellectual once described Africa as having a colonial and a post-colonial problem. The colonial problem is inferiority complex, but the post-colonial problem is worse: hopelessness. Hopelessness stems from our experience since 1960 - i.e. the realisation that having been through so much since independence, we aren't really getting anywhere, and that our worst problems are our leaders and ourselves.

Stan

11-30-2011, 07:02 PM

Stan,

Finally Kamerhe decided to change mind and not call for cancellation.

Personnally I am desipointed by Carter Center. They had the courrage this morning to list a lot of irregularities but finally said that it was OK.
http://www.cartercenter.org/news/pr/drc-prelim-113011.html

SADC said everything is fine. :eek::rolleyes:

Salut !
Looking at their website I can't believe someone would even post this nonsense.

The official campaign (http://www.cartercenter.org/news/pr/drc-prelim-113011.html) period was largely peaceful and competitive, though marred by deaths and arrests when police responded to demonstrations.

davidbfpo

11-30-2011, 08:14 PM

I earlier posted this question aimed mainly at Stan, to which he responded and now the latest posts, post-election make it more appropriate IMHO. I've changed EU for all external observers:
To the local voter what value were the external Observers for a fair and democratic ballot?

What grand company all these observers keep - with each other - EU, SADC and the Carter Institute? All I'm sure "rubbing shoulders" in safe overnight shelter and comfortably paid.

Stan

11-30-2011, 08:30 PM

I earlier posted this question aimed mainly at Stan, to which he responded and now the latest posts, post-election make it more appropriate IMHO. I've changed EU for all external observers:

What grand company all these observers keep - with each other - EU, SADC and the Carter Institute? All I'm sure "rubbing shoulders" in safe overnight shelter and comfortably paid.

David,
Where to begin ? I have never seen fair and free elections in the 11 countries I worked in. I'm not even sure what all those institutions are doing there and who is paying the tab.

To the local voter what value were the external Observers for a fair and democratic ballot?

M-A probably has his own version, but mine is: The perception (to the Western world) is that foreigners are ensuring a fair and democratic election. The Congolese (the vast majority) are convinced that nothing good will come out of this. They have good reason to believe that. They also have puppets (candidates) that play on the populations' fears and hopes using these observers to back that Bravo Sierra. There is no hope and it's ridiculous to think that something free and fair would ever come.

Even in the 90s when some of "us" were sent to these so-called polling stations the scene was just as vile and pathetic. Yet, the lines went on forever. Me standing there in pea-green fatigues was just stupid (as if I had some control over the situation).

davidbfpo

11-30-2011, 09:01 PM

Stan,

You ask, rhetorically I suspect:
who is paying the tab

You and I are. Without checking I expect the Carter Institute relies on federal funds for such work, unless there is a 'Whitewater' dividend still.:wry:

As for the EU's motives, another time.

Stan

11-30-2011, 09:22 PM

David,
As an NGO there must be millions of donors.

What I also found equally assuring ;) was their work with the mining sector (http://www.cartercenter.org/news/multimedia/PeacePrograms/MappingaWayForward-DRC-Mining.html) in DRC.

The funding sources are indeed in the millions :eek:

davidbfpo

11-30-2011, 10:20 PM

According to their owned Annual Report 2009-2010, including audited accounts, the Carter Institute has a variety of income sources, taking the top three categories in %:
Corporations 66.7; Individuals 12.6 & Governmental 10.3

Regarding elections it said:
Our election observation work in Sudan was made possible this year with support from Norway, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the United Kingdom Department for International Development (DFID), Nordem, the Netherlands, Germany, and the United Nations Development Program. Election monitoring in Guinea was supported by the United States and Irish Aid.

Link:http://cartercenter.org/resources/pdfs/news/annual_reports/annual-report-10.pdf

I'm no accountant, but they do have large assets / investments too. The report does not make it clear, but I expect the election work is all government-funded, albeit not just Stan's USD taxes, but my UK pounds.

M-A Lagrange

12-02-2011, 10:11 PM

M-A Lagrange

12-03-2011, 08:42 AM

Kabila camp threatens to smash DRC rival's 'insurrection'

Two days after elections marred by deadly violence and reports of fraud began, Presidential Majority secretary-general Aubin Minaku accused opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi's UDPS party of "insurrectionist schemes".
"We're in the last phase of the insurrectionist schemes of the UDPS," Minaku said.

"The state will exercise its prerogatives in a firm manner" if there is any unrest, he added.

"Whoever commits an infraction, even if it's Etienne Tshisekedi, will have to face the force of the law, that's what we will see in the coming days."
Monday's polls were marred by allegations of fraud, chaos at many voting centres and apparent separatist attacks that killed at least 10 people. Four opposition presidential candidates have called for the elections to be annulled, alleging pro-Kabila fraud -- though Tshisekedi has not joined the call.
Minaku levelled his own accusations against the UDPS Wednesday.
"We have proof that [electoral officials] have been assaulted" by UDPS supporters during the elections, he claimed.
https://www.osac.gov/pages/News.aspx?featured=Yes

An unpopular and barrely credible government is preparing to size power.

From US embassy site:

There have also been numerous reports of irregularities from voter list discrepancies to ballot shortages. We recognize that no election is conducted perfectly – the United States struggles, as do all nations, with a task of this complexity – but irregularities undermine the transparency of the process.
http://kinshasa.usembassy.gov/speeches_english_12012011.html

The congolese translation from Digital Congo, a news web site property of Kabila familly:
« Nous savons que nulle élection n’est parfaite en soi comme tous les pays, les Etats-Unis n’ont toujours pas résorbé une tâche d’une telle complexité – toutefois, les irrégularités ne minent pas la transparence de ce processus », a-t-il ajouté.

We recognize that no election is conducted perfectly – the United States struggles, as do all nations, with a task of this complexity – but irregularities DO NOT undermine the transparency of the process.
http://www.digitalcongo.net/article/80022

Know your ennemy!

carl

12-03-2011, 02:58 PM

M-A:

The HRW report said that the LRA attacked a group of voters. Are they hiring themselves out to some local politician or did they just take advantage of a some people who were out in the open?

Stan

12-03-2011, 04:02 PM

DR Congo: Rein in Security Forces
http://www.hrw.org/news/2011/12/02/dr-congo-rein-security-forces

Over 18 deads according to HRW. Main perpetrators: presidential guards.

But internal security minister said they were not deployed...

The link's top picture is at N'djili and the maroon berets are the 31st para living right across the street.

Carl, if you recall your time in Zaire, everybody was accessible and hiring some armed thugs was a question of money - even the venerable DSP.

M-A Lagrange

12-03-2011, 04:19 PM

Carl:

I cannot confirm anything about LRA. Communications in DRC are difficult at the momment. Government in jaming international lines and SMS.

Stan:

I cannot comment on HRW. But Lember Mende just did. He said presidential convoy did not kill anyone... :eek:
The link to the article in french on digital congo (pro government)

Le gouvernement de la Rdc rejette les accusations de l’Ong Human Right Watch
DRC government reject HRW accusations
http://www.digitalcongo.net/article/80026

I am glad US Embassador took the decision to finally criticise the electoral process. Better late than never.
I hope he will keep on following that line.
Who ever won those elections (Kabila or Tshisekedi, I do not care), it has to be through a credible and transparent process without frauds.

Stan

12-06-2011, 03:09 PM

President Joseph Kabila is leading Democratic Republic of Congo's (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16047150) election with 46% of the vote, results show.

And much like the 90s...

A senior official close to Mr Kabila has warned that the army could be deployed if the "situation becomes too chaotic for the police".

Crisis Watch (http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/crisiswatch/crisiswatch-database.aspx?CountryIDs={C076CDFE-2B2D-4642-8895-5EF27AE4E416}#results) now (once again) has DRC listed as Conflict Risk Alert status.

Fears violence will escalate following 28-30 presidential elections marred by disorganization, allegations of fraud and violence, and subsequent call by 4 opposition candidates for results to be invalidated. SADC, AU observers 30 Nov said polls success, no basis for annulment.

davidbfpo

12-08-2011, 10:19 AM

Moderator's Note

On the 8th December 2011 this thread's title was changed from 'Congo-Rwandan War: the Ever Ready Rabbit', to Gazing in the Congo (DRC): the dark heart of Africa, which recognises that matters Congo (DRC) are the focus.

This thread has been running for four years and is the largest Africa thread, in post and views.

davidbfpo

12-08-2011, 10:22 AM

A backgrounder on the DRC:http://www.opendemocracy.net/pete-jones/material-stakes-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-elections

It also, however partial the author is, reminds us that some can make lots of money in the DRC and so pay for power.

M-A Lagrange

12-08-2011, 01:33 PM

Urgent Media Release: DR Congo: Saving the ElectionsKinshasa/Nairobi/Brussels | 8 Dec 2011

A week after presidential and legislative polls, the Democratic Republic of Congo faces a political crisis that could plunge it back into major violence. Preliminary results, expected today, risk sparking opposition protests that, in turn, prompt heavy-handed repression by Congolese security forces and wider disorder. To avert violence, Congolese authorities must take urgent measures to salvage a reasonably representative result out of a badly flawed process. The United Nations, African Union and European Union must work together to mediate with Congolese leaders a way out of the crisis.

Last week tens of millions of Congolese cast ballots in only the second elections since the country’s brutal civil war. The vote marked the culmination of a troubled year of preparations, with the playing field gradually skewed towards incumbent president Joseph Kabila. Constitutional changes dropped the requirement for a run-off, which, with opposition leaders failing to unite behind a candidate, effectively split their vote. Kabila loyalists were appointed to the election commission and the Supreme Court, which settles electoral disputes. Despite discrepancies in registration figures, opposition parties and observers were unable to audit voter rolls. The state-run media drummed up support for the president. Nonetheless, considerably less popular than when he won the 2006 polls, Kabila faced stiff competition, especially from veteran opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi. With another candidate, Vital Kamerhe, threatening to sap Kabila’s votes in the Kivus – vital to his win five years ago – the president’s re-election was far from secure.

The vote itself was plagued by chaotic management and reports of localised violence and rigging – including voter intimidation and pre-marked ballots. Scheduled on November 28, it was extended for two days as materials arrived late and many names were missing from voter lists. International observers, including from the EU and the Carter Center, reported widespread irregularities – though as few ventured outside major towns they may have missed the worst abuses.

Counting has been as unruly as voting, and dangerously opaque. Criteria for disqualifying ballots are unclear, with Kinshasa – an opposition stronghold – disproportionately affected. Most significantly, the electoral commission has refused to publish results by polling station, which would permit their verification by opposition parties and observers. Election day flaws were bad enough; but perceptions that results are fiddled behind closed doors would spell disaster.

Congo’s electoral woes reflect the country’s broader lack of democratic and institutional development since 2006. But they also stem from weak international and continental engagement. Despite reports by the UN Joint Human Rights Office of human rights violations during the campaign, the UN mission, MONUSCO, has been reluctant to criticise openly the government and the electoral authorities. MONUSCO has also apparently shied away from providing the good offices envisaged in its Security Council mandate; a vital role given the opposition’s lack of confidence in Congolese institutions. Donors too – especially the EU and the UK, who partly funded the polls, and the U.S. – have been largely ineffective in preventing Kabila’s consolidation of power and stacking the decks.

A sense of foreboding now hangs over Kinshasa. On the eve of elections a fierce crackdown by the security forces against opposition protesters left, according to Human Rights Watch, eighteen dead and more than 100 injured. During voting, opposition supporters and authorities clashed in Kasai and Katanga, while other areas reported sporadic violence, including election materials destroyed and voters prevented from casting ballots. The arrival of reinforcements from the presidential guard to military camps on the outskirts of the capital and the removal of certain officers are ominous signs. Both sides can easily mobilise militias and armed youth groups.

Over the weekend thousands of Congolese reportedly crossed into neighbouring Congo-Brazzaville, fearing violence. Rumours of machetes distributed, gangs mobilising and a heavy security presence risk spreading panic in the capital. Leaders of the Catholic Church, which deployed some 30,000 observers – more than any other group -- during polling, are reluctant to publish their findings in the fear that they would fan tension. Over the weekend Bishop Nicolas Djombo described the situation as a “train running into the wall”. The International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor, meanwhile, has stated that the DRC situation was under watch.

The electoral commission’s preliminary results, due shortly, will almost certainly show Kabila leading. But given the body’s partisanship and widespread irregularities, they are unlikely to inspire much confidence. Opposition politicians will reject them out of hand. The Supreme Court should resolve disputes, but with that body also stuffed with Kabila loyalists, losers are more likely to take their grievances to the streets. The scale of bloodshed is difficult to predict: Kinshasa will bear the brunt of clashes, but violence could explode in other areas, especially opposition strongholds like the Eastern Kasai, where the governor has already declared a state of emergency, Western Kasai, South Kivu, Lubumbashi and Equateur. Splits within the army cannot be ruled out.

Urgent international and regional action is needed both to rescue the elections and to persuade Congolese leaders to refrain from violence. Neither will be easy. Widespread technical flaws and deliberate fudging makes revealing genuine results difficult, while Kabila’s contortion of democratic institutions leaves few avenues for elites to resolve disputes peacefully. Amid deep polarisation in Kinshasa, the two leading candidates appear reluctant to even to talk to each other, let alone accept defeat. But the following measures offer the best hope:

•The election commission must count ballots transparently, according to the Congolese election law, and in the presence of local and international observers – and publicly announce it will do so. It must publish results polling station by polling station, to allow for independent verification, both for presidential results and for the almost forgotten legislative contests.
•Authorities must explain clearly how political parties and observers can contest the results of any polling station. Those stations that returned suspicious results or where observers report irregularities should be subject to rigorous investigation – again in the presence of observers – with clear criteria applied when disqualifying ballots. Voters in areas where polling did not take place should be given the opportunity to vote.
•All Congolese leaders must avoid inflammatory language. Given that protests will almost certainly turn violence, opposition politicians should appeal immediately to their supporters to stay off the streets.
•If protests do occur, security forces must refrain from heavy handed responses – with clear instructions along those lines given by military and police commanders and by the president. Any violence should be subject to investigation by Congolese and international human rights groups, as well as the ICC, if appropriate.
•The UN, AU and EU should urgently dispatch a high-level team to mediate between factions. A power sharing deal should be avoided, but mediators should explore options for alternative dispute resolution or independent oversight of existing mechanisms – possibly under AU auspices and with international support – given distrust in the responsible Congolese institutions. Mediators must also devise a way to avert a constitutional crisis, with Kabila’s term officially expiring this week.
•In the meantime, the UN, donors and regional leaders must avoid statements that could legitimise a badly flawed vote and destroy what is left of their credibility in the Congo. They cannot paper over electoral flaws. No leader should be congratulated until all disputes are resolved.
•The UN should deploy additional peacekeepers to the western provinces and Kinshasa or risk abandoning its mandate of civilian protection. A bloodbath in the capital of a country hosting the world’s largest UN peace operation is unthinkable.
Beyond the immediate danger of results being rejected and violence escalating, a president with an illegitimate man.

carl

12-09-2011, 07:58 AM

I remember talking to one of the guys who guarded our house and office just after the election in 2006. He was a very reflective and dignified guy. When I asked what he thought about the election results he thought for a second and said if Kabila didn't do a good job, they would just vote him out in the next election. He really believed that.

I know that there was never much of chance that that would happen but it saddens me that his belief in the future has been dashed so soon.

M-A Lagrange

12-09-2011, 12:09 PM

US ambassador called the Independant National Electoral Commition to publish results in the most transparent way:

Ambassadeur des USA en RDC - J. Entwistle: « La publication des résultats des bureaux de vote assure la transparence du processus électoral»
http://7sur7.cd/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=28077:ambassadeur-des-usa-en-rdc-j-entwistle-l-la-publication-des-resultats-des-bureaux-de-vote-assure-la-transparence-du-processus-electoralr&catid=27:le-potentiel

USA Ambassador in DRC J. Entwistle: "polling stations results publication ensure electoral process transparancy"

Sorry, I couldn't find a link in english. (I checked the embassy site.:confused:)
This is a major move.

And Carl:
your guard was right. Congolese expressed themselves; they don't want Tshisekedi that much. What they want is Kabila out. :D

Stan

12-09-2011, 04:51 PM

President Joseph Kabila has won the Democratic Republic of Congo's (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16114824) election, provisional results show.

"The Independent National Electoral Commission certifies that candidate Kabila Kabange Joseph has obtained the simple majority of votes," said election commission chief Daniel Ngoy Mulunda.

On Thursday, he said the results had been delayed again in order to "assure the credibility" of the numbers.

In the eastern city of Goma, people started to celebrate as soon as the results were announced on national TV and radio, reports the BBC's Joshua Mmali in the city.

davidbfpo

12-09-2011, 11:41 PM

In a surprising move Congolese residents in the UK have protested noisly in Central London yesterday:
A group of more than 200 DR Congo demonstrators have caused an emergency evacuation of Oxford Circus Tube station in central London, British Transport Police (BTP) has said.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-16103029

Today there was a noisy protest in Birmingham, outside the BBC base; spotted on the local TV news, but not indexed as a report yet.

I don't recall the UK Congolese community being so active before.

M-A Lagrange

12-10-2011, 07:20 AM

Congo’s Kabila re-elected with 49 pct, even as opposition leader declares himself president

Columns of smoke smudged the sky above opposition neighborhoods where angry young men burned tires, sporadic shots pierced the air, and police wearing helmets and shin guards patrolled the streets. Across town in parts of Kinshasa loyal to Kabila, women cheered from balconies and supporters staged small victory parades across the wide boulevards.
“I reject these results, and in fact I see them as a provocation against our people. .... it’s scandalous and vulgar,” the opposition leader said by telephone late Friday. “We have done our own calculations, and I received 54 percent. To Kabila’s 26 percent. His term is finished. I am the president. It’s me that got the votes of the people.”
Tshisekedi said that he has asked his supporters to remain calm and has not yet given the order for them to flood the streets until he sees if diplomatic efforts led by the international community will change the situation.
Here, Tshisekedi got twice as many votes as Kabila. It’s difficult for people to understand how he could have lost, especially in the downtrodden neighborhoods where most of his supporters live, and where people in wheelchairs and women with eyes covered in cataracts stood in the rain for hours for a chance to give Tshisekedi their vote on Nov. 28.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/congos-defeated-opposition-leader-says-he-is-countrys-president/2011/12/09/gIQAgclQiO_story.html

In fact the problem is not Kinshasa. As Vital Kamerhe just demonstrated it in the hours following the results announcement, CENI data are extremely questionable.
According to CENI, in Katanga:
There has been 3 224 483 voters. Among those ballots 86 531 were blanc or non valid. Therefore valid ballots are: 3 137 952.
But if you take the scores of the candidates, you end in a total of 3 137 889 votes.
(http://www.ceni.gouv.cd/resultats.aspx link to CENI web site if you want to do the calculation)
Let’s face it: it’s too messy to be credible.
But worst, if international community is validating such a messy process... Then it's finish of the international community credibility as a whole. It's more than DRC elections that are a stacke here. It's the whole idea of democracy as a legitimate way of governance.

Stan

12-10-2011, 08:41 AM

Cops arrest Congolese protesters (http://www.torontosun.com/2011/12/06/congolese-protest-in-toronto-turns-violent)

Members of Toronto’s 10,000-strong Congolese joined others in cities around the world Tuesday in protesting to support opposition parties in the Democratic Republic of Congo and to demonstrate opposition to partial results in a Nov. 28 election that showed a lead for President Joseph Kabila.

Much safer to protest nowadays in a Western country - there are no Congolese military ;)

Back in the day, burning tires and firing weapons into the air was merely the norm. Activists calling for "Ville Morte" (dead city) would gauge their effectiveness with the local population and the Embassies would generate their own version of "tense streets". Seems the internet has taken protesting to an all new level.

We used to wonder if Tshisekedi had won back in the 90s where would we all be today. For those that have not witnessed what the opposition is capable of - Tshisekedi's methods are not far from that of Kabila's. Some of us were also convinced that Tshisekedi's ballots were rigged.

M-A Lagrange

12-10-2011, 10:48 AM

Cops arrest Congolese protesters (http://www.torontosun.com/2011/12/06/congolese-protest-in-toronto-turns-violent)
We used to wonder if Tshisekedi had won back in the 90s where would we all be today. For those that have not witnessed what the opposition is capable of - Tshisekedi's methods are not far from that of Kabila's. Some of us were also convinced that Tshisekedi's ballots were rigged.

Stan,

I agree on Tshisekedi, he is not better or worst than Kabila.

At this level what matters is not the results but the process and credibility of international community. The Financial Time has a very good article on this:

DRC opposition rejects Kabila re-election

“Peace will be precarious and the Congolese state will remain weak if
the young Congolese who courageously went to the polls find out that
bullets still matter more than ballots when it comes to power.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9f9991da-2287-11e1-8404-00144feabdc0.html

Those who believe now they have leverage on Kabila are just fooling themselves.

M-A Lagrange

12-11-2011, 01:38 AM

Carter Center: DRC Presidential Election Results Lack Credibility

Carter Center observers reported that the quality and integrity of the vote tabulation process has varied across the country, ranging from the proper application of procedures to serious irregularities, including the loss of nearly 2,000 polling station results in Kinshasa. Based on the detailed results released by CENI, it is also evident that multiple locations, notably several Katanga province constituencies, reported impossibly high rates of 99 to 100 percent voter turnout with all, or nearly all, votes going to incumbent President Joseph Kabila. These and other observations point to mismanagement of the results process and compromise the integrity of the presidential election. Candidates and parties have a limited time to submit any complaints to the Supreme Court, and tabulation for the legislative elections is ongoing.

The problems observed in the tabulation and announced results are compounded by inadequate access for observers at multiple compilation centers around the country and no official access to the national results center in Kinshasa. The Carter Center is therefore unable to provide independent verification of the accuracy of the overall results or the degree to which they reflect the will of the Congolese people.

Challenges in the results process were further evident in the CENI delays in announcing the results first for two days after the original date of Dec. 6 and then a second one-day delay to Dec. 9. Presidential candidates and the Congolese people are to be commended for waiting peacefully for the announcement of results, and the Center encourages all actors to maintain the same level of responsibility. It is also the responsibility of Congolese political actors and institutions to conduct their own examination of the election results and identify political solutions. The Carter Center is ready to assist in these processes if requested and appropriate.
http://www.cartercenter.org/news/pr/drc-121011.html

The next step: how to avoid thing to go out of control

Stan

12-12-2011, 09:33 PM

Kabila (http://allafrica.com/stories/201112122393.html) Admits Mistakes but Rejects Vote Criticism

"But compared to the elections in 2006 these elections were better," he said.

Kabila said he rejected accusations from international monitors at the Carter Center that his victory in the November 28 vote lacked credibility.

"What horrible plague are you fleeing from ?"

"Democracy !"

DEMONcratic Republic of Congo (http://www.rnw.nl/africa/article/demoncratic-republic-congo)

More at RNW...

M-A Lagrange

12-13-2011, 06:40 AM

Congo President Kabila Denies Reports of Election Fraud

Seated at a desk under a spreading tree, looking relaxed and with the broad Congo River flowing behind him, Mr. Kabila insisted Monday that there was no crisis in the country. Speaking in excellent English in this French-speaking country — he was raised partly in Tanzania — Mr. Kabila was dismissive of the longtime opposition leader’s claims.
“I thought he was going to call me to congratulate me,” Mr. Kabila said, smiling. But he issued a veiled warning to Mr. Tshisekedi: “We’ll call on him to respect the laws of the land.”
Mr. Kabila also brushed aside questions about widely reported government corruption in Congo, saying it was a universal problem. “Corruption exists anywhere and everywhere in the world,” he said.
At the end, the president got up from the desk, smiled and, as the reporters were dismissed, said, “Well, they’ve wasted my time.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/13/world/africa/congo-president-kabila-denies-reports-of-election-fraud.html?_r=2&hp

davidbfpo

12-13-2011, 10:30 PM

A first-hand report on the Congolese protest in Whitehall, London last week:http://mitchell-images-blog.blogspot.com/2011/12/democratic-republic-of-congo-is-country.html

The protesters believe that it is the western govt involvement in the country that has created what they see as a media blackout. They maintain that media exposure would highlight these dodgy goings on and lead to Kabila being deposed.....Firstly, Congolese protesters are quite unlike any I have encountered before.

M-A Lagrange

12-14-2011, 07:57 AM

A Crisis in the Congo
Why is the West so willing to look the other way when it comes to the Democratic Republic of the Congo's clearly flawed election results?
These days, nowhere are crises more predictable than in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. And yet, when they unfold as anticipated, Western policymakers and diplomats always seem caught off guard -- raising questions about the competence, willingness, and commitment of the Kinshasa-based diplomatic corps and the United Nations mission to discharge their responsibilities.
For reasons that elude Congolese analysts, Western diplomats feel more comfortable with Kabila, whom they see as the defender of stability and peace in Congo. But over the last decade of Kabila leadership, little has changed for the average Congolese -- who is worse off than he or she was in the previous decade. With a chronically weak state, Congo has consistently performed poorly on human development rankings placing at the bottom of most indexes. These same diplomats view Tshisekedi as intransigent and difficult, and often dismiss him as irrational. In private, they point to his inflexible positions and the statements he made last month in South Africa (declaring himself president) as signs of an unsuitable personality for the nation's highest office. But many Congolese see him as the father of the modern democratic movement. His partisans revere him as a messiah -- in part, no doubt, because he is everything that Kabila is not: He has no money, no militia, and no state machinery behind him.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/13/a_crisis_in_the_congo?page=0,1

Stan

12-14-2011, 08:04 AM

Hey M-A,
The truth is, there is no replacement for Kabila and the West doesn't want to try it again with Tshisekedi. We didn't want Etienne even in 1991 when he was still talking about democracy (coincidentally during social events and the US Embassy :wry: ).

The only way to bring back the original Congo is Belgian colonization and work for a living.

M-A Lagrange

12-14-2011, 01:07 PM

Hello Stan,

I agree with you: west does not want Tshisekedi. But one thing westerners should realise is that Congolese do not want Tshisekedi neither but they want even less Kabila.
Let's face it if US has the right to choose GW Bush, Italian to choose Berlusconi... Why congolese don't have the right to choose Tshisekedi. What they want is not Tshisekedi but a change.
And let's face it Tshisekedi team is not Tshisekedi, especially since he has Kamerhe on his side now.
;)

My point is leave Congo to the congolese. That's all. But I'm a dreamer.

M-A Lagrange

12-16-2011, 05:26 PM

Improving Governance in the Democratic Republic of Congo
Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
Subcommittee on African Affairs
ORAL Testimony
Anthony W. Gambino
Fellow, Eastern Congo Initiative

The Congo’s recent election clearly was fraudulent. The way in which the aftermath of these fraudulent elections is managed will affect every issue of interest to the United States in the Congo. The outcome will decide whether Congo, after badly stumbling, can regain a democratic path.

Absent a reasonable process, if President Kabila continues to function as head of the Congo, he governs without a shred of democratic legitimacy. That is not a formula for stability in the Congo or in central Africa as a whole. Such an outcome would be deeply counter to both the interests and values of the United States and would risk another humanitarian crisis and greater, prolonged conflict and instability in central Africa.

http://foreign.senate.gov/hearings/hearing/?id=09b8d742-5056-a032-5254-35f801010203

Other testimonies are interresting too

M-A Lagrange

12-16-2011, 11:15 PM

“We are deeply troubled by today’s ruling by the Congolese Supreme Court, which confirmed the results of the Congolese election commission despite widespread reports of irregularities. This was clearly not a well-run election, as reported by observers from the European Union, Carter Center, and Congolese Catholic Church. Congolese authorities must engage in a thorough and transparent review of the results that will shed light on whether irregularities were caused by a lack of organization or fraud, and the United States stands ready to provide technical assistance for such a review.
"We are increasingly concerned that the election irregularities are a setback for already weak systems of governance in Congo, and may further destabilize the DRC and lead to an escalation of violence. All sides should engage in dialogue about next steps and consider establishing a formal mediation process with the support of the international community. Wecall on President Kabila to direct his security forces to protect the Congolese people, and work with Mr. Tshisekedi to resolve their disagreements in a way that will restore credibility to the process. The U.S. stands with the Congolese people in their attempt to advance democracy and hope it can be achieved peacefully.”http://coons.senate.gov/newsroom/releases/release/senators-coons-isakson-react-to-congolese-supreme-court-decision-call-for-transparent-review-of-election-results

Stan

12-20-2011, 08:25 AM

M-A Lagrange

12-20-2011, 09:58 AM

Tshisekedi (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16243472) orders army to disobey Kabila

With the presidential inauguration literally taking place opposition leader Tshisekedi claims he will hold his inauguration on Friday. This will be his second go at this :eek:

International figures are keen to point out that this time around the West is screaming fowl play (while back in 2006 they backed the presidential candidate). More interesting are the local papers indicating that the Congolese just want to get it over with and move on.

Well the problem is no more the presidential election. Now legislative results are coming and frauds appear to be even bigger than for presidential elections. Legislative elections are more problematic because it is local and population is already not accepting the frauds. Several CENI employees have been arrested.
Fraudulent presidential election followed by fraudulent legislative elections... equal recepy for a disaster in the mid run.

KingJaja

12-20-2011, 09:44 PM

Well the problem is no more the presidential election. Now legislative results are coming and frauds appear to be even bigger than for presidential elections. Legislative elections are more problematic because it is local and population is already not accepting the frauds. Several CENI employees have been arrested.
Fraudulent presidential election followed by fraudulent legislative elections... equal recepy for a disaster in the mid run.

The problem is the credibility of democracy in Africa. We had the first round of democratisation in the early sixties (after independence), it gave birth to the likes of Obote and collapsed like a pack of cards. We tried military intervention, which gave rise to monsters like Idi Amin and kleptocrats like Mobutu and Abacha. Now we are back to democracy, and we are not making much progress.

We are going to try something we haven't tried before - the re-partition of artificial colonial boundaries to reflect ethnic realities. It is inevitable and may result in the shedding of a lot of blood, but it will be the major African story this century.

A few western thinkers like Thomas Barnett have accepted that this is inevitable. However most of the rest are in denial.

Mark my words.

Yurii_K

01-02-2012, 08:29 PM

Dear all,
I think that DRC anyway made a huge step forward. Even if there are some (a lot of) discrepancies and irregularities during the election process there would have been such things anyway if they do right or wrong during the preparation of elections. The main goal is achieved – the election is over and there is no country which would protest it. Otherwise they (other countries) could not perform better in the same conditions themselves.
Also another goal achieved – there is no war in DRC. The commanders of regiments left were they are and there is no change of power. Though the picture could alter a little bit after the parliament election result will be announced. Let’s see.

M-A Lagrange

01-09-2012, 08:32 AM

I think that DRC anyway made a huge step forward. Even if there are some (a lot of) discrepancies and irregularities during the election process there would have been such things anyway if they do right or wrong during the preparation of elections. The main goal is achieved – the election is over and there is no country which would protest it. Otherwise they (other countries) could not perform better in the same conditions themselves.
Also another goal achieved – there is no war in DRC. The commanders of regiments left were they are and there is no change of power. Though the picture could alter a little bit after the parliament election result will be announced. Let’s see.

Hopefully US are not following your advise and are sending electoral experts to review the presidential and legislative elections out come.
IMF already deceided to stop funding DRC because of those fraudulent elections. An interresting move, coming from such a conservative institution.

There is may be no full scale war in DRC yet but there are already a lot of small scale fights in the East between FDLR and Mayi-Mayi or FARDC. Time will tell but the story will not be nice and peacefull.

Stan

01-09-2012, 03:41 PM

There is may be no full scale war in DRC yet but there are already a lot of small scale fights in the East between FDLR and Mayi-Mayi or FARDC. Time will tell but the story will not be nice and peacefull.

Indeed, M-A, and not humanely.

Rwandan Rebels Kill Dozens of Civilians (http://allafrica.com/stories/201201050931.html) The Rwandan rebel group, Forces dmocratiques pour la libration du Rwanda (FDLR), killed 39 people on Monday and Tuesday in the Shabunda region of South Kivu, human rights groups have told Radio Okapi (http://fr.allafrica.com/stories/201201050245.html).

The groups reported that 30 people were killed in Luyuyu, among them a pregnant woman whose stomach was hacked open and her baby removed.

Eight were killed in Ngolombe and the village head of Kishenya was decapitated. Then depot of the aid agency, Action Solidarit, was also vandalized and medication destroyed.

A number of sources told Radio Okapi that the FDLR has promised to "shoot at everything that moves" on its way to capturing the entire Shabunda area.

The assailants reportedly said the attacks were reprisals against people for siding with youths who have organized themselves into vigilante groups to fight the rebels.

M-A Lagrange

01-18-2012, 08:06 AM

The conflict minerals that we use in our cellphone still finance the war in Eastern DRC. But US took the lead to fight against it!

In order for these initiatives to have a real impact in the Eastern Congo, the governance issues must be addressed, particularly feasibility, reliability and security problems. The lack of administrative capacity in the country, the integrity of the administration and the militarisation of production sites should take priority. From an industry perspective, international coherence is required to avoid distortion of competition. European and Asian companies should be subject to the same regulations as U.S. companies.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/key-issues/conflict-minerals-in-drc.aspx?ReturnID=%7B6952447B-48B0-4116-A99A-F7C9808EC50F%7D

M-A Lagrange

01-18-2012, 12:46 PM

Don't shoot the messenger, especially if he brings bad news.
Some in Kinshasa and elsewhere said that those who said that fraudulent elections would have bad consequences were just black crows... :D:cool:

First, there are rumors that the Congolese military is on the verge of splitting. Reportedly, the president’s circle is suspecting some military elements from the western parts of the Congo of having allied themselves with Kinshasa’s neighbor to the north, Congo-Brazzaville. Military units from the western region are believed to be colluding with the former Air Force Chief of Staff of the Democratic Republic of Congo, General Faustin Munene, who is accused of having masterminded a failed coup in Kinshasa more than a year ago and who has been in hiding in Congo-Brazzaville.
...
Second, there are fears of a rebellion. General Munene left Congo in October 2010 to allegedly link up with the thousands of former officers and soldiers of the “Forces Armées Zaïoises,” the army that was loyal to deposed dictator Mobutu Sese Seko. Munene is also suspected of having struck an alliance with the current Congolese army Chief-of-Staff, General Didier Etumba.
...
Third, since the beginning of the year, self-proclaimed president Etienne Tshisekedi has reportedly started promising to soon pay $150 to all military elements, no matter what the rank. The lack of salary for soldiers is a serious problem in the Congo. As recently as January 9, two army brigades in Bukavu, South Kivu protested a more than a three-month pay delay. Three soldiers and two civilians were injured. Given the destitution of many soldiers, it is not unlikely that some military elements could be motivated by the promise of pay to shift their loyalty to Tshisekedi – a scenario certainly worrisome to President Kabila as he begins his new five-year term amid ongoing tension over organized massive fraud cases.
http://www.enoughproject.org/blogs/military-subversion-congo

KingJaja

01-18-2012, 06:29 PM

If I am correct, the US Army is still training Congolese soldiers. What impact does this have on the current situation?

Stan

01-18-2012, 08:01 PM

If I am correct, the US Army is still training Congolese soldiers. What impact does this have on the current situation?

A good question and a sad answer - Nothing. How do you train a military without a salary, without having had a meal since yesterday and, could potentially make twice the amount of money without lifting a finger ?

It really doesn't matter who trains the Zairois. I did it in 1984 and continued to try along with the Belgians, Chinese, Egyptians, French, Germans, Israelis, and to some extent the South Africans before leaving.

The next generation is a direct result of war and rape. Where could one go from there :o

Stan

01-18-2012, 08:16 PM

Hey M-A,
Never recall anyone worried about Mobutu being reelected, or, Etienne coming to power. Seems most were just concerned with getting by the next day. The military pay and rations issue has plagued just about every African leader greedy for wealth and power.

I will wait for you to take power and I will join you in K-town as your American advisor :eek:

Why not ? Everybody else has done a great job of screwing things up til now !

Don't shoot the messenger, especially if he brings bad news.
Some in Kinshasa and elsewhere said that those who said that fraudulent elections would have bad consequences were just black crows... :D:cool:

M-A Lagrange

01-19-2012, 06:19 AM

I will wait for you to take power and I will join you in K-town as your American advisor :eek:
Yeah, let's start the independant state of Kasai again with Kananga as capital of the world! My program... Free diamonds for everyone. :D

More seriously, here is the link to the last expert panel report. To be read with attention. Sometimes it contradict itself between 2 chapters...;)
They are little more serious than enough and come to worrying conclusions too by the way.
http://www.un.org/sc/committees/1533/egroup.shtml

If I am correct, the US Army is still training Congolese soldiers. What impact does this have on the current situation?
Yes, the US army contracted a private security company to train 1 batallion and is trying to get a second one trained. But as Stan already mentioned it, it's a little hoppeless. For the reasons he gave: no money, no equipment, no effective chain of command, low motivation, high level of criminality, total impunity...
Last exercise was basically an air evacuation exercie with the Congolese Air Force (please do not laugh too loud Stan).

KingJaja

01-19-2012, 09:14 PM

A good question and a sad answer - Nothing. How do you train a military without a salary, without having had a meal since yesterday and, could potentially make twice the amount of money without lifting a finger ?

It really doesn't matter who trains the Zairois. I did it in 1984 and continued to try along with the Belgians, Chinese, Egyptians, French, Germans, Israelis, and to some extent the South Africans before leaving.

The next generation is a direct result of war and rape. Where could one go from there

So what's the point of the current training exercise? Is it to keep Samantha Powers and her people happy? To be seen to be doing something? What really is the rationale?

Stan

01-20-2012, 06:33 AM

So what's the point of the current training exercise? Is it to keep Samantha Powers and her people happy? To be seen to be doing something? What really is the rationale?

The difficult and short answer is: The State Department's Bureau of African Affairs (under the guise of "training and security enhancement" which normally is also in the (ahem... cough) mutual interests of the DRC). There's obviously a lot more to be gained :cool: than attempting to turn the Congolese military into a professional career path :rolleyes:

The decision to renew assistance to the DRC never made it to Power's although she is often quoted about the human tragedy in the Congo. She would in fact be a good start, but I doubt even she could turn off the suffering of the Congolese.

The really bad news however is just who won the contract to perform this training. I have already had my fill of "lowest bidder to a govt. contract" and the folks responsible for Liberia and now DRC already shafted my programs several years ago.

We cannot train nor turn off the problems associated with the Congolese military until some very basic necessities are financed and met with some serious thought. Everything I see and read about tells me we are back in 1991 - armed and hungry soldiers is a bad cocktail.

M-A Lagrange

01-22-2012, 01:20 PM

On 17 January, 4 officers, including 3 generals have been arrested in Rwanda over the accusation of traffiquing conflict minerals between DRC and Rwanda.

Rwanda: Top army officers arrested for 'indiscipline'

They are being investigated over "acts of indiscipline" concerning alleged business dealings in mineral-rich Democratic Republic of Congo.

One of those arrested is the military intelligence chief, who has also advised President Paul Kagame on security issues.

Rwanda has denied past accusations that it plundered DR Congo's minerals.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16619867

Some said that it was an excuse to arrest them as they were preparing a coup against president Kagame. Unfortunately, I cannot post any quote of the Rwandese press as the new paper I am refering has been censored.

Any ways this takes place just 2 weeks after 600 kg of Caseterit were stopped at Goma border by police and provincial minister accused high ranked FARDC and civilian administration to be involved.
This also takes place just after the UN expert panel released its report.

Conincidences you say? :rolleyes:

M-A Lagrange

01-23-2012, 11:43 AM

Congolese protesters rally in U.S. capitalProtesters rallied in Washington on Saturday to raise awareness of violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo following contested elections there in November.

They said they traveled from 25 states to deliver an urgent message to U.S. President Barack Obama.

"We need President Obama to help restore the leadership the Congo needs," said George Alula, president of the Movement of the Congolese Unity. He urged the international community to recognize opposition candidate Etienne Tshisekedi as the election's legitimate winner.
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/01/21/world/africa/washington-congo-protest/index.html?eref=rss_africa&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fedition_africa+%28RSS%3 A+Africa%29

Well, if only the congolese national political parties could be as good as their diaspora... :(

Stan

01-23-2012, 03:22 PM

Looks like the Congolese government just received a cool $ 10 million and $ 4.8 million has disappeared :eek:

Ex-NBA star caught in Gold Scam
(http://kinshasa-congo.com/kinshasa_news/)
NBA legend Dikembe Mutombo fell into a gold smuggling trap that saw millions of dollars handed over to a notorious Democratic Republic of Congo warlord, according to UN investigators.

The Mutombo case involves bags containing millions of dollars in cash, sacks of gold of dubious origin and intermediaries with false identities across East Africa.

According to a report by UN sanctions committee experts, all was seized at an airfield in DR Congo. The money ended up with Bosco Ntaganda, a militia leader wanted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court, and the gold in government vaults.

carl

01-24-2012, 09:52 PM

Hey M-A,...I will wait for you to take power and I will join you in K-town as your American advisor :eek:

Better late than never but can I come too?

M-A Lagrange

01-25-2012, 06:17 AM

Stan

01-25-2012, 06:32 AM

Sur Carl, you can join. But be aware that the project includes the delocalisation of all institutions in Kananga, just like in the old belgium times.
So we'll be sure none of the congolese politicians can escape. :cool:

And, Carl, we need a twin turboprop for short and quick landings :eek:

M-A,
Where are we going to put all those politicians ?

davidbfpo

01-25-2012, 06:52 AM

Stan asked:
Where are we going to put all those politicians ?

Ascension Island or West Falkland.

carl

01-25-2012, 06:57 AM

So we'll be sure none of the congolese politicians can escape. :cool:

If any of them make it into the bush, I knew a guy who was in good with the Pygmys. He could probably get us some good trackers.

carl

01-25-2012, 06:59 AM

And, Carl, we need a twin turboprop for short and quick landings :eek:

I can do that. In fact just so we keep in practice, that should be the norm.

Stan

01-25-2012, 07:00 AM

Stan asked:

Ascension Island or West Falkland.

No way, not Ascension David !
I intend to buy that island with all the diamonds that M-A gives away. We'll need a resort to visit once Carl "obtains" our Kingair :)

M-A Lagrange

01-25-2012, 12:09 PM

M-A,
Where are we going to put all those politicians ?

If they start being bad boys, we can still make them work in Tshikapa mines or in the pineapples fields... :D

No way, not Ascension David !
I intend to buy that island with all the diamonds that M-A gives away. We'll need a resort to visit once Carl "obtains" our Kingair

We also have to make sure the Virgin Islands are not too far, in case Tshisekedi attempt to size power. ;)

M-A Lagrange

02-01-2012, 06:50 AM

US, Rwanda plot to rout weakened FDLR
Col. Nzabamwita was not categorical whether the new development – FDLR’s flight northwards – could lead to a possible alliance between FDLR and elements of Uganda’s notorious Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) militia based further in the north of the DRC, but it is clear that such an alliance would cause more mayhem.
Amb. Walkley told reporters that: “We had a chance to discuss many issues that are part of my portfolio. We spent time discussing the armed groups particularly the threat constantly caused by the FDLR”.
He noted that in the last three months alone, around 400 FDLR combatants returned home.
“We are talking of military and non military civil activities against them. This is combined by a joint military punch that has scattered the FDLR who are now on the run. They are leaving their areas of operation in Walikale, in North Kivu, and are going further north to Lubelo and Beni areas,” the army spokesman noted.
Source: New Times, 31 Jan 12

Let's be serious for a seccond! FDLR and LRA meking an alliance? That's just crap to get US money.
Joseph Kony is no way making alliances with anyone, he is too crazy for that.
I would recommend a tied reading of the UN panel experts report, the last 2 ICG reports on LRA and the one on regional military cooperation. This will give to US special envoy a good understanding of the FDLR and LRA problematic with, in addition, an idea of what military cooperation is like in the sub region.
Not saying that LRA and FDLR are not 2 serious peace spoilers but they are not related and will never be. Even Baba Lade in CAR was complaining of fake LRA envoy sent to him for so called alliances.:eek:

Strickland

02-01-2012, 11:20 AM

We should do everything possible to distance ourselves from Paul Kagame. His name should only be referenced when answering game show questions asking - name a leader who was able to kill his way out of a problem, and then be embraced by the international community?

Stan

02-01-2012, 03:43 PM

Hey M-A !

Let's be serious for a seccond! FDLR and LRA meking an alliance? That's just crap to get US money.

And so they will (get lots of cash) just as Secretary Clinton promised :D

Secretary Clinton has tasked Ambassador Walkley (http://burundi.usembassy.gov/pr_120811.html) with ensuring that the United States provides all the support it can to help the Great Lakes region fulfill its potential and become a space of sustainable peace and security.

Joseph Kony is no way making alliances with anyone, he is too crazy for that.
I would recommend a tied reading of the UN panel experts report, the last 2 ICG reports on LRA and the one on regional military cooperation. This will give to US special envoy a good understanding of the FDLR and LRA problematic with, in addition, an idea of what military cooperation is like in the sub region.
Not saying that LRA and FDLR are not 2 serious peace spoilers but they are not related and will never be. Even Baba Lade in CAR was complaining of fake LRA envoy sent to him for so called alliances.:eek:

On the surface it seems AMB Walkley has the right credentials with many tours in Africa, but to think he will energize a military and civil attack on the FDLR with advice from COL Nzabamwita is a fools game.

Maybe he thinks the 100 US troops in Uganda are going to sweep Kivu :eek:

We should do everything possible to distance ourselves from Paul Kagame. His name should only be referenced when answering game show questions asking - name a leader who was able to kill his way out of a problem, and then be embraced by the international community?

You should have been around in the early 80s, then we could have had a really good game show. Kagame is harmless compared to the other dictators when it comes to killing one's way out of a mess.

jmm99

02-01-2012, 04:38 PM

just when I was about to call Gino to get him out of retirement and into a seat next to Carl - then a Blue Goosing they would go. :D:):D

Regards

Mike

M-A Lagrange

02-02-2012, 06:40 AM

just when I was about to call Gino to get him out of retirement and into a seat next to Carl - then a Blue Goosing they would go.
Regards

Mike

Mike,

I'm affraid you're right. I should not have left down the pink elephants hunt. :D

The actual operations against FDLR are just not the biggest success ever, despite an agreement from CIRGL members to strength their military cooperation.
The immediat result is 100 000 people on the road fleeing combats between FDLR and self-defense/proxy combats.
And most probably the worst humanitarian disaster since 2009 in the Kivu. (I know, kivu and humanitarian disaster sound redundent).

In terms of FDLR capacities reduction... Well several hight officers have been killed, as sadiki, but it's mainly due to a business disagreement. And FARDC just said that their primary objective is to free the mines! :eek:

M-A Lagrange

02-06-2012, 03:59 PM

Stan

02-06-2012, 04:19 PM

Quickly, I would like to share a feeling of non comprehension and astonishment about US policy in the Great Lakes.
Somehow, I feel lost about what the US are trying to do in the Kivu.
On one side we have Washington screaming that elections were flawed, non credible and must be, at least, recounted. On the other hand we have US diplomats shouting to who wants to hear it that they are 100% with DRC government to increase military cooperation to fight FDLR and other peace spoilers.

I mean, is there any logic in the US foreign policies?

Hey M-A,
I think the DRC is now on the radar screen, but the current actions in Kivu are from previously funded programs that are not too often shut off when we disagree with things like local election results and human rights violations.

All that said, the Ambassador has to make the call and shut down training and funding. Easier said than done.

This Testimony (http://www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/rm/2012/183083.htm) on 02 FEB titled U.S. Policy Toward Post-Election Democratic Republic of the Congo may be a little late but at least getting attention following the January Congolese in DC:

The U.S. and international community – foreign governments, international organizations, and NGOs – have contributed billions of dollars and thousands of advisors into the DRC over the years. To date, unfortunately, the GDRC has not shown the same commitment to reform, and we need to be clear: Without a strong and sustained commitment by the GDRC to democracy and human rights, little can be done that will be sustainable. However, the very fact that the elections have been so widely condemned may provide an opening to press for internationally accepted human rights standards and norms. Certainly, as Dr. Mendelson and Ambassador Yamamoto have testified, we will be pressing the GDRC to undertake effective reforms – not just with respect to elections, but with respect to the entire spectrum of human and civil rights.

M-A Lagrange

02-08-2012, 08:56 AM

Congo-Kinshasa: Tension Grips City Amid Revolt Rumours
BY JUAKALI KAMBALE, 4 FEBRUARY 2012
Kinshasa — Tension remains high in the Democratic Republic of Congo's city of Goma after rumours of an attempted revolt went public.
A military attempt against local authorities by disgruntled politicians was planned for Sunday, according to Mr Ernest Kyaviro, the spokesman of the governor of North Kivu province.
Two policemen and two bodyguards were killed in an operation to thwart the mutiny at the home of a member of the outgoing National Assembly.
Mr Bakungu Mitondeke residence was among those searched for firearms.
Police allegedly recovered some automatic machine guns, ammunitions and military uniforms from Mr Mitondeke's residence.
However, Gen Vainqueur Mayala, the military chief commander of the province, has denied knowledge of any such attempt in the province.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201202050022.html

Yesterday, the UDPS secretary General was arrested for few hours by secret police ANR while he was going to attend to a conference in Germany.

The pro Kabila press is all over the military cooperation between US and DRC. They just announced the training of a battalion by US military in Kinshasa.

Les Etats-Unis vont former un bataillon spécial à Kinshasa dans le cadre du renforcement de la coopération militaire RDC-USA
Les Etats-Unis comptent renforcer les capacités des Forces armées de la RDC avec la formation d’un bataillon spécial à Kinshasa. L’annonce a été faite par l’AFRICOM.
http://www.digitalcongo.net/article/81232
(I translate)
The US will train a special battalion in Kinshasa as part of the reinforcement of military cooperation between US and DRC
The US espect to reinforce FARDC capacities with the training of a special battalion in Kinshasa. The announcement was done by AFRICOM.

DRC government is increasing its pressure on political opposition. And in the same time, US army is developing DRC government military capacities (to repress political opposition to Kabila?). Under the cover that even if elections were fraudulent, it was a step in the good direction?????:confused:
I never thought that Kabila had so many dedicated friends in the US administration.

Stan, even Tom would have found this a little inappropriate. What’s going on?
I am sincerely not sure that increasing DRC governement military capacities will ease any of the SSR and JSR or even bring any peace in the Great Lakes.
The idea that dictatorship is better than weak democracy is just a stupid one. Look at the results in Ivory Coast and Senegal!

Stan

02-08-2012, 09:29 AM

Stan, even Tom would have found this a little inappropriate. What’s going on?
I am sincerely not sure that increasing DRC governement military capacities will ease any of the SSR and JSR or even bring any peace in the Great Lakes.
The idea that dictatorship is better than weak democracy is just a stupid one. Look at the results in Ivory Coast and Senegal!

Hey M-A,
This is something that the USG doesn't seem to comprehend well. When we teach African military, there's no telling what they will do with that training. In this case, the soldiers there are for:

The U.S. military, Ham said (http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=65664), has focused on facilitating intelligence, and in a State Department-led effort, U.S. personnel trained a battalion of the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s armed forces. Ham said the U.S. government was looking to increase support to the counter-LRA efforts by increasing the number of military advisors and trainers and training another battalion.

What should happen, is the Department of State (via the Ambassador) turns off the training. That, is a little easier said than done.

This is one of the things Tom and I had to constantly deal with - our image and the right thing to do. But, communicating problems is not always good for one's career path :rolleyes:

M-A Lagrange

02-08-2012, 02:56 PM

… militarily wise :rolleyes:

First: the DRC government analyse of the situation:

Insécurité à l’Est : Mwando en a parlé avec Meece
Le ministre congolais de la Défense nationale, Charles Mwando Nsimba, s’est entretenu lundi 30 janvier avec le chef de la Mission onusienne de "stabilisation" au Congo, le très controversé Roger Meece. L‘entretien s’est déroulé à l’état major général des FARDC (Forces armées de la RD Congo). Les deux hommes se sont contentés de constater ce que tout le monde savait. A savoir que la situation sécuritaire à l’Est est «préoccupante».http://www.congoindependant.com/article.php?articleid=7086
(I translate)
Insecurity in East : Mwando talk about it with Meece
The Congolese Minister of Defense, Charles Mwando Nsimba, had a talk this Monday 30 january with the head of UN stabilization mission in DRC, the very controversial Roger Meece. The meeting was hold at the FARDC HQ. The 2 men only came to the conclusion that everybody knows: security context in East is preoccupying.

Now the OCHA point of view:

OCHA/NORD-KIVU RAPPORT HEBDOMADAIRE AU 11 JANVIER 2012
Plus de 35 000 personnes seraient déplacées sur l’axe Walikale – Kibua suite aux affrontements armés
http://www.rdc-humanitaire.net/index.php/rapports-tous-les-rapports/rapports-hebdomadaires/1696-ochanord-kivu-rapport-hebdomadaire-au-11-janvier-2012

OCHA/NORTH KIVU Weekly Report 11 January 2012
Population displacement on Walikale-Kibua road could be over 35 000 individuals

Now the DRC Government response:

Nord-Kivu : les FARDC promettent de «nettoyer» les FDLR à WalikaleSelon radiookapi.net, le porte-parole de l’opération Amani leo, le colonel Sylvain Ekenge, a indiqué que des actions des forces loyalistes sont envisagées pour rétablir de l’ordre dans ce site minier.
«Face à la situation actuelle où il y a des affrontements entre les FDLR et les Maï-Maï Cheka, il y a des actions qui sont envisagées dans le secteur et on a pris toutes les dispositions pour que le secteur soit nettoyé des FDLR et des Maï-Maï Cheka. Et, on va ramener le calme dans le secteur de Omate pour permettre aux opérateurs économiques de Omate et Bisiye de vaquer librement à leurs occupations», a-t-il dit.
http://www.lepotentiel.com/afficher_article.php?id_edition=&id_article=119524
(Itranslate)
North Kivu : FARDC swear they will “clean up” Walikale from FDLRAccording to Radio Okapi (the UN radio station), the Amani Leo operation spoke man, colonel Sylvain Ekenge, has informed that actions by loyalist forces are under review to bring back order in this mining site.

“Actually there are combats between Mayi-Mayi Cheka and FDLR, actions are under review in the area and we took all the measures for this area to be cleaned up from FDLR and Mayi-Mayi Cheka. And we will bring back order and calm in the Omate sector for the economical actors from Omate and Bisiye to work freely.” He said.

Finally the result:

Nord-Kivu : les FARDC reprennent deux carrés miniers de Walikale
L’armée régulière congolaise (FARDC) a repris lundi 6 février le contrôle des carrés miniers de Bisié et Omate, dans le territoire de Walikale, au Nord Kivu, à l’issue de combats avec les miliciens Maï-Maï de Cheka. Ces deux localités étaient occupées depuis près d’une année par divers groupes armés nationaux et étrangers.
Deux combattants Maï-Maï ont été capturés lors de ces opérations qui entrent dans le cadre du nettoyage du secteur de Walikale par les FARDC.
http://radiookapi.net/actualite/2012/02/08/nord-kivu-les-fardc-reprennent-deux-carres-miniers-de-walikale/
(Itranslate)
FARDC take back 2 mining areas in Walikale
FARDC has taken back on Monday 6 February 2012 control over the mining sites of Bisiye and Omate in Walikale territory, in North Kivu, after combats with Mayi-Mayi Cheka. Those 2 localities were occupied since approximately a year by various national and international armed groups.
2 Mayi-Mayi combatants have been made prisoners during those operations that enter in the frame of Walikale pacification.

I think it is quite clear…
FARDC, in North Kivu, as UN experts panel did demonstrate, are under Bosco Ngatanga command. Bosco Ngatanga is a war criminal wanted by the ICC and, according to UN panel Experts, he is at the head of illegal mineral trade in North Kivu.

Now, AFRICOM is going to train those guys to be more efficient? Oh Boy!

This is one of the things Tom and I had to constantly deal with - our image and the right thing to do. But, communicating problems is not always good for one's career path
Stan, I know exactly what you mean and how it feels. :D

M-A Lagrange

02-09-2012, 12:45 PM

The analyses of DRC legislative elections by ICG:

DR Congo: Learning the Lessons
The political complexion of the National Assembly remains much the same but there are some subtle changes.
Whether the results are credible or not, they unquestionably reveal some major trends:

■the political landscape is more fragmented;
■the presidential camp has lost some ground but not lost its dominant position;
■the opposition has renewed its ranks without significantly improving its overall position;
■Congolese politics is divided along ethnic-provincial lines.http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/africanpeacebuilding/2012/02/09/dr-congo-learning-the-lessons/

Stan

02-09-2012, 01:32 PM

The analyses of DRC legislative elections by ICG:

Hey M-A,
A very good report ! This para in particular is intriguing:

The western donors remain hesitant. Despite their public criticisms of the election, their options range from the strong temptation to do nothing to a carefully weighed “review” of international engagement with the Kabila government. Although the western donors genuinely want to learn lessons from the 2011 elections, the least they can do is to consider how to avoid a repeat of the 28 November elections during the forthcoming provincial elections.

With all those new fractions in the majority, I can only wonder how many more black Mercedes will be ordered this year :D

M-A Lagrange

02-12-2012, 04:50 PM

UPDATE 1-Kabila aide dies, minister hurt in DRC plane crash
"Unfortunately I have to confirm the death of Katumba Mwanke and the pilot," spokesman Lambert Mende said by telephone.

"It's a very big loss, he was considered a pillar of the presidential majority." Mende said of Katumba Mwanke.

He added that Finance Minister Matata Ponyo Mapon and roving ambassador Antoine Ngonda were "heavily wounded" in the crash and Marcellin Cishambo Rohuya, governor of the local South Kivu province, was lightly injured.
http://af.reuters.com/article/drcNews/idAFL5E8DC3KG20120212?sp=true

La course au pouvoir has started as would say Alpha Blondy!

M-A Lagrange

02-17-2012, 09:57 AM

On 16 February 1992, Mobutu had the army shooting on the civilians peacefully demonstrating for more democracy in Zaire.
On 16 February 2012, Kabila had the police beating up the civilians peacefully demonstrating for more democracy…

Collectif des ONGDH de la RDC – Communiqué de presse : Attaques contre les paroisses catholiques et la brutalité policière
http://www.aeta-network.org/collectif-des-ongdh-de-la-rdc-communique-de-presse-attaques-contre-les-paroisses-catholiques-et-la-brutalite-policiere
(In french)
I translate :

- In the parish of Saint Joseph in Matonge Kalamu commune, Christians chanting hymns were joined by walkers from the parish of Saint Mary Goretti Kauka around 8 hours. Around 8:40, the National Congolese Police (PNC) began to intensively launch tear gas bombs into the precincts of the said parish;
- In the parish of Saint Raphael, on the Boulevard Lumumba in the town of Limete, judoka Munshi alias "Heat", the youth league of PRDP, the head of a group of youths armed with machetes, threatened to enter the enclosure to address the Christians;
- In the parish of St. Gabriel in Yolo south in the municipality of Kalamu, the police threw tear gas bombs to disperse the Christians who were in the precincts of the parish;
- At St. Kizito Parish in Kingabwa district and four trucks water launchers, two large trucks carrying policemen surrounded the church preventing movement of Christians;
- In the parish of St. Dominic Limete, the police threw tear gas bombs into the enclosure.

The brutality of the people was observed in all the starting points of walking.
- At the Parish of Saint Joseph Matonge, women were beaten in all around the parish. The office of Friends of Nelson Mandela for Human Rights has been violated by police looking for walkers. Several people were arrested including Abbots Okalema Placide, Mimbayi Bernard, Leon Matiti and two nuns;
- The Parish Priest St. Raphael and the Christians who were on University Avenue, were beaten and driven into the walls of their parish by the PNC;
- In the parish of St. Dominic de la Commune 13th Limete residential, Christians were beaten, arrested and taken in the 0076 Jeep 02 of the legion commanded by Colonel RIP Elvis. These include: Ms. Suzi, Paul Kitenge gentlemen, Bilomba François Constant and Kangudi;
- On the Avenue in Yolo Kimwenza-South Kalamu commune, the PNC was attacking passers-by. Robert Ilunga, Executive Director of the NGO Friends of Nelson Mandela for Human Rights (ANMDH) was brutalized and extorted his phone;
- At St. Benedict at 9 Lemba district, while the Christians were leaving the parish, the police fired tear gas bombs.

J Wolfsberger

02-17-2012, 10:48 PM

Sadly M-A, I think the killing will begin if and when the protesters refuse to be intimidated.

It always does.

Stan

02-18-2012, 08:01 AM

There has never been a single instance where the Congolese peacefully tried to express their political protests. In fact, they generally like the military and police involvement, as this is a means of blaming rape, pillage and plunder on the security forces while the civilians go about the same unabated.

To now even suggest that the DRC is not permitting some fundamental human right (just because they signed some treaty that the West deemed necessary to continue aid), is a joke.

The 92 demonstrations ended quickly with live fire and hand grenades. Using tear gas and a thump on the head is actually moving towards some sort of civility albeit 2 decades later. Progress in the DRC has never been fast paced and the mealy-mouthed Carter Center's statement "lacked credibility" was icing on the cake.

M-A Lagrange

02-18-2012, 03:04 PM

Well, the question is not to know if Kabila is different from Mobutu or worst than J-P Bemba or less credible than Tshisekedi... He is not!

The question is what progress did international community achieve in DRC.
And the response is close to 0! During last elections, international community has shown little if no interrest in making sure that what we (with our taxe money) finance is almost as it should.
Now DRC is stuck into a dictatoship by default because an handfull of people have no diplomatic imagination and even less political creativity.

Many said a weak Kabila is the best thing that could happen to DRC. Well, explain me how Kabila is weak now. Part from Katumba death, which is a good news for the financial markets, I do not see DRC going forward.

M-A Lagrange

03-01-2012, 07:05 AM

I don't know if that was part of AFRICOM initial plan but it's a nice and creative way to reorient military cooperation.

L’armée américaine renforce les capacités des FARDC en agriculturehttp://www.lepotentiel.com/afficher_article.php?id_edition=&id_article=120992
US army reinforce FARDC capacity for agriculture

Now the remaining question is: what mettric to be applied increase of production per hectares or decrease of rapes per hectares? :wry:

M-A Lagrange

03-08-2012, 08:32 AM

Let me introduce a great woman who does great job in Kinshasa:
http://cartercenter.org/news/multimedia/PeacePrograms/ProtectingHumanRightsintheDRC.html

At least she is doing something cause on the otherside, MONUSCO keeps on with stupid useless strategy and tactical deployment:
DR Congo: UN peacekeeping mission receives tactical helicopters from Ukraine
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?&&Cr1=congo&Cr=democratic&NewsID=41480

With a forest cover between 30 and 10 m high (minimum) in most part of the places militias are active, and a visibility through vegetal cover close to 0… Part from preventing MONUSCO to engage anything (and then suffer casualties) I do not see what progress it will bring.
At least Sophie (the woman from Carter Center) is doing something useful and cost effective. :D

Stan

03-08-2012, 02:52 PM

Stan

03-08-2012, 03:06 PM

With a forest cover between 30 and 10 m high (minimum) in most part of the places militias are active, and a visibility through vegetal cover close to 0… Part from preventing MONUSCO to engage anything (and then suffer casualties) I do not see what progress it will bring.

Assuming someone can maintain these Russian dinosaurs, they will be used to fly diplomats high over the forest to see the razor backs :eek:

At least Sophie (the woman from Carter Center) is doing something useful and cost effective. :D

Not a very convincing video. Staying in Kin and talking the Congolese government to death will not save anyone. Maybe she should consider paying the Guard Civil or soldiers not to rape. That may actually work while they get their potatoes planted :D

carl

03-08-2012, 03:30 PM

Stan:

The story didn't say a word about who would maintain those Hinds. Nor did it say who would fly them, pay the bills nor how they would be incorporated into the organization. Just more additions to the fascinating collection of old derelict airplanes that sit off the ramp or runway of so many DRC airports I suspect.

Stan

03-08-2012, 04:00 PM

M-A Lagrange

03-09-2012, 11:55 AM

Carl, Stan,

You're too critical. I just told you those choppers will be used to hunt down negative forces who hide in the forests of South and North Kivu. :D
To hunt down LRA, MONUSCO already deployed special ops troops from Jordania... :rolleyes:
All this make sens: desert trained special forces and air power to stop militia in forest terrain... It does make sens if you look at the big picture. And the big picture is being capable to say: we did all what we could, now we have to go cause nothing is happening anymore. The fact that you do exactly what is not relevent is way out of considerations in such case. :D

M-A Lagrange

03-14-2012, 02:49 PM

Lubanga Guilty of Use of Child Soldiers

Today, International Criminal Court (ICC) judges in The Hague delivered the Court’s first verdict—a finding of guilt against former Congolese warlord Thomas Lubanga.

Prosecutors accused Lubanga of the war crimes of conscripting, enlisting, and using children under the age of 15 years for combat purposes while he served as political head of the Union of Congolese Patriots (UPC) rebel group in the Ituri region of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Lubanga denied all allegations against him, insisting that he gave orders for children not to be involved in combat and that prosecutors had influenced witnesses to lie against him.

The ICC judges ruled that the prosecution proved beyond reasonable doubt that Lubanga is guilty of the crimes charged. Judge Adrian Fulford, Presiding Judge of the Trial Chamber, in delivering the verdict said that there was reasonable evidence to believe that Lubanga was involved in a recruitment drive for his UPC rebel group and that such drive included conscripting children and using them for combat purposes. The judges also found that Lubanga personally used children as his bodyguards.
http://www.lubangatrial.org/2012/03/14/lubanga-guilty-of-use-of-child-soldiers/

For a good news, that's a dam good news. Ocampo almost f---k up the procecutor work but in the end justice prevail!
:D:D:D

Stan

03-14-2012, 04:43 PM

M-A,
Indeed a victory for humanity ! Perhaps the end to Union des Patriotes Congolais and Forces Patriotiques pour la Liberation du Congo :wry:

So, we just have 9,999 more to go with a few Zairian politicians ?

What to do with all those children that know how to employ firearms better than some African military, and have been professionally trained to rape - from life experiences ?

M-A Lagrange

03-19-2012, 08:04 AM

Well, this is not going to happen before a while but YEAH! Bosco "Terminator" Ngatanga is back under thespot lights.

OK North Kivu provincial government already said loud what Kinshasa is wispering: not the right time, will never be and we decided that for the sake of our alledgely corrupted regime we choose "peace over justice".

The last part is even funnier as there is no peace in the Kivu right now! Uganda and UN agencies just warned that there are nearly 100 000 civilians who fled DRC since the begining of the year, at a rate of 40 per day and that return from Uganda to DRC could be stoppped.
This, thanks to an anti FDLR offensive conducted under Rwanda command which is basically targetting APCLS mining sites and not the FDLR.

So yes a good news for Humanity but the road still to go is long...

M-A Lagrange

03-19-2012, 02:58 PM

UN-backed Congolese army drive could displace 100,000 people, analysts warn
The Guardian, Fri 16 Mar 2012 15.12 GMT
UN peacekeeping troops are backing a Congolese army drive against jungle-based rebel groups that is expected to displace at least 100,000 people and trigger a new wave of instability and human rights abuses across war-ravaged eastern Congo, aid workers and independent analysts have warned.
The new offensive by 5,400 troops of the Democratic Republic of Congo army (FARDC), largely unreported until now, began in South Kivu province, bordering Rwanda and Burundi, on 15 February and is being extended into North Kivu, bordering Uganda, this month.
http://m.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/16/un-congolese-army-offensive-displace?cat=world&type=article

The only problem is that FARDC do not fight against FDLR... But that's probably because I do not understand anything to the military stuff and strategy. Epecially in mining areas. :cool:

Stan

03-19-2012, 03:12 PM

Hey Marc !

Is this guy really serious :D

"The UN is being sucked in and the new offensive risks making things worse,"

Then of course we do have attack helicopters that will protect the Congolese from their own army :eek:

Monusco says it is screening the Congolese army soldiers it will work with to try to ensure joint operations do not include any former human rights abusers.

So, out of the 5400 troops to be screened, just how many will still be in the operations once the vetting process is done ?

The kickback culture is everywhere

I think this one is a strong candidate for the SWC phrase of 2012 :)

M-A Lagrange

03-19-2012, 07:39 PM

Hey Marc !

Is this guy really serious :D
Yes he is,I was told. The offensive is actually going on. But from FDLR they moved to APCLS (financially more profitable). And Uganda already is welcoming 40 refugees a day...

Then of course we do have attack helicopters that will protect the Congolese from their own army :eek:
:rolleyes:

So, out of the 5400 troops to be screened, just how many will still be in the operations once the vetting process is done ?
Actually MONUSCO conducts vetting based on the report they did on War crimes and Crimes against Humanity, they have a huge data base.
Don't forget that support is only food and fuel. So I believe it will just turn into more crimes and a longer data base...

M-A Lagrange

03-20-2012, 06:12 PM

The report of OHCHR on human rights abuses in DRC between 26 november and 25 december 2011 has ben released today.

A. Violations of the right to life
13. Between 26 November and 25 December 2011, the team documented 33 cases of civilians killed in Kinshasa by members of the defense and security forces, 22 of them being shot. The number of deaths could be much higher as the team faced many difficulties in documenting the allegations of violations of the right to life that were reported. Thus, the team
was unable to confirm several allegations

B. Violations of the right to physical integrity
23. Between 26 November and 25 December 2011, 83 civilians were wounded, 61 of them were shot, among which one PNC agent. Other people were victims of cruel, inhuman or degrading treatments.

The human rights violations listed above have been attributed by victims and witnesses to members of the GR, PNC officers and its specialised units, in particular LENI, GMI and the criminal investigation brigade, as well as to armed men in civilian clothes who fired live ammunition at demonstrators and simple passers-by and repressed demonstrators protesting against the elections using violence and disproportionate use of force. The name Colonel Kanyama, PNC commander in the Lukunga district (Lufungula Camp) in Kinshasa and nicknamed “death spirit” by Kinshasa inhabitants, was in particular cited in testimonies as a key team leader responsible for removing and getting rid of the bodies of the victims killed.
According to concurring testimonies, these groups arrived in “a PNC vehicle from which officers fired tear gas; the vehicle was followed by a dilapidated vehicle from which marksmen in civilian clothes fired at demonstrators, and then a covered lorry with body collectors”.
Moreover, FARDC soldiers circulating throughout the city of Kinshasa on 26 November 2011 and on 9, 10 and 11 December 2011 also committed arbitrary arrests, abductions and violations of the right to life and physical integrity.
http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/ZR/ReportDRC_26Nov_25Dec2011_en.pdf

M-A Lagrange

03-28-2012, 08:11 AM

US envoy lauds DRC forces after UN report on rampage

The US is “disappointed” by the conduct of that voting, Ambassador Walkley said last week. But “the presidential election is over,” he added. “That’s the reality, and we have to deal with realities.”
“Our focus is on the future,” the special envoy said, explaining that the US seeks assurance that upcoming provincial elections “will not see a repetition of mistakes made in the previous election.”
Ambassador Walkley offered a generally positive assessment of the DRC’s trajectory under Kabila’s rule.
The country has made “tremendous progress on the diplomatic front,” he said, citing “increased economic and security co-operation with its neighbours.”
The US is working to help professionalise Congo’s police, he added. Significant improvement, however, “is not going to be reached overnight,” Ambassador Walkley said.http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/US+envoy+lauds+DRC+forces+after+UN+report+on+rampa ge/-/2558/1372774/-/jmnpvn/-/index.html

I do not know what tremendous progress on the diplomatic front mean in Washington but on the ground this means:
- 1.7 million Internally Displaced People (IDP) in only 3 provinces; with a special mention for the 2 Kivu where, according to OCHA, you have more than 1 million IDP. Just yesterday, 9 900 people had to flee their homes because of fighting…
- Transparency international: 55% of collected taxes diseape in a country where corruption is done in open sky,
- World Bank Doing business report 2012: DRC ranked 178. In 2011 DRC was ranked 176.
- Global Peace Index: DRC is the third most dangerous country in the world.
And about DRC security forces progress: just see the HCHR report.

Then let’s talk about conflict minerals:
Use of ‘Conflict Minerals’ Gets More Scrutiny From U.S.

The Dodd-Frank law on conflict minerals is already having an effect in Eastern Congo, damping or halting production at many mines even before the disclosure regulations for companies are in place.
“It is causing, I would say, a sort of embargo on traders and diggers in Eastern Congo,” Serge Tshamala, an official at the Embassy of the Democratic Republic of Congo. “The longer it takes the S.E.C. to come up with guidelines, the worse it is for our people.” Mr. Tshamala and other Congo government officials met with the agency’s staff members in June, urging them to speed completion of the regulations. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/20/business/use-of-conflict-minerals-gets-more-scrutiny.html?pagewanted=all

Yeah, I really feel bad for the member of DRC government. They just announced they want to review the mining code and some crazy hippies are trying to make their life hard.
Just for the sake of saying it: last time the mining code was reviewed (10 years ago) it generated 100 millions (at least) of backshich paid directly by mining companies, hand to hand, to some officials…

It is not the longer it takes for the SEC commission to come with a guideline that is affecting the people in DRC. It is the will to not conduct an SSR and discipline FARDC which is affecting the people. It is the incapacity of the DRC government to actually govern the country that is affecting the people…

Sometimes, I feel like hearing America snoring…

Stan

04-06-2012, 08:07 AM

Congo's 'Terminator' troops defect (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17629500)

The soldiers are loyal to former rebel leader Bosco Ntaganda, who is wanted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court.

The situation in the eastern DR Congo city of Goma, where the troops were based, is said to be tense.

Marshal Murat

04-11-2012, 02:43 AM

Sometimes you get more money working for the enemy than for the government, what can you do?

M-A Lagrange

04-15-2012, 07:40 PM

Mutinies in the East: beyond the Terminator
http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/africanpeacebuilding/2012/04/13/mutinies-in-the-east-beyond-the-terminator/

Let's hope this will go further than a man to be turned into an opportunity.

M-A Lagrange

05-31-2012, 01:12 PM

Congo probes alleged Rwandan support for rebelsGOMA, Democratic Republic of Congo (Reuters) - Authorities in Democratic Republic of Congo are investigating allegations that neighboring Rwanda is recruiting and training fighters in support of a new armed movement in its troubled eastern borderlands, a government spokesman said on Monday.
The British Broadcasting Corporation, citing a confidential United Nations document, reported earlier on Monday that among the defectors from the newly formed militia were at least 11 Rwandan nationals who claimed to have been recruited in Rwanda.http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-05-28/news/sns-rt-us-congo-democratic-rwanda-rebelsbre84r0ou-20120528_1_nkunda-congo-kinshasa

Well, for those in the field it’s not a big news. Even if it has to be taken with caution, they have been recruited in Rwanda does not mean by Rwanda, this demonstrates the crisis in North Kivu goes further than just a manhunt.

M-A Lagrange

06-05-2012, 07:07 AM

DR Congo: Rwanda Should Stop Aiding War Crimes Suspect

Field research conducted by Human Rights Watch in the region in May 2012 revealed that Rwandan army officials have provided weapons, ammunition, and an estimated 200 to 300 recruits to support Ntaganda’s mutiny in Rutshuru territory, eastern Congo. The recruits include civilians forcibly recruited in Musanze and Rubavu districts in Rwanda, some of whom were children under 18. Witnesses said that some recruits were summarily executed on the orders of Ntaganda’s forces when they tried to escape.

Providing weapons and ammunition to Ntaganda’s mutiny contravenes the United Nations Security Council arms embargo on Congo, which stipulates that all states shall “take the necessary measures to prevent the direct or indirect supply, sale or transfer, from their territories or by their nationals […] of arms and any related materiel, and the provision of any assistance, advice or training related to military activities […] to all non-governmental entities and individuals operating in the territory of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.”

“Permitting Ntaganda to move in and out of Rwanda without fear of arrest sends a message that Rwanda is not serious about helping deliver justice to victims of the war crimes he and his troops have committed,” Van Woudenberg said. “Rwanda’s allies should insist that Rwanda help end impunity in the region, not encourage it.”

A number of officers who joined Ntaganda’s mutiny, including Colonel Makenga, Colonel Ngaruye, Col. Innocent Zimurinda and Col. Innocent Kayna, have past records of serious human rights abuses in eastern Congo. Human Rights Watch, UN human rights monitors, and local human rights organizations have documented ethnic massacres, torture, abductions, widespread sexual violence, and forced recruitment of children committed by these individuals while they were rebel group commanders or officers in the Congolese army.
http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/06/03/dr-congo-rwanda-should-stop-aiding-war-crimes-suspect-0

The message is simple and clear: there are no progress in DRC since 2009 and CNDP redition.

M-A Lagrange

06-07-2012, 02:16 PM

The United States is concerned by the continued mutiny of officers and soldiers formerly integrated into the armed forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and now operating in North Kivu province as an armed group under the name M23, and by recent reports of outside support to M23.

We support the Congolese government’s efforts to discourage further defections and to bring to justice alleged human rights abusers among the mutinous forces, including Bosco Ntaganda. These efforts are an essential step toward developing a disciplined and unified Congolese army and bringing a sustainable peace to the DRC.

The United States also reiterates its support for the international community’s comprehensive approach to disarming and demobilizing the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a violent armed group responsible for atrocities against civilians in the DRC’s eastern provinces and whose leaders participated in the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. We support ongoing efforts to hold FDLR leaders accountable for their atrocities, and we urge FDLR soldiers and dependents to present themselves to Congolese or UN authorities for disarmament and repatriation.

We encourage the DRC, its neighbors, and its partners to work together to prevent M23, the FDLR, and all other armed groups from receiving outside support in contravention of the UN Security Council’s arms embargo on non-governmental entities and individuals operating in the DRC.

The United States also strongly supports the United Nations peacekeeping mission in the DRC, MONUSCO, in particular its active efforts to assist the Congolese government in protecting civilians displaced or threatened by clashes between government forces and armed groups.

Link: http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/06/191902.htm

MONUSCO mandate should be soon discussed in NY...

M-A Lagrange

06-12-2012, 05:46 AM

So ICG published an open letter addressed to the UNSC and MONUSCO SRSG.

Open Letter to the United Nations Security Council on the Situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo

History is again repeating itself in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). There is a risk of serious escalation of violence and the United Nations Stabilization Mission in the Congo (MONUSCO) is failing in its core mandate of stabilisation and protection of civilians. This month renewal of MONUSCO presents a vital opportunity for the Security Council to review its strategy in the DRC.

Eastern Congo is again rapidly destabilising with the defection of Bosco Ntaganda from the Congolese army and the formation of the M23 Movement, another Tutsi-led rebellion allegedly supported by Rwanda. The government, weakened by presidential and legislative elections last November that were widely recognised as deeply flawed, is seizing the opportunity to please the international community by at last pursuing the capture of Ntaganda. President Joseph Kabila seems to be gambling that this is an opportunity to break the parallel structures maintained by the Congrs national pour la dfense du peuple (CNDP) within the army, and to remobilise domestic support around anti-Rwanda sentiment by pursuing a military defeat of the M23. In addition to the fragmentation of the army and new fighting between the Forces armes de la Rpublique dmocratique du Congo (FARDC) and ex-CNDP elements, various Mai-Mai groups have expanded their reach and the Forces Democratiques de Liberation du Rwanda (FDLR) remains a persistent, if diminished threat, as the FARDC fails to control territory.

The stabilisation strategy underpinned by MONUSCO was centred too heavily on an expectation that the 2008-2009 rapprochement between DRC and Rwanda was enough to contain the conflict in the Kivus. The bilateral agreement was based on President Kabila's willingness to integrate Rwanda proxy CNDP forces into the army, but the strategy was short-sighted as it made no provisions for addressing the underlying causes of conflict beyond Rwanda security objectives. The current mutiny underway in the Kivus is perhaps the clearest evidence to date of how little progress has been made in stabilisation. The 2008 and 2012 crises appear remarkably similar, including their ethnic dimension, reported support from Rwanda and the negative impact on civilians, including displacement and potential for increasing ethnic tensions at the community level. These crises are symptoms of unresolved regional and local conflicts over access to land and resources, as well as a failure to achieve structural reform within the security sector, poor governance and non-existent rule of law, and the inability to address the sources of financing for armed groups, end impunity and extend state authority, including through decentralisation.

In this context, it would be a mistake if the Security Council seeks to make only minor adjustments to the current course in renewing MONUSCO mandate. Without a new approach and re-engagement by the Security Council, MONUSCO risks becoming a $1.5 billion empty shell. http://crisisgroup.be/mail/open-letter-to-unsc/open-letter-to-unsc.html

Let see what will be UN decision. But this shows that since Tom and Stan times in DRC nothing has really changed.
There is a need for a new deal with Rwanda in which Rwanda development is not based on a colonel (or a general) on a hill in neigbouring country.

M-A Lagrange

06-12-2012, 09:35 AM

DRC: “If you resist, we’ll shoot you”: The Democratic Republic of the Congo and the case for an effective Arms Trade Treaty http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/info/AFR62/007/2012/en
An excellent report, extremely detailed, highlighting the complex commercial relations between DRC and its weapons and ammunitions suppliers. Among those suppliers you will find USA, South Africa, Switzerland, Egypt, France, Ukraine, China… All the usual suspects.

Also from ENOUGH, additional advocacy for a better mandate to MONUSCO:

MONUSCO—Protection of Civilians: Three recommended improvementsAlthough civilian protection is stated to be the highest priority of the United Nations peacekeeping mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo, MONUSCO, the mission continually struggles to fulfill this mandate. Overall, the failure of the U.N. to deal with the FDLR, as a major factor in regional instability, allows for the eastern Congo crisis to fester. The optimal longer term alteration in MONUSCO’s mandate would be to empower and support it, in coordination with other actors in the region, to end the FDLR threat along the lines of the Ituri “Artemis” model. Given MONUSCO’s current mandate on civilian protection, however, this policy brief is focused only on making the existing operation a more successful one.http://www.enoughproject.org/publications/monusco%E2%80%94protection-civilians-three-recommended-improvements

And finally the dual between DRC and Rwanda is officially on as Lambert Mende, DRC government speaker and information minister, has openly accused Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebel movement.

DRC Government Rules Out Talks With Rebels
DRC Information Minister Lambert Mende says several hundred M23 combatants have been recruited recently in Rwanda.

Mende says the DRC government condemns the inactivity - or worse - of the Rwandan authorities in the face of these serious infringements of the DRC’s peace and security.
He also says the M23 had formed alliances with other armed groups, including the Rwandan FDLR rebels who are operating on Congolese territory.http://www.voanews.com/content/drc_government_rules_out_talks_with_rebels/1205957.html

And the Rwanda answer:

Rwanda: DRC Should Address Its Own ProblemsThe Rwandan government has demonstrated commitment to a peaceful DRC - first, by helping end the previous conflict when it successfully mediated between Kinshasa and the CNDP rebels in 2009, and then actively and openly engaging the DRC to try and find a peaceful settlement of the renewed hostilities.
Ever since the war broke out more than a month ago, Kigali was not only disappointed but responded immediately, as a responsible and concerned neighbour, by organising a series of high-level political and military meetings between the two countries to help contain the situation. Agreements were reached and a joint plan of action drawn.
Unfortunately, Kinshasa has turned around and sought to stab its partner in the back by embracing false rumours and baseless speculation, even as both sides were just about to release results from a joint verification team.
Nonetheless, DRC can still save the situation. It is never too late to make peace. First, Kinshasa needs to acknowledge that the issues in North Kivu are their own and not anyone else's. They should openly engage with anyone who is genuinely willing to help address the issue. Looking around for scapegoats won't provide the answers.http://allafrica.com/stories/201206120055.html

My conclusion remain the same as in the previous post... And the ones before.

J Wolfsberger

06-12-2012, 11:19 AM

M-A,

The telling observation (from a few posts back) was "... remobilise domestic support around anti-Rwanda sentiment ..."

To what extent is anti-Rwanda/Tutsi propoganda/agitation/sentiment/whatever-we-call-it nothing more than an effort at distraction from internal DRC problems? And if that's all it is, doesn't that distraction make problems worse by further inflaming the situation in the Kivus?

M-A Lagrange

06-12-2012, 01:07 PM

John,

The anti Rwanda sentiment exist, it would be stupid and foolish to ignore it.
I believe, as I said previously, that internal problems are at least 50% of the issue. But that said, it is also clear that Tutsi/Rwandophone community in DRC and Rwanda did prepare something.

Among M23 revendications there are:
- better ranks in FARDC for exCNDP,
- better pay,
- priviledged treatment,
- not being deployed out of the Kivu,

All this was partly done by Kinshasa. Therefore you cannot avoid the feeling that there is something else behind. And since DRC/Rwanda 2009 agreement are secret, this opens the door to any crazy theory.

In addition, the proof of recruitment in Rwanda by M23 or Bosco are quite strong and difficult to put asside. (It is not only HRW and UN who have such testimonies and other proof).

Personaly, I do not see the benefit for Rwanda in starting another rebellion in DRC.
Facking a rebellion to put Bosco Ntaganda aside would have make sens. Now it just looks like Rwanda is trying to solve its internal problems (overpopulation, food production, energy...) by inflaming the Kivu. Especially since refugees returns from Rwanda started to create problems in DRC.

I think that UN should have a stronger mandate and especially a stronger obligation to implement their mandate in terms o PoC and political dialog. If FARDC infiltration by Rwanda through CNDP has been/is an issue; MONUSCO infiltration by Kabila is also an issue. Both do not help in solving the crisis.

Hope this answered you question.

Sincerely

M-A

M-A Lagrange

06-14-2012, 01:05 PM

Maximum Sentence Mooted for DR Congo's Lubanga
Former rebel leader Thomas Lubanga, who was convicted of conscripting child soldiers to fight in a five-year war that killed some 60,000 people, should get the Hague court's maximum sentence of 30 years, prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo says.
http://allafrica.com/view/group/main/main/id/00017380.html

M-A Lagrange

06-17-2012, 09:53 AM

but you can't fool all the people all the time

DR Congo: Security Council deplores recent mutiny, killing and abuse of civilians

“The Members of the Security Council expressed strong concern about the recent developments in the Kivus and the deterioration of the security and humanitarian situation resulting in significant flows of displaced persons and refugees,” the 15-member body said in press statement.

They strongly condemned the mutiny of officers and soldiers, formerly integrated into the DRC armed forces (known by the French acronym FARDC) and now operating in North Kivu as an armed group under the name M23.

They called on all countries in the region to actively cooperate with the Congolese authorities in demobilizing the M23 and all other armed groups, and preventing them from receiving outside support in contravention of the Council’s sanctions regime. They also called for a full investigation of credible reports of outside support to the armed groups.

Let's wait and see the Rwanda reaction. But sounds from Kinshasa are not good...

M-A Lagrange

06-18-2012, 09:38 AM

Mutineers seize territory in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo
"It looks as though [M23] have taken four or five villages and what I've heard is that the army is planning an offensive to take the positions back," Alex Essome, a spokesman for the UN's peacekeeping mission in provincial capital Goma told Reuters.

A spokesman for M23 said the group had inflicted heavy losses on government troops and seized large quantities of arms during fighting on Thursday, although this could not be independently verified.

Colonel Vianney Kazarama, who is leading the rebels in the area, said his group would consolidate their new positions and repel any counteroffensive. "If they attack us again, we'll chase them off," he said.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/15/democratic-republic-of-congo-rebels-seize-land?newsfeed=true

More surprisingly: a member of the UNSC is preventing the DRC Group of Experts to publish their mid term report with all the details on Rwanda backing up M23.

Fighting in the Kivus divides the UN Security Council

Now the diplomatic focus is shifting to New York, where, in response to the allegations of Rwandan involvement, the UN Security Council called yesterday for a "full investigation of credible reports of outside support to the armed groups."

This statement was more than puzzling. At the same time at the Chinese president of the council signed the statement, the UN Group of Experts was in the process of submitting its interim report, which reportedly includes investigations into these very allegations. According to diplomats working for Security Council members, one of their colleagues is threatening to obstruct the publication of the report in the coming week. The justification given for this would be that the submission of the report flouted procedural rules, but the diplomats I spoke to pointed to larger, political disagreements linked to the allegations of Rwandan involvement in the eastern Congo.
http://congosiasa.blogspot.com/

the mysterious case of the misisng GoE report
Making things even more bizarre, the Security Council on Friday released a statement condemning the mutiny and calling for investigation into "credible reports" of outside groups funding the crisis. As analyst Jason Stearns noted in a tweet on Saturday, why is the Security Council asking for an investigation while blocking the one the GoE already prepared for them?

If the motivation for withholding the annex is political, then it's easy to see why the GoE is fighting behind the scenes to include it; the GoE's mission has never been to bow to the political whims of anyone. Their purpose is to collect and analyze facts. If we've reached a day where facts are problematic for the United Nations, then we are in real trouble indeed.
http://texasinafrica.blogspot.com/

Let say that after asking for a serious enquiery, some may have changed their mind...
Strange that it leaks through 2 US citizen DRC rexearchers/blogers. Does that mean that US are not the only one trying to save Kagame?

davidbfpo

06-18-2012, 09:29 PM

Marc,

In answer to your question:
Does that mean that US are not the only one trying to save Kagame?

Can I suggest the likely suspect is the UK. Rwanda is a member of the Commonwealth, receives considerable UK aid and is of course closely linked to Uganda - who the UK also supports.

Amongst the other non-permanent UNSC members today I cannot see one that would do such a thing? Although South Africa can follow a strange policy at times. The members are on:http://www.un.org/sc/members.asp

M-A Lagrange

06-19-2012, 01:11 PM

A difficult question to answer to. First of all, please find below a communication from HRW calling to not defend Rwanda.

HRW criticises Rwanda's UN council seat
Human Rights Watch criticised Rwanda's virtual guarantee of a seat on the UN Security Council next year, saying on Monday it shouldn't be on the UN's most powerful body when it is protecting a Congolese ex-warlord indicted by the International Criminal Court.
Implicated in crimes against children

HRW's UN director, Philippe Bolopion, said on Monday if Rwanda wants to be a responsible Security Council member it should cut off all support for Ntaganda, actively seek to arrest him, and surrender him to the ICC.

"By allowing its territory to be used to protect and arm an ICC-indicted war criminal, Rwanda is making a mockery of the decisions of the same Security Council it is slated to join next year," Bolopion told AP.

"Bosco Ntaganda is not only implicated in horrendous crimes against civilians including children, he is also undermining everything the Security Council has tried to achieve at great expense in the region for the last decade."http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/HRW-criticises-Rwandas-UN-council-seat-20120619

I think that HRW resumes very well the situation: Rwanda will be a UNSC non permanent member next year. For many permanent members (at least 2), this means more leverage in the extended UNSC.
This tends to go in the direction given by David on why are there some difficulties in publishing the proof of Rwanda support to M23.

On the other end, DRC gov has been conducting a strong diplomatic offensive in Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi and Angola.
An offensive to which Angola responded positively, ensuring DRC of its support and SADC sympathy. This means that South Africa, Zimbabwe and Angola are, until they do something different, on DRC side. (Many articles in French can be found. I just add a link to one: http://www.mediacongo.net/show.asp?doc=20667)

The situation is quite tense in the sub region because we could end in a regional war in Africa, Central Africa against Southern Africa, on Congo soil.
Therefore lights need to be brought on allegations of Rwanda support to M23 (Rwandese have been made prisonners or surrendered).
Hopefully, discussions started as Rwanda foreign affairs minister is in Kinshasa.

And to finish and to illustrate why war criminal in DRC have to be turned to ICC, please find a link to Prosecutor address at Lubanga trial.
Just to remind who people like Bosco Ntaganda are (Bosco Ntaganda was under Lubanga orders in Ituri and he is wanted for similar crimes).

Prosecutor’s Address At Lubanga Sentencing
2. Thomas Lubanga’s recruitment included particularly cruel treatment. Children were abducted, their families forced to accept the situation, instead of obeying their mothers, children had to obey commanders. Children were trained by terror. They were trained to kill and to rape. The children were launched into battle zones where they were instructed to kill everyone regardless of whether they were men, women, or children, all were the enemy. The harm produced by this cruel treatment continue even after demobilization. Those who didn’t die as soldiers, they have permanent physical effects or they have on-going psychological trauma, all them still suffer.
In addition to these two aggravating factors, the Prosecution will like to highlight two aspects that should not be invisible. The crime of recruiting children as soldiers included as a fundamental aspect a gender discrimination, and fourth, the crime of recruiting children as soldiers denied these children and their generation of their right to education. I will briefly elaborate on both aspects:
3. Embedded in the recruitment of girl soldiers was their special use as sex slaves. In the training camps, girl soldiers were the daily victims of rape by the commanders and soldiers. The Prosecution chose not to charge this gender aspect as a separate crime because gender abuse is an essential part of the crime of recruiting girls as soldiers. All the girls recruited would be raped and abused because they are girls.
As emphasized by Ms. Radhika Coomaraswamy [the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict] in her amicus brief to this court, girl soldiers are too often invisible. “Wife” is the word used to make this crime invisible. A severe sentence would ensure that the gender suffering of these girls and other girls will no longer continue to be invisible.
http://www.lubangatrial.org/2012/06/18/prosecutors-address-at-lubanga-sentencing/

M-A Lagrange

06-21-2012, 11:36 AM

From Enough:

Rwanda’s Long Shadow: U.S.-Rwandan Relations and a Path Forward in Eastern Congo

Given the implications of Rwandan involvement in the conflict, the international community should immediately take steps to respond to these allegations. If necessary, they must also reassess the nature of their policies and relationships with Rwanda to ensure that, by extension, they are not willingly complicit in supporting these violations of international law. As documented below there is substantial available evidence linking destabilizing elements in eastern Congo to the government of Rwanda. Those donor governments that continue to provide support to the government of Rwanda must hold Kigali to account for its involvement in destabilizing activities in Congo. At this point, a strategy of diplomatic see-no-evil, hear-no-evil is irresponsible, hypocritical, and ultimately destructive.

To that end, the government of the United States should immediately take the following steps:

1.Ensure that the recent investigation conducted by the U.N. Group of Experts on Congo is published and leveraged as a step toward ending external intervention in eastern Congo. Further, push the Security Council to provide additional resources for the Group to continue the investigation in the lead-up to the release of the 2012 annual report.
2.Based on the accumulated evidence, begin a formal policy review with a specific focus on the overall U.S. military and developmental aid policy. Send a clear signal that intervention in eastern Congo is not acceptable. Base such action on Section 105 of the Democratic Republic of Congo Relief, Security, and Democracy Promotion Act of 2006, which includes provisions for eliminating aid to countries if the Secretary of State “determines that the government of a foreign country is taking actions to destabilize the Democratic Republic of the Congo.”
3.Partner with the government of Congo and the United Nations to develop a more aggressive strategy to dismantle the Rwandan Hutu militia, the FDLR, thus removing Rwanda’s main stated reason for its continued interest in eastern Congo.
http://www.enoughproject.org/publications/rwanda%E2%80%99s-long-shadow-us-rwandan-relations-and-path-forward-eastern-congo

DRC government just addressed a letter to UNSC to ask the UN to come and play an active role in preventing the situation to go amok.
Not really the best news in such context.

M-A Lagrange

06-22-2012, 11:16 AM

Top Rwandan officials backing Congo rebels: leaked U.N. findings

(Reuters) - U.N. experts have evidence Rwanda's defense minister and two top military officials have been backing an army mutiny in the east of neighboring Congo, according to notes of their briefing to a closed-door U.N. committee seen by Reuters on Thursday.

An M23 officer contacted by Reuters denied receiving Rwandan support, adding that any such backing would have allowed them to gain ground in the battle with regular Congolese forces.

"If a single time the Rwandans had supported us we wouldn't be on this hill - we would be far away from this. This action is purely Congolese," Colonel Vianney Kazarama said by phone.

The UN briefing was verbal. A written report of the Group of Experts findings is due in coming days to be submitted to the U.N. sanctions committee ahead of its final publication. There is no indication at this stage of any push to impose UN sanctions on either Rwanda or Congo.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/22/us-congo-democratic-rwanda-idUSBRE85L00420120622

In addition, additional exCNDP has left FARDC to join M23. Was not smelling good but starts to smell really bad at this stage.
Especially when Lambert Mende, the DRC gov speaker, says that they are not in a logic of war but in a logic of broken peace.:eek:

J Wolfsberger

06-22-2012, 11:21 AM

Perhaps I'm unfair, but 1. and 2. (from post #627) appear to be feel-good happy talk. However, point 3. would go a long way toward reducing the violence - after the violence involved in "dismantling" subsides. But they have overlooked DRC promotion of violence against Tutsi in the Kivus, which leads to the formation of Tutsi militias, which prompts Rwandan support, which provokes formation of Hutu militias, et cetera ad nauseum.

A change in policy by the DRC is required, along with recognition that it will take the DRC a long time to build trust among the Tutsi that they can disband their militias without fear of slaughterer. It's a very tough sell.

M-A Lagrange

06-22-2012, 12:09 PM

John,

I agree with you on the inferno spiral of the Kivu. I am just not that sure who started the militia (Hutu, Hunde, Tutsi, Nande, Bashi ???).

My points are:
1) there is a need of change of policy on both sides of the border,
2) there is a need of change of policy in US (backing Rwanda just does not work anymore),
3) there is a need for Kagame to clean his house if Rwanda is really not involved,
4) If Rwanda is involved and there are proofs then USA should help to solve rather than hide the issue.

Situation is getting hot in North Kivu. There are many ways to solve this.

M-A Lagrange

06-25-2012, 10:18 AM

even if it hurts.

Here is a link to the DRC Group of Experts report.
Unfortunately, the crucial annexes with proofs of Rwanda involvement have been removed. And it's USA who is guilty of it.
I can understand why and how a delayed publication might help. But anyways, I also past a link to the join NGO call for publication. :D

The report is difficult to access in its pdf format. Therefore, I encourrage to download it in WORD format.
Here is the link: http://documents.un.org/mother.asp
Symbol: S/2012/348

NGO Coalition Urges Full Disclosure of Evidence Linking Rwanda to Congo's Rebellion
22 June, 2012 - 19:55
The Enough Project joined a coalition of human rights organizations, which includes Open Society Foundation and Humanity United, urging the U.S. government to pressure the U.N. Security Council to release all of the U.N. Group of Expert’s most recent findings related to Congo. In a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, the groups expressed concern that the publication of a crucial annex linking the government of Rwanda to the M23 mutiny in Congo was being postponed for political reasons.

http://www.humanitariannews.org/20120622/ngo-coalition-urges-full-disclosure-evidence-linking-rwanda-congos-rebellion

In addition, DRC MPs have called for an increase of defense 2012 budget...

To quote DRC speaker: "we are not at war with Rwanda but in a broken peace relationship."
I do not know what that means but for me DRC is on the path of war and so is Rwanda. Nothing good will come out of this.

M-A Lagrange

07-01-2012, 10:41 AM

U.S. Tells Rwanda to Halt Support for Rebels in Eastern Congo

An addendum to a report by the United Nations Group of Experts on Congo accused top Rwandan officials including its Minister of Defense of coordinating military operations with several Congolese rebel groups. Rwanda has denied the allegations.

“We are deeply concerned about the report’s findings that Rwanda is implicated in the provision of support to Congolese rebel groups,” State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said in the statement. The U.S. has “asked Rwanda to halt and prevent the provision of such support from its territory.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-30/u-s-tells-rwanda-to-halt-support-for-rebels-in-eastern-congo.html

The addendum can be found at the following link:
http://www.un.org/sc/committees/1533/egroup.shtmlhttp://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/2012/348/Add.1

All the ingredients of an invasion of DRC through proxies and exCNDP (Pro Rwanda) forces integrated in FARDC are here.
The evidence are disturbing.

200 000 IDPs + 20 000 refugees for the momment. May be it is time to call for stronger sanctions than just saying: "you're naughty boy!".

M-A Lagrange

07-10-2012, 07:32 AM

UN: peacekeeper killed in volatile eastern Congo
The Indian peacekeeper was killed overnight on Thursday as fighters from the M23 rebel group attempted to take the town of Bunagana, said Madnodje Mounoubai, the United Nations spokesman in Congo.
"I confirm the death of a peacekeeper of Indian origin working for the United Nations mission in Congo," he said. "He was hit by shrapnel from an exploding shell during an attack by the M23 mutineers in Bunagana last night."
"We took the town of Bunagana this morning at around 6 a.m. but we do not plan to stay," said M23 spokesman Vianney Kazarama, who was reached by telephone in eastern Congo. "We plan to leave our police there for security, but we are going to return to our initial positions in the surrounding hills. ... We do not need to take the towns or the villages even if we control several now. We are only asking the government of Kinshasa to respond to our demands, which are known by all."
A United Nations report says that the rebels are led by Ntaganda, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court, and backed by Rwanda _ a charge Rwanda denies.
On Thursday, U.S. Ambassador R. Barrie Walkley said he had issued a strong message to Rwanda. "I'm coming from Kigali, where I passed on a forceful message that outside support to the M23 group must stop, must cease," said the recently appointed U.S. special representative to the Great Lakes region that includes Rwanda and Congo.http://www.timesonline.com/news/world/africa/un-peacekeeper-killed-in-volatile-eastern-congo/article_0be9d0d1-f1ff-5232-8888-d9b34b647c27.html

Kinshasa and Kigali must talk. Let's push in that direction.

M-A Lagrange

07-11-2012, 10:12 AM

Statement: Office of the Prosecutor on Lubanga sentence

By sentencing Thomas Lubanga Dyilo to 14 years in prison for the crimes of enlisting, conscripting and using children under the age of 15 to participate actively in hostilities, International Criminal Court judges have sent a clear message to perpetrators of crimes: you will not go unpunished. The Prosecution had requested a longer sentence in line with the gravity of the crimes and the aggravating circumstances. The Prosecution is now studying the Judgment in detail and will consider whether or not to appeal. The Prosecution is also expecting to hear the judges’ decision on reparations in order to ensure the victims of Lubanga’s crimes see the full scale of justice.

The ICC's Prosecution continues to conduct investigations in the situation in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) where violence is still ongoing and escalating. The local populations including children continue to be exposed to the dramatic consequences of war at the hands of armed groups supported by regional actors. Civilians are used as a bargaining tool in the search for power and economic gain. In the context of this situation, an arrest warrant was issued in 2006 by the Court for Bosco Ntaganda who is among those responsible for this situation. The Prosecution has recently asked for new charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes to be brought against him, including for murder, persecution, intentional attacks against civilians, rape and sexual slavery and pillaging. Recent information has surfaced that a new group called M23 associated with him has reverted to violence and armed confrontation against the DRC army. As a consequence civilians pay the highest price. This is unacceptable and must end. Those responsible for these crimes should be isolated, arrested and brought to justice. This is the only way to put an end to this vicious cycle of violence, reprisals and attacks against the civilian population in Eastern DRC.http://www.icc-cpi.int/NR/exeres/E2A2AA2A-E1DD-4FAD-80A6-E456F2F23DF0.htm

14 years is not much as Lubanga spent already 8 years in jail. So he'll be free in 6. But that's a strating point.

M-A Lagrange

07-19-2012, 04:56 PM

US-trained Congolese troops to aid efforts against M23 rebels
Congolese soldiers undergo training at a camp in Kisangani, Democratic Republic of the Congo, in this September 2010 photo. A U.S.-trained light infantry battalion of Congolese soldiers will help in efforts to halt advances by the M23 rebel group in the DRC, the United Nations says.
http://www.stripes.com/news/us-trained-congolese-troops-to-aid-efforts-against-m23-rebels-1.183281

M-A Lagrange

07-21-2012, 04:02 PM

SATURDAY, JULY 21, 2012
US State Department's Statement on Rwanda

In light of information that Rwanda is supporting armed groups in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the Department of State has decided it can no longer provide Foreign Military Financing (FMF) appropriated in the current fiscal year to Rwanda, considering a restriction imposed by the 2012 appropriation act.

As a result, we will not obligate $200,000 in Fiscal Year 2012 FMF funds that were intended to support a Rwandan academy for non-commissioned officers. These funds will be reallocated for programming in another country.

We will continue to provide assistance to Rwanda to enhance its capacity to support peacekeeping missions.

The Department continues to assess whether other steps should be taken in response to Rwanda’s actions with respect to the DRC.

The United States government is deeply concerned about the evidence that Rwanda is implicated in the provision of support to Congolese rebel groups, including M23.

The United States has been actively engaged at the highest levels to urge Rwanda to halt and prevent the provision of such support, which threatens to undermine stability in the region.

Restraint, dialogue, and respect for each other’s sovereignty offer the best opportunity for Rwanda and the DRC, with the support of their partners, to resume the difficult work of bringing peace and security to the broader region.

We are encouraged by the ongoing high-level dialogue among the states of the Great Lakes region, and we join the Security Council in taking note with interest of the communiqué issued by the eleven member states of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) on July 12.

Developing a disciplined and unified army as part of a comprehensive security sector reform process remains critical to the stabilization of the DRC.

We support efforts to bring to justice alleged human rights abusers among the mutineers, including Bosco Ntaganda, who is the subject of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant. We are concerned by reports that the mutineers have forcibly recruited child soldiers.

Hilary Fuller Renner
Spokesperson
Bureau of African Affairs
U.S. Department of State

M-A Lagrange

07-25-2012, 01:14 PM

Rwanda's Paul Kagame warned he may be charged with aiding war crimes

The head of the US war crimes office has warned Rwanda's leaders, including President Paul Kagame, that they could face prosecution at the international criminal court for arming groups responsible for atrocities in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Stephen Rapp, who leads the US Office of Global Criminal Justice, told the Guardian the Rwandan leadership may be open to charges of "aiding and abetting" crimes against humanity in a neighbouring country – actions similar to those for which the former Liberian president Charles Taylor was jailed for 50 years by an international court in May.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/25/rwanda-paul-kagame-war-crimes

Washington is increasing pressure on Rwanda while in the field, military pressure is set by M23 on FARDC and MONUSCO:

Early this morning, at 3am (local time), the M23 started an offensive against the FARDC in Rutshuru. Heavy fightings took place between M23 and FARDC who are supported by MONUSCO. MONUSCO, to enforce FARDC movement deployed 3 light infantry "tanks" in Rutshuru on 22 july 2012.
At 15h00, after nearly 12 hours of fightings, combats in Rutshuru and Kiwanja have stopped but FARDC and M23 are still fightings in the surrounding areas.
Yesterday, on 24 july 2012, M23 launched an offensive in the south of their position. MONUSCO used its airpower to stop them, 23 km far from Goma, the North Kivu capital.

UN helicopters fire on rebels in eastern DR Congo

United Nations helicopters fired on rebel positions Tuesday in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo after new clashes broke out between rebel fighters and loyalist troops, officials said.

The second such UN action against rebels came in response to a rebel offensive "against the civilian population", said Mamodj Munubai, a spokesman for MONUSCO, the UN mission in DR Congo.

The airbourne action followed renewed clashes that broke out between M23 rebel fighters and loyalist troops, north of the regional capital Goma.

Major Olivier Hamuli, the army spokesman for Nord Kivu province, said fighting erupted after rebels attacked army positions around Rugari and Kimumba, about 30 kilometres (20 miles) north of regional capital Goma.
http://www.france24.com/en/20120724-un-helicopters-fire-rebels-eastern-dr-congo-un

To all my friends there: stay safe!

M-A Lagrange

07-30-2012, 05:30 AM

While Rwanda through its foreign affairs is protesting, accusing western powers to treat african countries as children, hopefully, western powers do not listen:

UK and the Netherlands withhold Rwanda budget aid
The UK and the Netherlands have joined the US in withholding aid to Rwanda over its alleged backing of rebels in Democratic Republic of Congo.

The UK government said it was delaying £16m ($25m) in budget support due this month while it considered whether aid conditions had been met.

Rwanda again rejected allegations in a UN report that it was supporting the M23 movement rebels in DR Congo.

Foreign Minister Louise Mushikiwabo told the BBC it was "one sided".

The rebels mutinied from the Congolese army in April and some 200,000 people have fled their homes as a result of fighting.

News of the further aid suspensions came as a senior UN official told the BBC that defecting Congolese rebels have confirmed that they were recruited in Rwanda.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19010495

It's a wake-up call for Rwanda... to figure out a way to sustain our development without being subjected to bullying and pressure from donors said Louise Mushikiwabo Rwandan foreign minister

Well, I believe it should be a wake up call for Rwanda... To figure out a way to sustain development without bullying and exploiting illegaly its neigbour ressources.

M-A Lagrange

07-30-2012, 09:00 AM

joins the club of the naughty western children:

Germany latest to suspend Rwanda aid
Germany's development ministry said on Saturday it suspended $26m in contributions to Rwanda's budget planned from this year through 2015. Britain and the Netherlands already have suspended support and the US cut planned military aid of $200,000.

Dirk Niebel, the German development minister, said he expects "unreserved co-operation" by Rwanda with the UN experts. "The accusations must be cleared up completely, and it must be clear that Rwanda does not support any illegal militias in eastern Congo," he said in a statement.

Louise Mushikiwabo, Rwanda's foreign minister, expressed regret on Friday at the "hasty decisions based on flimsy evidence".

The Netherlands said it was suspending $6.1m promised to improve Rwanda's judicial sector while Britain, Rwanda's biggest donor, said it was delaying a budget support payment scheduled this month.

London's Financial Times newspaper quoted a Swedish aid official on Thursday saying Scandinavian countries on the board of the African Development Bank also forced the delay of a decision on the disbursal of $38.9m in budget aid to Rwanda from last week until September.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/07/20127281579389961.html

M-A Lagrange

07-31-2012, 02:17 PM

Rwanda just published a response to the UN group of Experts report pointing Rwanda has the master mind of M23 mutiny:

Rwanda's response to UN Group of Experts interim report
Kigali: (1). On 21st June 2012, the UN Group of Experts (GoE) for DRC submitted its interim annual report to the UN Sanctions Committee. Five days later, on 25th June the GoE submitted a 48-page addendum to the interim report under intense pressure from the media and non-state actors who had been aggressively touting the baseless claim that the hastily-drafted addendum was being withheld for political reasons or as the result of illegitimate intervention on the part of Rwanda or its allies at the Security Council.
http://www.safpi.org/news/article/2012/rwandas-response-un-group-experts-interim-report

The report from Rwanda government is accessible from that site.

Among many questions rised by Rwanda, the main one is the final aim of Rwanda support to M23.
Here is a response from Herman Cohen, the US diplomat, who cannot be accused to be against Kigali.

Hank Cohen: Rwanda fights to maintain economic control of the region
The Congolese Government wants to retake control of these units, and either disarm them, or transfer them to other regions of this vast country. The economic stakes are too high for Rwanda, and it is virtually impossible for Rwanda to acquiesce in this attempted reversal of the military balance in the eastern Congo.

The current fighting may however be the end of the line for Rwanda's illegitimate exploitation of the eastern Congo's mineral resources. The fact that the UN peacekeeping mission in the Congo (MONUSCO) is fighting on the side of the official army is an indication that the international community has had enough. Rwanda may consequently be entering a period of difficulty.

Herman J. "Hank" Cohen served as the United States Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs from 1989 to 1993.
http://www.safpi.org/news/article/2012/hank-cohen-rwanda-fights-maintain-economic-control-region

AdamG

08-04-2012, 06:24 PM

What do we do when those we entrust with our greatest hopes betray that trust? If the betrayers are United Nations peacekeepers, the answer seem to be nothing at all. There is distressing new evidence, most of it reported here for the first time, that foreign soldiers in the Democratic Republic of Congo can sexually and violently violate young girls with impunity so long as they wear that iconic blue beret or blue helmet.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/peacekeepers-gone-wild-how-much-more-abuse-will-the-un-ignore-in-congo/article4462151/?cmpid=rss1

M-A Lagrange

08-08-2012, 12:34 PM

U.S. rules denting Congo rebels' mineral profits: study

(Reuters) - A U.S. law and an electronics industry code governing the use of conflict minerals have slashed profits among armed groups in the Democratic Republic of Congo by 65 percent in the past two years, a report by a nonprofit rights group found on Tuesday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/07/us-congo-democratic-minerals-idUSBRE8761J220120807

I leave you connect the dots...

M-A Lagrange

09-07-2012, 01:17 PM

Rwanda: Special Forces Return HomeRWANDAN Special Forces returned home over the weekend after their joint operations with the Congolese army FARDC came to an end.
The Joint operations were against the Forces Democratic pour la Liberation du Rwanda (FDLR), a terrorist militia comprised of perpetrators of the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi, with bases in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
The 357 Rwanda soldiers were operating in concert with 357 other Congolese counterparts - FARDC, under a Joint DRC-Rwanda Special Forces Battalion based in the Rutshuru territory of DRC's North Kivu province. Rutshuru is located about 70 kilometres north of North Kivu's Provincial Capital, Goma.
Showing no signs of fatigue despite marching for over 100 kilometres since Friday evening, the 357 soldiers [two companies] arrived home through the Kabuhanga border post, in Mutovu cell, Bugeshi sector of Rubavu district, at exactly 15:53pm.
Addressing the troops, Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Gen. Charles Kayonga, saluted their service, telling them that they had accomplished their mission to the satisfaction of the Commander-in-Chief, the RDF leadership and the nation.
He told the returning troops that it was necessary that they return home because of the current changes in the conflict engulfing eastern DRC, especially with the FARDC whom they were jointly operating with now fighting the M23, with the latter overrunning the area of operations of the Joint Special Forces Battalion in Rutchuru.http://allafrica.com/stories/201209031017.html

Here are some pictures of that ceremony:
http://www.soleildugraben.com/actualite/nationale/269-lambert-mende-omalanga-pris-en-flagrant-dlit-de-mensonge.html

This is important cause those special operation troops were present in Rutshuru territory (DRC) during the fighting between FARDC and M23. As soon as they were gone, M23 took over their positions. (here is an article in French: http://radiookapi.net/actualite/2012/09/04/nord-kivu-le-m23-occupe-les-positions-abandonnees-par-les-forces-speciales-rwandaises-kiseguro/).

Also, if you look at the first picture, there is a US soldier present during the ceremony.

carl

09-07-2012, 03:34 PM

[Also, if you look at the first picture, there is a US soldier present during the ceremony.

I laughed when I saw that picture because the American camouflage uniform was the only one that didn't even come close to blending in with the foliage.

Is an arrangement developing between the US and Rwanda similar to the one between the US and Uganda, where we sort of use them as proxy troops?

M-A Lagrange

09-13-2012, 07:09 AM

While some accross the seas are trying to find excuses to the M23 rebels backed by Rwanda in DRC, HRW details what it is to live under M23 rules:

DR Congo: M23 Rebels Committing War Crimes
(Goma) – M23 rebels in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are responsible for widespread war crimes, including summary executions, rapes, and forced recruitment. Thirty-three of those executed were young men and boys who tried to escape the rebels’ ranks.

Since June, M23 fighters have deliberately killed at least 15 civilians in areas under their control, some because they were perceived to be against the rebels, Human Rights Watch said. The fighters also raped at least 46 women and girls. The youngest rape victim was eight years old. M23 fighters shot dead a 25-year-old woman who was three months pregnant because she resisted being raped. Two other women died from the wounds inflicted on them when they were raped by M23 fighters.
http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/09/11/dr-congo-m23-rebels-committing-war-crimes

Let's not be complesent and once again watch away from Central Africa atrocities.

M-A Lagrange

09-19-2012, 03:00 PM

There was an hearing on Rwanda involvement in DRC insurgency at House Committee on Foreign Affairs.

Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, and Human Rights
Chaired by Christopher H. Smith (R-NJ)

Witnesses
■Bishop Ntambo Nkulu Ntanda
United Methodist Church of North Katanga
Democratic Republic of the Congo

■Mr. Mark Schneider
Senior Vice President
International Crisis Group

■Mr. Jason Stearns
Director
Usalama Project Rift Valley Institute
http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearings/view/?1476

davidbfpo

09-24-2012, 01:35 PM

More commentary on the 'dark heart of Africa', primarily due to local actors and the failure of the UN mission. There are some hopeful signs.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/andrew-wallis/dr-congo-beyond-crisis-cycle

M-A Lagrange

09-24-2012, 02:30 PM

Thanks David for posting this. it balances my previous post which is quite in defavour of Rwanda. But also, if you take the time to read Bishop Ntambo Nkulu Ntanda testimony extremely harsh on DRC.

I would like to highlight the core issue in this endless conflict: blood minerals.

Congo calls for embargo on Rwandan minerals
"To put an end to this situation, one of the solutions would be to impose an embargo on all minerals coming from Rwanda, until the establishment of a lasting peace in the provinces of North and South Kivu," Martin Kabwelulu said in the letter.
"It is in this context that your institution ... is invited to instruct all American companies ... to no longer buy minerals extracted and/or coming from Rwanda," he said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/18/congo-democratic-rwanda-minerals-idUSL5E8KIM6920120918

I could say it but Mr Kagame, President of the Republic of Rwanda says it better than me:
Is it strange for Rwanda to have “economic interests” in DR Congo?
http://newsofrwanda.com/breaking/13588/kagame-strange-rwanda-economic-interests-dr-congo/

I agree with Mr Kagame: Rwanda has all rights to have economical interrest in DRC but the real questions is how his country managed to increase its mineral taxes revenues from 89 $millions to 190 $millions between 2010 and 2011? This when suddently at least one of the main mines in DRC, controled by Rwandan citizen and war criminal Bosco Ntaganda (According to ICC and UN experts panel), "officially" stop to produce minerals...

US and Europ based companies which are boycotting (rightly) DRC minerals should also boycott Rwanda mineral until all this mess has been cleared. This would be fair.

M-A Lagrange

10-05-2012, 11:26 AM

Eastern Congo: Why Stabilisation Failed

Since Bosco Ntaganda’s mutiny in April 2012 and the creation of the 23 March rebel movement (M23), violence has returned to the Kivus. This crisis shows that today’s problems are the same as yesterday’s because the 2008 framework for resolution of the conflict has yet to be put in place. Instead of implementing the 23 March 2009 agreement between the government and the CNDP (National Council for the Defence of the People), the Congolese authorities pretended to integrate the CNDP into political institutions, while the rebel group pretended to integrate into the Congolese army. In the absence of army reform, military pressure on armed groups only had a temporary effect and post-conflict reconstruction was not accompanied by essential governance reforms and political dialogue. To move away from crisis management and truly resolve the two-decades-old conflict, donors should put pressure on both Kigali and Kinshasa.
Kinshasa/Nairobi/Brussels, 4 October 2012http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/central-africa/dr-congo/b091-eastern-congo-why-stabilisation-failed.aspx

The briefing should be available in english next week. It tries to explore the roots of the actual conflict in Eastern DRC. The briefing does not focus on Rwanda involvement, others did it extremely well, but rather lookes at where M23 comes from.

J Wolfsberger

10-11-2012, 02:37 PM

US and Europ based companies which are boycotting (rightly) DRC minerals should also boycott Rwanda mineral until all this mess has been cleared. This would be fair.

US law already does. The problem is that minerals, and more specifically the elements obtained from them, are fungible. The US (and EU) may refuse to purchase tungsten (wolfram) from Central Africa, but someone else will, and the US (and EU) will be purchasing the metal from other sources.

The only solution is to choke them off at the source. Which, of course, requires strong military intervention.

M-A Lagrange

10-12-2012, 11:33 AM

US law already does. The problem is that minerals, and more specifically the elements obtained from them, are fungible. The US (and EU) may refuse to purchase tungsten (wolfram) from Central Africa, but someone else will, and the US (and EU) will be purchasing the metal from other sources.

The only solution is to choke them off at the source. Which, of course, requires strong military intervention.

Yes, with the Dodd-Frank act, US law already does it. But Rwanda mineral exports are said to be transparent which is not the case. As long as you will have this grey shadow over mineral exports from Rwanda and DRC, then you will never know if what you purchase comes from conflict free area. And as long as DRC will not act to set a tracking mechanism then you will have the temptation to destabilise Kivu to secure conflict free labelled minerals.

Also, you can buy coltan and Cassiterit from Brasil or other part of the world. So it should be in the interrest of DRC to act. But... Easier to say than to have it done.

Finally, military solution is just the visible part of the iceberg. The last ICG report points out the fact that there is no real political will to implement conflict resolution mechanisms from all parties (DRC, Rwanda, ICRGL and international community): this is what needs to change.

M-A Lagrange

10-16-2012, 08:24 AM

The english version of ICG report on M23 has been released:
http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/africa/central-africa/dr-congo/b091-eastern-congo-why-stabilisation-failed.pdf

And the overview:
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/central-africa/dr-congo/b091-eastern-congo-why-stabilisation-failed.aspx

Comments welcomed

M-A Lagrange

10-31-2012, 07:09 AM

CONTINUATION OF THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY
WITH RESPECT TO THE SITUATION IN OR IN RELATION
TO THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
On October 27, 2006, by Executive Order 13413, the President declared a national emergency with respect to the situation in or in relation to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and, pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701-1706), ordered related measures blocking the property of certain persons contributing to the conflict in that country. The President took this action to deal with the unusual and extraordinary threat to the foreign policy of the United States constituted by the situation in or in relation to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has been marked by widespread violence and atrocities that continue to threaten regional stability.

Because this situation continues to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the foreign policy of the United States, the national emergency declared on October 27, 2006, and the measures adopted on that date to deal with that emergency, must continue in effect beyond October 27, 2012. Therefore, in accordance with section 202(d) of the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1622(d)), I am continuing for 1 year the national emergency declared in Executive Order 13413.

This notice shall be published in the Federal Register and transmitted to the Congress.

BARACK OBAMA
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/10/24/notice-continuation-national-emergency-respect-situation-or-relation-dem

With the US elections coming, Uganda and Rwanda are taking advantage of the paralysed US diplomacy to increase their presence in Eastern DRC.
Elections of Rwanda as a non permanent member of the UNSC was already a big camouffle for the United Nations and the possibilities of peace in the sub region.
Bringing peace in Great Lakes region could be easy, as in 2009 merely a phone call away. Next US presedent, who ever he is, should not be stopped by some black mail from Uganda and Rwanda over their participations to Somalia and Darfur peace keeping operations. It has to be clear that the price to enter UNSC and to be a regarded peace keeper is peace in Eastern DRC not a right to loot Eastern DRC.

davidbfpo

11-03-2012, 03:54 PM

The military and political tensions in the contested eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo are reinforced by diplomatic failures. A turn towards negotiation and compromise is vital if the area's long-term problems are to be addressed, says Andrew Wallis.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/andrew-wallis/dr-congo-behind-headlines

The author ends with:
If there is to be any chance of implementing the vital long term solutions the people of Kivu and the DRC deserve, then at some point the blame-game has to stop and the process of negotiation and mutual accommodation must begin.

Abbreviations aside the best word for the situation is messy. At least the local African nations have sat at a table, although funding a new intervention force seems highly unlikely unless the UN exit.

AdamG

11-19-2012, 05:52 AM

KINSHASA, Congo U.N. attack helicopters targeted M23 rebels in eastern Congo on Saturday after fighting resumed following a monthslong lull in violence, a local official said.

Two army officers and 151 rebels were killed in a battle beginning Thursday that the U.N. called the worst clash between the M23 group and the military since July. Attack helicopters for the U.N. mission in Congo, known as MONUSCO, had been on standby.

"MONUSCO helicopters this morning bombarded the M23 positions in the city of Kibumba," said North Kivu governor Julien Paluku. He said the Congolese army had earlier retreated from Kibumba, which is 30 kilometers (19 miles) north of Goma, after thousands of Rwandans, who he says were backing the rebels, attacked early Saturday.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57551524/u.n-launches-aerial-attack-on-rebels-in-east-congo/

Rebels advancing in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are warning UN peacekeepers that "we will respond" if they fail to stop backing the regular army by strafing rebel positions. UN attack helicopters launched sorties against M23 rebels on Saturday but failed to prevent them from taking another town, as the Security Council demanded an end to foreign support for rebels closing in on the provincial capital of Goma.

http://www.timeslive.co.za/africa/2012/11/18/m23-rebels-warn-un-against-attacking-in-drc

Associated Press, Published: November 10

GOMA, Congo — The Congolese army has attacked M23 rebel positions, ending a two-month ceasefire, charged the rebel spokesman. Ten civilians were killed when government forces fired on the rebel base in Kitagoma, in eastern Congo, near the border with Uganda, said M23 political branch spokesman Bertrand Bisimwa Saturday. He said the attack was on Friday.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/congo-m23-rebels-say-government-army-has-attacked-them-ending-ceasefire/2012/11/10/93df70e6-2b62-11e2-aaa5-ac786110c486_story.html

M-A Lagrange

11-20-2012, 01:42 PM

DR Congo’s Goma: Avoiding a New Regional War
Brussels/Nairobi | 20 Nov 2012
The east Congolese city of Goma and its key airport have reportedly fallen after heavy fighting to the M23 rebel group. Regional and international actors must now prevent this turning into a new regional war.

The past week has shown history repeating itself in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with the same tragic consequences for civilians in the region (see Crisis Group briefing from 4 October for background).

On 15 November 2012, the M23 rebel movement, with – according to the DRC – the backing of Rwanda’s armed forces, broke the 25 July de facto ceasefire observed with the Congolese army (Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo, FARDC) and launched an offensive against Goma, the capital of North Kivu province.

Unable, despite numerous attempts, to extend its control over the resource-rich Masisi territory, constrained by Uganda’s closure of its Bunangana border with the DRC and frustrated by the decision of the UN Security Council to place its main leader, Sultani Makenga, on the UN sanctions list, the M23 had finally decided to make real its threat to attack the city. On 18 November, following three days of fighting, the movement broke the FARDC’s resistance and tried to force the government of President Joseph Kabila to negotiate.

On 19 November, after several fruitless attempts at talks and an ultimatum from the M23 to the government, fighting broke out inside Goma, a city under the defence of the FARDC and UN peacekeepers (MONUSCO). The M23’s ultimatum had demanded the FARDC’s withdrawal from, and the demilitarisation of, Goma and its airport; the reopening of the Bunangana border post; and an inclusive negotiation process to bring in the unarmed Congolese political opposition, civil society and the diaspora. By making this demand, the M23 aimed to reduce the crisis to a domestic affair, thereby preventing Kinshasa from internationalising it in order to negotiate a solution at the regional level through the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) with those neighbouring countries that allegedly support the M23 rebellion.

While negotiations were on the verge of starting in Goma, President Kabila ultimately refused to recognise the M23 as a legitimate interlocutor, and clashes broke out inside the city. The rebels entered Goma on 20 November, forcing the Congolese army to retreat to Sake.

The new offensive is a tragic repeat of the threat by Laurent Nkunda’s Conseil National de Défense du Peuple (CNDP) to take Goma in 2008. Once again, the civilian population is paying a heavy price. As in 2008, the same causes could produce the same fearful effects:

•the fall of Goma could lead to serious human rights abuses against civilian populations;
•the settling of accounts or even targeted extrajudicial executions against authorities and civil society activists who have taken a stance against the M23 since the beginning of the crisis in March could raise the death toll and fuel more violence;
•Kinshasa’s capitulation to the M23 could send shock waves throughout the Kivus and relaunch open warfare between the DRC and Rwanda; and
•the UN and the ICGLR, both responsible for conflict management in the region, are being discredited.
As immediate steps, regional and international actors must secure:

•an end to fighting inside Goma;
•M23’s commitment to respect MONUSCO’s mandate to fully protect civilians; and
•M23’s concrete assurances, visible on the ground, to respect civilians and property in areas under their control, and prevent further human rights abuses.
To avoid a regional implosion, the following steps are also necessary:

•explicit condemnation by the UN Security Council, African Union (AU) and ICGLR of external involvement in the fighting;
•immediate efforts by MONUSCO’s leadership to seek to negotiate and secure a formal ceasefire, as well as accelerate the deployment of the Joint Verification Mechanism and the Neutral Force agreed by the ICGLR;
•sanctions by the European Union (EU), UN Security Council, and especially France, the UK and the U.S., as well as the AU, not only against the rebellion’s leaders, but also against their external supporters;
•an investigation by the International Criminal Court into the actions of the M23 and new armed groups, and the request by the court that MONUSCO transfer its files concerning M23 leaders; and
•the immediate establishment of a joint fact-finding mission in the region by the AU, EU, Belgian, South African and U.S. special envoys for the Great Lakes to determine the best course for arriving at the long-term resolution of this crisis.
The immediate priority is to stop the current fighting and protect civilians.

Long-term solutions will require that the UN Security Council, AU and ICGLR ensure that peace agreements and that stabilisation plans no longer remain empty promises. To achieve this, coordinated and unequivocal pressure on the Congolese government and the M23 rebel movement, as well as the latter’s external supporters, is required from international donors and regional actors.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/alerts/2012/dr-congo-s-goma-avoiding-a-new-regional-war.aspx

carl

11-20-2012, 05:58 PM

If M23 holds Goma airport, has the UN moved all their helos to Bukavu?

AdamG

11-20-2012, 08:37 PM

NPR picks up the ball
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2012/11/19/165497836/violence-in-congo-is-the-worst-in-four-years

The MONUSCO North Kivu Brigade(?) HQ'd in Goma supposedly musters 4k troops, with the Ukrainian 18th Independent Helicopter unit manning those Hinds. No word on what they did when M23 rolled into town, other than "not resisting" although Goma's airfield got mortared from over in Rwanda yesterday. It would have made sense to displace the three aviation units to Bukavu.

Hmmm... make popcorn, this is gonna get interesting.

Stan

11-20-2012, 08:55 PM

If M23 holds Goma airport, has the UN moved all their helos to Bukavu?

Hey Carl,
If I were a betting man and had the fuel to do so, I would beat feet to Entebbe where my UN logistics base resides. Otherwise, I’d fly my butt for 15 minutes to Kigali.

Bukavu seems a crap shoot with a dilapidated airfield and true Congolese hospitality on the tarmac :D

How goes it ?

Regards, Stan

AdamG

11-20-2012, 09:01 PM

Otherwise, I’d fly my butt for 15 minutes to Kigali.

Considering that Rwanda is supporting M23, wouldn't that be sort of... weird? :confused:

AdamG

11-20-2012, 09:09 PM

From 8 hours ago -

MONUSCO, the U.N. peacekeeping force, is still present in Goma and remains in control of the airport in Goma, said Eduardo del Buey, deputy spokesman for the U.N. secretary-general. The peacekeeping force has largely stayed out of the fighting in recent hours. Del Buey added that "robust patrolling by 17 quick reaction force teams is also ongoing" and MONUSCO troops will continue efforts to protect civilians.

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/20/world/africa/congo-rebels/index.html

From a few minutes ago -

Congolese rebels seize Goma, take airport, push toward Bukavu

“Goma is in the process of being occupied by Rwanda,” said Mende, speaking from Congo’s distant capital of Kinshasa. “We have people who saw the Rwandan army traverse our frontier at the Nyamuragira volcano. They have occupied the airport and they are shooting inside the town. Our army is trying to riposte but this poses an enormous problem for them — this is an urban center where hundreds of thousands of people live,” he said.

A Congolese colonel, who was at the frontline in Goma before the city fell, said that the soldiers he saw were Rwandan. Neither his claim nor Mende’s could be independently verified.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/congo-m23-rebels-resume-fighting-at-gomas-edge-vow-to-take-key-city/2012/11/19/15355114-32a8-11e2-92f0-496af208bf23_story_1.html

Stan

11-20-2012, 09:26 PM

Considering that Rwanda is supporting M23, wouldn't that be sort of... weird? :confused:

Hi Adam,
Well, based on a phoncon this morning via the BBC, the M23 unequivocally denies receiving anything from Rwanda.

In fact, they responded to the question regarding arms sources by saying they fled with firearms and munitions from the Congolese army. :eek:

Here's what some of my recent documentation provides (source intentionally left out for fear of loss of salary, retirement, limbs, etc. :rolleyes: )

The Contractor should plan on deploying the capacity from the home country through Kigali, Rwanda or Entebbe

I was only trying to figure out what I would do if I had a helo license and lived in Goma (which I sadly have done without a helicopter).

Regards, Stan

Stan

11-20-2012, 09:38 PM

From 8 hours ago -

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/20/world/africa/congo-rebels/index.html

From a few minutes ago -

Congolese rebels seize Goma, take airport, push toward Bukavu

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/congo-m23-rebels-resume-fighting-at-gomas-edge-vow-to-take-key-city/2012/11/19/15355114-32a8-11e2-92f0-496af208bf23_story_1.html

I'd worry about anything Mende Omalanga (DRC Minister of Communications) had to say. This is what the rest think! (http://www.theexposer.net/kiny/spip.php?article83)

AdamG

11-20-2012, 10:33 PM

Hi Adam,
Well, based on a phoncon this morning via the BBC, the M23 unequivocally denies receiving anything from Rwanda.

Well, that's settles it then. :D

U.N. officials have also accused neighboring Rwanda of backing the rebels, which Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame has denied. A 44-page U.N. report by experts monitoring an arms embargo in Congo found that Rwandan officials have played a leading role in the rebellion, including financing the insurgents and providing them with sophisticated military equipment.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/rebels-seize-strategic-congolese-city-as-un-forces-watch-helplessly/2012/11/20/2cbb3e34-3343-11e2-92f0-496af208bf23_story.html

Also, I'd recommend reading some of the earlier posts in this thread.

No Kingali exodus for you.

carl

11-21-2012, 12:57 AM

Stan: I never had any problem in Bukavu. They were sort of neighborly in a Congolese officialdom sort of way. Kindu on the other hand...

AdamG: The whole place is weird, that is what makes it so entertaining for ex-pats who are there and so hellish for the locals. Flying to Kigali, Rwanda to seek refuge from Rwandans in the Congo that you have been shooting at makes perfect sense in context.

AdamG

11-21-2012, 04:24 AM

AdamG: The whole place is weird, that is what makes it so entertaining for ex-pats who are there and so hellish for the locals. Flying to Kigali, Rwanda to seek refuge from Rwandans in the Congo that you have been shooting at makes perfect sense in context.

Ok, but that same metric work for MONUSCO? They seem sort of hide-bound and maybe paralyzed. In any event, moot since MONUSCO still holds the airport.

M23 and the Congolese army were engaged in running battles in the centre of Goma from early on Tuesday morning. M23 made significant advances, particularly in the streets around the airport, which remained under the control of the UN peacekeeping mission, Monusco.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/20/goma-falls-congo-rebels

PARIS (Reuters) - French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius on Tuesday urged a review of the United Nations' peacekeeping mandate in the Democratic Republic of Congo, after rebels widely believed to be backed by Rwanda seized the eastern city of Goma.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-congo-democratic-fabiusbre8aj135-20121120,0,1286460.story

M-A Lagrange

11-21-2012, 05:07 AM

Security Situation in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo
Press Statement
Victoria Nuland
Department Spokesperson, Office of the Spokesperson
Washington, DC

November 20, 2012

The United States is gravely alarmed by the rapid deterioration of the security situation in eastern DRC. We condemn the renewed military campaign by the M23 rebel group, which is an affront to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the DRC and in violation of international law. We call for a ceasefire, and for the M23 to return Goma to DRC authorities and pull back to their July positions.
We call upon all states to use their influence on the M23 to bring about an immediate end to the hostilities. We urge Presidents Kabila, Kagame, and Museveni to engage in a direct and honest dialogue in pursuit of a political resolution to the immediate hostilities. We believe it is critical that any resolution to the crisis include holding the M23 leadership accountable for their human rights abuses and violations of international humanitarian law.
We underscore our support for the UN Security Council’s November 17 statement. We support the Council’s call for additional sanctions against the M23 leadership and its demand that any and all outside support and supplying of equipment to the M23 cease immediately.
We underscore the importance of a long-term solution to the instability in the eastern DRC. A durable solution will require security sector reform in the DRC and political dialogue with Rwanda and Uganda and the other relevant states in the region to address the root causes of the crisis.

PRN: 2012/1827

AdamG

11-21-2012, 05:36 AM

UN evacuating 625 non-essentials from Goma
http://www.mediacongo.net/show.asp?doc=25801

M-A Lagrange

11-21-2012, 05:51 AM

Uganda blames leaked U.N. report for escalation in Congo conflict
(Reuters) - Uganda on Tuesday blamed the escalation of fighting in eastern Congo on a leaked U.N. report that accused it and Rwanda of supporting Congolese rebels, a document Kampala said damaged its mediation efforts.

Uganda has vigorously denied the U.N. charges, which emerged in October, and Junior Foreign Affairs Minister Asuman Kiyingi said Kampala had been forced to retreat from its mediating role.

The so-called M23 rebels entered parts of the eastern Congolese city of Goma on Tuesday. On Monday, Rwanda, which also denies the U.N. accusations, accused the government in Kinshasa of shelling its territory, ratcheting up tensions in the Great Lakes region.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/11/20/uk-congo-democratic-uganda-idUKBRE8AJ0FW20121120

The UNSC a peace spoiler?
In fact, in that case, some how, may be

Stan

11-21-2012, 06:54 AM

Well, that's settles it then. :D

Adam,
Was kinda hoping you got my strange sense of humor :)

Also, I'd recommend reading some of the earlier posts in this thread.

Thanks... been reading and also directly witnessing. Carl is right, the DRC is a weird place and most agree that it is also a great place to test failure of policy and goodwill.

Actually our E&E point is Kigali and the same organizations that pin blame on Rwanda are the same that recommend Kigali as a safe destination (security of equipment and personnel is thankfully not politically sensitive). I've driven the estimated 10 hours from Goma to Bukavu and even on semi-hard surface to Uganda. Both options make Russian roulette safer to perform.

M-A Lagrange

11-21-2012, 08:43 AM

I don't know if that threat is the best place but may be it is time to initiate a discussion on military coordiation between main western powers and Great Lakes peace spoilers.

There is no way to diminish the atrocities of 1994. But may it is time to reconsider the out comes of AFRICOM programs in Great Lakes region. Uganda already used its involvement in Somalia, South Sudan and on the LRA track as leverage and Rwanda is using its participation in Darfur and seat in UNSC.
May be it's time to look at how such military cooperation programs are being instrumentalised?

Stan

11-21-2012, 04:27 PM

It would be far cheaper and simpler to remove any military entity in the DRC to include their civil guard and police. Their functions and means are clearly not helping.

The only way I see a return to normalcy would be to recolonize the country. It would take decades to return the DRC to the state it was in when I arrived in 84. Even then most Belgians told me it was already too late to bring K-town back.

The UN is spending 1.2 million annually with a 20,000-strong mission and yet, has failed to stop the violence, and ended up in scandals. Lately, they can’t even be mandated to defeat a 1,000-man M23 with attack helicopters.

The US under the watchful eye of AFRICOM has recently spent 50 or 60 million trying to train 750 Congolese to behave and not rape, pillage and plunder. But the elimination of the LRA was hot and cash was abundant. Generally when we use USG cash for training we have to vet all the participants for human rights violations. Generally ? So, we went about business anyway similar to the Chinese who could give a sierra about human rights.

The DRC and UN labels Rwandan president Kagame as a warmonger, but yet he was named the African Peace Personality of 2012 and in October Rwanda was elected one of three countries to take up a non-permanent place on the 15-member UN Security Council. What ?

Honestly, there is no governance, they have never experienced free and fair elections, and the military has always been a dull tool in the shed for the government to use and not pay. We can’t replace something that never existed and no amount of money will suffice.

carl

11-21-2012, 04:29 PM

Ok, but that same metric work for MONUSCO? They seem sort of hide-bound and maybe paralyzed. In any event, moot since MONUSCO still holds the airport.

Nothing would surprise me. If the UN still holds the airport, I suspect it is because M23 (Rwanda) allows them to keep it. I was talking to a friend of mine and we figured that it would not be at all implausible if those UN attack helos didn't go anywhere because of a deal. 'You allow us to stay here and we won't strafe you and shoot rockets at you anymore even though we were doing that this morning.' 'Ok. Fine with us and also you don't see all those airplanes coming in and going out nor do you check their cargoes.' 'Ok. Fine with us.'

The Goma airport by the way is something else. The north end of the runway is (or was when I last saw it) a wall of lava I think about 30' high. That's it. That's the over run area. And they run commercial jets in and out of there.

I never liked Goma much. It was always cloudy with a volcano smoking or glowing to the north. It's like a place where God feels a need to constantly remind you who the real boss is.

Stan

11-21-2012, 04:37 PM

It was a mere compromise in 94 when the UN was purportedly in charge. It took some fancy footwork to keep that going.

Not even the Western powers could come to terms all the while the Zairois were stealing everything that was not bolted down.

Goma is a place that cannot be explained on paper. One has to experience it first hand before it remotely becomes clear.

Carl, Goma gives me nightmares to this day !

Nothing would surprise me. If the UN still holds the airport, I suspect it is because M23 (Rwanda) allows them to keep it. I was talking to a friend of mine and we figured that it would not be at all implausible if those UN attack helos didn't go anywhere because of a deal. 'You allow us to stay here and we won't strafe you and shoot rockets at you anymore even though we were doing that this morning.' 'Ok. Fine with us and also you don't see all those airplanes coming in and going out nor do you check their cargoes.' 'Ok. Fine with us.'

The Goma airport by the way is something else. The north end of the runway is (or was when I last saw it) a wall of lava I think about 30' high. That's it. That's the over run area. And they run commercial jets in and out of there.

I never like Goma much. It was always cloudy with a volcano smoking or glowing to the north. It's like a place where God feels a need to constantly remind you who the real boss is.

carl

11-21-2012, 04:40 PM

M-A: That is a good point about Uganda and Rwanda using us as much as we are using them.

M-A & Stan: Do you think that, over a period of time, decades maybe and slowly, the DRC may be divided up amongst the neighboring countries?

carl

11-21-2012, 04:44 PM

Carl, Goma gives me nightmares to this day !

It spooked me a little when it was all peaceful. I can't imagine how what you and Tom saw added to that.

Stan

11-21-2012, 05:22 PM

Carl,
If you mean the return of the AFDL with Zairian political assistance to oust the Pres, then yes. But the DRC has come too far for a repeat performance and I doubt the greedy politicians want another taste of slight freedom and pissed off Ugandan and Rwandan forces.

M-A: That is a good point about Uganda and Rwanda using us as much as we are using them.

M-A & Stan: Do you think that, over a period of time, decades maybe and slowly, the DRC may be divided up amongst the neighboring countries?

M-A Lagrange

11-21-2012, 05:44 PM

I am not in Gods secrets but there are persistent rumors of M23 taking control of Bukavu by tomorrow evening.

Stan: Going for regime change is may be cheaper on paper but will not bring any of what you metion: free and fair elections, professional army and police, end of impunity and corruption.
That said, there is a need for a regime change but I doubt a regime change initiated by Rwanda and Uganda will be well accepted. What is needed is a Congolese stand up against its oppressing governments not something coming from outside.

What I see for the moment is "someone" targetting mineral rich territories of North and South Kivu. Also going Bukavu is not really the shortest road to Kinshasa. To Lubumbashi may be...:rolleyes:

It does not change that a debat on military cooperation (from US but also from others) to non democratic regimes in Great Lakes must take place if we want this part of the world to be peaceful.

The division of DRC is an option several dream of in Great Lakes but also abroad. If that would be benefic to a small minority, I see more problems than solutions in this on the long run. Negotiated Regional agreement seems to be much simplier and feasible and also much cheaper in terms of human life cost.
But since when do we really care of human lives?

Concerning MONUSCO... Just don't get me started. :eek:

Carl: A light correction: MONUSCO is present on Goma airport, this does not mean they are the ones in power. ;)

davidbfpo

11-21-2012, 07:20 PM

The BBC News today had an interview with a UN official in DRC, he explained their role was to support the DRC's armed forces; so if they fled Goma the UN could not act and now they would protect the local population. Not yet found a reference to this interview on the BBC's website.

Amidst the BBC's reports is this:
the peacekeepers are perceived as ineffectual, both by the people they are mandated to protect, and by the rebels themselves.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18969062

From the BBC's UN reporter:
The DR Congo peacekeepers - known by their acronym Monusco - are authorised to use force to protect civilians and support Congolese army operations against rebel groups and militias competing for control of mineral wealth in the lawless east of the country.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20422340

What a bizarre situation for the UN to be. Doubtless the result of a mandate decided in New York and after discussions with the troop contributors.

Incidentally the majority are from the Indian sub-continent; tbeen he UN data has not updated since May 2011:http://monusco.unmissions.org/Default.aspx?tabid=10688&language=en-US

AdamG

11-21-2012, 07:39 PM

I love it when a thread goes weird with primary source input. :D

What I see for the moment is "someone" targetting mineral rich territories of North and South Kivu. Also going Bukavu is not really the shortest road to Kinshasa. To Lubumbashi may be...:rolleyes:

Cui bono? The Chinese have alot to lose if the current government can't make good on their contracts (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/2403712/Chinas-4bn-drive-to-buy-Africas-mineral-wealth.html).

Golly, what's down near Lubumbashi? (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/african-and-mideast-business/anvil-acquisition-helps-minmetals-turn-the-corner-in-congo/article4217145/)

China has called for talks between related parties to solve the crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) where refugees are fleeing a rebel-captured city. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying made the appeal Wednesday at a press briefing when commenting on the deterioration of the security situation in the eastern part of the DR Congo, after rebels captured a provincial capital.She said talks should be based on respecting and protecting the African country's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/745698.shtml

Meanwhile,

Goma's fall: Could UN troops in Congo have done more to prevent it?

The ease Tuesday with which rebels overran Goma, one of DR Congo's largest cities, underscores UN peacekeepers' 'difficult problem': their limited mandate.

In the days before Goma fell, Monusco said that it sent helicopters to open fire on rebel positions to try to slow or halt their advance.
UN helicopter gunships flew 17 sorties, firing 500 rockets and four missiles in the defence of the town, the United Nations said on Wednesday in a statement giving its account of the battle. Two South African peacekeepers were injured, it added.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2012/1121/Goma-s-fall-Could-UN-troops-in-Congo-have-done-more-to-prevent-it

Stan

11-21-2012, 07:39 PM

Stan: Going for regime change is may be cheaper on paper but will not bring any of what you mention: free and fair elections, professional army and police, end of impunity and corruption.
That said, there is a need for a regime change but I doubt a regime change initiated by Rwanda and Uganda will be well accepted. What is needed is a Congolese stand up against its oppressing governments not something coming from outside.

Hey M-A,
I may not have made myself clear with the above post. I wanted to say that no amount of paper or money will bring about what the Congolese have ever yet to have. They did enjoy such privileges during the colonial days, but, for obvious reasons the politicians were not happy with that. I certainly was not advocating a regime change from any foreign entity. You are absolutely correct - only the Congolese, all 70 million, are the only ones capable of change that they can live with.

Also going Bukavu is not really the shortest road to Kinshasa. To Lubumbashi may be...:rolleyes:

:D Even by 707 Bukavu to Kin was almost impossible !

Stan

11-21-2012, 07:57 PM

Incidentally the majority are from the Indian sub-continent; tbeen he UN data has not updated since May 2011:http://monusco.unmissions.org/Default.aspx?tabid=10688&language=en-US

David,
Not sure if this is what you were looking for regarding UN data (http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/missions/monusco/facts.shtml)

Regards, Stan

carl

11-21-2012, 08:07 PM

Carl: A light correction: MONUSCO is present on Goma airport, this does not mean they are the ones in power. ;)

You are of course right and I stand corrected. They stay in their areas. What a sight that would be, the M23 unit that the attack helos hit may be camped out at the airport right next to the ramp where those helos are parked.

This is a question for Stan and M-A and anybody else. Let's say M23 takes Bukavu. Then Rwanda would have all the land surrounding Lake Kivu. Now if they decided they wanted to hang on to that and not give it back, would anybody care and actually put any pressure on them to give it back? The FARDC certainly couldn't do anything about it. My question isn't about whether it would be right or wrong or wise or unwise it is about practicability of the thing. If Rwanda decided to keep that part of the Congo, would anybody care or make any real effort to make them give it back?

Oh I meant to add, I liked Bukavu just about as much as I disliked Goma. They aren't all that far apart but it just didn't seem as menacing.

M-A Lagrange

11-21-2012, 09:10 PM

To understand the actual situation, I recommand to read those 3 doc:

The last report from the UN panel of experts
http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/2012/843

The report on M23 CNDP roots from Jason Stearn
http://riftvalley.net/resources/file/RVI%20Usalama%20Project%201%20CNDP-M23.pdf

The ICG report on M23 and roots causes of its creation
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/central-africa/dr-congo/b091-eastern-congo-why-stabilisation-failed.aspx

With the 3 of them you can make your idea of what is the situation, who are the M23 and what they try to achieve.
None of those reports have all the truth and everyone is invited to pick what he believes is the best bite of each of those reports and make his mind.

Stan

11-21-2012, 09:40 PM

Carl,
My personal opinion is total stalemate. Even back in the 80s when we gave the DRC USN swift ships to patrol lake Kivu, supposedly against Rwandan trade, all the Zairian government in Kinshasa did was complain. They had the USG to back all that whining though.

M23 has roughly 1,000 men, women and children. You can't hold Goma and travel on foot or jeep to Bukavu and take it too (and then hold it). Running through a small city and declaring it yours is strange. Not sure how this all pans out but I can't see approx. 500 staying in Goma and holding it while the other 500 march to Bukavu and take it, and, hold it. At that point you have little left to walk onward to K-town or Lubumbashi, or wherever.

I like this passage from M-A's links. Great idea full of thought, but the current aid suspensions from most of us is so minuscule that it's not even worth thinking about. If the USG turned off the 2 million this year that would hurt. So instead, we turned off 200K in military-related aid. Geez that must of hurt :rolleyes:

If international donors and African mediators persist in managing the crisis rather than solving it, it will be impossible to avoid such repetitive cycles of rebellions in the Kivus and the risk of large-scale violence will remain. Instead, to finally resolve this conflict, it is essential that Rwanda ends its involvement in Congolese affairs and that the reconstruction plan and the political agreements signed in the Kivus are properly implemented. For these things to happen Western donors should maintain aid suspension against Rwanda until the release of the next report of the UN group of experts, in addition to issuing a clear warning to the Congolese authorities that they will not provide funding for stabilisation and institutional support until the government improves political dialogue and governance in both the administration and in the army in the east, as recommended by Crisis Group on several previous occasions.

M-A Lagrange

11-21-2012, 10:25 PM

Now it's getting weird for real but here comes the solution:

Museveni, Kagame demand M23 rebels leave Goma
In solidarity with the Congolese people and their counterparts, President Yoweri Museveni and President Kagame made it clear that even if there were legitimate grievances by the mutinying group known as the M23, they cannot accept expansion of this war or entertain the idea of overthrowing the legitimate government of the DRC or undermining its authority. Therefore, the M23 rebel group must immediately stop its offensive and pull out of Goma. A plan to this end is being communicated to them.
http://www.newvision.co.ug/news/637495-museveni-kagame-demand-m23-rebels-leave-goma.html

As Stan just said: M23 does not have the capacities human and logistic to hold even Goma. According to MONUSCO and several credible sources, when M23 launched the first wave of the offensive on thursday 15, they were 500 and lost 150 men. They were finished.
On saturday they suddently became 2500/3000 men strong with heavy artillery, night googles and anti aircraft weapons... "someone" was helping. (See my previous post to make your mind on who).
And now they are back at less than 350 men and alone...

Diplomacy has his ways...

davidbfpo

11-21-2012, 10:40 PM

David, not sure if this is what you were looking for regarding UN data (http://www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/missions/monusco/facts.shtml)

Regards, Stan

Stan,

I started there and then looked for details, hence my link.

M-A Lagrange

11-22-2012, 03:38 PM

Humanitarian suffering set to worsen across eastern Congo following fall of Goma, Oxfam warns

“The world is watching Goma but there are many towns and villages across eastern Congo completely forgotten and run by predatory men with guns. Across vast areas, people are stranded with little or no protection from security services. As the violence intensifies the UN must do all it can to protect Congolese civilians caught in the middle. Women and men have suffered too much for too long; they want security and the chance to get on with their lives. They must not be ignored.”
http://www.oxfamamerica.org/press/pressreleases/humanitarian-suffering-set-to-worsen-across-eastern-congo-following-fall-of-goma-oxfam-warns-1?utm_campaign=pressrelease&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

KingJaja

11-25-2012, 07:34 AM

Please what did the Congolese Army do with all its AFRICOM training?

Stan

11-25-2012, 07:58 AM

Please what did the Congolese Army do with all its AFRICOM training?

Hey Kingjaja,

According to this (http://kinshasa.usembassy.gov/pressreleases_english_07122012b.html), a lot of money went into specific training and looks great on paper.

U.S. Africa Command provides training to the Congolese Armed Forces, focusing especially on the areas of rule of law, respect for human rights and developing leadership skills. It has also trained the 391st light infantry battalion, which was subsequently deployed to LRA-affected areas of the DRC. In addition, AFRICOM provides humanitarian assistance aimed at countering sexual and gender-based violence.

But then, similar to what all Western powers witnessed as far back as 1985, hungry soldiers (http://www.stripes.com/congolese-battalion-trained-with-purpose-but-armed-mostly-with-promises-1.144478) are not the way to go..

“By noon, they’ve reached their training threshold,” said Lt. Drew Giacomucci, a U.S. sailor based in Rota, Spain, who is helping train Congolese troops in de-mining techniques.

For example, in September, when the U.S. stopped providing food for the battalion at the camp, transferring that responsibility to the Congolese government, meals abruptly dropped from three a day to just one.

Lt. Col. John Pierre Molengo, the commander of the Kisangani camp, downplayed the significance of the food and salary problems, instead blaming U.S. troops who introduced a standard that is difficult to match.

KingJaja

11-25-2012, 06:02 PM

Stan,

If you remember, I talked about this many months ago. We've seen it in Mali and now in Congo DRC. Africa's problems are not "security related", they are economic/political.

No amount of training will help.

M-A Lagrange

11-26-2012, 01:14 PM

There are some great pictures of the war in DRC: (Be careful some are chocking)
http://www.vice.com/read/the-m23-advance-throughout-the-congo-as-innocents-run-for-their-lives?utm_source=vicetwitterus#the-m23-advance-throughout-the-congo-as-innocents-run-for-their-lives/82826?&_suid=135393453717106443476321108185

This will recall pictures of the past to all those who've been in DRC in the past.

and an interresting piece on why Uganda and Rwanda are creating insecurity in DRC

M23 tragedy manufactured by Rwanda and Uganda
Both Gen. Museveni and Gen. Kagame have mastered the art of “spin.” Gen. Museveni’s National Resistance Army (NRA) contributed to massacres of civilians in Luwero region during Uganda’s civil war in the 1980s. Later, Gen. Museveni ordered the skulls of victims to be piled into a mountain and claimed ousted president Milton Obote’s army and people from the northern part of Uganda in general were responsible for all the atrocities. Gen. Museveni was received as Uganda’s “savior.”
Ugandans today know all his tricks.
The pair will never take their eyes off Congo’s immense mineral and natural resource wealth. What’s more, by maintaining a permanent state of chaos in Congo, Kagame and Museveni are able to divert international attention from political repression from their respective countries.
http://sfbayview.com/2012/m23-tragedy-manufactured-by-rwanda-and-uganda/

AdamG

11-28-2012, 10:21 PM

Conflict Minerals in Your Mobile—Why Congo's War Matters
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49961559

M-A Lagrange

11-30-2012, 03:04 PM

An excellent paper on DRC:

Time for Impatience in Congo

Instead of agreeing to compete on business terms, elites from powerful ethnic groups have for decades, in collusion with factions of the Congolese and neighboring governments, been organized into mafias. They have built market share and acquired titles, concessions and licenses from corrupt officials, run protection rackets and ensured that most markets remain black.
…
No level of international pressure is going to eliminate the core business rivalries between elites from the Tutsi, Nande and Mushi ethnic groups, just to mention three of most prominent. Nor will it eradicate their ties to Congolese, Rwandan or Ugandan military and political factions. There is a deep and long game of influence being played here. Non-regional internationals lack the skills, knowledge, wits and commitment to play at that level.
But the international community must nonetheless try to get it right this time. Instead of acting as a broker between interests in a game way over its head, it must make itself the champion of the civilian population, demanding that rivalries be demilitarized; that militias be disarmed; that the hapless and corrupt Congolese national army be reduced to a tiny core of vetted units and rebuilt from scratch; and that the political system be rethought to take into account local aspirations.
This latter point is vital. The present Constitution allows for a measure of decentralized administration but falls short of devolving any real authority. A fully federal system might simply displace the seat of corruption and mafia influence to the provinces, but elected, empowered provincial and local assemblies would be better placed to negotiate and broker local power relations.
…
A new political dispensation negotiated with civilian participation would almost surely lead to a measure of federalism and provide a local framework for local issues to be resolved. It has only been in recent decades that armed hysteria has replaced deal-making and compromise.
Implementation of such a deal will be hard, and will require solid assurances that international donor resources will be there to back it up. To succeed, the international community must say, in effect, we’re willing to back any reasonable solution as long as it includes rapid demilitarization, as well as meaningful involvement by communities, including women. It must include arrangements for equitable and transparent commercial relations within Congo and with its neighbors. It must promise international-justice action against anyone who works against the agreement by committing abuses. And the United Nations forces must be relieved of their misguided focus on supporting the national army and revert to their previous role as objective policeman.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/29/opinion/time-for-impatience-in-congo.html?_r=0

davidbfpo

11-30-2012, 03:51 PM

Three articles on DRC and Rwanda, two in FP, one by Jason Stearns, ex-UN expert on the Congo and one refers to another blogsite where Jason Stearns is the author.

Rwandan Ghosts: Benghazi isn't the biggest blight on Susan Rice's record, by Jason Stearns:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/11/29/rwandan_ghosts?page=full

In Rebel Country: How did 1,000 skinny militiamen in rubber boots conquer a city of 1 million people in a matter of hours?:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/11/27/the_fall_of_goma?page=full

This one I liked, the first is historical and aimed at US policy-making.

The third is really a pointer to Jason Stearns blogsite:
The Rift Valley Institute's Usalama Project is delighted to announce the launch of the first two reports in a series of publications on armed groups in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). You can download both reports from our website.

The first Usalama report is an account of the origins and trajectory of the new M23 rebellion and its alleged relationship with the Rwandan government. The second report traces the deeper history of conflict in the CNDP's and M23's stronghold, North Kivu province.

Link:http://congosiasa.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/introducing-usalama-project.html

M-A Lagrange

12-01-2012, 05:50 PM

Another good piece on M23 and their real motives by IPIS.

Mapping Conflict Motives: M23

Download the full report at: http://www.ipisresearch.be/att/20121130_Mapping_Conflict_Motives_M23.pdf

Antwerp, 30/11/2012 - In light of the recent occupation of Goma by M23 and the renewed risk of large-scale armed conflict in the DRC, IPIS is publishing an update to its 2007-2010 ‘mapping conflict motives’ report series focussing specifically on the intentions of M23.

The M23 rebels display clear political ambition and a tendency to establish political control over territory, while challenging Kinshasa’s authority – strategic interests they might share with Rwanda.

When M23 was created, it claimed that it was seeking the correct and complete implementation of an agreement signed between the CNDP and the Congolese Government on 23 March 2009. After the capture of Bunagana and Rutshuru, its demands changed. By November, grievances regarding the alleged lack of implementation of the 23 March 2009 agreement featured less and less prominently in M23’s discourse.
M23’s strategy on the battlefield does not indicate that protecting the Tutsi population is its most urgent concern. Likewise, its proclaimed intention to “neutralise” the FDLR is not apparent from its military actions. Furthermore, it is striking that M23 currently does not control any important mining areas and has not attacked any mines, and thus, for now, is not seeking to maximise its profits from the mineral trade. However M23’s control over Goma is characterised by targeted looting and the facilitation of illegal exports of mineral stocks.
Since 2004, IPIS has published various reports on the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The European Network for Central Africa (EURAC) assessed that an accurate understanding of M23’s motives among stakeholders will be crucial for dealing with the current escalation of conflict. IPIS volunteered to provide such analysis. The content of the report does not necessarily reflect the position of EURAC.
The researchers wish to stress that the situation on the ground is subject to constant change. M23 is a recent movement, created less than a mere seven months prior to this analysis; there are new developments almost every day. Most of the information used exists in the public domain. When insufficient sources were available, additional information was gathered by IPIS researchers working on related topics in South Kivu, and through telephone interviews.

M-A Lagrange

12-01-2012, 10:18 PM

Senate votes to sanction those helping M23 in Eastern Congo
Amendment imposing an asset freeze and visa ban on those supporting the M23 added to Defense Authorization bill

WASHINGTON – The United States Senate unanimously passed an amendment Thursday night imposing sanctions on those providing financial, material, or technological support to the M23 rebel group in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Amendment 3199 to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) was introduced by Senators Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Chris Coons (D-Del.), Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), John Boozman (R-Ark.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), and Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.).

“M23 has demonstrated an unconscionable disregard for human life and Congo's territorial integrity and seems determined to sink central Africa in another deadly, devastating war that could set the region back a generation,” Senator Coons said. “The actions of M23 rebels, as well as those who aid and abet the M23, are deplorable and must be stopped immediately. These sanctions are designed to stop the illicit and dangerous support the M23 is receiving from those seeking to destabilize the region. I applaud Senator Durbin for taking the lead on this amendment, and am pleased the Senate spoke with one voice in unanimously supporting its passage.” Senator Coons is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on African Affairs.

“The civil war in eastern Congo is the most lethal conflict since the Second World War and its barbarism defies description,” Senator Durbin said. “Last week, a well-armed rebel forces occupied the city of Goma and have set their sights on Kinshasa, Congo’s capital. The rebels, known for brutal violence and led by known war criminals, have the potential to destabilize the entire nation. As the violence continues to escalate, it is clear that the rebels are benefitting from strategic and material support from outside forces. This amendment freezes the assets and implements a visa ban for any person providing such troubling support. Our goal is to hasten an end to the violence by starving the rebels of their key lines of support.” Senator Durbin is a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on African Affairs.
http://www.coons.senate.gov/newsroom/releases/release/senate-votes-to-sanction-those-helping-m23-in-eastern-congo

AdamG

12-03-2012, 12:43 AM

GOMA, Congo (AP) — Rebels believed to be backed by Rwanda completed their retreat from Congo's eastern provincial capital on Saturday less than two weeks after taking control of the strategic city, a military official said. The retreat, however, may be tentative after a leader for the M23 rebels said they now wanted to negotiate with the government within 48 hours.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jCvm91dKHIT9bsKUsYDzexe3rMpw?docId=8cecc45a5 3884706be924c8154811e55

M-A Lagrange

12-04-2012, 03:42 PM

Here is the link to the Group of Experts letter to the UN Security Council incriminating Rwanda in the battle of Goma.
http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/526823/goe-letter-to-unsc-27-nov-2012-copy.pdf?ocid=socialflow_twitter_africa

And here is an article on how Susan Rice made sure that Rwanda will not be mentioned in the UN resolution on M23:
http://turtlebay.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/12/03/susan_rice_dialed_down_the_pressure_on_rwanda

M-A Lagrange

12-13-2012, 07:44 AM

There was a DRC hearing at the House of Foreign affairs.
Please find below the link to the debats.

House Cmte. Looks at Conflict in Congo
WASHINGTON, DC
Tuesday, December 11, 2012

A House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee takes a look at the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Three UN reports this year confirm that Rwanda is supporting rebels who have ravaged and continue to plague the eastern Congo region.

Witnesses at the hearing include; Johnnie Carson, assistant secretary of State, Bureau of African Affairs, John Prendergast, co-founder, Enough Project, Steve Hege, former member, U.N. Group of Experts on the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mvemba Dizolele, visiting http://www.c-span.org/Events/House-Cmte-Looks-at-Conflict-in-Congo/10737436502-1/

I let you make your mind...

Angie Mimi

12-29-2012, 04:05 AM

Please what did the Congolese Army do with all its AFRICOM training?
Yes. Indeed. There was a report in July that the elite, U.S.-trained 391st Light Infantry, which are aided by U.S. Special Forces, was on its way to Goma to help stop m23, but no follow-up report. Now they're in the C.A.R., but saying they have nothing to do with the fact that the government of the C.A.R. seems to be going down to well-trained, well-equipped, well-fed "rebels," while the U.S. diplomatic staff is evacuated to avoid another security failure like that in Benghazi.

Stan

12-30-2012, 04:00 PM

Yes. Indeed. There was a report in July that the elite, U.S.-trained 391st Light Infantry, which are aided by U.S. Special Forces, was on its way to Goma to help stop m23, but no follow-up report. Now they're in the C.A.R., but saying they have nothing to do with the fact that the government of the C.A.R. seems to be going down to well-trained, well-equipped, well-fed "rebels," while the U.S. diplomatic staff is evacuated to avoid another security failure like that in Benghazi.

Hi Angie and welcome aboard !

It is important to note that the training course held from December 2009 was in fact a Train the Trainer Course preparing commanders, officers, non-commissioned officers and a core group of instructors in the skills necessary to train, manage and lead a light infantry battalion. In February 2010 additional training included courses in small-unit tactics, communications, medical care and HIV/AIDS prevention and humanitarian demining. AND, the battalion received instruction on the respect of human rights, the prevention of sexual and gender-based violence, and the relationship between civilian and military authorities in a democratic society.

This in no way would prepare the entire 391st for mortal combat and I doubt would change the mentality of those soldiers. Sending them to Goma or the CAR would probably cause more harm than good.

Evacuating civilian embassy staff is a local decision with of course some blessing from Foggy Bottom. Doing so is far more prudent than a surprise similar to any incident since 1975 involving American Embassies and their personnel.

Have a Happy and Safe New Year !

M-A Lagrange

01-09-2013, 09:57 AM

Hello Mimi,

As Stan said, the training was not special forces; even if in DRC what modern armies call a light infantry battalion is called special forces. Basically it means they have been trained to do more than walking and salute...:cool:

On the M23 and FDLR front:

Treasury Sets Sanctions on DRC Militant Groups
04 January 2013

Washington — The U.S. Department of the Treasury has designated two militant groups fomenting violence and instability in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The action against Mouvement du 23 Mars (M23) and the Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR) was taken under Executive Order 13413, which targets people contributing to the DRC conflict.

M23 and the FDLR, operating in eastern DRC, have committed serious crimes involving the targeting of children, Treasury said in a January 3 press release. The crimes include recruitment as well as killing, maiming and sexual violence. M23 is also being designated for receiving arms and materiel related to military activities that have contributed directly to the conflict.

Under the designations, U.S. persons are prohibited from providing support to M23 and the FDLR, and any of their assets within U.S. jurisdiction must be frozen.

A credible body of evidence demonstrates support for M23 from the Rwandan government, including significant military and logistical support as well as operational and political guidance, Treasury said. The United States has repeatedly called for a permanent end to all support for M23 and the FDLR as well as other armed groups operating in the DRC.

“The United States is committed to working with the international community to end the violence perpetrated against children in the DRC and exposing those responsible for these atrocities,” said David S. Cohen, under secretary of the Treasury for terrorism and financial intelligence. “We also urge Rwanda to halt its assistance to M23 and prevent any and all forms of support to Congolese armed groups.”

M23 has recently taken control of large parts of eastern DRC. It is made up of forced recruits and rebels who mutinied from the DRC armed forces. The FDLR is led by Rwandan Hutus who were involved in the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Top commanders of both groups, M23’s Bosco Ntaganda and the FDLR’s Sylvestre Mudacumura, are wanted by the International Criminal Court.

Both groups have been actively recruiting and using children in armed conflict, Treasury said. They have been responsible for campaigns of horrific violence against civilians, and they have used their resources to undermine peace efforts in the region.

On December 31, 2012, the United Nations Security Council’s DRC Sanctions Committee, with the support of the United States, added M23 and the FDLR to its consolidated travel ban and asset-freeze list. The United States and the Security Council previously designated several leaders of M23 and the FDLR for their roles in the conflict.

Read more: http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/article/2013/01/20130104140647.html#ixzz2HT3s5BuG

But we still waiting for the Kampala negotiations between DRC gov and M23results...

M-A Lagrange

01-14-2013, 06:37 AM

And some comments from my part. But we basically share almost the same views.

Testimony: DOD AS Chollet at the “Update on the Evolving Security Situation in the DRC and Implications for US National Security” hearing before the House Armed Services Committee
While the DRC builds its own security capabilities, the United Nations
Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO) will continue to be essential in providing security for the civilian population in the DRC, enabling the Government of the DRC to focus on reform, and coordinating international SSR efforts.
[…]
The FARDC’s absorptive capacity for assistance is limited. The Ministry of
Defense has minimal bureaucratic structure and activities are often ad hoc.
Such statement really impose the question: why in the world would Kabila even try to build a security sector since he has 17000 UN peacekeepers to protect him and establish domestic security?
Once again, several seem to develop the misconception that UN or foreign forces can provide time to build an effective security sector in a failed state. Reality shows that it just gives more room for the government to ensure its grip over power and NOT conduct security sector reforms.

I will close by saying that these problems are significant, but so is the potential of a stable and secure DRC and Great Lakes region. If the Government of the DRC commits itself to reform, U.S. and international community assistance can help implement the needed reforms. President Kabila has indicated his determination to enact needed changes, but his vision must resonate throughout the DRC government to ensure that donors have a partner interested in working together for long-term success. Until that happens, reform will be minimal, and the prospects for instability will remain high.

Conditioning aid and cooperation to result should be the basic line, as well as coordination among security sector actors to avoid that recipient government screw up and conducts only “on the paper reforms”. Patience and long term views are necessary but imposing short term results a necessity.

Full testimony can be found there:
http://armedservices.house.gov/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=53f6d82a-60e5-41e0-9a59-1c745317e281

M-A Lagrange

01-18-2013, 03:50 PM

The lost rebelion of the ADF/Nalu

As described in the press revue, the ADF/Nalu are one if not the most unknown armed group in DRC. Their particularity, among many, is to be presented by Uganda authorities as an Islamist threat in the heart of Central Africa.
The ICG briefing on ADF/Nalu tries to make the distinction between the reallity and the myth of that threat.

Eastern Congo: The ADF-NALU’s Lost Rebellion
The Allied Democratic Forces-National Army for the Liberation of Uganda (Forces démocratiques alliées-Armée nationale de libération de l’Ouganda, ADF-NALU) is one of the oldest but least known armed groups in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the only one in the area to be considered an Islamist terrorist organisation. Although it does not represent the same destabilising threat as the 23 March Movement (M23), it has managed to stand its ground against the Congolese army since 2010. Created in the DRC in 1995 and located in the mountainous DRC-Uganda border area, this Congolese-Ugandan armed group has shown remarkable resilience attributable to its geostrategic position, its successful integration into the cross-border economy and corruption in the security forces. Therefore, before considering any further military action against the ADF-NALU, it would be wise to separate fiction from fact and instead pursue a course of weakening its socio-economic base while at the same time offering a demobilisation and reintegration program to its combatants.

Formed of an alliance of several armed groups supported by external actors (Mobutu Sese Seko’s Zaire and Hassan al-Turabi’s Sudan), the ADF-NALU initially fought the Ugandan government of Yoweri Museveni. However, despite its Ugandan origins, it never managed to gain a foothold in its own country and instead settled in eastern Congo, particularly in the remote mountainous border areas. There it became integrated into local communities, participated in cross-border trade and forged relationships with various armed groups in eastern Congo as well as with both Congolese and Ugandan civilian and military authorities. Given their location in this “grey zone”, the ADF-NALU’s lost combatants have been able to survive despite not winning a battle in over fifteen years and having been defeated several times, but never neutralised.

Due to the ADF-NALU’s leader, Jamil Mukulu, a Christian convert to Islam, the group has transformed from a purely Congolese-Ugandan problem into one with regional dimensions, as a component of the trend of radical Islamism in East Africa. However, little is known about such purported links between ADF-NALU and radical Islamist organisations in the region and the group’s allegiance to Islamism seems rather superficial.

The fight against armed groups in eastern Congo continues to be viewed through a military lens, but it would be wise to avoid another ineffective military operation. The International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), the UN, the DRC and Uganda should therefore adopt a different approach that seeks to:

Formulate an intelligence-based strategy to neutralise the ADF-NALU’s cross-border economic and logistical networks. The officers of the Joint Verification Mechanism deployed by the ICGLR in 2012 should work with the UN group of experts to produce a detailed study of these networks and use it to define an appropriate strategy for undermining the armed group’s economic and logistical base.
Include the leaders of ADF-NALU’s support networks, inside and outside the DRC, on the list of individuals subject to UN sanctions for their support of armed groups. Congolese and Ugandan military personnel colluding with these networks should be dealt with appropriately by the authorities of their country.
Rotate on a regular basis Congolese and Ugandan officers deployed in this region.
Introduce a disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) program for Congolese and Ugandan combatants who after investigation are found not to be responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity. MONUSCO should appeal to donors to fund the program for Congolese ADF-NALU combatants.
Authorise villagers in the Erengeti and Oïcha areas to resume work on their farms, which was suspended by the military authorities.http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/central-africa/dr-congo/b093-eastern-congo-the-adf-nalus-lost-rebellion.aspx

davidbfpo

01-26-2013, 02:27 PM

Catching up on my reading I found a short article by Richard Dowden in 'The Spectator' six weeks ago, it is a sad tale, truly the "dark heart" of Africa:http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8780181/the-sick-man-of-africa/

M-A Lagrange

01-27-2013, 10:39 AM

First of all, for those who would like to follow the situation on the ground, please find below a link to the ICG inter-active map, now available in english.
http://crisisgroup.be/maps/kivu-map/kivu-map-english-francais.html

On the ground nothing much new since November last year when the M23 rebel group took Goma, the largest city of North Kivu, during nearly a week, before stepping back under combined US and UK pressures on Rwanda.
On the diplomatic front, things are not moving neither in Kampala were DRC government and M23 are conducting a round of negotiations under the facilitation of ICGLR and mediated by Uganda, 2012 ICGLR chairman.

The interresting development of this massive failure of the UN mission in DRC is the "experimental" deployment of drones (Unarmed) to monitor the border between DRC and Rwanda.
Rwanda was first being extremely opposed to this proposition (Rwanda wants ‘clarity’ on UN drone plans for DR Congo, http://en.starafrica.com/news/rwanda-wants-clarity-on-un-drone-plans-for-dr-congo.html ; Rwanda opposes use of drones by the UN in eastern Congo, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/09/us-congo-democratic-un-rwanda-idUSBRE90802720130109), this against other ICGLR members as Uganda, which alledgely also provided support to M23. (Kinshasa, Kampala back U.N. plan for eastern Congo drones, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/11/us-congo-democratic-drones-idUSBRE90A11X20130111)

Finally, the Kagame regime agreed for a deployment of drones to support the Joint Verification Mechanism, which Rwanda is part of, and supposed to monitor the military and armed groups movements on the border.

Rwanda backs UN plan to deploy spy drones in eastern Congo

On Monday, Kagame, who had earlier opposed the UN plan to deploy the drones, said he had "no problem" with it.
"I have no problem... if they think it can help... it is up to them," Kagame told reporters in the Rwandan capital Kigali. However, he asked how the deployment of the drones in Congo would "contribute towards peace."
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/01/22/284886/rwanda-backs-un-drone-plan-for-congo/

An impressive Uturn from the more and more isolated Kigali regime who is now seeking to get back the budget aid that was frozen after the active support of the RPF to M23 was disclosed.

M-A Lagrange

02-05-2013, 08:35 PM

After the war comes the time for justice. After the fall of Goma comes the time for denoncing war crimes from both parties...

Here is the last press release from Human Right Watch:

http://www.hrw.org/news/2013/02/05/dr-congo-war-crimes-m23-congolese-army

jmm99

02-06-2013, 05:31 AM

MAL,

From your HRW link:

M23 Abuses During the Occupation of Goma

Human Rights Watch has documented at least 24 cases of summary executions by M23 fighters during the M23’s occupation of Goma and nearby areas, between November 19 and December 2. All but three of the victims were civilians.

Human Rights Watch research found that M23 rebels raped at least 36 women and girls in and around Goma during the same period, including at least 18 wives of army soldiers and a 10-year-old girl, who died from her wounds a day later.

The M23 forcibly recruited army soldiers and medical officers, police, and civilians into its ranks in violation of the laws of war, and took them to its military bases for “retraining.”

They also looted hundreds of homes, offices, and vehicles.

Congolese Army Abuses During Rebels’ Advance

Human Rights Watch documented at least 76 cases of rape of women and girls by Congolese army soldiers from November 20 to 30 in the town of Minova and nearby Bwisha, Buganga, Mubimbi, Kishinji, Katolo, Ruchunda, and Kalungu. The victims included women as old as 60 and girls as young as 13. The total number of victims is probably much higher since many women were afraid to report being raped or seek medical assistance.
...
The military prosecutor in South Kivu province is investigating abuses by soldiers in and around Minova. Eleven soldiers have been arrested so far. Seven were accused of robbery, extortion, violations of military orders, collusion with the enemy, and other offenses. One is also being investigated for an alleged rape on December 24 in Minova. Two soldiers were arrested for the murder of the 14-year-old boy, and two others for the rape of a girl and a woman in Buganga on December 4 and 5. To Human Rights Watch’s knowledge, the military prosecutor has not ordered the arrest of any military personnel believed to have been involved in the rapes between November 20 and 30 near Minova.

I've read Tom Odom's Journey into Darkness (http://www.amazon.com/Journey-into-Darkness-Williams-Ford-University/dp/1585444278/ref=tmm_hrd_title_0), a number of monographs and a short online course dealing with the Rwanda madness. Nothing I read about the Goma area will shock or surprise me.

Being there, however, would be a far different story - where the carnage will hit the eyes, between the eyes and up the nose.

If you have time, PM me re: my request post, Marc-Andre (http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showpost.php?p=144499&postcount=214).

Regards

Mike

davidbfpo

03-14-2013, 11:20 AM

An IISS Strategic Comment, which opens with:
Peace negotiations between the March 23 (M23) rebel movement and the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have been under way for three months. They follow a seven-month conflict in the east of the country, which started in May when former rebels in the Congolese army mutinied, citing the government's failure to implement the provisions of a 2009 peace deal, under which they had been integrated into the army.

In the first round of talks, the two sides agreed on an evaluation of the unsuccessful 23 March 2009 deal, from which the M23 took its name, outlining the provisions in the deal that had not been implemented, such as the creation of a national reconciliation mechanism. However, the next stage of negotiations – to establish a peace premised on the reintegration of rebel soldiers – has provoked confused reports. Different sources in Uganda and the DRC have suggested that a resumption of hostilities and a successful closure of the talks are both imminent. The reports likely reflect the structure of the M23, which has begun to splinter into two discrete factions.

It ends with, I would suggest with a lot of prayer required, as the "carrot & stick" approach is clearly not working. Referring to a twin-track peace process:
...their success is likely to depend entirely on levels of participation and the commitment of the international community, particularly the government of Rwanda, to ending over two decades of regional conflict.

Link:http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-19-2013/march/peace-talks-in-eastern-drc-face-uncertain-outcome/

M-A Lagrange

03-14-2013, 02:46 PM

Thanks David for this post.

I would like to bring a light "eclairage" on what is going on in Eastern DRC for those who do not follow on a daily base the events there.

In fact things have gone a little amok in the past month since the regional powers (ICRGL, SADC, AU) and the UN signed a peace agreement framework under the patronage of the United Nation Secretary General in Addis Abeba on February 24 and supported by USA, UK, Belgium, France and EU.

Here is a link to US embassy comment on the Peace Agreement

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Office of the Spokesperson
February 25, 2013
STATEMENT BY PATRICK VENTRELL, ACTING DEPUTY SPOKESPERSON
Signature of Framework Agreement for the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Region
The United States strongly supports the initiative of the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and ten other African heads of state in signing the Peace, Security, and Cooperation Framework for the DRC and the Region, witnessed by three African regional bodies and the United Nations.
Read more: http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttrans/2013/02/20130225142998.html#ixzz2NWUYkt7i
http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttrans/2013/02/20130225142998.html#axzz2NWUBzFY2

Following the signature of this peace agreement framework (which aims to enforce peace and stability resolutions taken and signed by the various actors of DRC conflict in the past) the M23 rebel group splitted in 2 to 3 parts.
The situation in the field is extremely complex and combats have erupted between M23 factions.
DRC government announced they wanted to sign a peace deal with M23 but as the situation went from "quite but unpredictable" (as the MONUSCO says) to complete chaos, the chances for this peace agreement between one wing of the M23 and Kinshasa has little chance to happen. Also, as M23 is divided, this peace deal will involve only one part of M23... Which means that 1 or 2 new armed groups will remain.

What is needed now is, as IISS says, a strong committement from all Adis Abeba peace agrement framework signatories to enforce and impose peace to armed groups in North Kivu. Which means in the immediat time a quick deployment of the "intervention brigade" the UNSG called for few weeks ago.

Ban calls on Security Council to authorize intervention brigade for DR Congo
5 March 2013 – Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon today called on the Security Council to authorize the deployment of a special force within the current United Nations peacekeeping operation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to address imminent threats to peace and security.

“The security situation remains fragile – and demands urgent actions,” Mr. Ban said as he briefed the Council.http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=44290#.UUHdBxenC8A

The question now is can the population wait for the UNSC to take the time to discuss at will a new mandate for MONUSCO or should that force come immediatly to potect the civilian populations as it is stated in MONUSCO actual mandate and give a break to the population who are under fire since a week now?

Stan

03-14-2013, 07:05 PM

M-A, Salut !

Why do we continue to have peace agreements and ceremonies in the DRC when we know that a signature means absolutely nothing ?

Speaking to reporters after the meeting, the Secretary-General said the UN has done its utmost to broker an agreement that can finally break the horrendous cycles of violence. “The onus is now on the signatories to show strong, consistent and sustained leadership.”

Do we really believe that an African leader's signature and word translates into a brokered (and binding) agreement ? Even then, the current leader rarely speaks for the remainder of the clan. Probably why Mobutu resided over 1,000 miles away from Kinshasa - knowing his reign on authority was limited to payday festivities :D

I'm happy to see that the Intervention Brigade is not reliant on the Congolese Army. I only wonder what their mandate is, as previous versions did not prevent rape, pillage and plunder regardless of UN personnel numbers, helicopters, etc.

M-A Lagrange

03-15-2013, 06:06 AM

I'm happy to see that the Intervention Brigade is not reliant on the Congolese Army. I only wonder what their mandate is, as previous versions did not prevent rape, pillage and plunder regardless of UN personnel numbers, helicopters, etc.

Hello Stan,

Well, the interrest of that new peace agreement frame work is that it is supposed to have benchmarks. Meaning if they do not enforce the peace and stability, countries of the Great Lakes (including DRC) will have to face sanctions.
Now the issue is to know what sanctions they could face...:rolleyes:

To answer dirctly to your question about the intervention brigade mandate: they do not have a mandate for the momment and several key players in MONUSCO are quite against it. Why? Because such brigade means they would have to make war... And they were in DRC to do tourism!

I think this new agreement is a good thing as most of the countries of Central and Southern Africa are quite tired of the Great Lakes mess and are arknowledging that it is not just a DRC problem but rather a sub-regional problem. DRC is the country which has to do reforms and progress immediatly but its troubeling neigbours must too on a mid term (3 to 4 years from now).

And let say: if this is the solution for having at least "stability" and a extremly low unrest in Eastern DRc without external interferences... I go for it.
But this means real benchmarks and a new anti armed groups strategy based on CT rather than COIN in a country where government does not want functional administration and institutions. This coupled with a decentralised grass root approch to prevent conflict at communities level.

M-A Lagrange

03-19-2013, 07:16 AM

For those who follow DRc since the begining, it makes 10 years, at least, we are following Bosco Ntaganda war criminal records.
And today he is seeking asilum in US embassy in Kigali to be turned to ICC.

U.S. confirms Bosco Ntaganda turned himself in at U.S. Embassy in Kigali
The U.S. State Department confirmed on Monday that Rwandan-born former Congolese General Bosco Ntaganda, wanted by the International Criminal Court for suspected war crimes in Congo, has given himself up at the U.S. Embassy in Kigali.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/18/us-rwanda-warcrimes-usa-confirmation-idUSBRE92H0T620130318
:D:D:D (There is no eah super big happy smily)

The question now is: when will the US do what they advocate for: turn Bosco Ntaganda to ICC so he can be hold accontable for his crimes:
- enlistment of children under 15
- conscription of children under 15
- active use of children under 15 as combattants during hostilities,
- murder
- persecution over civilians
- pillaging

And that's only the crimes he is wanted for!

Stan

03-19-2013, 07:56 AM

M-A,
Indeed good news for the entire region !

According to a State Department (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2013/03/206377.htm) press briefing yesterday, the USG intends to honor Bosco's request :)

QUESTION: Okay. More importantly, there are reports that a Rwandan-born, former Congolese general, Bosco Ntaganda, has turned himself in to the U.S. Embassy in Kigali. Is there any truth to that?

MS. NULAND: I can confirm that this morning Bosco Ntaganda, an ICC indictee and leader of one of the M23 factions walked into U.S. Embassy Kigali. He specifically asked to be transferred to the ICC in The Hague. We’re currently consulting with a number of governments, including the Rwandan government, in order to facilitate his request.

QUESTION: Is it your anticipation then, following his request, that he will, indeed, be transferred to the ICC?

MS. NULAND: Again, that’s what he’s asked for. We want to facilitate that request. As you know, we strongly support the work that the ICC is doing to investigate the atrocities committed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and we are going to continue to work with the ICC in this matter.

QUESTION: There’d be no obstacle from your side then to transferring him to the ICC?

MS. NULAND: As I said, we’re working to facilitate the request that he has made.

carl

03-19-2013, 04:25 PM

M-A and Stan:

Why did he turn himself in? I imagine that somebody was going to kill him if he didn't so jail was preferable. But who was after him?

Stan

03-19-2013, 08:44 PM

Carl,
I can only speculate but based on what is already in print about him, “not very well liked nor educated, and feared by most locals”, I would agree with you and better to hang out in The Hague and peacefully eat 3 squares a day on the UN.

He was only ever a leader of a splintered group and you know as well as we do, that the DRC is no place to be hungry and hunted. Similar to General Mahélé in the 90’s, Bosco would end up being eaten by his own.

Most would argue that the Zaire we know is long gone. I beg to differ and see very little change.

Regards, Stan

M-A Lagrange

03-20-2013, 06:12 AM

Carl,

The "mystery" of Bosco Ntaganda redition will come to light with time. What seems already proven is that someone was waiting for him in Rwanda when he crossed the border.
The Congolese have been accusing Rwanda to host Bosco as soon as Saturday.

Rwanda denies hosting rebel sought by ICC

Rwandan Foreign Minister Louise Mushikiwabo dismissed allegations by DR Congo government spokesman Lambert Mende who had said that Mr Ntaganda had crossed into Rwanda.
http://www.africareview.com/News/Rwanda-denies-hosting-rebel-sought-by-ICC/-/979180/1723210/-/x1edtc/-/index.html

Now it is repeated at will in the news papers, under anonyma, that Bosco feared for his life in Rwanda.

Report offers clues to warlord’s sudden surrender at U.S. Embassy

“I’m sure he was much more scared of us than the [US] embassy because he has caused some friction,” a senior Rwandan military official told the FT, adding that he believed Gen Ntaganda feared for his life. “The information we had consistently coming from his people was that he was heading deeper and deeper into the forest but that was a deception to our intelligence.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/03/18/report-offers-clues-to-rwandan-warlords-sudden-surrender-at-u-s-embassy/

I let you make up your mind, knowing Rwanda psyops/desinformation capacities.

The real question is what Rwanda will do with the other 500 to 700 M23 rebel fighters who entered Rwanda when Bosco was defeated by the Makenga wing.
For memories, they are war criminals under UN sanctions too.

jmm99

03-20-2013, 04:23 PM

...plus a change, plus c'est la meme chose...

Not Lady Gaga ...

... These Benguelas presently broke, and turned their backs, and a very great number of them were slain, and were taken captives, man, woman and child. The prince, Hombiangymbe, was slain, which was ruler of this country, and more than one hundred of his chief lords, and their heads presented and thrown at the feet of the great Gaga. The men, women and children that were brought in captive alive, and the dead corpses that were brought to be eaten, were strange to behold.
...
There were in the camp of the Gagas twelve captains. The first, called Imbe Calandola, their general, a man of great courage. He warreth all by enchantment, and taketh the Devil's counsel in all his exploits. He is always making of sacrifices- to the Devil, and doth know many times what shall happen unto him. He believeth that he shall never die but in the wars. There is no image among them, but he useth certain ceremonies. He hath straight laws to his soldiers : for, those that are faint-hearted, and turn their backs to the enemy, are presently condemned and killed for cowards, and their bodies eaten.
...
When they settle themselves in any country, they cut down as many palms as will serve them wine for a month and then as many more, so that in a little time they spoil the country. They stay no longer in a place than it will afford them maintenance. And then in harvest-time they arise, and settle themselves in the fruitfullest place they can find; and do reap their enemy's corn, and take their cattle. For they will not sow, nor plant, nor bring up any cattle, more than they take by wars.
...
The women are very fruitful, but they enjoy none of their children: for as soon as the woman is delivered of her child, it is presently buried quick [alive], so that there is not one child brought up in all this generation. But when they take any town they keep the boys and girls of thirteen or fourteen years of age as their own children. But the men and women they kill and eat. These little boys they train up in the wars, and hang a collar about their necks for a disgrace, which is never taken off till he proveth himself a man, and bring his enemy's head to the General : and then it is taken off and he is a freeman, and is called Gonso or soldier. This maketh them all desperate, and forward to be free, and counted men : and so they do increase. ...

So, how much has changed in four centuries ?

Ref: original source, Battell, "The Strange Adventures of Andrew Battel of Leigh in Essex," in Samuel Purchas, Purchas, Hir Pilgrimes (London, 1625), vol. 6; Hakluyt Society ed. E. G. Ravenstein, The Strange Adventures of Andrew Battel, of Leigh, in Angola and the Adjoining Regions (http://archive.org/details/strangeadventure00battrich) (London, 1901), pp. 19-35; cited by John Thornton, The African Experience of the "20. and Odd Negroes" Arriving in Virginia in 1619 (http://users.ettc.net/tah/Reading%20Assignments/Thornton,%20The%20African%20Experience.pdf) (The William and Mary Quarterly, 3rd Ser., Vol. 55, No. 3. (Jul., 1998), pp. 421-434).

Charles Taylor Sr received 50 years from the SL court (presently on appeal); and Charles (Chuckie) Taylor Jr received 97 years from a US court (affirmed on appeal). So, Bosco could be out of circulation for a long time - in accord with principles of retribution, reprobation and specific deterrence.

I question whether his eventual conviction (years away if it occurs at all) will have much impact (general deterrence) on the future conduct of other, modern-day "Gagas".

Since I started with Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alphonse_Karr), I might as well end with his comment when he was asked his opinion about abolition of capital punishment ... je veux bien que messieurs les assassins commencent ...

Does anyone feel that these "gentlemen", the murderers, will have a Damascus moment and begin not to murder ?

Good job, fellas, in providing me with education about subject matter that I've only read of.

Regards

Mike

Stan

03-21-2013, 06:23 PM

Hey Mike,

Where to start ?

Sent you a PM as some of my views are not exactly suitable herein.

What has changed since my time and recent sporadic trips to the region; little to nothing.
Infrastructure and basic human needs are not being met and education is stagnant. While communication and internet has grown exponentially, the locals are no more capable than they were in the late 90s.

Way back when herein we sarcastically used the phrase “You can take the man out of WAWA, but you can’t take the WAWA out of the man”. Regardless of what the West did and paid for (for political reasons) little would change and we paid little attention to local customs and courtesies. No amount of cash was going to change the local habitat (that money certainly wouldn’t go there and still doesn’t today).

I once sent an NCO away to the States for 18 months of both language and Infantry training. While he passed with flying colors, it didn’t take long before he returned to his old ways once back home. While most saw this as failure, I concluded that was exactly what would eventually happen.

If we are going to rule the place like the Belgian Congo, then be prepared for another 60 years of carrots and sticks with a painful and expensive venture. Otherwise, we would be better served by staying out.

Regards, Stan

M-A Lagrange

03-22-2013, 09:48 AM

Hello Mike, Stan,

I am affraid, I do not have the same reading of the situation as you have.

What has changed since my time and recent sporadic trips to the region; little to nothing.
That is true for the infrastructures but the institutional environment has changed a lot.
I am affraid that it is this "mobutu time style" reading of DRC actually political turmoil that has proven to be a break to any changes. (This is not pointed at you Stan, by the way).
Building a new capable political class and credible democratic environment was Mr Meece work as SRSG and he refused it. The people are there, there are others than Tshisekedi!
Democracy means regular regime change. International community should not be opposed because of old fashion understanding of the context.

I once sent an NCO away to the States for 18 months of both language and Infantry training. While he passed with flying colors, it didn’t take long before he returned to his old ways once back home. While most saw this as failure, I concluded that was exactly what would eventually happen.
Cannot disagree with you but isn't it the same with any other countries (cf look at what is happening in Astan and Iraq...).
What is needed is either a cohersive and coordinate action from the SSR donors toward Kinshasa government or, as you said: everybody goes out and leave Kabila to deal with the regime change this will generate.

Stan

03-22-2013, 07:42 PM

Hey M-A,

I am affraid that it is this "mobutu time style" reading of DRC actually political turmoil that has proven to be a break to any changes. (This is not pointed at you Stan, by the way).
Building a new capable political class and credible democratic environment was Mr Meece work as SRSG and he refused it. The people are there, there are others than Tshisekedi!
Democracy means regular regime change. International community should not be opposed because of old fashion understanding of the context.

Agreed. But, not just Mobutu style thought, rather, what to do with a huge and unpaid military ? Yes, we can change the regime and 200 different ministers as did Mobutu every year, but the largest stumbling block was the enormous military he created and has yet to gain control of or even pay for. We also don't understand how to control such a situation as it was created during a period of great wealth and power and those factors no longer exist. We can't support it, and, we can't eliminate it. The military, uneducated and armed, still dominate the government.

Cannot disagree with you but isn't it the same with any other countries (cf look at what is happening in Astan and Iraq...).
What is needed is either a cohersive and coordinate action from the SSR donors toward Kinshasa government or, as you said: everybody goes out and leave Kabila to deal with the regime change this will generate.

I would prefer that we simply take control and restart Belgian rule. Not very PC today but better than watching people die. Donor nations have placed so much political clout on their potential donations, yet, few have ever spent a week in that country. Not much of a decision making process.

If we turn off donations tomorrow, we have some absurd conclusion that we will punish the military and regime... as if both will miss a meal or some form of hardship. Really ?

If something similar to Arab Spring ever gets to the DRC :wry:

davidbfpo

03-29-2013, 11:55 AM

A BBC report:
The UN Security Council has approved the creation of a special combat force to carry out "targeted offensive operations" against armed groups in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

It is the first time the UN has given an offensive mandate to its troops.

The 2,500-strong brigade will be asked to "neutralise and disarm" rebels ......Troops from Tanzania, Mozambique and South Africa are due to form the bulk of the new brigade which is expected to be deployed by July.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21972193

An interesting mix of contributors. IIRC Tanzania's last combat mission was to invade Uganda long ago (1978-79), Mozambique had a long running COIN campaign with RENAMO till 1992 and South Africa has some peacekeeping knowledge (see parallel thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=15946

Stan

03-29-2013, 07:28 PM

Seems not all are happy with the new mandate

Despite the unanimous approval (http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs//2013/sc10964.doc.htm), several speakers expressed reservations about the text, with Guatemala’s representative questioning Council actions that could involve the United Nations in “peace-enforcement” activities. Such a move might compromise the neutrality and impartiality so essential to peacekeeping work, he cautioned. Indeed, the Organization should always be seen as an “honest broker”, he said, adding that, while he understood the logic behind the proposed deployment, he would have preferred the brigade to be a self-standing unit with specific duties distinguishable from those of MONUSCO’s other brigades.

Echoing the warning that MONUSCO now risked indirect conversion into a peace-enforcement mission, Argentina’s representative said that although the text stated clearly that the brigade would not set a precedent, the idea of “enforcing peace rather than keeping it” required deep reflection, certainly more than a week of negotiations. Negotiations on the text had not been as broad as Argentina would have hoped, she said, adding that the resolution should have included a broader complement of troop contributors so that they could be better apprised of all the new brigade’s activities.

M-A Lagrange

03-31-2013, 08:12 AM

Hello Stan,

Well, between a force that keep force by watching civilians getting killed and a force that enforce/impose peace by combating the armed groups they were watching killing the civilians... I believe the choice is difficult.

TV-PressPass

04-01-2013, 09:22 PM

Its interesting to me that this is the first UN force that's been given an offensive mandate like that.

I would think that this force would not be dressed in white and blue?

davidbfpo

04-01-2013, 10:48 PM

TV Press-Pass remarked:
Its interesting to me that this is the first UN force that's been given an offensive mandate like that.

I'm no expert, but the UN has given some missions 'an offensive mandate' before, although maybe not for a while. IIRC the original Congo UN Mission (ONUC?) took very clear offensive action over Katanga's attempt to secede.

Watching from afar I have doubts there is both the political will and military capability to undertake such a mission. It is quite possible that some current contributors to the peacekeeping mission will wish to leave if the bullets fly.

M-A Lagrange

04-02-2013, 07:29 AM

TV Press-Pass remarked:

I'm no expert, but the UN has given some missions 'an offensive mandate' before, although maybe not for a while. IIRC the original Congo UN Mission (ONUC?) took very clear offensive action over Katanga's attempt to secede.

Watching from afar I have doubts there is both the political will and military capability to undertake such a mission. It is quite possible that some current contributors to the peacekeeping mission will wish to leave if the bullets fly.

Completely concure with you David.

First: ONUC had a very offensive mandate and the UN were litteraly in control of Congo army during the Katanga wars in the 60th. But, I must say that it was against mainly the "affreux", the mercenaries engaged by Moise Tshombe, and the Mayi-Mayi Simba who were created as a reaction against Mobutu coup and Lubumba assassination by Belgium with the support of CIA.

That said, it is the first very offensive mandate since 2000 and the reorientation of the peacekeeping doctrine to "protection of civilians". Previously UN armed forces were fighting against legal or illegal governments (cf Corea war as the very first UN military intervention).

Secondly: you are right about the TCC. India and Pakistan are already in the starting blocks to leave DRC as soon as a bullet will fly too close from them. But may be is it an opportunity to remind all those countries which are funding their defense through blue helmets that peacekeeping missions are not tourism mission but actual war mission. :o

jmm99

04-02-2013, 03:58 PM

If (like mine) one's African experience is nil, and knowledge is limited to reading, the following refs may be helpful; generally and to include "offensive" actions against "affreux" - from what is now ancient history (1964) to the present.

Piero Gleijeses, "Flee! The White Giants Are Coming!": The United States, the Mercenaries, and the Congo, 1964-65 (https://ohiostatepress.org/Books/Complete%20PDFs/Hahn%20Empire/05.pdf) (2001); first published in Diplomatic History 18, no. 2 (Spring 1994): 207-237; and later as Chap 3, Empire and Revolution; The United States and the Third World since 1945 (https://ohiostatepress.org/index.htm?/books/complete pdfs/hahn empire/hahn empire.htm) (2001, edited by Peter L. Hahn and Mary Ann Heiss; free online book for non-commercial purposes).

David A. Latzko, The Market for Mercenaries (http://www.personal.psu.edu/~dxl31/research/presentations/mercenary.html) (1997), presented at the Eastern Economic Association Meetings, Crystal City, VA, April 4, 1997:

Abstract

The forces of supply and demand in the mercenary market as well as principal-agent problems and their solution are reviewed. The demand for ancient and medieval mercenaries, soldiers in eras when quality mattered more than quantity, primarily stemmed from their superiority to citizen soldiers. By 1700, quantity was the dominant factor and conscripts were now just as effective as mercenaries. Demand nearly vanished as it is less costly to raise a large, state-owned army of conscripts than to hire large numbers of mercenaries. State-owned armies also serve to reduce principle[sic !]-agent conflicts.

ISSAfrica Monograph 147: Elimination of Mercenarism in Africa. A Need for a New Continental Approach (http://www.issafrica.org/pgcontent.php?UID=2272), edited by Sabelo Gumedze (2008):

snip p.202:

Constructing a basis for normative intervention

A realistic appraisal of the state of mercenary law today must take into account the imperatives of sovereignty, the burgeoning need for security services at multiple levels of society; the diverse interests of players in any theatre of conflict; the expanding regimes of law in related fields such as human rights and humanitarian law; and the unavoidable consequences of globalisation. It has become apparent that we can no longer talk of reforming mercenary law without addressing the surrounding issues that relate not only to the widening scope of the private security debate but also the emergent players who for all intents and purposes may offer some services that were hitherto exclusive to the quintessential mercenary. One might even argue that whereas the legal discourse on ‘mercenarism’ may be inclined towards the absolute prohibition of private military industry (Musah and Fayemi 2000), the reality on the ground is that governments are still willing to engage the services of these firms when they consider it expedient to do so.

The province of ‘anti-mercenary’ law seems to have been eroded by the evolving practice in view of the realisation that the participation of PSCs/PMFs in the field of security, whether in the context of armed conflict or peace, extend beyond the perpetration of violence against civilians and government to the restoration of constitutional order, fight for self-determination and protection of humanitarian work. One should also take into consideration that as international law does not prohibit states from using private contractors to provide military and security services, a synthesis of what one might call the ‘mercenary problematique’, from the legal point of view, rests on the normative accommodation of security needs and the desire to punish rogue activities of security organisations or persons. Be that as it may, the broad range of functions the private security/military organisations perform argues for an evolution of regimes of law that isolate the undesirables with caution and regulate activities that are legitimate so as to enhance human security.

ISSAfrica Monograph 176: Merchants of African Conflict, More Than Just a Pound of Flesh (http://www.issafrica.org/pgcontent.php?UID=30716), edited by Sabelo Gumedze (2011):

Abstract:

Despite their tarnished image, private military and security companies (PMSCs) continue to feature in almost every African conflict. Their presence in conflict zones presents a plethora of challenges, as they generally remain unregulated and uncontrolled. Initiatives aimed at addressing the involvement of PMSCs in conflict theatres have thus far also proved to be ineffective. The engagement in vigorous multidisciplinary approaches aimed at championing and improving these initiatives remains critical in addressing the insecurities posed by these merchants of conflict, particularly in Africa. This monograph is intended to make a modest contribution to this complex yet interesting discourse, through various authors presenting diverse and fascinating perspectives.

Scott Fitzsimmons, Culture Clash: The Influence of Behavioural Norms on Military Performance in Assymetrical Conflicts (http://www.ucalgary.ca/innovations/files/innovations/Fitzsimmons%20Culture%20Clash.pdf) (Innovations 2008-2009):

Abstract:

This paper establishes the ways in which the military cultures of mercenary groups and their opponents influence their military performance in asymmetric conflicts. It develops and tests a constructivist military culture theory of military performance against the empirical record of two modern mercenary groups [JMM: Congo and Angola], one of which achieved victory over its opponent and one of which was defeated. The core logic of the theory is that a grossly outnumbered force must be highly flexible and adaptable if it is to perform the range of military tasks required to defeat materially superior opponents. Norms encouraging the pursuit of a wider range of tactical behaviour should increase military effectiveness, which, in turn, should increase a group’s prospects for military success. If the theory is correct, a military force’s performance should be conditioned by the degree to which the members of the force have been indoctrinated into norms that encourage them to be militarily effective.

Specifically, the theory reasons that military forces that strongly emphasize norms encouraging creative thinking, decentralized authority, personal initiative, technical proficiency, and group loyalty, should exhibit greater militarily effectiveness than forces that deemphasize these norms. Moreover, it reasons that military forces exhibiting greater military effectiveness should experience greater battlefield military performance than less effective groups, all else equal. Taking this into account, the theory predicts that the materially weaker party in an asymmetric conflict, which the mercenaries were in both cases, should only be able to defeat its materially stronger opponent if the weaker party emphasizes behavioural norms that encourage it to perform a wide range of tactical behaviour – that is, be very militarily effective – and the stronger party does not emphasize these norms because this should allow the weaker party to exploit the weaknesses and counter the strengths of the stronger party and, through this, defeat it. On the other hand, the theory predicts that, in asymmetric conflicts where neither party emphasizes behavioural norms encouraging them to perform a wide range of tactical behaviour, neither party should be capable of exploiting the weaknesses and countering the strengths of the other and, as a result, the balance of material capabilities should allow the materially stronger party to prevail.

Scott Fitzsimmons, Adapt or Die: The Cultural Foundations of Military Performance in the Sierra Leonean Civil War (http://www.cpsa-acsp.ca/papers-2009/Fitzsimmons1.pdf) (2009):

Conclusion

The results of this analysis suggest that ideational factors played an important role in shaping the military effectiveness and battlefield military performance of the combatants in this case. Indeed, all of the testable predictions made by the normative theory of military performance were borne out during the Sierra Leonean Civil War. Overall, the normative theory of military performance appears to provide a convincing explanation of military performance in this asymmetric conflict.

The implications of these results are profoundly important because they suggest that governments, international organizations, and anyone else considering using mercenaries to implement their foreign and defence policies should attempt to understand the military culture of the private security organizations vying for their business. In other words, the potential clients of private security organizations cannot afford to determine the suitability of an organization based solely on the size of its inventory of weapons and vehicles or on the length of its personnel roster. Rather, prudent clients must demand access to the inner-workings of these organizations, particularly the junior and senior personnel who would be charged with implementing the terms of any contract, to assess how these individuals think and how they are encouraged to behave. Only then can a client determine whether a private security organization emphasizes the five norms of military effectiveness discussed in this paper and, in turn, determine whether this organization will likely accomplish its required tasks, even in the face of materially superior opponents.

Regards

Mike

Stan

04-02-2013, 07:16 PM

Taking a look at the UN website, it's no wonder most think of this as the first ever offensive UN force. Heck, it says so right here (https://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2013/sc10964.doc.htm) :rolleyes:

The Security Council today approved the creation of its first-ever “offensive” combat force, intended to carry out targeted operations to “neutralize and disarm” the notorious 23 March Movement (M23), as well as other Congolese rebels and foreign armed groups in strife-riven eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

.... and created, on an exceptional basis, a specialized “intervention brigade” within the operation’s existing 19,815‑strong force.

As most of us already know, this is Bravo Sierra :D

Be careful what you wish for in this part of the world. The Congo has tested and swallowed the best of the UN to include nearly 20,000 peacekeepers. So now they are permitted to load their weapons and employ them ? Those attack helicopters with rockets were then (defensive) as well as useless ?

M-A Lagrange

04-03-2013, 08:52 AM

Thanks Mike for the quite complete cover of the actual mercenary phenomenon in Africa. I believe some silent council members may have an opinion on this, especially on the merc market in Africa.

In 64, the mercenary business was much easier and simple than nowadays. No need of military training, COIN/CT/IW/SOP expertise…
At that time, what was the deadliest was friendly fire and drunk local army soldiers.

Here some readings recommendations on the “affreux”:
Congo Mercenary, by Mike Hoare
http://www.amazon.com/Congo-Mercenary-Mike-Hoare/dp/1581606397
Congo Warriors, by Mike Hoare
http://www.amazon.com/Congo-Warriors-Mike-Hoare/dp/1581606478/ref=pd_sim_b_1
The Road To Kalamata: A Congo Mercenary's Personal Memoir, by Mike Hoare
http://www.amazon.com/The-Road-To-Kalamata-Mercenarys/dp/1581606419/ref=pd_sim_b_2
MAD DOG KILLERS: The Story of a Congo Mercenary, by Ivan Smith
http://www.amazon.com/MAD-DOG-KILLERS-Story-Mercenary/dp/190767778X/ref=pd_sim_b_5
Who Killed Hammarskjld?: The Un, the Cold War and White Supremacy in Africa, by A. Susan William
http://www.amazon.com/Who-Killed-Hammarskjld-Supremacy-Africa/dp/184904158X/ref=sr_1_fkmr2_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1364977391&sr=1-2-fkmr2&keywords=bob+denard%2C+congo

I do recommend the last one.

jmm99

04-03-2013, 09:43 PM

to clarify my post's purpose. Mine was much less to suggest historical references (though the monographs are also that) than to point up future possibilities. Those possibilities go well beyond sub-Saharan Africa.

I was intrigued by Latzko's "quality vs quantity" dichotomy, which has been ongoing since it was reflected in the 1400s by the French solution (ordonnance companies, regular soldiers) and the Italian solution (free companies, mercenaries). Both those solutions sought "quality" vs the "quantity" solution of medieval levies. Contamine (http://www.amazon.com/War-Middle-Ages-Philippe-Contamine/dp/0631144692) (chap. 4, Free Companies, Gundpowder and Permanent Armies).

As Scott Fitzsimmons proves in his studies of Congo, Angola and Sierra Leone, "quality" is not guaranteed with either "national armies" or "mercenaries". In neo-Orwellian terms, some pigs are more equal than others; and not all animals are pigs.

The ISSAfrica studies (I linked to only 2 of at least a half dozen on "private security" that are online in its publications) point up the vacuum that exists in Africa in "military effectiveness".

Using Fitzsimmons' definitions:

Military performance, the dependent variable in this paper, is specifically concerned with winning and losing battles. It is the outcome of battle; it is not what a military does in battle. Military performance is not a characteristic of an organization but rather the result of an organization’s activity. This concept does not equate with military effectiveness, another major variable in this paper referring to the range of military behaviours that a military force is capable of undertaking. Armed forces may be highly effective yet still be defeated.

For example, the German Army was arguably the most effective fighting force during both the First and Second World Wars yet it ultimately lost numerous battles and both conflicts. Indeed, the German army is often cited as an example of extraordinary military effectiveness because it fought so well even when faced with more numerous and better armed foes.

Therefore, while military effectiveness and military performance are related concepts, it is important to recognize that they are quite different; military effectiveness is only one possible determinant of military performance. Martin Van Creveld, Fighting Power: German and US Army Performance, 1939-1945 (London, UK: Arms and Armour Press, 1983); Allan Millett, Williamson Murray, and Kenneth Watman, "The Effectiveness of Military Organizations," International Security 11, no. 1 (Summer 1986).

Millett's seminal 1986 article is here (http://www.polsci.wvu.edu/faculty/hauser/PS461/Millet.pdf).

If a vacuum exists militarily, it will be filled. And, military vacuums seem likely not only in sub-Saharan Africa, but elsewhere in the world. Few nations can afford a "TdM" and "Legion" to engage in external interventions.

So, while I wouldn't mind going back to 1961 (when I was 19), that wasn't my purpose - avant, avant !! toujours avant !! :D

Regards

Mike

M-A Lagrange

04-16-2013, 06:07 AM

The latest events in Lubumbashi analysed by ICG:

Lubumbashi Takeover: “Governance by substitution” in the DRC

The unexpected occupation of Lubumbashi, the second largest city in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), by 440 Mai-Mai fighters last month is another sign of the central government’s lack of capacity to govern, ensure security or pursue reform. The occupation, which resulted in 35 dead and 53 wounded, serves as a reminder that the country’s crisis is not limited to North Kivu, in eastern Congo, or to warlords.
By raising the flag of the state of Katanga (independent from 1960-1963) on Moïse Tshombe Square in the centre of Lubumbashi, the Mai-Mai Bakata Katanga group performed a powerful symbolic act. Katangan separatism has haunted Congolese politics since independence in June 1960. The province is the country’s economic crown jewel, as industrial mining activities are concentrated there.
But despite Katanga’s (and Lubumbashi’s) strategic importance, Mai-Mai Bakata Katanga entered the city with no resistance from the security forces and no protest from the population. The provincial and national governments were taken by surprise.
http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/africanpeacebuilding/2013/04/15/lubumbashi-takeover-governance-by-substitution-in-the-drc/

Stan

04-16-2013, 07:30 PM

Hey M-A,

It seems to me that Kinshasa, even under Mobutu's rule, never controlled anything to include Lubumbashi. Back then there was no internet nor cell, and what took place there never mattered and it took weeks to reach the Presidential palace. It was our consulate in 84 that warned Uncle Mo of a potential uprising at the mines and the soldiers he sent only seemed to make things worse.

Lubumbashi and her inhabitants have always lived an exclusive and lackadaisical life living over a thousand clicks from troubled Kinshasa and many more from Gbadolite. Never an uprising and always great cuts of beef from across the border to trade for ivory, malachite, etc.

Regards, Stan

M-A Lagrange

04-17-2013, 06:40 AM

Hello Stan,

I do agree that under Mobutu DRC was a uge country without any communications at all, therefore the master of Kinshasa had to have baronets to run the various provinces.

In fact that piece of blog is targetting the new people who try to fix DRC. The idea is to say: look Kabila is governing by substitution and his government does not care. If we want things to go at least forward, please take the time to look at what is DRC today. Not saying it is much different as before in many ways, just saying: look DRC is like that not like whoever guy in an office from Kinshasa to the moon told you.

What I found interresting at the moment it is the come back of the Mulelist (Mayi-Mayi Simba style) ideology. Tells long on were we are today.

Firn

04-17-2013, 07:34 PM

While I do know nothing about the particular situation I would tend to frame the situation like that:

1) It is always important to keep in mind that the political and economic interests of the various actors and the state are not the same. A so called head of state could actually live rather well even if he actually only controls a relative small, if important region of the whole state. He will also still get invited to fancy meetings, will be welcomed with military honours, can increase his wealth and store it in relative safe places all the while enjoying his grand status.

2) In a vast country with terrible infrastructure made out a big cultural, linguistic and ethnic patchwork there are lots and lots of actors resisting greater central control and the great friction works against any move. The loyality towards the state is pretty low and thus the man at the top will in general turn towards his people or ethnic group for the important posts which will of course turn off other tribes.

3) The military power of the state, or better the president is thus not only limited by the great lack of capital but also by the exclusive nature of his regime. He arguably rightly fears to include other groups and actors which he tended to exclude economically and politically.

To sum it up those guys and the ruling class are often confronted by a trade-off between the easier conservation of the status quo which can pay off rather well or the riskier expansion of (military) power against the various local baronets. In general it seems to be safer to let many smaller others have it their way in the various provinces and keep the few loyal and decently rewarded units on a tight leash while enjoying life. Why should they care about the little guy or girl?

M-A Lagrange

04-18-2013, 12:53 PM

Hello Firn

Well the situation could be as you mention if we still were in the 80th. Today there is internet, cellphone coverage, skype... Lubumbashi is one computer click away from Kinshasa.
By not securing Lubumbashi, Kabila just demonstrated to investors that he has no grip even on the crown jewels. This is rather a sign of weakness and incapacity to govern.
Also, Kabila does not have a couple of decently rewarded capable units among his army. The last events in North Kivu where the battalion trained by the US has been found guilty of mass rapes demonstrates that FARDC are not capable, even those who are trained and paid by US; belgium; China; RSA; France; Angola...

DRC Prime Minister can say at will that you do not take Lubumbashi with a couple of AK and an handfull of machetes... The Mayi-Mayi Bakata Katanga just did it! That's just not a good news for investors. Especially when you are at the same time reviewing the mining code to increase taxes and you impose a ban on raw cooper exports. It is rather the invers (ensure investors that you can secure their money) DRC government should do.

davidbfpo

04-18-2013, 06:29 PM

Marc you wrote (in part):
The Mayi-Mayi Bakata Katanga just did it! That's just not a good news for investors. Especially when you are at the same time reviewing the mining code to increase taxes and you impose a ban on raw cooper exports. It is rather the invers (ensure investors that you can secure their money) DRC government should do.

Is it possible that the investors have encouraged the Mayi-Mayi Bakata to pay a visit? Or have the rebels simply spotted an opportunity to act?

Incidentally on another thread wasn't it the Chinese who were the investors? I know long ago there was a substantial Western expatriate community in Katanga and Zambia's Copper Belt.

Firn

04-18-2013, 06:57 PM

Hello Firn

Well the situation could be as you mention if we still were in the 80th. Today there is internet, cellphone coverage, skype... Lubumbashi is one computer click away from Kinshasa.

I think I stated that I know nothing about the particular situation but tried to organize my thoughts into a framework. It is always nice to have somebody with far more insight who points outs the particulars.

By not securing Lubumbashi, Kabila just demonstrated to investors that he has no grip even on the crown jewels. This is rather a sign of weakness and incapacity to govern.

Also, Kabila does not have a couple of decently rewarded capable units among his army. The last events in North Kivu where the battalion trained by the US has been found guilty of mass rapes demonstrates that FARDC are not capable, even those who are trained and paid by US; belgium; China; RSA; France; Angola...

DRC Prime Minister can say at will that you do not take Lubumbashi with a couple of AK and an handfull of machetes... The Mayi-Mayi Bakata Katanga just did it! That's just not a good news for investors. Especially when you are at the same time reviewing the mining code to increase taxes and you impose a ban on raw cooper exports. It is rather the invers (ensure investors that you can secure their money) DRC government should do.

It is pretty difficult to understand why the DRC government was unable to protect such a valuable city with it's taxable and stealable ressources. It sounds a like a joke that such a small amount of guys with so little ressources at their disposal can just take over. A small Greek city state around 400 BC would have very likely stopped those guys in their tracks.

A ban on raw copper exports, without the necessary and efficient value-chain in place, which I highly doubt sets mighty incentives for all sorts of illegal activities both from the business side (smuggling & so forth) as well as the government side ( corruption & so forth). It did so in much more stable states, go figure what it could do in the DRC. Sounds like a pretty terrible and destructive approach for the (mining) economy, but I bet you are not surprised by that...

Stan

04-18-2013, 07:53 PM

I think I stated that I know nothing about the particular situation but tried to organize my thoughts into a framework. It is always nice to have somebody with far more insight who points outs the particulars.

Don't get us wrong, and we do invite your insight and questions. We all come from very different backgrounds and there should be room for "lost in translation". If we all spoke French together, things would be a little clearer. But, we can't do that because then only a few herein would understand.

It is pretty difficult to understand why the DRC government was unable to protect such a valuable city with it's taxable and stealable ressources. It sounds a like a joke that such a small amount of guys with so little ressources at their disposal can just take over. A small Greek city state around 400 BC would have very likely stopped those guys in their tracks.

A ban on raw copper exports, without the necessary and efficient value-chain in place, which I highly doubt sets mighty incentives for all sorts of illegal activities both from the business side (smuggling & so forth) as well as the government side ( corruption & so forth). It did so in much more stable states, go figure what it could do in the DRC. Sounds like a pretty terrible and destructive approach for the (mining) economy, but I bet you are not surprised by that...

The problem here, like with most who have never worked in Sub-Sahara, is a lack of understanding and physically seeing this system work. I have been there both in the military and as a civilian. My eyes are still open and I still get what is going on and just how it works. Nobody other than a common local cares about the outcome. The rest of the population that is not on the take has to deal with things as they are. If the day ever comes when the entire public uprise, then we will see something change.

M-A Lagrange

04-19-2013, 06:25 AM

Firn,

Just as Stan said, you are most welcome to comment. My point was merely pointing out the fact that you and Stan are right but, as Stan said, this is sub-sahara Africa so they did the 2.0 revolution and you have access to modern communication. What was possible 30 years ago is just out dated today, even in the middle of the rainny forest (well, if you have the equipment:D).

Is it possible that the investors have encouraged the Mayi-Mayi Bakata to pay a visit? Or have the rebels simply spotted an opportunity to act?

David,

This is no opportunity act, in fact you have a complexe combinasion of events and "in the shadow" actors intervention which provocated the situation.
The Mayi-Mayi were litteraly invited in Lubumbashi by one of the secessionist politician leader, the actual chairman of the Katanga assembly who is against the decentralization and is from South where all the mines are located. But several high ranked individuals from Kabila ethnic familly (the balubakat) also helped the Mayi-Mayi because they want to oppose against the decentralization. Despite he denies it, General Numbi, who use to be head of air forces and police and is a Kabila close collaborator, is said to have host some of the Mayi-Mayi in his farm. The head of central bank, also a balubakat, is also said to have distributed money to the Mayi Mayi... That, because Balubakat are from Northern part of Kataga, a part of Katanga which has no mines. If decentralization is implemented, North Katanga will be left out with no mines revenues and the actual game for Katanga politicians is to access the mines revenues.

In addition, investors in Kataga are Chinese, US, UK, Indian, Canadian, French, Belgian... Basically messing with Lubumbashi is freaking out everybody. I think thatif investments are in danger Kabila believes the Legion will jump on Kolwezi once again to save his regime. I am affraid he got it completely wrong.

A ban on raw copper exports, without the necessary and efficient value-chain in place, which I highly doubt sets mighty incentives for all sorts of illegal activities both from the business side (smuggling & so forth) as well as the government side ( corruption & so forth). It did so in much more stable states, go figure what it could do in the DRC. Sounds like a pretty terrible and destructive approach for the (mining) economy, but I bet you are not surprised by that...

Firn,

Actually the Katanga governor, Moise Katumbi, one of the wealthiest man of DRC, just agrees with you:
UPDATE 2-Congo's copper province governor rejects export ban

The governor of Katanga, Congo's sole copper and cobalt mining province, said he would not enforce a new ban on the export of copper and cobalt concentrates, putting him on a collision course with the central government.

The mines and finance ministers signed a directive this month giving companies 90 days to clear their stocks of concentrate before the ban comes into effect, after which processing would have to be done in Congo or heavy payments made to the government.

"As the government of Katanga we reject this decision, and we will continue exporting," Moise Katumbi said by telephone. "Congo doesn't have enough electricity to process the finished product."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/18/congo-democratic-copper-idUSL5N0D53AN20130418

Who said once you touch the bottom you cannot go deeper down?