Back to the kilometric responses...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ray
Given your posts on the issue of China, US and Philippines, the approach taken by you was to rubbish the idea that Philippines was not concerned about China’s aggressive moves in the SCS.
I think the confusion comes from your apparent inability to acknowledge any possibility between "not concerned" and "#1 threat".
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ray
one wonders how far the international and the Philippines media are not aware of what they write
I think the confusion here is because you're looking at coverage of the Philippines and China out of context, meaning you're not looking at all of the other stuff the Philippine media write about. Yes, the Philippine media run stories on China. That doesn't make China "the #1 threat". They also run many stories on many other subjects. The coverage, for example, of the running impeachment trial of the Supreme Court Chief Justice, the corruption story du jour, absolutely dwarfs coverage of China.
That's one of the drawbacks to using Google News. If you search only for articles regarding China, and read only the stories that come up, you get the distorted impression that the Philippine media are focused on "the China threat". If you look at the Philippine media as a whole, you get a very different impression.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ray
Further, in your posts, you repeatedly give the impression that China is not a major issue for Philippines. You claim that it was the Moro insurgency that was the primary concern and now you claim, in addition, it is corruption and inadequacy of the govt. To quote you - ( I also think you'd find that a lot more Filipinos would see the corruption and inadequacy of their own government as a greater threat than China.)
Again, you speak of "the Philippines" as if it were a single individual with a single set of opinions.
I have not claimed that the Moro insurgency was "the primary concern". I said it was the primary focus of US/Philippine military cooperation, a very different thing. I'd say average Filipinos across the board are more concerned with corruption and incompetence in government, which directly affect them, than they are about either insurgency or China's threat, which do not directly affect them. In areas where insurgents are active that changes, of course.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ray
If China was not a major issue for Philippines why are they, out of the blue, adding naval vessels to their fleet, albeit old? Or scouting around for foreign fighter jets?
Out of the blue? Hardly. The Philippine Military Modernization Plan dates back to 1995, and has been the subject of much discussion and multiple promises ever since. Every administration promises it, none deliver. The reality has been -and still is - that while it's easy to build a consensus around the idea that military modernization is needed, that consensus evaporates as soon as you start talking about what budget lines are going to be cut to supply the funding. The Philippines has been in on/off talks over aircraft acquisition for decades. The talks always stall over money. There's an initiative to buy fighters because the Philippines has none, and hasn't since they retired the last of their F-5s many years ago. None of this has happened "all of a sudden", it's just getting attention because of the current standoff. Even the current acquisition of naval vessels was negotiated long before the recent events... and if you look at the vessels being supplied, both by the US and those the Japanese are now offering, you'll seer that their size and armament makes them much more suitable for COIN/anti-piracy operations than for combat with the Chinese.
There's been more serious discussion of modernization in the last few years, largely because the country has posted decent growth figures for a number of years, public deficits have been trimmed to some degree, and thus the capacity to pursue a program that dates back to 1995 is greater than it was. Even with hat capacity, the plans on the table are very modest. $1 billion spread over 3 years is not a huge amount of money, and a few upgraded trainers and ships with no SS/SAM capacity really don't mean much stacked up against China.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ray
It could not be because of the Moro insurgency since that has been going on for quite sometimes and if it were the Moros, then this addition would have been done much earlier and not now, all of a sudden!
Therefore, given the international media and even the local news reports and the flurry in beefing up of the Philippines Military, it does indicate that, for some reason that you have not enunciated as to why you want to downplay the China issue, that your assumptions that China is not a major threat is not quite in order.
While I concede that you are in situ, but then to believe that the international media and the activities of the Philippine Govt in modernising (if that is the word) its armed forces are rubbish, it would be a bit too stretched for acceptance or belief!
As usual, if you look at current news reports without the historical and political context, you get an inaccurate impression.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ray
I have no idea as to what is ‘RC’. You may not remember, but if you care to go through this thread and the one about China Superpower, you would find having said so, directly and indirectly.
"RC" is half of "IIRC". I don't think I ever said that, though you might have gotten that impression.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ray
The US, in all probability, based troops against the Moro insurgents, but to believe that they are not prepared for contingencies other than the Moro would be mistaken.
The 600 or so troops stationed in the south, with no air or sea capability, would be of little use in any other contingency. They went there not because of China, but because the US managed to convince itself (for no very good reason) that SE Asia was the next front in the GWOT and that the ASG was an active AQ franchise. Nobody was much concerned with China at that time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ray
US has based troops in Philippines on a ‘rotational basis’. What does that mean? Semantics for permanent basing.
It keeps the numbers limited and it stations the troops on Philippine military facilities, not on facilities under US control. To some extent it's a semantic dodge. Some Filipinos find it offensive and would like to end the arrangement. Most others are willing to put up with the semantic dodge as long as the US presence is in what for most Filipinos consider a faraway corner, and as long as it's seen as a move against the ASG, not a popular group in most of the country. If large rotational deployments were made closer to home, or if aircraft and ships started making more than occasional drop-by visits, I think you'd see a lot more resistance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ray
It is not that the Philippines has tolerated the US forces based there. Philippines has no options. It is either having a benign US or a fire breathing Dragon!
The US forces deployed in the Philippines are working against Muslim insurgent/terrorist/bandit groups and have little or no relevance to China.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ray
Notwithstanding your assertion, all activities, to include beefing up the military and the media reports, indicate that it is China which is the Number One issue and not the Moros or the corruption or inadequacies.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ray
Obviously, if they are refurbishing their Military with acquired naval vessels and scouting around for fighter jets, it is obviously not a dog and pony show (to use an Americanism) they are organising!
You may have missed the constant chorus of complaints over the last few decades over the Moro rebels having faster and better-armed boats than the Navy, and of the inability of the Air Force to provide meaningful CAS. That's what happens when you only pay attention once in a long while.