General Ashfaq Pervez Kiani
I'd like to get members take on Musharraf's move to make this guy his replacement as the Pakistani army chief.
Several questions come to mind:
1. Why did Musharraf see the need to step down?
2. What do we know about the new guy besides that he's a Punjabi and a USA CGSC graduate?
3. What are the impacts for OEF in AF?
4. What are the impacts on the search for UBL/neutralizing of AQ in view of the general belief that the Northwest Tribal regions are a primary launching point for global "Islamic" terrorism?
Indian profile of the General
http://www.saag.org/papers24/paper2399.html
This makes interesting reading and downplays the ISI role as he was / is a Musharraf appointee. Happy reading.
davidbfpo
Musharaff's Smart Move: Kiyani's Appointment
General Musharaff, under enormous pressure from both within and without Pakistan, has accepted the fact that the U.S. will not support him if he declares martial law in order to remain both Pakistan’s COAS and President. Ignoring the U.S. administration isn’t an option either if the generous cash flow is to continue that has helped Pakistan revitalize its economy. Yet, as with previous Pakistani leaders, Musharaff has a hard time giving up the kursi (Urdu for “chair”). To seek, and win, another five year term as President (which is now a done deal, although the Supreme Court hearing of petitions is a temporary hitch to the plan) is the way Musharaff sees himself holding on. Although, removing his uniform as COAS will diminish his grip on power, ensuring that the new COAS is a strong ally is one way to try to maintain a revised status quo (and to stay safe).
It appears Musharaff had both luck and the good sense to tap Kiyani –who just got his 4th star along with General Majid—as the new VCOAS while retiring General Ahsan Saleem Hayat on Oct 8th. As luck would have it, Kiyani has the seniority to justify his appointment. Historically, COAS’s were always deep selected from amongst the more junior flag ranks based on a perception (proven false) that they would --out of gratitude?-- act like sycophants, only to have these “appointees” launch coups of their own (like Zia and Musharaff, the two with the longest tenures in power besides Ayub).
Kiyani has a reputation for being both competent and loyal. Furthermore, notwithstanding the dismal results of the Pak army’s strategy in the Tribal belt, especially in South and North Waziristan, he has proven to be effective at coordinating the various entities in hunting down Islamists, especially those behind the Musharaff assassination attempts. His reward: Directorship of ISI. He is a moderate Muslim in an army that at the lower ranks is morphing into a more conservative institution (read: Islamist sympathizers). He is a uniter based on his ethnicity and background: a Punjabi from the Potowar Plateau region near Jehlum (known as the soldier factory of the country for good reason) and the son of an NCO. The fact that he comes from a relatively humble background at a time when within the NCO ranks morale and disgruntlement with the army leadership is at an all time high, is a morale booster. This is also unprecedented and it gives the lower ranks a glimmer of hope that one day their sons too can hold one of the highest offices in the military.
Given the ongoing humiliation of the Army in the FATA and the recent Lal Masjid incident (which involved some casualties that were kin of NCOs who had sent their children to its madrassas, both the boys and girls sections), Kiyani as the future COAS would definitely be a much needed morale booster that should not be underestimated. The perception: finally that damn Mohajir (refugee from India) i.e. Musharaff is being replaced by one of us (a Punjabi aka Kayani) and he’s an NCOs boy!
Kiyani as COAS would be perceived favorably by the Punjabis (the overwhelming majority of the population), by the enlisted ranks, by his fellow officers who admire (and envy) his abilities and by Bhutto, who he served as military secretary in her first term. He will not be appreciated in both Baluchistan and the NWFP (inc FATA) where he is seen as a Musharaff stooge and the architect of the army’s intervention into the FATA, with disastrous effects all round. But his presence will have a soothing/stabilizing effect for the army that also controls Pakistan nuclear arsenal.
Wana 88
Pakistan Army sells out new civilian gov't.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/16/wo...stan.html?_r=1
Read this that the new head of the Pak Army and his ISI have again caved to the Taliban, whom they outnumber more than 4 to 1 inside Swat, by agreeing to imposition of Sharia Law.
Damned those bearded 'persons'. They undercut every effort at democracy for Pakistan, and Swat is not a past source of Taliban terrorists, it was flatly invaded by these bums.
Come on George, you and I both know nothing in that
region is as it it appears. There are always wheels inside of wheels. Can't tell much from a newspaper report. It may take six weeks or six months for the real truth to come out.
I also need to ask you a favor. We're all grownups and most of us have forgotten more combinations of cuss words than we can remember but we do try to not use them here; It would be helpful if you could do that also.
109 page report link, wow!
Thanks for the short intro but the link is too much for my decrepit old home pc...will have to wait until I am on my office or the library pc tomorrow to look into that longer report.
The unique problem Pakistan's ISI has are the ties to radical Taliban and al Qaida, which ISI even with one so far attempt at reorganization under President Zardari appearing to have flopped/failed thus far.
The head of the Pakitani Army was hand picked by Musharraf, who was his mentor, for what that is worth.
With 5 attempts on Musharraf's life while he was President
it is hard to image that Musharraf or his direct proteges would like the Taliban...but who knows?
1 Attachment(s)
Pakistani Army commentary
Attached are three comments provided by an open source analyst, Hamid Hussain, who is based in the USA and writes regularly on such issues. He can be contacted via PM to davidbfpo.
One concerns: One the forthcoming process for the promotion of general rank officers; Two another the choice of Chief of Staff in 2010 and Three a general comment on the role of the military in COIN.
3 excellent insider knowledge Pak military stastus posts
David:
Good reading in all three paper's cases.
Thanks for these excellent posts.
Pakistani Capabilities for a Counterinsurgency Campaign: A Net Assessment
NAF, 17 Sep 09: Pakistani Capabilities for a Counterinsurgency Campaign: A Net Assessment
Quote:
As a more effective Taliban steps up its operations along the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Western observers increasingly are calling on Pakistan to implement a strategy of population-security counterinsurgency, or COIN. This paper will offer a net assessment of Pakistan’s military capabilities to conduct such a campaign based on clearly stated assumptions, an analysis of opensource materials, and textbook COIN doctrine and best practices. It will examine the gap in Pakistani efforts and the choices required to fill this gap based on:
1. The nature of the insurgency, including its strength, capabilities, tactics, and strategic objectives;
2. The terrain challenges posed by the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and North- West Frontier Province (NWFP), and
3. Current and potential Pakistani military capabilities.
Three generals to stay on?
The role of the Pakistani Army Chief of Staff is pivotal in Pakistan's future and as an indicator what may happen internally. So it is no surprise to see the current CoS General Kayani may have his two year term of office extended beyond the compulsory retirement age; not to overlook the ISI chief and the Chief of General Staff too.
http://watandost.blogspot.com/2010/0...ef-kayani.html
Quote:
The move has been made to ensure continuity in Pakistan’s policy on the war on terror and it also has a nod from Washington as the Army has achieved remarkable successes in the war on terror under General Kayani’s command.
I have a longer analytical comment via an email that will posted soon.
Gates talks and listens to the Pakistani military
Hat tip to Zenpundit for his exposure of the Q&A session Secretary Gates had with a Pakistani military forum on his visit recently: Zen's comments:http://zenpundit.com/?p=3338
Zen's closing, calm remarks:
Quote:
Pakistan, or at least an autonomous part of its military, is our enemy in Afghanistan and have been since 2001. Let’s accept that reality and revise our policies accordingly. Being an enemy of the United States ought to come with some costs rather than aid packages.
A (partial?) transcript of the Q&A
:http://duckofminerva.blogspot.com/20...-national.html
Quote:
The frank talk was apparently a bit heated. At one point, one of the Pakistani military officers asked Secretary Gates point blank: "Are you with us or against us?"
The transcript reveals a deep level of distrust between the US and the Pakistani military. It also shows that some junior officers of the Pakistani military do not take ownership of their government's current offensives against militants in the North West Frontier Province and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan.
This could fit on the thread 'The US & others working with Pakistan (a joined up thread)', but fits here too:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=2313
1 Attachment(s)
How the Pakistani Army works
I posted earlier in this thread some comments / analysis by an observer of the Pakistani Army's ways and attached is their latest - just in time as the succession issue has come to the fore. The author is identified, he is not a SWC member, his work has appeared on SWJ before and has given his permission for this item to appear here.
Retirement dates for generals extended
This is a cross post and was originally on the 'Round Up Taliban' thread.
Quote:
Lieutenant General Ahmad Shuja Pasha, director general of the military's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, was due to retire this month but will remain in office for another year, Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani's office said in a statement.
From:http://watandost.blogspot.com/2010/0...extension.html Which has links to two Pakistani press comments and one adds:
Quote:
The extension in service to generals, now four in number, by the Chief of Army Staff (COAS), General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, raises important points.
From:http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...1-3-2010_pg3_2
All Kayani’s Men by Anatol Lieven
An excellent article IMHO and some good quotes:http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=23214
Opens with:
Quote:
VOLTAIRE REMARKED of Frederick the Great’s Prussia that “where .some states have an army, the Prussian Army has a state!” The same can easily be said of Pakistan. The destruction of the army would mean the destruction of the country. Yet this is something that the Pakistani Taliban and their allies can never achieve. Only the United States is capable of such a feat; if Washington ever takes actions that persuade ordinary Pakistani soldiers that their only honorable course is to fight America, even against the orders of their generals and against dreadful odds, the armed forces would crumble.
Or:
Quote:
....when it comes to the Pakistani Taliban and their allies. The military as a whole and the ISI are now committed to the struggle against them, and by the end of 2009, the ISI had lost more than seventy of its officers in this fight—some ten times the number of CIA officers killed since 9/11, just as Pakistani military casualties fighting the Pakistani Taliban have greatly exceeded those of the United States in Afghanistan.
Extension for General Kayani
Finally a decision and a long extension, three years:
Quote:
The government extended the term of Pakistan’s army chief by three years on Thursday, a move backed by the United States as it seeks to encourage Pakistan as a more reliable ally against Taliban and Qaeda militants.
And later:
Quote:
General Kayani’s extension was not unexpected. The weak civilian government appears to be grateful to have an army chief that at least consults it, and Mr. Zardari and Mr. Gilani were known to be willing to go along with General Kayani’s desire to stay longer.
Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/23/wo..._r=1&ref=world
A Pakistani Admiral speaks
Admiral Fasih Bokhari is a former chief of naval staff and a respected and upright officer (fired in 1999 for demanding a court of inquiry into Pervez Musharraf's botched Kargil operation). He now writes for newspapers and here is his latest. I urge you to read it very carefully, since a better summary of the default Pak army strategic view cannot be found:
http://paktribune.com/news/index.shtml?231678
In Re: Omarali and Tequilla
Speechless
Omarali... indeed if this is the prevailing view.... hmmm... revealing :eek:
Tequilla... couldn't agree more :D
He's right about one thing
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-11385214
He's right about India's leadership, they're under seige by numerous insurgencies due to poor governance, and they're close to falling on their face even before the Common Wealth Games starts (see news at the link).
I think from his point of view Pakistan is ascending, and the U.S. is looking for an honorable exit from Afghanistan, which sadly he gives Pakistan credit for, and even worse he's probably right.
Generals in Pakistan Push for Shake-Up of Government
No great surprise, although I expect closer-in observers may have seen the signs beforehand:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/29/wo..._r=2&ref=world
Opens with
Quote:
The Pakistani military, angered by the inept handling of the country’s devastating floods and alarmed by a collapse of the economy, is pushing for a shake-up of the elected government, and in the longer term, even the removal of President Asif Ali Zardari and his top lieutenants.
Near the end:
Quote:
The alarm about the economy was first sounded by Mr. Shaikh, a former officer of the World Bank, who told a meeting of political and military leaders last month that the government had enough money to pay only two months’ salaries. The economy was “teetering on the brink” before the floods but was now heading for the “abyss,” Mr. Shaikh was quoted as saying.
Pakistanis Are Tough Patrollers...Gold Medal In UK
From a Pakistani report, based on the UK Forces TV story:
Quote:
Beating hundreds of soldiers from major armies of the world, Pakistan Army has won the coveted Gold Award at the prestigious Cambrian Patrol Exercise held in Wales with participation from armies of India, Australia, Canada, United States and France among others.
750 soldiers from across the world descended on the Brecon Beacons in Wales to suffer through one of the toughest exercises ever devised. The Cambrian patrol tested the soldiering skills of the teams as they crossed some of the most arduous terrain one can imagine.
During the marches, the teams had to complete challenges including observation and reconnaissance of enemy forces, cold-river crossings in full kit without access to boats, first-aid and defensive shooting under attack.
TV clip:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVh-E...yer_embedded#!
Pakistan Army recent experience with counterinsurgency
Below is a link to an Atlantic Council report about the Pakistani Army's recent experiences with counterinsurgency. It includes a very interesting audio presentation by the author.
http://www.acus.org/event/learning-d...nterinsurgency
One of the things mentioned was that in a Pakistan Army military academy, there was an easel with a picture of mullah on it, where in the past there would have been a map of India. The author suggests this is indicative of a changing focus on the part of the army. This may be a hopeful sign.