Russia and the US

But the player here that is not being focused on is the Kremlin. Compare their current support of Iran and Ahmedinejad's mouth to what they did with Milosevic in Serbia. While the Kosovo business didn't happen under Putin's watch, key players such as Primakov, who engineered that one, are part of Putin's cadre. The Kosovo war gave Putin the election in my view, after we got suckered in a rope-a-dope fight. (Kosovo nearly led to a successful coup against Yeltsin before the election, but that's another matter.)

Consider also that when Putin took power the Russian Federation's national budget was roughly equal to that of New York City. The nation was lurching toward breakup with provincial governors assuming more and more power. Now Putin is supervising a Russia that is not exactly wealthy but well on the road to health and the breakup is not even a distant echo.

How did that happen? It happened because of oil price rises. What pushed that? The Iraq war.

What would be the outcome for Russia if we attacked Iran? Major increase in the price of oil. And likely, in the long term, a resurgent Russia taking control as they are equipped to do by virtue of ruthlessness, since I'll bet the Kremlin is banking on the USA withdrawing within 10 years if we did. A weakened Iran on their border? What could be better?

What would be the outcome for Russia if we didn't attack Iran? Increase in Russian influence in the Middle East.

What would be the outcome for Russia if Iran fires nuclear missiles at Israel (or even better fires them at Riyadh and UAE)? Huge increase in the price of oil. And it would give Russia an excuse to roll into Iran and take it over "for the sake of world peace."

Heads Putin wins. Tails we lose.

My view of the Kremlin's goals (in a region that is as close to it as Mexico and Guatemala are to us) is that the neo-FSB patriots aim to take over 60% to 70% of the world's oil supplies by 2015. Barring that, they aim to destroy it or stir the pot to ensure regular price increases in order to raise the wounded bear back up on its feet.

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

But the player here that is not being focused on is the Kremlin...
. . .

My view of the Kremlin's goals (in a region that is as close to it as Mexico and Guatemala are to us) is that the neo-FSB patriots aim to take over 60% to 70% of the world's oil supplies by 2015. Barring that, they aim to destroy it or stir the pot to ensure regular price increases in order to raise the wounded bear back up on its feet.

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I'd suggest only two caveats. Putin visited Iran and he talked a lot -- but he didn't really say anything. They got no promises from him... :wry:

Also note that your stated presumed goal of oil supply control is probably true but we, China and India may have other ideas.

As they say, "the other guy gets a vote." :cool:

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Originally Posted by Ken White

I'd suggest only two caveats. Putin visited Iran and he talked a lot -- but he didn't really say anything. They got no promises from him... :wry:

Also note that your stated presumed goal of oil supply control is probably true but we, China and India may have other ideas.

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No promises in public. Putin's public statements should always be understood in light of his past as spymaster. What you see ain't what you get with him.

Note that when Primakov visited Milosovic just before Milo grew a backbone he told the Western press that it was sad but he couldn't talk sense into Milosevic. Then Primakov got off the plane in Moscow and announced in Russian that he was reconstructing the Eastern Bloc alliance and Serbia was its first member. (Predictably missed by every news outlet.) Then Russia ran our blockade with fuel for the duration and sent a spy ship to provide signal intelligence. By the end of that conflict by some estimates 10% of all infantry were Russian born "volunteers". Believe me, Russia's old guard would have made much hay from dead Russian volunteers in the Russian homeland. They made the bombs falling on Serbia into a regime change in the motherland.

I'll note that Ahmedinejad isn't the sharpest tool in the shed. What the powers behind the throne in Iran are probably paying attention to is the practical support Russia is giving. That's what I attend to also. That and the outcomes of the game. As we have seen, it is easy to screw things up, and in the last resort, to raise the price of oil that is all it takes. The Kremlin is nothing if not ruthless. One sees that very clearly sitting in a small nation nearby to Russia when they don't give a damn if the iron claws get seen.

The Kremlin is playing, "Heads we win, tails you lose" right now. Our side isn't being clever at all about big picture strategy. That the USA is weakening itself economically with warfare that simultaneously raises the price of oil is a bonus for the Kremlin (which has few economic ties to us unlike China). That economic malaise in the USA will cause a case of economic bird flu in China is another bonus. Those boys in Moscow are excellent zero-sum game thinkers. They ain't dumb, they just look at the world through a different lens than we do. A very different lens. And they are motivated as all hell these days. They have watched their country collapse into a state so far below that of the USA in the great depression it's hard for Americans to imagine.

For what it's worth, I got one report a few years back from a fairly reliable source (i.e. every other checkable report from that source had been correct) that Igor Giorgadze had been meeting with bin Laden prior to 9-11. But that's just a report and even if true proves nothing. It would make sense for their intelligence service to keep tabs on ol' Osama. They had fewer illusions about what he was about than we did prior to 9-11. But on the other hand, Giorgadze is a very high level agent whose previous assignment was to take over a nation...

Frankly, I think our side has gotten fat, dumb, happy and full of hubris. I advise serious caution. We blew a big opportunity in th 90's to make a great friend. Let's hope we can weather the rise of Russia without becoming too much of enemies again. Rise they will, with a seriousness of purpose that hasn't been seen in our nation for a couple hundred years.

I'm aware of the facts in your first paragraph but I suggest what he did say gives a clue to what he did not say. We'll see.

Agree that we are not being clever on world strategy; I think we got tunnel vision and are just now starting to realize that. Probably some in high places in DC still haven't realized it. :mad:

The war isn't weakening us all that much though it certainly isn't strengthening us. Only concern to me is that someone will over estimate the weakening effect... :wry:

I totally agree with your last paragraph and spent a lot of the early 90s fulminating about the errors of Bush 41 and Clinton in trying to be clever and in the process, alienating Russia. Dumbb -- With two 'b's...

We live in interesting times... :D

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Originally Posted by Ken White

I totally agree with your last paragraph and spent a lot of the early 90s fulminating about the errors of Bush 41 and Clinton in trying to be clever and in the process, alienating Russia. Dumbb -- With two 'b's...

We live in interesting times... :D

---

In regards to Russia, I think the errors are at least partly understandable given that our Big Enemy of fifty years had suddenly disintegrated. Clinton's foreign relations people were groping for a new US strategic concept for their entire eight years in office.

Additionally, I'm not sure exactly how befriending an authoritarian, corrupt oligarchy is in our interests - or are you saying better relations with Russia in the early-to-mid-90s would have prevented Russia's slipping to it's position today?

Matt

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Originally Posted by MattC86

In regards to Russia, I think the errors are at least partly understandable given that our Big Enemy of fifty years had suddenly disintegrated. Clinton's foreign relations people were groping for a new US strategic concept for their entire eight years in office.

Additionally, I'm not sure exactly how befriending an authoritarian, corrupt oligarchy is in our interests - or are you saying better relations with Russia in the early-to-mid-90s would have prevented Russia's slipping to it's position today?

Matt

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I agree they were groping -- so was Bush 41 -- and it was a whole new world. Further, the lack of direction was fed by a lack of intelligence (apparently). Those understandable things were compounded by a lack of vision and the old American ego; "Nana-nana nana -- we won!"

It would have been in our interest to help because that may have precluded the oligarchy turning into government by KGB. They needed money, we waste more money in a week than it would have taken to buy some of their stuff (all sorts, including oil), like AN 74s for which we could find a good use. Stuff for other people. ;)

That may or may not have changed things for the future but the condescension and arrogance we showed wasn't helpful. We do that way too often and it never helps, usually does a lot of harm. :mad:

We're still good at that; saw last week where in the messages we sent to Poland and The Czech Republic re: antimissile stuff, we provided responses that they only need to sign and return-- which caused both nations to go into the diplomatic stall mode. Rightly so. That isn't just arrogant, it's stupid.

You can kick a dog just so many times and sooner or later it's going to turn around and bite you -- and Nations aren't as tolerant as dogs...

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Originally Posted by Ken White

... Further, the lack of direction was fed by a lack of intelligence (apparently). Those understandable things were compounded by a lack of vision and the old American ego; "Nana-nana nana -- we won!"

It would have been in our interest to help because that may have precluded the oligarchy turning into government by KGB.

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Yes, with caveats. We should have concentrated on trade and opening treaty relations, doing things like giving them mutual passport recognition a la Europe to build bridges. There is an excellent book about the time. "Collision and Collusion: The Strange Case of Western Aid to Eastern Europe" by Wedel.

I'd say it was compounded by academia churning out Russian Studies doctorates who got ahead by quoting each other. Very few spent more than a few days or weeks in the USSR (highly supervised) if that. The fate of Russia was sealed by Clinton's decision to let academia loose to test their theories, as in "Shock Treatment" and giving the field to the 5-Star aid contractors.

In fact, the amount of aid loans and the way they were given were worse than nothing at all. Imagine what would happen in the USA if a nation came in and handed out unsecured loans starting at $1 billion and up to $1 trillion based on the ability of the petitioners to deliver buzz-words in Arabic and kept that up for 4 years, then pulled the plug?

Hey there. Don't go all soft on the new guy so soon. I'll get lazy. ;)

Personally, I think some of the best lobbying we could all do right now is to grant Russia most favored nation status and grant Russian Federation Citizens automatic right to enter the USA without a visa and work. Set up a special mutual passport recognition, but make it unilateral if Putin doesn't like it. :)

There'll be some criminals, but most of them get over here anyway, they just bribe people at embassies. Costs about $50K to wash a record over there and convince key people to put the stamps on. (I've heard reports of as low as $10-$15K, but if they're true, somebody has an employee over a barrel.)

I think it would force Putin to accept the treaty and it would be very popular in Russia, and help us develop business ties more than anything else ever could. That is the only lever I can see that will pry the Kremlin away from its present course.

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

Frankly, I think our side has gotten fat, dumb, happy and full of hubris. I advise serious caution. We blew a big opportunity in th 90's to make a great friend. Let's hope we can weather the rise of Russia without becoming too much of enemies again. Rise they will, with a seriousness of purpose that hasn't been seen in our nation for a couple hundred years.

---

Aside from that nagging little demographic problem...

Hey Brian !

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

Personally, I think some of the best lobbying we could all do right now is to grant Russia most favored nation status and grant Russian Federation Citizens automatic right to enter the USA without a visa and work. Set up a special mutual passport recognition, but make it unilateral if Putin doesn't like it. :)

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I might be inclined to most favored nation status, but visa-free entry would literally equate to opening Pandora's Box on this end of the world. The long-awaited Schengen Visa policy is already a quagmire promising little benefit in exchange for Russians to freely tramp across Europe.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

There'll be some criminals, but most of them get over here anyway, they just bribe people at embassies. Costs about $50K to wash a record over there and convince key people to put the stamps on. (I've heard reports of as low as $10-$15K, but if they're true, somebody has an employee over a barrel.)

---

Jeez, I hope that's not going on at US Embassies. Washing one's record of mafia-relation is one thing (eliminates the host nation MFA from declining the visa request), but 'selling' a US visa for 15K seems highly unlikely.

There's an interesting Russian opinion here regarding Putin's visit to Tehran.

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Solution of the Iranian nuclear issue is in Tehran and Washington, not in Moscow

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Originally Posted by Granite_State

Aside from that nagging little demographic problem...

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Having spoken to Pakistanis in Moscow talking about Russia as the land of wide open opportunity I'd not worry my head about that. We have our own demographic problem, and we have "solved" it the same way. Illegal immigrants. In Russia, most are happy. Russian cops are happy to have more bribe money. Russian workers are happy to have people they can feel better than for a change, maybe even be able to afford a maid or a gardner. Illegals are happy to be out of "fookin' Pakistan." Just like here with south of the border... ;)

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Originally Posted by Stan

I might be inclined to most favored nation status, but visa-free entry would literally equate to opening Pandora's Box on this end of the world. The long-awaited Schengen Visa policy is already a quagmire promising little benefit in exchange for Russians to freely tramp across Europe.
...

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What Pandora's box? So the FSB could do a little S&T spying slightly more easily. Big deal. so we have more pretty Russian girls who like to cook for their husbands? So sad. So we have legions of well educated white folks wanting to attain the American dream and work their asses off. Now that's a problem. You got me. :cool:

The Europeans are doing that for three benefits. A. Low cost labor and immigrant blood that doesn't come from the Muslim world. (They're seriously worried - no kidding.) B. Money from Russians who come to Europe to deposit money in banks that won't go belly up next week. Then they go home. This helps European banks with deposits, and it helps stabilize Russia by allowing the middle class to be protected from Kremlin currency manipulation. C. To develop interlocking business ties with Russia so that Russia will be less difficult in the coming years of ascendancy.

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Originally Posted by Stan

Jeez, I hope that's not going on at US Embassies. Washing one's record of mafia-relation is one thing (eliminates the host nation MFA from declining the visa request), but 'selling' a US visa for 15K seems highly unlikely.

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There, there. :D Seriously, it happens all the time. Ever wonder how those Visas got granted that weren't even filled out properly for the 9-11 boyz? Yes, it does. As I said, usually the price is around $50K, but it goes lower. At least the US embassy doesn't have sales reps hawking space in the diplomatic pouch. Many countries do. I was offered a couple bucks a kilo to transport whatever I wanted to the USA in Pakistan's diplomatic pouch. The Germans pouch has a corner on art and antiques, that sort of thing.

Think about the attitude of the foriegn service officers being assigned to Iraq. They gots yer basic bad attitude, they gots their college compadres making more than they are, it's a setup.

It's too bad I wasn't allowed to communicate with embassy audit. But yes, Virginia, there IS a santa claus in the foriegn service! :)

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

There, there. :D Seriously, it happens all the time.

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Brian,

Are the FSOs working in conjunction with the FSNs? I just ran this past my wife, there are a lot of checks and balances to prevent this from happening.

Gotta agree with an old Africa hand there.

I've only served in 7 Embassies during 23 years of active duty, so pardon my lack of experience herein :D

Just exactly how does one sell a US Visa ?

and gets a rubber stamp made, buys some odd paper and sets up shop... :D

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

It's too bad I wasn't allowed to communicate with embassy audit. But yes, Virginia, there IS a santa claus in the foriegn service! :)

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Brian,

Skip embassy audit, you need to report this to DS at the very least. Your background in anti terrorism dictates this gapping hole in our security needs to be plugged ASAP.

If you need some POCs, send me a PM. One of my buddies works at State, I'll pass this thread on to him if you want.

S/F

Paul

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Originally Posted by Ken White

and gets a rubber stamp made, buys some odd paper and sets up shop... :D

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Actually, the days of the rubber stamp are older than Christ when he was just a Corporal (in the Army, Nichols ;) )

The application approval process is at best arduous and no one individual can rubber stamp you to the USA. The 'foils' that are printed are a royal pain in the Alpha to handle, and are so sensitive they often tear when applying them.

I've done both full tours and various TDYs in places like Tbilisi where Brian was, but life in the fish bowl is often more secure, with or without an MSG, than the common person thinks.

I fully concur with Nichols. This situation regardless of how long ago and where it took place, should be immediately reported.

Brian,

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

What Pandora's box? So the FSB could do a little S&T spying slightly more easily. Big deal. so we have more pretty Russian girls who like to cook for their husbands? So sad. So we have legions of well educated white folks wanting to attain the American dream and work their asses off. Now that's a problem. You got me. :cool:

---

I'm not at all concerned about additional FSB wannabes getting visas. They are not the likely ones to set up OC and prostitution rings in CONUS, they're too busy killing their former FSB agents and (ahem) spying. Suffices to say, that things have changed exponentially since your time in Georgia. I'm only 3 hours from St. Pete, and have observed first hand who and what makes the border crossings (legally or otherwise). As for all those pretty girls running to the States, well that's just naive to conclude. Better to observe the current Nashi forums all over Europe nearly identical to Kim's concept, only these Nashi are volunteering and procreating for Putin. We're a long, long way from those patriotic days of merely sleeping/spying for the Motherland.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

The Europeans are doing that for three benefits. A. Low cost labor and immigrant blood that doesn't come from the Muslim world. (They're seriously worried - no kidding.) B. Money from Russians who come to Europe to deposit money in banks that won't go belly up next week. Then they go home. This helps European banks with deposits, and it helps stabilize Russia by allowing the middle class to be protected from Kremlin currency manipulation. C. To develop interlocking business ties with Russia so that Russia will be less difficult in the coming years of ascendancy.

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A. Been to Germany lately ? Those are not cheap Russian laborers.
B. You got me there. Even the nouveaux riche here don't do banks. Strickly cash transactions, no trails that lead home.
C. I feel you adequately answered this one earlier. There's no such animal as interlocking business relationships or ties with Russia. They break every deal and business arrangement at will.

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Originally Posted by Stan

Actually, the days of the rubber stamp are older than Christ when he was just a Corporal (in the Army, Nichols ;) )

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Stan, my friend, buddy, fellow SNCO; I can see where you are confused, some people think BC means Before Christ's birth. It's a good thing I'm here to teach you. BC stands for Before Corps:D

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Originally Posted by Stan

The application approval process is at best arduous and no one individual can rubber stamp you to the USA. The 'foils' that are printed are a royal pain in the Alpha to handle, and are so sensitive they often tear when applying them.)

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You should have seen the interview that I had to take with the RSO when I reported that I was dating a girl from Visa Services:eek:

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Originally Posted by Stan

with or without an MSG, than the common person thinks.

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Stan, if you wuld be so kind as to let me know your future posts, I'll let Battalion now so that they will only send MSGs (now they are MCESC) that smoke in order to borrow cigarettes from you.......;)

Hey Paul !

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Originally Posted by nichols

Stan, my friend, buddy, fellow SNCO; I can see where you are confused, some people think BC means Before Christ's birth. It's a good thing I'm here to teach you. BC stands for Before Corps

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Ya know, you almost got me there, bud. A quick check for the acronym Bravo Charlie revealed some additional interesting meanings, but it seems Acronym Finder lacks the USMC variant :eek:

Birth Control
Boot Camp
Bill Clinton
Basket Case
Big Cheese
Bacon Cheeseburger
Baghdad College
Before Children
Before Computers
Bull Crap and Biocomposites Centre (that's a latrine)
bottom current, US DoD (hmmm, an E-1 ?)

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Originally Posted by nichols

You should have seen the interview that I had to take with the RSO when I reported that I was dating a girl from Visa Services:eek:

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You should have seen my RSOs and especially Tom's face when I told them I had more than once instance of 'bonds of affection' with a Romanian woman during a civil war :D

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Originally Posted by nichols

Stan, if you wuld be so kind as to let me know your future posts, I'll let Battalion now so that they will only send MSGs (now they are MCESC) that smoke in order to borrow cigarettes from you.......

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You just couldn't leave at least one acronym alone so the rest of us could keep up :mad:

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Originally Posted by Stan

Actually, the days of the rubber stamp are older than Christ when he was just a Corporal (in the Army, Nichols ;) )

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Just because I'm the only one here whose clothing record documents the issue of a "Fig Leaf, Winter Service, Green"... ;)

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The application approval process is at best arduous and no one individual can rubber stamp you to the USA. The 'foils' that are printed are a royal pain in the Alpha to handle, and are so sensitive they often tear when applying them.

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Heh. Even as long ago as when I was in Tehran the common complaint from the Iraniha who applied was that they could get a UK Visa in three days with two signatures and a US Visa took weeks and four signatures. Bureaucracy r us.:D

Hey Ken !

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Originally Posted by Ken White

Just because I'm the only one here whose clothing record documents the issue of a "Fig Leaf, Winter Service, Green"...

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Actually, I think Goesh has you beat when he pinned Christ's E-4 stripes on :eek: What, no Olive Drab back then ?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ken White

Heh. Even as long ago as when I was in Tehran the common complaint from the Iraniha who applied was that they could get a UK Visa in three days with two signatures and a US Visa took weeks and four signatures. Bureaucracy r us.:D

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Precisely ! Your point is just what I wanted to hear. The US Visa denial record here in the 90s was so abysmal, that Estonians and Russians were trying to apply in Canada and Finland (although that doesn't work well without a registered domicile (there)).

I wish it was that easy to say Bureaucracy was at fault. Fact is, the Consular is often the most junior officer with exactly 0.0001 days of time in service. With his/her departure for the first post, the riot act from not only State, but INS is read. Zero Tolerance...Fear Factor at post is then amplified to plus 10.

I might add that this situation involves a friendly nation :wry:

If the FSO is lazy and let's the FSN do the brunt of duties processing the visa, there's more than enough room for error and/or Slippin and a Sliding :D

Regards, Stan

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Originally Posted by Stan

You just couldn't leave at least one acronym alone so the rest of us could keep up :mad:

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They changed from Marine Security Guard Battalion (MSG Bn) to Marine Corps Embassy Security Command (MCESC) right smack in the middle of a computer purchase that I was running for them. We had computers going to III MEF SOTG, MCMWTC Bridgeport, and MSG Bn. Changing all of the req forms in the middle of acquisition from MSG to MCESC made me want to get in a fetal position and cry in the shower. The admin wizards at C4I were taking sniper shots at my paperwork throughout the whole process.

Everything worked out in the long run. WAWA didn't beat me this time. 15 detachments have two highend laptops (each, 30 computers total) in Sahel Africa and they are learning to sprechen sie french;)

My days in the caucasus are barely over. Just shut down end of 2005. And I had an excellent girlfriend who was a Russian homicide cop for a while there. :) Who was pumping whom, and for what? Now that is a question. :D

What I'm telling you about corruption and visas is my experience based on pricing I acquired in the FSU. Now I hung with some interesting folks at times, but I ain't making it up. It's not my job to report that kind of stuff, and yes, I know how much of a battle it is to get anyone at the embassy to listen. We Americans want red hot proof and unequivocal evidence. All very tiresome and dangerous as hell to someone in country and to those who remain behind. We Americans are experts in bureaucratic form over substance these days. It's a problem and it's a weakness that most definitely is exploited. Just because 4 signatures are required doesn't mean that each signatory examines them for accuracy better. Come, come. You all are in the military bureaucracy. Never gotten a signature on something your boss didn't read through? ;)

My recommendation is to make it a single signature system. Why? Because that narrows responsibility down to one person who is on the hook for it. That means that audit can sample visas and go over them with a fine tooth comb. The more signatures you put on a paper, the more it spreads the blame.

The vast majority of those acquiring visas this way are just ordinary folks, no better or worse than anyone else wanting "to get out of fookin' Rocciya". It's a low priority on my stack. Very low.

Maybe I should hang out a shingle? "Corruption Specialist"

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

...
Come, come. You all are in the military bureaucracy. Never gotten a signature on something your boss didn't read through? ;)

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Actually we're all retired. Can't speak for the others but for me the answer to your question is no -- not because I'm Joe Straight Arrow but because that kind of stupidity almost always gets caught so it's a waste of effort and I'm lazy. And State is far more bureaucratic than the Army...:rolleyes:

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My recommendation is to make it a single signature system. Why? Because that narrows responsibility down to one person who is on the hook for it. That means that audit can sample visas and go over them with a fine tooth comb. The more signatures you put on a paper, the more it spreads the blame.

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Good plan. If you aren't into reporting stuff but are convinced there's a weakness and care enough to mention it, you could always write about it on a weblog.

Quote:

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The vast majority of those acquiring visas this way are just ordinary folks, no better or worse than anyone else wanting "to get out of fookin' Rocciya". It's a low priority on my stack. Very low

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Yeah, I have low priority stuff also. Rarely mention it at all. :cool:

Quote:

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Maybe I should hang out a shingle? "Corruption Specialist"

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I dunno. What with all the debates about scientific ethics nowadays that might not be a good plan. :D

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

My recommendation is to make it a single signature system. Why? Because that narrows responsibility down to one person who is on the hook for it. That means that audit can sample visas and go over them with a fine tooth comb. The more signatures you put on a paper, the more it spreads the blame.

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How many signatures are on a visa?

Hey Paul,

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Originally Posted by nichols

How many signatures are on a visa?

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The answer is none ! The foil contains typical info about the traveler along with a digital photo.

The forms used for processing US Visas (DS-156 for non-immigrant visas and in addition DS-157 for all men, ages 16 to 45) can have as many as 5 signatories. The host government's MFA plays an important role and may also provide a signature, but rarely does.

The counselor is on the hook as Brian puts it, regardless of how many people are in the chain or process.

Hey Brian,

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

My days in the caucasus are barely over. Just shut down end of 2005.

What I'm telling you about corruption and visas is my experience based on pricing I acquired in the FSU. Now I hung with some interesting folks at times, but I ain't making it up.

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So these people that you are referring to, bought their US Visas as late as 2005 ? I remain concerned that these typical everyday Russian citizens are still illegally obtaining US Visas.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

It's not my job to report that kind of stuff, and yes, I know how much of a battle it is to get anyone at the embassy to listen. We Americans want red hot proof and unequivocal evidence. All very tiresome and dangerous as hell to someone in country and to those who remain behind. We Americans are experts in bureaucratic form over substance these days. It's a problem and it's a weakness that most definitely is exploited. Just because 4 signatures are required doesn't mean that each signatory examines them for accuracy better.

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Paul and I were thinking about reporting these instances a lot higher than the very same Embassy where visas are being sold. Quite frankly, reporting such instances is every American's job.

Such an 'exploitable area of the US Embassy in Moscow' should not be permitted to continue.

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

Come, come. You all are in the military bureaucracy. Never gotten a signature on something your boss didn't read through? ;)

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That's barely a good comparison to selling US Visas to 'perfectly normal Russians'. If they can't get the visa in a legal fashion, then there's obviously a reason why.

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Originally Posted by Stan

The answer is none ! The foil contains typical info about the traveler along with a digital photo.

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I knew I'd get the straight scoop from you, no way in hell was I going to ask Lenka that question at 0 dark thirty when I posted.:D

Brian,

I haven't been able to figureout how a microbiology specialist working for a drug company not associated with the State Department in Central Asia knows about a visa blackmarket. Did you witness it firsthand or was it by word of mouth from other sources?

You really need to report this.

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Originally Posted by nichols

I knew I'd get the straight scoop from you, no way in hell was I going to ask Lenka that question at 0 dark thirty when I posted.:D

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I feel like I've been used by the USMC :eek: You were sufficiently concerned about waking the better half :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Stan

So these people that you are referring to, bought their US Visas as late as 2005 ? I remain concerned that these typical everyday Russian citizens are still illegally obtaining US Visas.

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What I'll say about that is that in Tbilisi circa 2003-2005 the specific method I was aware of was for the local jewish group to certify people as jews, and for information to be cleaned. I do not know of a specific instance of buying a visa through payoffs to embassies in that period from 2000-2005. However, I have no particular reason to think that it did not happen after a brief post 9-11 lull. The fundamental conditions and motivations have not changed. Our systems are just as vulnerable as they were.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Stan

Paul and I were thinking about reporting these instances a lot higher than the very same Embassy where visas are being sold. Quite frankly, reporting such instances is every American's job.

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I understand where you are coming from, but I disagree. There are multiple reasons why coming down on such arrangements could jeopardize bigger fish by far than that. It is a much better thing to understand that no system is perfect. Improve audit methods and personnel. That will make a difference.

Believe me, if I thought someone was coming through that way that was a serious hazard I'd let it be known.

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Originally Posted by Stan

That's barely a good comparison to selling US Visas to 'perfectly normal Russians'. If they can't get the visa in a legal fashion, then there's obviously a reason why.

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Absolute nonsense. Embassy personnel do what the like and make arbitrary decisions constantly. Anyone that has had to deal with them from the other side knows this quite well. Here's an example. I gave a recommendation to one Major Konstantine Gigitashvili, an Afghan war veteran of the Soviets, to go to work for KBR as a contractor. They interviewed him, said they'd hire him and signed him up. To do so, however, he was required to attend training in Texas. (Don't ask me why. Clearly KBR has no idea what a chore it is to get people from the developing world into the USA unless they are academics.) He went to the embassy to get a visa with my letter of recommendation and was literally yelled at by the woman at the embassy. She said she would never let him have a visa because "You want to emigrate!" This was pure horsemanure. She was just implementing her private feud against the Bush administration and contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now, that's a guy who came close to putting his life on the line for me, and did some things for us. He's very pro-USA, a Major in the Georgian Army who most recently fought against the Russians around Tskhinvali in south Ossetia. So, Konstantine is cooling his heels in Tbilisi. We still write each other once in a while. Mostly he tells me what a Casanova sock-puppet that idiot Saakishvili is.

I got reports from Tbilisi that the Iranians were buying up nice looking white boy orphans from orphanages there. All between 5 and 7 years of age in good health. Now, you might ask why I would care about that?

Take a look at the history of the Janissaries. Those boys are almost certainly being trained in Iran as we speak to become highly trained, smart terrorist weapons against the West. They will be taught to speak American English, they will be taught how to act and dress and they will be filled with a great purpose and turned loose. That, I think matters.

Thanks for posting it.

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Originally Posted by Stan

Quite frankly, reporting such instances is every American's job.

.....That's barely a good comparison to selling US Visas to 'perfectly normal Russians'. If they can't get the visa in a legal fashion, then there's obviously a reason why.

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

.......Believe me, if I thought someone was coming through that way that was a serious hazard I'd let it be known....

...Embassy personnel do what the like and make arbitrary decisions constantly....

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So, you arrogate to yourself full knowledge that there is no one "coming through that way that was a serious hazard" as a justification for not reporting illegal activity that could pose a potentially significant threat to US security. Of course, you also buttress that with a complaint about embassy bureaucratic arbitrariness that, as true as it may be, is also beside the point.

Your statements reflect a serious lack of integrity. I also have doubts of your veracity - or, perhaps, it is just that your naivete in relations with the indig is overwhelming. Could go either way, or be a bit of both....

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

I got reports from Tbilisi that the Iranians were buying up nice looking white boy orphans from orphanages there. All between 5 and 7 years of age in good health. Now, you might ask why I would care about that?

Take a look at the history of the Janissaries. Those boys are almost certainly being trained in Iran as we speak to become highly trained, smart terrorist weapons against the West. They will be taught to speak American English, they will be taught how to act and dress and they will be filled with a great purpose and turned loose. That, I think matters.

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First and foremost my apologies if I appear slightly lost with your recent post. We’ve gone from selling and manipulating oil and oil prices to granting free visas to Russians (even if that amounts to more spies in the USA), to visas for ordinary Russian citizens (who want out of Russia), to uncertified Jewish folks in Georgia, and now young boys being purchased for future apprenticeship training programs in Iran.

Huh ?

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Originally Posted by Jedburgh

So, you arrogate to yourself full knowledge that there is no one "coming through that way that was a serious hazard" as a justification for not reporting illegal activity that could pose a potentially significant threat to US security. Of course, you also buttress that with a complaint about embassy bureaucratic arbitrariness that, as true as it may be, is also beside the point.

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Beside the point? It's a reason why people go around to get to this land of the free by hook or by crook. With what, 15 million illegals in the USA right now, a few people slipping through from the FSU is going to rile me? No.

You are welcome to go and make such a case to State. Be my guest. After you've knocked yourself out, have a beer on me.

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

What I'll say about that is that in Tbilisi circa 2003-2005 the specific method I was aware of was for the local jewish group to certify people as jews, and for information to be cleaned. I do not know of a specific instance of buying a visa through payoffs to embassies in that period from 2000-2005. However, I have no particular reason to think that it did not happen after a brief post 9-11 lull. The fundamental conditions and motivations have not changed. Our systems are just as vulnerable as they were.

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You can't even fathom what post 9/11 did to Embassies around the world :mad: A brief lull ? In operations ? What, did they all go on vacation ?
Our systems are only vulnerable when folks conclude on their own, that reporting instances of illegal activity are 'somebody else's job'. Please don't tell me that those 'Stateless people' are now buying US Visas.

I was TDY in Tbilisi when the embassy first reopened and Georgia was similar to the wild, wild West. Got news for you though, we didn't have nor did we need a Counselor officer.

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

I understand where you are coming from, but I disagree. There are multiple reasons why coming down on such arrangements could jeopardize bigger fish by far than that. It is a much better thing to understand that no system is perfect. Improve audit methods and personnel. That will make a difference.

Believe me, if I thought someone was coming through that way that was a serious hazard I'd let it be known.

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Had you consulted with DS and the FBI in order to determine that there are bigger fish and reporting visa fraud was otherwise useless ?

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

Absolute nonsense. Embassy personnel do what the like and make arbitrary decisions constantly. Anyone that has had to deal with them from the other side knows this quite well. Here's an example. I gave a recommendation to one Major Konstantine Gigitashvili, an Afghan war veteran of the Soviets, to go to work for KBR as a contractor. They interviewed him, said they'd hire him and signed him up. To do so, however, he was required to attend training in Texas. (Don't ask me why. Clearly KBR has no idea what a chore it is to get people from the developing world into the USA unless they are academics.) He went to the embassy to get a visa with my letter of recommendation and was literally yelled at by the woman at the embassy. She said she would never let him have a visa because "You want to emigrate!" This was pure horsemanure. She was just implementing her private feud against the Bush administration and contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now, that's a guy who came close to putting his life on the line for me, and did some things for us. He's very pro-USA, a Major in the Georgian Army who most recently fought against the Russians around Tskhinvali in south Ossetia. So, Konstantine is cooling his heels in Tbilisi. We still write each other once in a while. Mostly he tells me what a Casanova sock-puppet that idiot Saakishvili is.

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As I indicated in my previous posts, the Counselor bears sole responsibility for visa approval and denial (via INS). Even the Ambo cannot legally intervene. Had KBR gone through State channels and requested a visa referral and backed that request with documentation, the request would have been forwarded directly to INS and the Counselor. Bottom line, the request starts in the States. Your letter of recommendation as an Expat in Georgia carried no weight. That, is the way it goes even today.

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

I got reports from Tbilisi that the Iranians were buying up nice looking white boy orphans from orphanages there. All between 5 and 7 years of age in good health. Now, you might ask why I would care about that?

Take a look at the history of the Janissaries. Those boys are almost certainly being trained in Iran as we speak to become highly trained, smart terrorist weapons against the West. They will be taught to speak American English, they will be taught how to act and dress and they will be filled with a great purpose and turned loose. That, I think matters.

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Personally, I think all those alleged US visas are being bought by Iranian agents for kidnapped Georgian orphans--who are even now being trained by the MOIS and the IRGC to infiltrate University of Chicago Press and various graduate anthropology programs, with the ultimate aim of creating havoc in the future development of US military doctrine by insisting that field manuals adhere to academic citation standards.

I propose Stan be dispatched with a bevy of biker chicks to sort this all out.

(How's that for pulling together all the threads?)

Otherwise, I'm inclined to agree with Ted.

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Originally Posted by Brian Hanley

Beside the point? It's a reason why people go around to get to this land of the free by hook or by crook. With what, 15 million illegals in the USA right now, a few people slipping through from the FSU is going to rile me? No.

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"The point" is not the broader case of illegal immigration. It is your claim to have direct knowledge of illegal activity occurring overseas that has a potential impact on national security, then dismissing any responsibility for reporting it either while in-country or upon return to the US.

On the contrary, the manner in which you structure your statements on this matter at best minimizes the importance of the issue, at worst, they imply that you support such activity in contravention of "embassy arbitrariness".

If your statements are true, then you have a serious integrity issue.

If your statements are false, then you simply have the less-serious integrity issue of being a liar.

Finally, I caution you to consider the background of the membership on this board when before you respond to, or create threads.

In any case, this thread is now closed.