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I'm sure China's rivals would love to see them walk in there and smack that tar baby, but do you really think they'll oblige? They are not geniuses, but I think they are smart enough not to repeat the white man's folly. I think they have very little interest in taking over and no interest at all in solving problems: they'll cut deals with whoever's in power, extract all they can, and move on when things fall apart.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMA
Oh you again...
Yes that is where the Chinese are different to the Brtis and French in their modus operandi but there will come a time when they just can't stand by and let their 'investments' be threatened.
A hint for you on where to educate yourself on the watershed moment for China betweeh arms length almost risk free use of bribery to gain access to natural resources (and increasingly land) and the need to get involved in peace and security actions to protect their often substantial investments is South Sudan (with more to follow).
There is a lot going on here - in Africa - as no doubt in your neck of the woods and my best advice remains that you (and others) make sure your children learn Mandarin Chinese with the first word being 'boss'.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dayuhan
So far the Chinese approach has been to extract as much and as fast as possible with little effort to meddle in what passes for governance and no effort at all to solve any problems that aren't their own. That may of course change, if investments are threatened. When that happens, the Chinese may do what the Westerners have traditionally not done: weigh the value of the investment against the cost of "peace and security actions", which of course have less to do with peace or security than with securing investments, not necessarily the same thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMA
Depending on the results of that assessment, they may be smart enough to write investments off and walk away, or they may choose to jump into the grinder. If they make the latter choice, we can all sit around here and watch the Chinese mess up a small war. I am confident that they can do that every bit as well as their Western predecessors. I expect that engagement in "peace and security actions" in Africa, or elsewhere outside China, will be far more a liability than an asset to China.
An ironic prediction, given the rather intense interest of so many Chinese in learning English and establishing any pied a terre they can outside China. Given the depth and breadth of China's domestic issues, the image of the all conquering Chinese juggernaut doesn't really hold up very well. The rest of the world is as likely to face the problem of a Chinese implosion (which would be a big problem) as it is to have to manage Chinese dominance.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMA
Probably straying onto the territory of the "China's Expanding Role..." thread, but so it goes.
The PRC was a supporter of UNITA and they are presently contributing to MINUSMA. But I take your meaning that they have not made any OEF scale commitments.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dayuhan
World of difference between slipping some money and goods to insurgents whose cause aligns with your perceived interests and trying to suppress an insurgency and/or sustain a government to support your own investments.Quote:
Originally Posted by ganulv
I don’t disagree with you there at all. I just wanted to point out that the PRC isn’t entirely new to the small wars game in Africa—they have dabbled.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dayuhan
So far maybe, but when they get into exploiting 50-100 year lifespan mines then your theory falls on its a...Quote:
Originally Posted by Dayuhan
I believe you argue for the sake of it.
Wow, now you are moving closer to reality.Quote:
That may of course change, if investments are threatened.
Pure semantics (and a nebulous argument).Quote:
When that happens, the Chinese may do what the Westerners have traditionally not done: weigh the value of the investment against the cost of "peace and security actions", which of course have less to do with peace or security than with securing investments, not necessarily the same thing.
As I stated watch what happens in South Sudan - with oil - and elsewhere with other longterm investments.
For your edification peace and security are vital for an uninterupted flow of mining and the export of mined content. But then again you are just arguing for the sake of it.
Sounds good in theory but you discount the knock-on effect of the loss of the mined resources to the processing industries back in China.Quote:
Depending on the results of that assessment, they may be smart enough to write investments off and walk away, or they may choose to jump into the grinder.
Why? Just because the current and recent major powers scewed up small wars does that mean that the Chinese will be dumb enough to make the same mistakes? You are not producing a logical argument.Quote:
If they make the latter choice, we can all sit around here and watch the Chinese mess up a small war.
So you really do think the Chinese are as dumb as the Brits, French and Americans when it comes to small wars.Quote:
I am confident that they can do that every bit as well as their Western predecessors. I expect that engagement in "peace and security actions" in Africa, or elsewhere outside China, will be far more a liability than an asset to China.
You don't understand sarcasm do you? But then again if you believe that the Chinese migration is not a harbinger of more to come then I can't help you.Quote:
An ironic prediction, given the rather intense interest of so many Chinese in learning English and establishing any pied a terre they can outside China.
Is that your argument to 'do nothing'? You are very predictable ... and mostly wrong as a result.Quote:
Given the depth and breadth of China's domestic issues, the image of the all conquering Chinese juggernaut doesn't really hold up very well. The rest of the world is as likely to face the problem of a Chinese implosion (which would be a big problem) as it is to have to manage Chinese dominance.
Glad you are not a moderator around here. Please do a liitle research and establish the level of Chinese migration is already seen by many Nigerians as problematic. Really Steve you can't continue to post such nonsense.Quote:
Probably straying onto the territory of the "China's Expanding Role..." thread, but so it goes.
A few thoughts.
Today, it is fashionable to treat organisations as franchisees of Al Qaeda. I don't think that's the only way to look at Islamist terrorism in Africa.
I think Al Qaeda made the idea of violent jihad more attractive. The Kanuri members of Boko Haram don't have to look up to Osama Bin Ladin as an example of a jihadi - they have Muhammad Al-Kanemi (1776–1837). Similarly, the Hausa/Fulani jihadis have Usmanu Dan Fodio (1754 - 1817).
There's a lot of history to ponder over - Osama just showed them "it could be done", but many young men aspire to be the next Dan Fodio or Al-Kanemi.
That's why I said "so far". The past doesn't tell us what the Chinese will do in the future. It does give us some indication of their preferred methods. That of course may change, but it's a starting point.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMA
That comes down to a cost calculation: the cost of maintaining peace and security vs the cost of writing off the investment and replacing the resources with those acquired somewhere else. Western powers have often messed up this calculation by grossly underestimating the cost of achieving and maintaining peace and security, a mistake the Chinese might repeat, and by confounding the calculation with ideas about democracy, human rights, and other variations on the archaic "white man's burden" theme. That is a mistake the Chinese are a lot less likely to make.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMA
Only relevant if the resources cannot be replaced by similar resources from another source. Generally they can be: there are very few, if any, really unique single-source resources.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMA
The first and foremost mistake is going into a war that makes no economic sense - where the cost of achieving the goals exceeds the value of the goals - or where the probability of success is low from the start. The Chinese may or may not be more ruthless and more rational than the Western powers in such calculations: they are in no way immune to ego, pride, or any of the other eccentricities that lead people to stick themselves into places better avoided.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMA
I don't see the neocolonial small wars of the West as enterprises that could have worked out if only they were "done right". There are things better not done, and trying to take over another country and run it for your own benefit is one of them. The age for such things is long gone.
We may find out one day. I don't think the possibility of China taking on a small war in Africa is something the US or "the West" should fear, and I see no reason to assume they'll be any better at it than anyone else has been. Their evident reluctance to take on such roles to date does suggest that they at least appreciate the costs and risks.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMA
I do think it's a harbinger of things to come: a whole lot more Chinese will be looking to get out. I do not think they are going to be conquering all before them and reducing the rest of us to vassalhood.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMA
Do nothing about what? If you mean about Chinese involvement in Africa, why would we want to "do something" about it? Not our business if Africans want to do business with Chinese, and in many cases it works to the benefit of the US and the West.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMA
The discussion has gone way outside anything specific to Nigeria, and seems more relevant to the generic "Chinese involvement in Africa" thread. In any case the probability of China taking over Nigeria seems exceedingly remote, and the probability of China solving any of Nigeria's problems - or trying to - approaches zero.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMA
That fashion has been active for a while... Southeast Asian terror organizations have been referred to as "Al Qaeda Franchises" since not long after 9/11. I think it's just a device used by lazy people who don't want to bother trying to understand various regional realities. The "franchise" idea sounds nice and neat, as if there's a coherent organizational chart somewhere with everybody in a nice clean pigeonhole... it just doesn't connect very well to reality.Quote:
Originally Posted by KingJaja
Evangelical pastors in Africa aren't referred to as "Billy Graham franchisees" . Very lazy way of looking at this phenomena which is just as religious as Evangelical Christianity.Quote:
That fashion has been active for a while... Southeast Asian terror organizations have been referred to as "Al Qaeda Franchises" since not long after 9/11. I think it's just a device used by lazy people who don't want to bother trying to understand various regional realities. The "franchise" idea sounds nice and neat, as if there's a coherent organizational chart somewhere with everybody in a nice clean pigeonhole... it just doesn't connect very well to reality.
We in Nigeria know that a Sufi influenced Islam was overshadowed by a Salafist Izala Movement which prepared the ground for violent Salafist organisations like Boko Haram.
Lazy I think is the operative word... Al Qaeda "linked" movement around the world exhibit a huge diversity, both in the degree of "linkage" ad in their nature, which ranges form the purely religious through nationalist, tribal, profit-oriented, etc. Calling them "Al Qaeda franchises" lets people sidestep the burden of actually trying to understand any given group.Quote:
Originally Posted by KingJaja
A few minutes the adverts that appear in the top right of my VDU screen showed an odd picture of a smiling African army officer, with the bylyine '54 Ways to Upport Our Troops' and linked to this website:http://www.ipaidabribenaija.com/news...Fanpwgod75QAoA
This story appears genuine.
The first time I clicked the advert, which puzzled me, I had another website appear for a quite different service offering free webcam access:http://www.thefreecamsecret.com/ap/?...-1919&sanp=adc
Corruption Hampers Fight Against Boko Haram
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Corruption Hampers Fight Against Boko Haram
Which explains a lot!
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David, as I have said before the only reason way Nigerian troops need such support is because the national defense budget has already been looted by the politicians and the generals. The civilians have already paid .... Why do they need to pay again?
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Originally Posted by davidbfpo
Looks like they are doing more than just looting the budget...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle18959056/
Quote:
Nigerian generals, officers found guilty of aiding Boko Haram: report
Ten generals and five other senior military officers were found guilty in courts-martial of providing arms and information to Boko Haram extremists, a leading Nigerian newspaper reported Tuesday...
Dayuhan,
There are Boko Haram sympathizers in the Nigerian military - just like there are Taliban sympathizers in the ISI.
But the ISI would appear to be providing arms and information to the Taliban as a part of official policy. What the Nigerian officers have been convicted of doing looks like a horse of a different color.Quote:
Originally Posted by KingJaja
This is what I was really afraid of.
NB: This part of Nigeria isn't known for Muslim/Christian clashes. This is what Boko Haram will eventually lead to - 1. Reprisal attacks by Christians 2. Formation of Christian militias 3. "Lebanonization" or the situation in Central African Republic being repeated.
Entirely predictable. The legitimacy of the state is being challenged.
http://skytrendnews.com/index.php/ne...-100-massacredQuote:
At least 100 people have been killed in religious riots in Attagara, Aghapalwa and Gwoshe border communities in Gwoza Local Government Area of Borno State.
Christians and Muslims have been killing each other over series of attacks by the Islamic militants, Boko Haram.
No fewer than nine Christian worshippers were said to have been killed last Sunday by the Islamic militants during a service in Attagara village with many others critically injured.
According to reports, the youths in a spontaneous reprisal mobilised themselves and went after the terrorists, killing 37 of them.
However, following the reprisal, sources said some Muslim youths felt the Christian youths did not attack Boko Haram but other Muslims whom they alleged were members of the sect who had attacked and killed Christians and burnt their churches in Attagara Village.
Revenge attacks against the Christian youths led to the burning of the whole village and killing of over 100 villagers.
An elder and member of the community, Ahmed Mohammed Ahmed, told journalists in Maiduguri that Boko Haram members came about 1a.m., attacking the villages as a punishment for killing their members who had earlier attacked churches and communities in the area.
He, however, said that most of the villages in Gwoza were now divided along religious lines, as Christians living among Muslims had fled their homes to relocate to Christian dominated areas.
Muslims, living in areas dominated by Christians have also fled to Muslim dominated areas.