Hence the small "n" northern. The settlement areas of the ethnic Russians in northern Kazakhstan are roughly contiguous with the Russian border, rendering a Donbass-style porous border scenario quite feasible. Russians as a % of the population have continued to fall considerably, primarily due to emigration to Russia or beyond. Nevertheless, if Putin wants to add to his population, I see no more tempting a target.
I can see the Kremlin targeting the Baltics with rhetoric, lawfare and cyberwarfare, in order to divert Western attention, and then swooping in on Kazakhstan instead. Astana has recently made some movements in the direction of China and towards banning the Russian NGOs which keep the diaspora connected to the Kremlin's echochamber.
Nazarbayev is 75 and it is unclear who his successor may be. He comes across as more of a Jaruzelski than a Walesa, which may stay the little green men until he dies, but what then?
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