General CT in Europe (catch all)

**davidbfpo** · 03-28-2016

BBC reporter, Peter Taylor and an assistant, have a hour long 'Panorama' documentary on:

From highly organised cells like the one that killed 130 people in Paris, to lone attackers within our own communities, Panorama reveals how the so-called Islamic State's terror network has been operating secretly in Europe, and Western intelligence agencies' battle to stop it.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode...terror-attacks

It aapeared on TV here 23rd March 2016, it clearly relies on a number of "leaks", notably from the French, supplemented by a number of interviews and especially of an ISIS suspect in French custody.

**davidbfpo** · 03-31-2016

Interesting contribution by Nigel Inkster, ex-SIS (MI6) and now with IISS:http://www.iiss.org/en/iiss%20voices...nd-brexit-c6ab

An interesting part:

Last week I featured briefly in the BBC's Panorama programme, which depicted in remarkable detail how ISIS had planned and orchestrated the complex, multi-phase Paris and Brussels attacks. As is always the way, many of my comments ended up on the cutting-room floor. But during my interview to camera I tried to explain the difficulties intelligence and security services face in dealing with transnational terrorist plots. Intelligence does not come in a regular flow and when it does come it seldom admits of only one interpretation, nor does it always lead inexorably to the next piece in the puzzle. Items of intelligence that in retrospect seem crucially important do not always seem so when they first come to light. Working in counter-terrorism is to see the world always through a glass darkly. Panorama showed that Europe's intelligence and security services knew they were facing a major problem, knew many of the actors involved and were in a desperate race with the terrorists. They were able to avert some of the plots, but could not pre-empt them all. I know from personal experience what it feels like to lose that race. Successful counter-terrorism operations involve a degree of luck. To talk of 'joining the dots', as if the complexities and uncertainties of such work can be reduced to the predictable simplicity of a child's colouring book, is not helpful.

**davidbfpo** · 04-03-2016

A useful commentary by Daniel Byman:https://www.lawfareblog.com/europe-v...rrorism-threat

**davidbfpo** · 06-09-2016

Tom Rogan, an unknown writer to me, in National Review, with a rare article on CT in Germany:http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...sh-terror-cell

One "takeaway" cited in part:

A sustaining theme of the Daesh plots in Europe has been their ambition of sparking public fury and a backlash against Muslims on the continent. Consider the Dusseldorf plotters’ strategy of deploying Syrian men via migrant routes to massacre families on a German street: Had the terrorists succeeded, they would have fueled already significant tensions in Europe over migration from the Middle East.

**davidbfpo** · 12-24-2016

The free, online resource Perspectives on Terrorism has a new edition devoted to terrorism in Europe, with many articles and I will draw attention to only one. Needless to say written before the Berlin attack.

Link to latest issue:http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot

Those who follow CT are probably familiar with the output of a very small Norwegian team, Thomas Hegghammer is one and his article is a 'must read': The Future of Jihadism in Europe: A Pessimistic View:http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/.../view/566/1122

His conclusion ends with:

If the jihadi radicalization problem in Europe does indeed get worse, it may be worth considering radical new approaches, both of the soft and the hard kind. Perhaps Europe needs to spend significantly more to improve education in immigrant-heavy areas. Perhaps we must consider longer prison sentences for terrorism offences. I do not purport to know exactly what might work. However, continuing as we do today, with small, incremental policy adjustments, arguably has a predictable outcome. It is a Europe with much larger intelligence services, an entrenched Muslim economic underclass, and more anti-Muslim sentiment.