General CT in Europe (catch all)

[davidbfpo]

The free, online resource Perspectives on Terrorism has a new edition devoted to terrorism in Europe, with many articles and I will draw attention to only one. Needless to say written before the Berlin attack.

Link to latest issue:http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot

Those who follow CT are probably familiar with the output of a very small Norwegian team, Thomas Hegghammer is one and his article is a 'must read': The Future of Jihadism in Europe: A Pessimistic View:http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/.../view/566/1122

His conclusion ends with:

If the jihadi radicalization problem in Europe does indeed get worse, it may be worth considering radical new approaches, both of the soft and the hard kind. Perhaps Europe needs to spend significantly more to improve education in immigrant-heavy areas. Perhaps we must consider longer prison sentences for terrorism offences. I do not purport to know exactly what might work. However, continuing as we do today, with small, incremental policy adjustments, arguably has a predictable outcome. It is a Europe with much larger intelligence services, an entrenched Muslim economic underclass, and more anti-Muslim sentiment.

[davidbfpo]

Via Twitter

[davidbfpo]

A short BBC News review, with this graphic:


Yes there is the potential for deaths, but the review ends with:

the terror threat hanging over Europeans today is no greater than the one their parents faced.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39540371

[Bill Moore]

A short BBC News review, with this graphic:


Yes there is the potential for deaths, but the review ends with:
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39540371

True if the numbers tell the whole story, but the communists, Algerian freedom fighters, and Palestinian liberation groups conducted terrorism as a form of communication. They did not seek to wipe out Europeans, they sought to either reduce their support for Israel, liberate Algeria (or Ireland), or sway Europe's political leanings to the left. The character of the new threat is different in purpose, and they do seem constrained by their political ends like the other groups. The USSR would only let their proxy groups go so far, while others were self-constrained because it would be counter productive not to be.

ISIS, AQ, and others along these lines are unlikely to be self-constrained from killing as many Europeans as possible. Furthermore, they are not always in isolated cells directed by a higher centralized authority, the advent of self-radicalization makes the threat more unpredictable. Still the biggest today to Europe today seems to be over reacting, and a rapid and illogical shift to the far right politically.

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to WoTR for this article 'Lone actors -v- remote controlled jihadi terrorism rethinking the threat to the West' by Professor Mullins, an Australian and currently in Germany. The purpose is well explained in this sentence:

It is therefore important to re-examine the concept of lone-actor terrorism and to try and appreciate where it fits within the overall spectrum of jihadist terrorist activity in the West.

Link:https://warontherocks.com/2017/04/lo...t-to-the-west/

This graphic is very useful, especially when the author points out that the numbers in brackets refer to number of fatalities vs number of attacks.


He ends with:

The threat to the West is real and we cannot afford to let down our guard, but our adversaries’ intent is far greater than their capabilities. Moreover, this is an indicator of largely successful counter-terrorism. Members of the general public and policymakers alike should understand and appreciate this.

[davidbfpo]

A previously unheard of report by an unknown group, that was published online in October 2016; they are a Central European security group, headquartered @ Bratislava, Slovakia under the title Globsec Policy Institute.
Link to the 34 pg. report:http://www.cepolicy.org/publications...nter-terrorism

It is a broad brush review by "wise old heads", Michael Chertoff being the American aboard and in places quite revealing.

I am just not convinced the solutions are really fit for purpose, if only as the jihadist's focus so far is not on the smaller European nations; nor that what the USA has done structurally is acceptable.

[davidbfpo]

A WaPo article, with many graphics; as the sub-title says:

From 1970 to 2016: 5,215 people died from bombings. 2,463 from assassinations. 2,270 from assaults. 957 from hostage situations. 183 from hijackings. 88 from building attacks. Thousands wounded or missing.

Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...ism-in-europe/