General CT in Europe (catch all)

[davidbfpo]

A useful commentary by Daniel Byman:https://www.lawfareblog.com/europe-v...rrorism-threat

[davidbfpo]

Tom Rogan, an unknown writer to me, in National Review, with a rare article on CT in Germany:http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...sh-terror-cell

One "takeaway" cited in part:

A sustaining theme of the Daesh plots in Europe has been their ambition of sparking public fury and a backlash against Muslims on the continent. Consider the Dusseldorf plotters’ strategy of deploying Syrian men via migrant routes to massacre families on a German street: Had the terrorists succeeded, they would have fueled already significant tensions in Europe over migration from the Middle East.

[davidbfpo]

The free, online resource Perspectives on Terrorism has a new edition devoted to terrorism in Europe, with many articles and I will draw attention to only one. Needless to say written before the Berlin attack.

Link to latest issue:http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot

Those who follow CT are probably familiar with the output of a very small Norwegian team, Thomas Hegghammer is one and his article is a 'must read': The Future of Jihadism in Europe: A Pessimistic View:http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/.../view/566/1122

His conclusion ends with:

If the jihadi radicalization problem in Europe does indeed get worse, it may be worth considering radical new approaches, both of the soft and the hard kind. Perhaps Europe needs to spend significantly more to improve education in immigrant-heavy areas. Perhaps we must consider longer prison sentences for terrorism offences. I do not purport to know exactly what might work. However, continuing as we do today, with small, incremental policy adjustments, arguably has a predictable outcome. It is a Europe with much larger intelligence services, an entrenched Muslim economic underclass, and more anti-Muslim sentiment.

[davidbfpo]

Via Twitter

[davidbfpo]

A short BBC News review, with this graphic:


Yes there is the potential for deaths, but the review ends with:

the terror threat hanging over Europeans today is no greater than the one their parents faced.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39540371

[Bill Moore]

A short BBC News review, with this graphic:


Yes there is the potential for deaths, but the review ends with:
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39540371

True if the numbers tell the whole story, but the communists, Algerian freedom fighters, and Palestinian liberation groups conducted terrorism as a form of communication. They did not seek to wipe out Europeans, they sought to either reduce their support for Israel, liberate Algeria (or Ireland), or sway Europe's political leanings to the left. The character of the new threat is different in purpose, and they do seem constrained by their political ends like the other groups. The USSR would only let their proxy groups go so far, while others were self-constrained because it would be counter productive not to be.

ISIS, AQ, and others along these lines are unlikely to be self-constrained from killing as many Europeans as possible. Furthermore, they are not always in isolated cells directed by a higher centralized authority, the advent of self-radicalization makes the threat more unpredictable. Still the biggest today to Europe today seems to be over reacting, and a rapid and illogical shift to the far right politically.

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to WoTR for this article 'Lone actors -v- remote controlled jihadi terrorism rethinking the threat to the West' by Professor Mullins, an Australian and currently in Germany. The purpose is well explained in this sentence:

It is therefore important to re-examine the concept of lone-actor terrorism and to try and appreciate where it fits within the overall spectrum of jihadist terrorist activity in the West.

Link:https://warontherocks.com/2017/04/lo...t-to-the-west/

This graphic is very useful, especially when the author points out that the numbers in brackets refer to number of fatalities vs number of attacks.


He ends with:

The threat to the West is real and we cannot afford to let down our guard, but our adversaries’ intent is far greater than their capabilities. Moreover, this is an indicator of largely successful counter-terrorism. Members of the general public and policymakers alike should understand and appreciate this.