General CT in Europe (catch all)

[davidbfpo]

A short nineteen page analysis by Raffaello Pantucci, of ICSR, presented in July 2011 at Chatham House:http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/de..._terrorism.pdf

This paper will explore the current state of the threat to Europe, how it is connected to the broader threat that is faced in the United States and how it has evolved in this direction. In concluding, it will offer some thoughts on the current direction the threat is going and sketch out some problems that
Europe might face in countering it.... Nevertheless, violent Islamist terrorism with its preference for large-scale multiple strikes using suicide bombers often
coordinated by outside actors continues to be the main threat that is focused on by European security services.

Several references are made to information recovered in OBL's home.

Regarding Preventing / Countering Violent Extremism (PVE / CVE):

the world has not yet found an effective and comprehensive solution to the problem of young people becoming excited by globalist Islamist anti-establishmentarian narratives and becoming persuaded to go and fight abroad and in some cases come back and plot terrorist acts. Broadly captured under the banner of Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE) by the British government and subsequently emulated by many, the world has notably not managed to crack this code.

Ends with:

While it is clear that intelligence services across Europe have now begun to understand what it is that they are facing and to go
about chasing it, they remain unclear of how exactly to stamp it out. Consequently, ten years after 11 September 2001, Europe is continuing to manage its terrorist problem rather than eradicate it.

[Bill Moore]

I don't think this study broke any new ground, but it is useful because it is unclassified and therefore valuable as an education tool for those who don't understand the nature of the threat.

One part of the study was the author's apparent conflicted view on the importance of Al Qaeda Core. In one paragraph he'll argue they're not important, and then in the next point to their control of terrorist cells in the West. In short AQ Core remains important (though less important), and as the study points out the threat ideology has taken on a life of its own allowing numerous individuals, cells and other organizations to participate in open source Jihad.

I didn't see any valuable recommendations in the study, but I think one he could have pointed out was that due to fragmented nature of Jihad threat and other terrorist groups and lone wolfs acting to support various cause that it is impertative that the European States maintain capable police and intelligence services and that the their people are educated to be eyes and ears for security forces.

There is no silver bullet for eliminating the threat or preventing the conversion of frustrated young people to the various extremist causes.

[davidbfpo]

Under such a lurid headline, this is a newspaper story based on 'a senior intelligence source' and a "leaked" document - which may add some context to this thread.

The 200 British residents thought to be planning suicide attacks, either within the UK or overseas, represent one in 10 of the wider group of 2,000 terrorist plotters.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...cks-in-UK.html

[Bill Moore]

In no way are my comments intended to dismiss the very real and growing threat of Islamist terrorism in the U.K.; however, I find the "conservative" estimate of 200 suicide bombers in the U.K. to be a bit of a reach.

While a lot of young and not so young want to be jihadists will brag about their desire to die as a martyr for the cause, most suicide bombers (the real ones) undergo an intensive indoctrination period (or brainwashing) and then held in isolation until it is time to hit the target, because historically it has been demonstrated that they'll have a change of heart if they're allowed to rejoin society and become a sleeper bomber of sorts. Maybe there are Islamist safe havens within the U.K. where 10s of would be suicide bombers are isolated from the rest of society, but it seems unlikely. Of course I need to caveat the above statement that not all suicide bombers require extensive indoctrination (they're already true believers) and can hide in society openly for months and still hit their target as many of the 9/11 attackers did.

One report quoted an MI6 officer's briefing to US officials in which he said: "The internal threat is growing more dangerous because some extremists are conducting non-lethal training without ever leaving the country. Should these extremists then decide to become suicide operatives, HMG [Her Majesty's Government] intelligence resources, eavesdropping and surveillance would be hard pressed to find them on any 'radar screen'."

What type of non-lethal training are they talking about? Indoctrination?

There is no doubt that the insider threat is a growing concern in Europe and possibly the U.S. (especially the lone wolf attacks), but a suicide attack is an entirely different level. If they have the infrastructure in place within Europe (and in this case the UK) to indoctrinate, radicalize, inspire tens of individuals to conduct a suicide attack, and then of course actually provide the materials to do so (a topic not addressed in the article) then the threat is worse than I thought.

[davidbfpo]

A rare, detailed article on counter-terrorism in Belguim before the latest attacks in Paris, a week after the Hebdo attack; the former were linked to a suburb of Brussels, Molenbeek:http://www.buzzfeed.com/joshuahersh/...ns#.pgNVQOLglm

The headline & sub-title:

What They Missed: The Anti-Terror Raid That Asked All The Wrong Questions Ten months before the deadly attacks in Paris, a nighttime raid in a quiet corner of Belgium left an apartment destroyed, two suspected attackers dead, one man arrested — and a host of unanswered questions. BuzzFeed News’ Joshua Hersh investigates a shoot-out that showed Europe’s terrorism problem starts at home.

[davidbfpo]

Taken from CTC's Sentinel an article by Raffaello Pantucci; the Abstract says:

While clearly at the top of the Islamic State’s targeting list, the United Kingdom so far has been spared from any major terrorist atrocities at home with direct links to the Islamic State. A review of the trials of those accused of terrorist plotting in the country between 2013 and 2015 reveals that the violent Islamist threat picture has instead been dominated by lone-actor plots, with some demonstrating connections of some sort to individuals on the battlefield in Syria or Iraq. Going forward, however, the threat is likely to become more acute as the Islamic State pivots toward international terror.

Link:https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-i...-terror-trials