General CT in Europe (catch all)

[davidbfpo]

A WSJ commentary by Thomas Hegghammer, a Norwegian SME on CT; it may be behind a registration wall. He ends with:

This hardening of European attitudes toward terrorism didn’t happen overnight. It’s part of a longer trend that began after 9/11 and accelerated starting in 2012, when European foreign fighters started going to Syria in large numbers. We should not exaggerate its repressive character. Torture and other egregious practices aren’t on the table, and the hard measures have been accompanied by many soft programs to prevent and mitigate violent extremism. The hardening is also uneven, with France adopting a tougher approach than countries like Sweden. Still, the changes are substantial and amount to a paradigm shift in European counterterrorism. It’s still early, but the new approach appears to be working. There are fewer European jihadists fighting on foreign battlefields. Domestic attacks and casualties are substantially down in 2018—not because plotting has decreased, but because authorities are foiling more attempts. For the longer term, the main challenge will be preventing militants who come out of prison from regrouping.
Europe’s struggle with jihadism is far from over. The new, more muscular approach poses serious questions about civil liberties, minority rights and radicalization in prisons. But Europe can no longer be described as soft on terrorism.

Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-...guy-1538950931

[Bill Moore]

A Corbyn Government Would Be a Terrorist Threat to the Western World

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-...rorist-threat/

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The intense public discussion on anti-Semitism in the UK Labour party has almost entirely overshadowed the problem of the huge risk a Corbyn-led government would represent to the Western world. Corbyn, a terrorist sympathizer, and various problematic associates of his would gain access to intelligence gathered by the British security services. How safe would it then be for other Western countries to continue to share high-level intelligence with their British colleagues?

A Jewish Think Tank focused on informing Israeli leaders, so clearly bias may be a factor in this analysis. Furthermore, a long history of bad blood between Israel and UK. Nonetheless, like to hear what our friends from the UK think? Complete BS? Half truths?

[davidbfpo]

I have now read the article cited twice, whilst I understand his arguments he is clearly not a UK voter.

The furore over 'anti-Semitism in the UK Labour party' was largely an internal matter in the Labour Movement, with very little agreement and a "fudge" at the end. Before Jeremy Corbyn became the Labour Party leader the internal pro-Israeli lobby dominated; now their opponents are a significant minority and believe there is a substantial part of the electorate who support them. Those who do not support the Leader are either quiet or plan to leave. Others naively think the Leader will change "his spots" when Labour wins a General Election.

Foreign policy, with the exception of Brexit, is not an electoral priority and for this Labour Party winning the election comes first.

Yes many opponents of Jeremy C. have referred to his past support for terrorists and other "far left" causes. This "mud-slugging" has had little effect on the electorate so far. The details of intelligence sharing have been mentioned by a few. Jeremy's appeal is to a sizeable part of the electorate, a good number of whom think he is "new" and is actually a socialist - which the Labour Party wasn't. Polling suggests outside London and a few cities Jeremy's appeal is very limited, especially when so many 'traditional' Labour voters supported Brexit - an issue on which he'd prefer not to talk about.

Is Jeremy C. a 'terrorist threat to the Western World' as shared intelligence may no longer be safe. How much "raw" secret intelligence is actually given to senior ministers? It is difficult to see him following current UK national foreign and security policy. A more likely and significant step by Prime Minister Jeremy C. IMHO would be to end the patrolling of the UK's SSBNs. He has been a life-long advocate of nuclear disarmament after all.

Does that make him a 'terrorist threat to the Western World'? No, it does not. The "times are a changing" and he could be elected as Prime Minister. Somehow I doubt he shares the conventional 'establishment' view on the terrorist threat, let alone it's causes. President Trump actions have continued the slide in public support for the USA; I know the US Embassy here states this is not reflected in polling data.

He would be a threat to the usual Anglo-Israeli relationship, but that is not the 'Western World' as much as the author thinks it should be. An anti-Israel stance might actually gain him more votes in the big cities and ensure the non-Labour left work hard to support his election.

Anyway this is a strange question given the indications that President Trump reportedly neglects his communication security and the report he has already given away secret information on an Israeli operation against ISIS (which was subject of a post on a thread awhile back).

[Bill Moore]

True about President Trump not following communications security procedures, and neither did Secretary of State Clinton when she was Secretary. Her e-mail scandal was part of the equation that tipped the scales in favor of Trump. Two bad candidates for the office in my opinion, but we'll survive it. I was hoping you would tell me the article was complete rubbish, but instead it sounds like a bunch of half-truths, so a good propaganda piece. If Jeremy Corbyn wins we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

I'm half way through the book LikeWar by Singer and Brooking, and it provides a very detailed description of Russia's interference in our election, thought the Corbyn piece may more of the same. Unfortunately, the tactics of disinformation on social media are out of the bag and a lot of actors will be employing them. The truth will continued to be buried in a pile of deceit.

[davidbfpo]

A three part series of articles on the response to the prospect and reality of returning ISIS fighters, plus dependents, to Belgium, France and the UK by Eleanor Beevor (now at IISS, London).

She starts with Belgium:

It’s strange to think that at one point, Belgian authorities were actually happy to see a large number of young people abandon their European homeland for the battlefields of Syria. This was back in 2012, and many of those leaving had been irritants to Belgian police for their petty crime and anti-social behaviour. Their departure actually led to a drop in the crime rate. But soon, Belgium’s security forces realised that their loss of one problem would soon be replaced with a much greater one. Those young wannabe jihadists were far from guaranteed to stay in Syria. And fears began to proliferate of what they might do on Belgian soil when they returned.

Link:https://www.albawaba.com/news/how-be...part-i-1166898

Then the French report starts with:

In 2016, a highly controversial book was published featuring a series of interviews with the then-French President Francois Hollande. Hollande, a man of the Socialist left-wing party, let loose a number of unexpected soundbites.


But one that was met with particular shock abroad was his blunt admission that French intelligence services had “…a list of people who are believed to be responsible for hostage takings or acts against our interests”. If security forces located those individuals, he said, they had his permission to “…take revenge measures”. Those on the list were French citizens who had left to join ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

Link:https://www.albawaba.com/news/how-fr...art-ii-1167306

Finally to the UK, she starts with:

The words “The Beatles” have been splashed across the UK’s headlines for the past few days. But it is for a discomforting reason that has nothing to do with the British music legends.

The Beatles in question were a four-man group of young British men who travelled to Syria to join ISIS. And while 800 UK citizens left to join the terrorist group, none of the others received anything like the attention that this quartet did.

Link:https://www.albawaba.com/news/how-br...rt-iii-1167690

[AdamG]

Strasbourg, France (CNN)A massive hunt is underway for a gunman who opened fire near a popular Christmas market in the center of the French city of Strasbourg Tuesday, killing three people and injuring 13 others.

More than 350 police gendarmes and soldiers supported by air units have been mobilized to find the suspect, who was already known to security services as a possible threat, police said.
Speaking to French radio station Inter on Wednesday, the county's Deputy Interior Minister, Laurent Nunez, said that authorities could not confirm that the suspect has "terrorist motivations."

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/11/europ...ntl/index.html

France says it cannot "rule out" that a suspected terrorist has fled to neighbouring Germany after killing at least two people and injuring 13 in the eastern French city of Strasbourg.

Border controls have been strengthened and more than 600 people, including police, troops and helicopters were on the heels of the attacker who had "sowed terror" in the city, interior minister Christophe Castaner said.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...t-run-killing/

[davidbfpo]

A two-part Q&A with Norwegian SME Peter Nesser, who makes an important point at the start:

We need to include the foiled attacks to gain a better understanding of the threat. If we only look at launched attacks, we risk being unprepared to face tomorrow’s threat.
(Later) If we take a look at the foiled plots in 2018 alone, there is no doubt that IS supporters have had ambitions to carry out large-scale attacks in Europe.

Link:https://eeradicalization.com/a-conve...nesser-part-1/

In part two:

I expect the threat in the near future to continue along the same lines, but with more stealth and new uses of technology.(On returning foreign fighters) Only a minority among those who return will probably take part in international terrorism in the future, but those who do can be capable of doing a lot of damage.

Link:https://eeradicalization.com/a-conve...-plots-part-2/