Armenia, Azerbaijan & Nagorno-Karabakh

[Fuchs]

Both states have an unresolved conflict (Nagorno-Karabakh) that doesn't seem to attract decisive international mediation/moderation efforts.

Azerbaijan is (judging by superficial info such as budget and personnel) likely militarily superior and this asymmetry is likely to become more extreme.

Armenia's economy is suffering due tot he poor relations with its neighbours Turkey and Azerbaijan, its difficult geographical situation, the lingering conflict.
Azerbaijan otherwise has easily available revenues from oil exports.


I've heard and read rumour that the conflict could soon become hot again.

Examples include European delegation members returning from Baku and recounting war rhetoric not unlike what was heard a few weeks before Georgia tried to gain control of South Ossetia.



I assume it's worth the effort and time to keep an eye on this. Maybe others can contribute to this thread with info that's beyond google's reach?

[Jedburgh]

MICROCON, 11 June 2010: Engaging Civil Society in the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict: What Role for the EU and its Neighbourhood Policy?

The conflict over Nagorno Karabakh, opposing Armenia and Azerbaijan, is the longest conflict in the OSCE area and a fundamental security threat to the South Caucasus and surrounding regions, preventing full and inclusive economic development and constraining regional relations. This chapter takes the ENP as a conflict transformation tool and looks at how the EU has used this initiative to reach civil society organisations (CSOs) and improve their performance as peace-builders in this protracted conflict. Building on the theoretical framework presented by Tocci (2008), the chapter assesses EU involvement in the civil society domain, mapping the types of organisations privileged by the EU and the potential impact of their activities on the conflict. It puts forward relevant arguments regarding the suitability of the EU’s goals and instruments to the dynamics on the ground and concludes with a categorisation of the EU’s approach according to three hypotheses: The Liberal Peace, the Leftist Critique and the Realist hypothesis. It is argues that work with civil society is a crucial part of the EU’s approach, despite the difficulties of making such engagement a central part of its peace-building and conflict transformation activities.

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 8 Feb 11: Armenia and Azerbaijan: Preventing War

An arms race, escalating front-line clashes, vitriolic war rhetoric and a virtual breakdown in peace talks are increasing the chance Armenia and Azerbaijan will go back to war over Nagorno-Karabakh. Preventing this is urgent. Increased military capabilities on both sides would make a new armed conflict in the South Caucasus far more deadly than the 1992-1994 one that ended with a shaky truce. Neither side would be likely to win easily or quickly. Regional alliances could pull in Russia, Turkey and Iran. Vital oil and gas pipelines near the front lines would be threatened, as would the cooperation between Russia and Turkey that is central to regional stability. Another refugee crisis would be likely.....