Armenia, Azerbaijan & Nagorno-Karabakh

[AdamG]

Footage recorded by Sputnik Armenia shows heavy armor moving in a column along the streets of Stepanakert, the capital and the largest city of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh republic, amid the recent escalation in the region.

The situation around Nagorno-Karabakh sharply deteriorated overnight, with
Azerbaijan and Armenia accused each other of starting the fighting.

Video here
https://www.rt.com/news/338136-heavy...orno-karabakh/

Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for an end to fighting after clashes broke out in the disputed Caucasus region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan said 12 of its soldiers had been killed and a helicopter shot down. TV pictures showed a burned out vehicle and craters after gunfire and shelling.

Nagorno-Karabakh has been in the hands of ethnic Armenian separatists since a war that ended in 1994.reports of gun and mortar fire coming from the border with Azerbaijan. Armenia and Azerbaijan accuse each other of provoking the escalation.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35949991

[davidbfpo]

What is curious is why this long running dispute, a "frozen" matter since 1994, ignited now.

[AdamG]

Energy-rich Azerbaijan, whose military spending has exceeded Armenia’s entire state budget, has repeatedly threatened to take back the breakaway region by force if negotiations fail to yield results. Moscow-backed Armenia says it could crush any offensive.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News...rontline-.html


More
http://armenpress.am/eng/news/841888...nding-one.html

http://armenpress.am/eng/news/841783...ince-1994.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian non linear warfare hard at work and the West does not see it......

Fifth proxy front for Putins Russia. The west is an ostrich w head in sand.

Russia has been stoking conflict between Armenia & Azerbaijan and now Putin calls for ceasefire. His typical pattern of "help" in ex-USSR.

What a coincidence that the same moment EU pipeline is approved, Russian-backed Armenian troops attack Azerbaijan.

What a coincidence Kerry was in Azerbeijan the other day. Did he approve the attack?

Very strange resumption of conflict. Maybe the reason - to prevent a new gas pipeline ?

Map shows conflict spots in post-#Soviet area (+ #Syria), Putin trying to heat up to crash states & restore #USSR

[OUTLAW 09]

Dangerous turn in Russia/Turkey rivalry: Karabakh fighting escalates via @oijcbrown
http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/198592.aspx …

[OUTLAW 09]

Turkey to back Azerbaijan 'to the end' in Karabakh conflict
http://caucasus.liveuamap.com/en/201...nd-in-karabakh …

A conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh will by definition be a proxy war between Russia and Turkey.

If things go awry in Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia can test the equivalent of NATO's article 5 in CSTO treaty.

CSTO chief: Escalation in Karabakh may lead to large-scale conflict
http://caucasus.liveuamap.com/en/2016/3-apri

[OUTLAW 09]

This is in fact a major de facto Russia Turkey proxy war....

Breaking : #Turkey, #Pakistan and #Belarus have offered military assistance to #Azerbaijan -
http://m.haqqin.az/news/67233

Next we will hear Article 5 of the CSTO has been triggered and the Russian military is entering the fighting......

[OUTLAW 09]

Welcome to the new, not-really-new front in the war, not-really-war between Russia and Turkey, not-really-just-Turkey.

[davidbfpo]

A good backgrounder on this dispute and the cold, now hot war:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35954969

[OUTLAW 09]

Are we heading for a flare-up between #Russia and #Georgia in #SouthOssetia as well?
https://twitter.com/tassagency_en/st...06928526893056 …

Russian Army TV headline: "South Ossetia has found a way to join Russia"
https://twitter.com/zvezdanews/statu...08516347740161 …

BREAKING: #Azerbaijan says it is prepared to attack #Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno #Karabakh, if fighting continues - Reuters

Drone footage allegedly shows an Azeri strike on an Armenian position in #NagornoKarabakh - @JohnArterbury
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=st6bshQjtPU …

MORE: #Azerbaijan's military claims to have used TOS-1 'Heavy Flamethrower System' in combat in #NagornoKarabakh.
http://az.azeridefence.com/azerbayca...ini-ise-saldi/ …

Armenia Warns Of ‘Full-Scale War’ (2 hrs ago)
http://www.azatutyun.mobi/a/27653685.html

Air Force Freak ‎@AlRFORCEFREAK
#RUAF Il-76 78815 Gvardeyskoye, Crimea -Pskov

Russian-supervised saboteurs plotted bombings in three Ukrainian regions, - Donetsk Pol
http://24today.net/open/649235

[OUTLAW 09]

If fighting continues Azerbaijani rocket&artillery troops ordered to inflict devastating blows to Stepanakert&other occupied cities

[OUTLAW 09]

Putin intoxicated by his war cult presses for "referendum" in S.Ossetia
https://twitter.com/ukrainik/status/701268368012083200 …
& war in #Karabakh
https://twitter.com/GorseFires/statu...14821020033024 …

Breaking: Fighting now at the #Armenia-#Azerbaijan border in the #Tavush region.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia`s #Putin’s mysterious moving border
http://www.politico.stfi.re/article/...der/?sf=lknzbg …

Another Russian proxy war this time focusing on Turkey........
Turkey President #Erdogan: "#Karabakh will surely be returned to its rightful owner #Azerbaijan one day."

An apparent Azerbaijani drone buzzing near RT correspondent.
pic.twitter.com/pPJwfzXXHV
http://twitter.com/MuradoR
BUT WAIT he was just in Palmyra........SO just how did he know to hussle back to Russia to be here now????????

From same RT reporter......
Armenia artillery position minutes before Azerbaijan shells fall
pic.twitter.com/wyAo2TgIE5 http://twitter.com/MuradoRT/status/7...124097/video/1 …
http://caucasus.liveuamap.com/en/201...ore-azerbaijan …

Unconfirmed #Azerbaijan use of #Israel Harop #UCAV/loiter munition
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmHCQg5sveA …

[davidbfpo]

I was struck by the usual map the BBC uses which shows Nagorno-Karabakh being an enclave within Azerbaijan, which suggests vulnerability.
Link and a useful update too:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35964213



Then elsewhere I read that the 'frozen' war actually meant Armenia took considerable territory so the enclave was not surrounded.
Link and again a useful commentary:https://theconversation.com/how-war-in-nagorno-karabakh-could-spread-and-become-a-major-problem-for-europe-57241?

[OUTLAW 09]

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is too dangerous for both EU and U.S. to ignore >>>
@BryzaMatthew https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...6c5_story.html …

[davidbfpo]

The first shows the terrain and the road that links Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh, albeit from one position:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35967341

The second is interesting, the BBC's explanation:

A BBC team visited one of the artillery positions of the Karabakh Army and spoke to the soldiers there

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36019192

I noted the sleeping quarters are a concrete bunker; the connecting trenches to the artillery positions are very wide and have timber revetments. The artillery - not sure what type - are in freshly dug positions. One soldier says they had only been there a day before being shelled, so I expect the artillery were moved in as the crisis developed.

[davidbfpo]

A non-military article 'What the people of Nagorno-Karabakh think about the future of their homeland' drawing upon a 2013 opinion poll in Nagorno-Karabakh, which provides much of the context. Even if the map shown fails to show the full extent of Azerbaijan's lost territory.
Link:https://theconversation.com/what-the-people-of-nagorno-karabakh-think-about-the-future-of-their-homeland-57535?

[OUTLAW 09]

There has been an exchange of artillery and tank fire between #Azerbaijan and #Karabakh forces during last night.

[AdamG]

Armenia and Azerbaijan, technically at war over the Nagorno-Karabakh region despite a cease-fire brokered by Russia 22 years ago, are beefing up their arsenals just seven months after the worst fighting in two decades. Armenia has acquired Russian-made Iskander ballistic missiles, while Azerbaijan says it's tested combat drones produced with Israel and is in talks with Pakistan to buy high-tech weapons.
"We have a much more serious arms race," said Zaur Shiriyev, an academy associate at Chatham House in London. "It will significantly increase the chance of future outbreaks."
The rearmament is raising the stakes should tensions flare again between Russian ally Armenia and Azerbaijan, close to NATO member Turkey, after the two neighbors spent almost $27 billion on defense in 2005-2015. The conflict, within striking distance of a BP Plc-led oil pipeline, is once more showing signs of boiling over as talks mediated by Russia and the U.S. run aground and uncertainty mounts after Donald Trump's election as American president.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/s...114-story.html