Taming Pakistan: Modi Effect

[MoorthyM]

Cited in small part:

I am not sure what would come from the West acting together to help the incoming, new Indian government - assuming they could act together. Yes there are some simple steps that can be done, although I am unconvinced they actually could undermine him. See this for a US viewpoint:http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed...519-story.html

From my faraway "armchair" the reported growth of Islamization seems tame alongside India's own 'small wars', none of which to my knowledge are realted to Islamization - if one excludes Kashmir. See:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=2248

Public statements by Western high officials about the need to focus away from Mr. Modi's purported acts or in acts in 2002 Gujarat riots and directives to the State Dept. etc to do the same are among the things that should help.

The current metrics that are being used to characterize the onset of the so-called Islamization process are hardly robust IMO. And hence, what conventional wisdom says in this context needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

As I have shown in my forthcoming work, sharia's popularity is probably by far the most appropriate metric. By this measure growth of radicalism in India is not tame at all. It is a juggernaut trending toward formation and sustaining of Islamist militant group all over India.

[carl]

Moorthy:

When you say Mr. Modi's gov will actively work to defang Pakistan, how do you think they will go about doing that?

It is something that must be done, probably the sooner the better, but it will be tricky.

[Dayuhan]

Public statements by Western high officials about the need to focus away from Mr. Modi's purported acts or in acts in 2002 Gujarat riots and directives to the State Dept. etc to do the same are among the things that should help.

That should help what?

Mr Modi himself could make that process easier by making clear, unequivocal statements to the effect that his government is committed to providing equal protection to all citizens, and that violence against minorities or majorities would absolutely not be tolerated. Of course such statements would have to be backed up with action to mean anything, but statements would be a start.

Expecting other countries to "focus away from Mr. Modi's purported acts or in acts in 2002 Gujarat riots" in the absence of any such effort from Mr Modi would be to effectively ask them to condone mass murder. The world should not pretend that Gujarat didn't happen, any more than they should pretend that Mumbai didn't happen.

As I have shown in my forthcoming work

Bit of confusion in the tenses there. "Have shown" is past, "forthcoming" is future. It's one or the other, not both.

...sharia's popularity is probably by far the most appropriate metric. By this measure growth of radicalism in India is not tame at all. It is a juggernaut trending toward formation and sustaining of Islamist militant group all over India.

Impossible to comment without seeing the work. Would you care to summarize the evidence, arguments, and recommendations?

Just to be clear: I do not think Indians should care what the US thinks, or submit policies for US review. I also do not think the Indians should expect automatic support for their policies or leaders from the US or any Western power.

[MoorthyM]

That should help what?

Mr Modi himself could make that process easier by making clear, unequivocal statements to the effect that his government is committed to providing equal protection to all citizens, and that violence against minorities or majorities would absolutely not be tolerated. Of course such statements would have to be backed up with action to mean anything, but statements would be a start.

Expecting other countries to "focus away from Mr. Modi's purported acts or in acts in 2002 Gujarat riots" in the absence of any such effort from Mr Modi would be to effectively ask them to condone mass murder. The world should not pretend that Gujarat didn't happen, any more than they should pretend that Mumbai didn't happen.

Bit of confusion in the tenses there. "Have shown" is past, "forthcoming" is future. It's one or the other, not both.

Impossible to comment without seeing the work. Would you care to summarize the evidence, arguments, and recommendations?

Just to be clear: I do not think Indians should care what the US thinks, or submit policies for US review. I also do not think the Indians should expect automatic support for their policies or leaders from the US or any Western power.

I couldn't agree more with just about everything you said.

If I were Mr. Modi, I would put it along these lines: Any form of ideological indoctrination that discourages citizens from embracing modern education and incites them into taking law into their won hands and trying to unlawfully enforce/impose rules on an ideological basis will not be tolerated, as are violence acts against all citizens.

I will just list the abstract of my upcoming scholarship:

Many militant groups around the world are purportedly fighting to institute sharia as the governing law of Muslims. However, very few scholars have studied the relationship between sharia and violence, presumably because the former is largely viewed as dealing with internal governance issues. This perspective has likely led to the West’s policy of accommodating political and community groups that seek to promote sharia. In this paper, I argue that public surveys in Muslim communities are ill-prepared to identify the potential links between sharia and violence, especially when the majority of poll respondents identify themselves as peace-loving Muslims who perceive sharia as divine law. Moreover, I identify a radicalized subpopulation of jihadist clerics that benefit from sharia’s popularity. Empirical data is presented regarding the growth of clerical power in Pakistan and elsewhere, aided in part by this popularity, which the clerics themselves have helped to nurture. In particular, the analysis suggests that jihadist clerics and militant groups leverage sharia’s esteem in order to advance a violent agenda.

[MoorthyM]

If I were Mr. Modi, I would put it along these lines: Any form of ideological indoctrination that discourages citizens from embracing modern education and incites them into taking law into their won hands and trying to unlawfully enforce/impose rules on an ideological basis will not be tolerated, as are violence acts against all citizens.

The key really is not to let the problem get to this stage, and since it has, understand its ideological basis, and neutralize it at that level. This because the above rhetoric in reality is hardly enforceable, when it has become systemic, like radical Islam has become in India and in many places.

[Ray]

How Modi defeated liberals like me

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead...?homepage=true

An interesting commentary that churns the Indian mindset.

The writer is a known Modi basher.

[Dayuhan]

If I were Mr. Modi, I would put it along these lines: Any form of ideological indoctrination that discourages citizens from embracing modern education and incites them into taking law into their won hands and trying to unlawfully enforce/impose rules on an ideological basis will not be tolerated, as are violence acts against all citizens.

Are the freedoms of speech and religion constitutionally guaranteed in India? Efforts to suppress "ideological indoctrination" might run afoul if they are... certainly they would in the US, but India is of course a very different place. While recognizing the impact of indoctrination, I'd be uncomfortable with any effort to treat indoctrination as the equivalent of actual violence if that were proposed in my own neighborhood.

I will just list the abstract of my upcoming scholarship:

Many militant groups around the world are purportedly fighting to institute sharia as the governing law of Muslims. However, very few scholars have studied the relationship between sharia and violence, presumably because the former is largely viewed as dealing with internal governance issues. This perspective has likely led to the West’s policy of accommodating political and community groups that seek to promote sharia. In this paper, I argue that public surveys in Muslim communities are ill-prepared to identify the potential links between sharia and violence, especially when the majority of poll respondents identify themselves as peace-loving Muslims who perceive sharia as divine law. Moreover, I identify a radicalized subpopulation of jihadist clerics that benefit from sharia’s popularity. Empirical data is presented regarding the growth of clerical power in Pakistan and elsewhere, aided in part by this popularity, which the clerics themselves have helped to nurture. In particular, the analysis suggests that jihadist clerics and militant groups leverage sharia’s esteem in order to advance a violent agenda.

Interesting, but again difficult to comment without seeing the actual work. Do you intend to publish it?

The key really is not to let the problem get to this stage, and since it has, understand its ideological basis, and neutralize it at that level.

The big question, of course, is how does one neutralize the ideological basis?

It's not an easy thing to do. Generations of effort to neutralize the Communist ideology, ranging from "winning hearts and minds" to mass murder, accomplished very little: the Communist ideology eventually neutralized itself through its own abject failure to deliver on its promises. How does one "neutralize" the Islamist ideology?

[Dayuhan]

Discussion of Modi and of India in Foreign Affairs:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...5YWhvby5jb20S1

This one is subscriber only but some here may have access:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...5YWhvby5jb20S1

Useful mostly as an indication of perceptions among the US foreign policy elite, for whatever that's worth.

At this point of course all is speculative: Modi will have to develop and implement actual policies toward Pakistan, toward the Muslim minority, and (most important) to deal with economic and other core domestic issues. It will not be possible to evaluate what he's doing until we see what those policies are and how they are being implemented. All of them are complicated and intractable problems.

[davidbfpo]

By a ret'd Indian intelligence officer:

It is gratifying that Prime Minister-elect Narendra Modi's first meeting with bureaucrats was with Home Secretary Anil Goswami on 19 May, if press reports are correct. He also met former Intelligence Bureau chief Ajit Doval. This indicates the importance he attaches to internal security despite some "strategic community" fabulists attempting to distract him with foreign issues.

Our internal security problems need immediate attention. No one has paid any attention to it since 1947 except for setting up some institutions that have not performed. As a result, we have growing communalism, a serious ethnic strife in the Northeast, rising domestic religious insurgency and persisting Leftist militancy, while our preventive security machinery shows its inability to anticipate and deal with such situations.

Link:http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analy...odis-attention

[MoorthyM]

By a ret'd Indian intelligence officer:

Link:http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analy...odis-attention

Indeed. Any attempt to "Modi"fy Pakistan has to first start with neutering Pakistan-Saudi axis' attempts to create multiple Pakistans within India itself.

As discussed (and now confirmed in this article) in my book Defeating Political Islam, this Islamization project has blossomed virtually unchecked for several decades now.

[Ray]

A short commentary by IISS's South Asia expert, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury and here are two passages:



Link:https://www.iiss.org/en/iiss%20voice...-campaign-5e65

By a ret'd Indian intelligence officer:

Link:http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analy...odis-attention

The strife in the NE is confined to the Bodoland issue with the Muslim minority, the large part having migrated illegally from Bangladesh.

Illegal immigration remains a grey area

The 2012 violence was variously described as having begun over the Bodos' destruction of a mosque or an under-construction mosque in Kokrajhar or as having begun after the killing of some BLT men by Muslims. Either way, public perception was largely that the skewed demographics of Assam, owing mainly to the continuing illegal immigration from Bangladesh -- the Bengali-speaking "settlers" are also called "Bangladeshis" -- were at the root of the ethnic violence. The immigration issue is an important factor, with Bodos believing that the Muslim settlers support illegal immigrants who continue to arrive through the riverine areas. There have also been reports of rampant encroachment of state-owned forest land by Muslim encroachers.

http://www.firstpost.com/india/assam...t-1507865.html