Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[OUTLAW 09]

Does anyone know why the Iraqi military didn't resist? Maliki claims it was a conspiracy, and in this case that makes sense, but who were the conspirators and why?

Wild spectulating on my part.

- this ties into the Arab coalition trying to oust Assad. Supposedly Maliki has been helping Assad with his Iranian buddies.

- a state actor out of the region enabled ISIS and paid off Iraqi military leaders to not resist to put Iraqi oil at risk to strengthen their position in the global market, which makes boycotting them impractical.

I have absolutely no supporting evidence for either hypothesis, but for the better equipped and trained Iraqi army to just drop weapons and flee due to a irregular force advance doesn't add up.

Bill---here is my theory---conspiracy doubt it---the Malaki army units based in the Sunni heartland have been always Shia units and there have been increasing massive complaints by the Snni locals that they have been acting like an occupation army--bribes, corruption, indiscriminate arrests for release money, targeted killings---exactly what the US Army saw repeatedly from the new Iraqi army but we looked the other way again a COIN thing.

The attacks by ISIS were of the swarming nature which is something we also saw in especially Diyala and the Sunni heartland and they were extremely successful even against say the 1st Cav in Baqubah.

In fact swarming attacks are extremely effective if carried out by aggressive small units---in Tirkit the attacks came from all directions at the same time, were violent and fast--the Iraqi army trained in the US fashion was simply not prepared for it---and ISIS then uses violence to hype the attack meaning the instant killing of prisoners or execution style killing to ramp up the psywar effects of the attacks.

There is something in the manner and fashion of these attacks that smacks of military training and field leadership---thus my comments back to al Duri and the Military Council and yes he did work often in the past with AQI.

So if one is viewed by the population to be an occupation army, and you are Shia do you fight and die defending Sunnis or simply flee and live for another day---you still will be paid whether you fight or not is the current motto of the Iraqi army. There is massive corruption and theft in the current Iraqi army and ghost units where higher officers collect the pay for the entire ghost unit etc.

So in effect they had become a hallow army---looks great in parading falls apart when attacked.

AQI has always pushed the ethnic conflict---the question is can al Duri and the Sunni tribes control ISIS--I think they can as they fight just as well as does ISIS and they are defending their heartland.

There was always chatter that KSA was funneling monies to al Duri and the Islamic Army in Iraq which I and others believed to be true as we traced 100 USD bills first to money washers in the Kuwait City Gold Market area and then on to the KSA.

The RSA has been at war with Iran in Syria and getting the foreign Shia fighters to pull back into Iraq which was done and creating a second front to keep Iran engaged in is a smart move whoever is behind it. It also places Iraqi oil fields in danger thus the oil jumping to 111 USDs yesterday so the ME oil producers are earning a little extra and that is always good for them. Now rearmed with heavy weapons and 114s/MRAPs and AAA and artillery and heavy combat experience and far fewer foreign Shia fighters---there will be new developments coming out of Syria in the coming months. Remember they also released 4500 Sunni prisoners for an extra fighting boost.

The wild card are the Turks now that ISIS originally their ally has actually taken Turk prisoners (48). The Kurds will push back into the "disputed areas" where they have always wanted to push the green line to nothing new there put to go to open warfare with ISIS-doubt it.

We need to stay of this fray as anything we do right now will be viewed by the Sunni to be proof of our open ended support for Malaki and the Shia and in the end if we assist we still will have no long term influence.

Bill---there is though a second option the KSA and Russian private deal meaning we hold your oil/gas prices high in exchange for dropping Assad fell through again privately---just maybe the KSA released the dogs of war to both rearm the Syrian fighters when the West did not and to send a hello back to Russia.---just a thought.