Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[JWing]

Carl not so long ago there was a similar theory about Catholics. It was said that because they followed the Pope who is like a king Catholics could not become democrats. This was once used in a theory to explain why there were so many dictatorships in Latin America. The argument went that because they were Catholics they always gravitated towards a Jefe, strongman because they followed the Pope. In fact that was also an argument against the election of John Kennedy. There was a political cartoon against him that said if elected there would be a tunnel from the White House to Vatican City and Kennedy would be taking direct orders from the Pope.

[JWing]

Iraqi forces retook Baiji in Salahaddin. Early reports that the refinery and power station outside the city being taken were incorrect. Baghdad has sent special forces towards Mosul. Tikrit was taken by ISIS, attempt to re-take it by ISF failed. ISIS launched another assault upon Samarra in Salahaddin but were repulsed. Peshmerga has deployed outside of Mosul, moved into some of the disputed territories in Diyala and occupied Kirkuk city. Yesterday was the first time there were reports in the Iraqi press that the ISF was fighting back.

Also don't forget that there is massive militia mobilization and Iran is moving into Iraq big time.

[jcustis]

The reason for the comment is as follows---if one takes the view that yes the US military implemented as correctly as they could the tenets of COIN in the host country Iraq as per say and we can argue about it all day-- as per the FM.

I apologize if you thought I was referring to you about fixing blame. I was thinking out loud about the pundits, partisans, and tinfoil hat kooks.

[OUTLAW 09]

I apologize if you thought I was referring to you about fixing blame. I was thinking out loud about the pundits, partisans, and tinfoil hat kooks.

Took no offense my only concern is that the Army has gotten so wrapped up in the COIN debate they lost sight of really what is going on in such environments ie Iraq and Syria. The discussion of COIN failure is extremely important but more important is the discussion of a national UW and counter UW strategy as the next 20 years will be about UW as it is the center piece of both the new Russian and Chinese strategies. COIN died in Iraq and although it died--it was attempted to "win" with it in AFG because no debate concerning failure took place.

If one looks at the WH decision to not support the more "moderate" of the Islamists in Syria with heavier weapons in order to effectively counter Assad as well as ISIS--in hindsight this was a massive mistake and Syria was lost as well as the Sunni triangle.

Secondly, there is an interesting link that ISIS has been treated far "differently" by Assad forces than the other Islamist groups---and this might in fact be correct if one looks at the history of AQI and other Sunni groups selling HME to the JAM/SG/Mahdi groups and AQI purchasing EFPs from JAM/SGs. If one remembers the introduction of the Russian hand held and thrown RGP 3 anti tank grenade in about 2006/2207 that caused a lot of damage--it was initially introduced by AQI then transferred to the IAI ---all indicators initially pointed to it coming into Iraq via Iranian smugglers.

And then the recent reporting of how Iran protected and moved AQ personnel in and through Iran in order to fight against the US in Iraq.

I do know from first hand debriefs that IAI did not like AQI protecting Iranian SF agents that did come and go as early as 2005 into Iraq and were protected by AQI.

[OUTLAW 09]

Took no offense my only concern is that the Army has gotten so wrapped up in the COIN debate they lost sight of really what is going on in such environments ie Iraq and Syria. The discussion of COIN failure is extremely important but more important is the discussion of a national UW and counter UW strategy as the next 20 years will be about UW as it is the center piece of both the new Russian and Chinese strategies. COIN died in Iraq and although it died--it was attempted to "win" with it in AFG because no debate concerning failure took place.

If one looks at the WH decision to not support the more "moderate" of the Islamists in Syria with heavier weapons in order to effectively counter Assad as well as ISIS--in hindsight this was a massive mistake and Syria was lost as well as the Sunni triangle.

Secondly, there is an interesting link that ISIS has been treated far "differently" by Assad forces than the other Islamist groups---and this might in fact be correct if one looks at the history of AQI and other Sunni groups selling HME to the JAM/SG/Mahdi groups and AQI purchasing EFPs from JAM/SGs. If one remembers the introduction of the Russian hand held and thrown RGP 3 anti tank grenade in about 2006/2207 that caused a lot of damage--it was initially introduced by AQI then transferred to the IAI ---all indicators initially pointed to it coming into Iraq via Iranian smugglers.

And then the recent reporting of how Iran protected and moved AQ personnel in and through Iran in order to fight against the US in Iraq.

I do know from first hand debriefs that IAI did not like AQI protecting Iranian SF agents that did come and go as early as 2005 into Iraq and were protected by AQI.

Reference AQI in Iran---this was from a CSIS Jun 2011 AQI study.

Following the 2001 U.S. airstrikes in Afghanistan, Zarqawi led his men—now under the banner of al-Tawhid wal-Jihad (TwJ)—out of Afghanistan to set up camp in Iran.16 Arrests of Europe-based TwJ operatives in early 2002 alerted Western authorities to Zarqawi’s presence in Iran, forcing him to leave and establish new smuggling routes through Syria.

So AQI was not some unknown item in Syria after 2002 and especially their rat runs from 2004 onwards.

[OUTLAW 09]

I had monitored this particular jihadi information site from 2006 through to 2011 and I had assumed that they had gone out of business.

They are not out of business as I had wrongly assumed.

The Facebook link has a large number of current videos coming out of the Iraqi jihadi side.

Definitely monitored from US agencies and the chat side is extremely active.

http://www.hanein.info/vb/index.php
https://www.facebook.com/Iraqe.Revolution
https://www.facebook.com/Iraqe.Revolution/videos

[OUTLAW 09]

I have been wondering just where the Islamic Army of Iraq had disappeared to after their final victory video was released a few days after we cleared the Kuwait border.

Then in the Mosul victory pdf (ISN) yesterday that was released by ISIS I noticed a rocket launcher being fired that was designed in early 2005 by the IAI and used by Ansar al Sunnah to fire the air to ground rocket CK5 in a March 2005 attack against the Iraqi Army headquarters in Baqubah. At that time IAI controlled over 6K C5Ks taken from a Black RG base near Baqubah in 2003 and no one had any idea how to fire them by hand since they used they were for helicopters.

The first firing of this launcher I happen to still have on video--that is why the picture caught my attention as it was not ever really used by AQI.

The hanein.info website was traditionally throughout the war a key IAI and related groups information site.

Then this was found on the Facebook page---here is the IAI in their new configuration and they definitely are working together with ISIS so it is a joint venture in Mosul much as they worked together in the 2006-2010 period regardless of "political/religious" differences. The videos posted on this link have definitely the look and feel of previous IAI videos and they do not carry the black banner of ISIS much like the 2006-2010 period.

Now the question is if the former IAI is in play and they have the deep links to the Sunni tribes---is ISIS really after control of Iraq or weapons for the fight they see between the Sunni/Shia and that is in Syria?

General Council of the Iraqi Revolutionaries

https://www.facebook.com/gmcir1 Check the number of likes 35K

[carl]

Iraqi forces retook Baiji in Salahaddin. Early reports that the refinery and power station outside the city being taken were incorrect. Baghdad has sent special forces towards Mosul. Tikrit was taken by ISIS, attempt to re-take it by ISF failed. ISIS launched another assault upon Samarra in Salahaddin but were repulsed. Peshmerga has deployed outside of Mosul, moved into some of the disputed territories in Diyala and occupied Kirkuk city. Yesterday was the first time there were reports in the Iraqi press that the ISF was fighting back.

Also don't forget that there is massive militia mobilization and Iran is moving into Iraq big time.

Joel:

What is the short term capability of ISIS to take heavy casualties? They seem to be suffering some significant losses when the ISF actually stands and fights. This is important I think because from what I've read it seems the dramatic losses of cities of late have been because of morale collapse caused by lousy leadership, so the run of luck ISIS has been having may not last...and the Iranians are coming.

I remember with sadness how many Iraqis didn't want us to leave because they were afraid that just this kind of thing would happen. But there was an election coming up here and a talking point had to be carved in stone.

[ganulv]

I remember with sadness how many Iraqis didn't want us to leave because they were afraid that just this kind of thing would happen. But there was an election coming up here and a talking point had to be carved in stone.

If I recall correctly, the plan to leave a so-called residual force hinged on delicate Status Of Forces Agreement negotiations that ended up being handled less than delicately on both sides.

[JWing]

Was another ISF collapse in Anbar today. Followed by reports of heaving fighting in Abu Ghraib. People with relatives in Baghdad have talked about militias being out in the streets and mobilizing. Two press reports that Iran has sent in special forces and weapons to Iraq. Shiite militias from Syria have been shifted back to Iraq several weeks ago.

[OUTLAW 09]

Was another ISF collapse in Anbar today. Followed by reports of heaving fighting in Abu Ghraib. People with relatives in Baghdad have talked about militias being out in the streets and mobilizing. Two press reports that Iran has sent in special forces and weapons to Iraq. Shiite militias from Syria have been shifted back to Iraq several weeks ago.

JWing---now you point to something that is extremely interesting--is ISIS really after Baghdad or is it a feint in order to do exactly what you mention.

In Syria it has been Hezbollah and Iranian SF together with JAM/SG units that have been the backbone of the Assad Army.

By forcing the Hezbollah, Iran and JAM/SG to reposition away serves ISIS on the Syrian battlefield--notice ISIS was/is more interested in holding Syrian territory and avoid directly confronting the SA as the other Islamists have been doing. Syria is to them the epicenter for the final Shia/Sunni clash.

From battle videos coming out---massive amounts of equipment especially artillery, HMMW 114s, AAA, and trucks and the older MRAPs were driven immediately towards Syria---the rest were burned. Why burn when you can use them for the march to Baghdad and there is street to street MOUT. The ISIS really love their utilities. With one "surge" they have completely rearmed and refitted without outside help and beholden to no one-impressive.

In attempting to hold Baghdad they awake a far larger majority ie the entire Shia nation and regardless how aggressive they are the sheer Shia numbers will eventually overwhelm ---IMO they really want the Sunni triangle and the oil resources there which have been at the heart of the Sunni population complaints since 2010.

That is why I say IAI is back in action as they were always military focused due to a high number of former officers and Iraqi security officers and their close ties to the Sunni tribes which you are correct about---the tribes have walked away from the "Awakening" as in the end it was a fail move on their part years ago-it brought them nothing from Malaki but it did bring grief to their leaders.

What really interests me is the ISIS use of aggressive fast moving swarming attacks in ways that they initially showed us in the late 2000s which were small small--by the way those attacks were always a joint IAI/AQI attack--this is solid battlefield tactical movements that we the US Army probably could not today even come close to doing---that type of attack formation hit the 1st Cav hard in Diyala 2006/2007.

This is reforming the ME literally overnight and our foreign policy in the area is now totally in tatters as we somehow never seem to think long term and we shy away from even coming close to moderate Islamists of which there a few that would talk to us. We need to finally understand that populations will make their own decisions about their futures and sometimes it is not in our direction but that is OK if we can at least talk with them long term.

What we are really seeing is now a Mao phase three guerrilla war using mobile formations on the go and taking no prisoners along the way---notice that they are maintaining fluidity and movement--Mao would be proud and Che would be envious.

[ganulv]

What we are really seeing is now a Mao phase three guerrilla war using mobile formations on the go and taking no prisoners along the way---notice that they are maintaining fluidity and movement--Mao would be proud and Che would be envious.

The Maoists and the m267 movement had already built the bones of a legitimate government over the course of the previous years and that was there for them when they seized control of the state. Even if ISIS were able to take Baghdad, is there any indication that they have done something similar? They seem to have set up some sort of bureaucracy in the areas under their control, but is there evidence that the local residents have bought what they are selling?