Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[OUTLAW 09]

Was another ISF collapse in Anbar today. Followed by reports of heaving fighting in Abu Ghraib. People with relatives in Baghdad have talked about militias being out in the streets and mobilizing. Two press reports that Iran has sent in special forces and weapons to Iraq. Shiite militias from Syria have been shifted back to Iraq several weeks ago.

JWing---now you point to something that is extremely interesting--is ISIS really after Baghdad or is it a feint in order to do exactly what you mention.

In Syria it has been Hezbollah and Iranian SF together with JAM/SG units that have been the backbone of the Assad Army.

By forcing the Hezbollah, Iran and JAM/SG to reposition away serves ISIS on the Syrian battlefield--notice ISIS was/is more interested in holding Syrian territory and avoid directly confronting the SA as the other Islamists have been doing. Syria is to them the epicenter for the final Shia/Sunni clash.

From battle videos coming out---massive amounts of equipment especially artillery, HMMW 114s, AAA, and trucks and the older MRAPs were driven immediately towards Syria---the rest were burned. Why burn when you can use them for the march to Baghdad and there is street to street MOUT. The ISIS really love their utilities. With one "surge" they have completely rearmed and refitted without outside help and beholden to no one-impressive.

In attempting to hold Baghdad they awake a far larger majority ie the entire Shia nation and regardless how aggressive they are the sheer Shia numbers will eventually overwhelm ---IMO they really want the Sunni triangle and the oil resources there which have been at the heart of the Sunni population complaints since 2010.

That is why I say IAI is back in action as they were always military focused due to a high number of former officers and Iraqi security officers and their close ties to the Sunni tribes which you are correct about---the tribes have walked away from the "Awakening" as in the end it was a fail move on their part years ago-it brought them nothing from Malaki but it did bring grief to their leaders.

What really interests me is the ISIS use of aggressive fast moving swarming attacks in ways that they initially showed us in the late 2000s which were small small--by the way those attacks were always a joint IAI/AQI attack--this is solid battlefield tactical movements that we the US Army probably could not today even come close to doing---that type of attack formation hit the 1st Cav hard in Diyala 2006/2007.

This is reforming the ME literally overnight and our foreign policy in the area is now totally in tatters as we somehow never seem to think long term and we shy away from even coming close to moderate Islamists of which there a few that would talk to us. We need to finally understand that populations will make their own decisions about their futures and sometimes it is not in our direction but that is OK if we can at least talk with them long term.

What we are really seeing is now a Mao phase three guerrilla war using mobile formations on the go and taking no prisoners along the way---notice that they are maintaining fluidity and movement--Mao would be proud and Che would be envious.