So what you're saying is that Russia is a state with identified interests and has assigned strategies and resources to fulfilling those interests... in other words, a rational state. Why are you reversing yourself from your previous position that Russia is an "irrational" state?Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
Appears that the cease fire did not hold longer than two days---and it seems the separatists were never gong to exchange prisoners as Putin suggested in his "so called peace plan".
So much for trusting anything Putin says and or does.
Fighting at #Donetsk airport. #Ukraine
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-06-2014 at 11:03 PM.
See the difference between us---just because Russia has a strategy and it is attempting via UW supporting political warfare to reach that end state does by no means indicate that it is both rational and well thought through.
Basically it flies in the face of the repeated claims that the Russian population will through the riches of it's natural resources surpass Europe.
The second thing I am waiting for you to discover and you tend to miss it--just how fascist is really Russia? Currently there are nine Russian "fascist" groups fighting with the separatists. Seems that when Communism disappears fascism raises it's head--some might say communism enhanced the development of fascism in the former SU.
Fascist movements shared certain common features, including the veneration of the state, a devotion to a strong leader, and an emphasis on ultranationalism and militarism. Fascism views political violence, war, and imperialism as a means to achieve national rejuvenation, and it asserts that stronger nations have the right to expand their territory by displacing weaker nations
AP---see the difference between us--I can recognize when Russia is in fact a fascist state but you cannot. Do you not see the not so subtle indicators in Putin's current course--- it matches to a T the above definition?
What is interesting is to watch the European neo ultra nationalists (ie Le Pen) in their support for Russia and--- AP watch what for the results coming out of the European/Russian Ultranationalist Conference that is ongoing in Yalta.
So yes I stand by the statement--Putin is living the dream but that dream is "an altered state of reality" driven by propaganda and fascism cloaked in the concept of ethno nationalist neo imperialism--again close to the definition above do you not think.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-06-2014 at 11:01 PM.
AP---going back to you use of the word "rational"----if Russia was actually acting "rationally" and truly felt that the Ukraine was in "their sphere of influence" as they still hold to the Yalta Agreements---remember the "legal hangup" I pointed out to you.
Then and only then if that is their "rationalization"---they could have taken a totally different although "rational approach".
There are a number of "rational ways" one country an "influence" another in order to ensure a "sphere of influence" and that is practiced daily even by western countries--we call it "globalization" and some on the left use the term "economic warfare" or "economic imperialism";
1. economics---Russia could have "allowed" the EU Association agreement to go forward with the modifications that the EU actually "allowed the Ukraine to build in to counter Russian fears"--actually would have been a smart move "rationally" as it would have allowed for a duty free union interface between the EU and the EEC for Russian products, goods, and services actually ensuring a steady growth of the current ailing Russian economy which was ailing even before the Ukraine.
BUT Russia did not do this---thus from a purely economics view point---"an irrational decision".
2. gas---Russia could have offered to lower their pricing down to what was offered China to emphasize the importance of the Ukraine to Russia and make that a long term multi year contract--and at the same time offer the Ukraine to rebuild the aging transit pipelines--AND stop the development of South Stream and emphasizing the importance of the Ukraine
BUT they did not do that--thus again an "irrational" economic decision.
3. financial aid on long term basis for the development of the Donbas regions which still is the old aging Soviet industrial base from 1991
BUT they did not thus an "irrational" move.
In exchange for super long term gas and financial assistance and a tie in for the EEC to the EU Ukraine could have then offered to place the regionalization, language issues, and local controls on a legal foundation--which I am fairly sure the Ukrainians in exchange would have done--that would have been a no brainer to them.
NOW the question to you---why did Russia opt to take the "irrational" way forward damaging their international standing for years to come in that no country will believe anything they say---and not to mention the damage to their economy over the next ten years---and causing the revival of NATO which by the way was declining if Russia had used the above approach?
WHY--because the Ukraine is just a smoke screen in order to achieve the pipe dream of the ultra nationalists currently sitting in a circle around Putin.
The recreation of the former Soviet Union under the guise of a Russian Empire image.
THAT AP is "irrational" as it entails the complete reordering of European borders as they were settled in the eyes of many Europeans when the Wall came down and many of the former eastern bloc decided for themselves what they wanted--outside of breaking a couple of long term internationally signed treaties.
What Putin does not realize is if he wanted a "war" to prove to the West he was a superpower player of sorts---he could have chosen the path of "economic warfare ie globalization" to prove his points---BUT he did not go that path and again the question to you is----Why not?
Answer--his country is a developing second rate country providing three raw resources (critical but the world can shift around and find new sources) nothing more nothing less and that does not get one into the "globalization" superpower status levels. Russia has spent years trying to get into the G8, the G20 and the WTO--as a national prestige thing and now all for WHAT--the "New Russia"?
AND yet you call this what "rational"?
So again AP--Putin is truly in an "altered state of reality"--ie in an ethno nationalist neo imperialist form of "fascism" which has fallen out of fashion in American PS/IR university courses these days just as the term "nationalism" or "political warfare" is no longer on many teaching agendas.
So maybe Putin will cause a revival in PS/IR courses---and that is "rationally speaking" a really good thing.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-07-2014 at 09:14 AM.
AP---stand corrected the Russian ultra nationalist council meetings were in Yalta last week not this week.
From another thread on Russia via kaur which goes to my statements on Russian fascism.
AND believe me---this event was an "actual altered state of reality" as it was being held in the former Soviet Union the Motherland of all Communists supposedly from 1918 until 1995.
From kaur's comment:
FSB guy Strelkov live and visiting sacred places in Russia. He is accompanied by famous Eurasian ideologue Dugin.
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1765761.html
Last weekend there was conference in Yalta, Crimea. Conference was organised by Kremlin hardlineres. Main speaker was Putin's adviser in Eurasian Union question Glazjev. It was carried by antifascist banners. Poroshenko led Ukraine was called fascist regime. They had also couple supporters from Europe.
http://nat-ali.livejournal.com/238399.html
Quote:
Roberto Fiore (born 15 April 1959 in Rome) is an Italian politician and a founding member of the European third position (terzo polo) movement which is against both communism and capitalism. He is the leader of the Italian party Forza Nuova. He self-identified as a fascist.[1]
Quote:
Luc Michel (born 1958) is a far-right Belgian political activist and supporter of the ideas of the Nazi-collaborator Jean-Franois Thiriart (having been his personal secretary[1]). He is the current leader and founder of the Parti Communautaire National-Europen as well as a former member of the no-nazi movement Fdration d'action nationaliste et europenne.
Michel is a supporter of National Bolshevism. He is a lawyer by profession, he has also written extensively on his political ideas. He has claimed to have the support of Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, in this endeavour.[2] Previously he had also sought contact with Action directe as part of his moves to link the far left and the left.[1]
What a crazy event!
Some of the Russian military "humanitarian aid" they recently provided to the Russian mercenaries--multiple different photos of this "aid" are online now.
https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/...03561919946753
https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/...819329/photo/1
Surprisingly Foreign Policy is now following Daily Beast in covering events in the Ukraine and this particular massacre by Russian airborne troops has not been fully covered by the West---it "occurred" after Putin "offered them a humanitarian corridor"---go back and recheck Chechen fighting and you will notice the Russian Army did the same thing there after "offering a safe corridor to Chechen fighters".
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...ovaisk_donetsk
NOTE: there has been some rather interesting comments carried by reputable journalists and bloggers that it appeared the attacks yesterday on Mariupol were in fact "to soon" meaning a key element of the Minsk "deal---ie the swapping of prisoners" which is suppose to happen today or tomorrow had not occurred yet.
THEN the Rumint on the street is the Russian Army will fully advance on Odessa and take the remaining portions of "New Russian" fully under their control---early Tuesday morning are the projections.
Will be interesting to see if this particular RUMINT is actually correct---interesting is the sudden announcement by the DNR that the "junta" had violated the ceasefire and they were going on the offensive---the town they named as the place of the "junta" military action was supposedly on the border but it was totally in a different place. THIS occurred exactly one minute after the artillery/GRAD attacks began on Mariupol.
THEN when it was pointed out online that the "Separatists" had announced that it was themselves breaking the ceasefire not the UA then the shellings suddenly stopped--coincidence?
By the way the Russian News Agency RIA started their announcements that the Ukrainians had broken the ceasefire exactly three minutes after the "separatists" made their announcements via Tweeter---coincidence?
The Russians ie Putin truly want the land corridor to Odessa in order to control the entire Black Sea ports, cut the Ukraine off from it sea ports thus truly crippling the Ukrainian economy literally forever, and to ensure the economic development of the Moldavian enclave (then annexation into Russia) and the Crimea.
Eastern Ukraine was just the smoke screen for this move and "New Russia" a side product of the smoke screen.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-07-2014 at 10:09 AM.
AP)--by the way I am not the only ne who sees Putin and Russia as being a far right regime and she is currently in south eastern Ukraine.
German MP @MarieluiseBeck " EU citizens dont understand that Putin´s regime is a far right regime" http://24tv.ua/home/showSingleNews.d...ampaign=social …
Russian ultra nationalists--who are basically really national fascists --many fighting in the Donbas with their own groups ---declare Putin to be a puppet of the West.
They dream of an anti liberal czarist regime.
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...-a-990258.html
To inherently and fully understand the new Russian military doctrine of New Generation Warfare which is really a UW strategy in support to political warfare.
We must learn and have available via translations some of the insights being stated by Russian General Officers concerning this new doctrine and the impact it has had in the Ukraine.
This following link is a translation of a top Russian Generals' views towards and about that new doctrine--a really worthwhile read as it spot on in his assumptions.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert...mov-putin-ukra...
The first two paragraphs of the translation are as the younger generation states "a hammer" and the national command authority better fully understand it and have long term strategy to counter "The New Generation Warfare" as it is now part and parcel of Russian doctrine which has been now fully field tested in the Ukraine.
Taken from the article:
Here is my translation of key portions of General Gerasimov's article, which appeared on "Military-Industrial Kurier" on February 27, 2013
In the 21st century we have seen a tendency toward blurring the lines between the states of war and peace. Wars are no longer declared and, having begun, proceed according to an unfamiliar template.
The experience of military conflicts -- including those connected with the so-called colored revolutions in north Africa and the Middle East -- confirm that a perfectly thriving state can, in a matter of months and even days, be transformed into an arena of fierce armed conflict, become a victim of foreign intervention, and sink into a web of chaos, humanitarian catastrophe, and civil war.
The current ceasefire is taking on the same dimensions as the first one four months ago.
The "separatists" are shelling Ukrainian positions and then complaining the Ukrainians are violating the ceasefire.
Just today over 11 shelling attacks and still no response by the Ukrainian Army and independent BNs.
Still no prisoner exhanges which was to be done by today---two were released on Friday and then the Russians and the "separatists" both stated the Cease Fire Plan is in effect and working---but again no prisoner exchanges which was a key Ukrainian demand.
A key shelling occurred last night in Mariupol and then this announcement today by the SBU:
BREAKING Ukraine SBU arrests Russian Saboteurs in Mariupol w AK-74s,Grenads,Ammo,encrypted radios
http://bit.ly/ZdF1xC
You have a very strange definition of 'rational' in the context of state decision-making and international relations. You seem to think that if a state does not make a decision you would make from your particular seat, and if a decision made does not produce the idealized goals, then it is somehow irrational. Neither of those are relevant to assessing whether a state is behaving rationally. This is a case of you making stuff up.
You are again making stuff up. Where have I disputed the characteristics of the Putin government?
See Point #1. The use of force is still a de facto legitimate means of achieving policy, irrespective of Western norms about its use. That a state can exercise force is irrelevant to whether it should. But this would be a case of you conflating the two, and once again making stuff up - this time about what is 'rational' for the Russian state to do.
Oh please. The central political contest in Ukraine has been the control of its state organs (and thus wealth) and from an international point of view, the control of the country's debt that finances the whole shaky structure. That is why Yanukovych repeatedly rebuffed the West and the EU - the terms of their loans meant dismantling his political base through privatization; that's hardly a rational choice. Once the Maiden revolution untethered the political process from its legal basis and installed an openly anti-Russian government, it was only a matter of time before Russia escalated its agitation. The Russians did not have a grand scheme for dismantling Ukraine - it's been an ad hoc response to developing conditions on the ground. First - the seizure of Crimea, and then the agitation in Donbas. If the Russians had planned annexation from the beginning, the seizure of half of Ukraine through armed conflict in the opening days of the crisis would have settled this issue for Russia months ago.
Because "international standing" and "trust" are less important than power. You know, that Roman adage of "Let them hate, so long as they fear." Politics hasn't changed in thousands of years.
Why do you think you in the West is his primary audience?
Russian military thought is about 20 years behind - and yet they still caught Washington by surprise. Yet your article still misses the part where it describes the leadership as "irrational"; seems like they're pretty well thought out and the West simply dropped the ball in understanding its adversaries. Probably because many are convinced, like you, that if a state does not behave in the way anticipated, it's "irrational" and therefore cannot be understood. That's a common problem for the West.
Last edited by AmericanPride; 09-07-2014 at 05:36 PM.
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
AP---if you still think Putin is not in an "altered state of reality" then seriously read this article from FP which is why I have been saying Putin and company are acting irrationally--they have come to the conclusion they can indeed survive a first strike tactical nuclear usage against Poland or the Baltics.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...russia_weapons
For those that believe that there are only a few thousand Russian soldiers ie contractors/vacationers here is a not finalized list of the Russian military units and their Russian bases that has been collected by journalists.
Now begs the question "incursion or in fact an actual invasion"?
Ukrainians Fight Against 20 Russian Army Brigades and Regiments
Posted on September 7, 2014 by chervonaruta
By FreeJournal
08.28.2014
Translated by Stepan Nikitchuk and edited by Voices of Ukraine
About 20 brigades and regiments of the Russian army are being thrown against Ukraine in Donbas. So writes the journalist network site: The Forgotten Regiment (zpolk.org):
“The most difficult thing for the relatives of the dead is to find and bring home [the dead] to bury their bodies. Nobody usually knows where the military unit that their son, husband, or brother serves in can be redeployed.”
Therefore, we publish this information about which troops have been moved into areas of active combat in Ukraine. We hope that this will become a reference point for family members who are worried about the fate of their relatives serving in the military.
This information, for obvious reasons, cannot be absolutely 100% accurate. But it is confirmed by fragmentary statements coming from the [Russian Federation] Ministry of Defense and journalist publications.
From the South Military District, Ground Forces and Artillery:
- Combat-Tactical Group (CTG) from the 18th Motorized Brigade based in Hankala/Kalynovska, Chechnya (the so-called Chechen battalion)
- CTG from the 17th Motorized Brigade – Shali, Chechnya
- CTG from the 136th Motorized Brigade – Botlikh, Dagestan
- CTG from the 205th Motorized Brigade – Budenovsk, Stavropol Region
- CTG from the 19th Motorized Rifle Brigade – Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia
- CTG from the 7th Military Base from the occupied Abkhazia, Georgia
- CTG from the 33rd Mountain Infantry Brigade – Maikop, Adygea
- Combined Division from the 291st Artillery Brigade – Troitskaya, Ingushetia
- Combined Company from the 78th Logistics Brigade – Budenovsk, Stavropol Region.
From the Airborne Troops:
- CTG from the 76th Division – Pskov
- CTG from the 98th Division – Ivanovo
- CTG from the 45th Separate Special-Purpose Regiment – Kubinka
- CTG from the 247th Regiment of the 7th Division – Novorossiysk.
CTG/RTG and divisions of the Ground Forces and Artillery units of the South Military District
- from the 20th Motorized Brigade – Volgograd
- 34th Mountain Infantry Brigade – Karachay-Cherkessia
- Division from the 943rd Artillery Regiment – Krasnooktyabrskoe, Adygea (MLRS “Hurricane”)
- Division from the 1st Missile Brigade – Krasnodar (PTRC “Tochka-U”, “Iskander-M”)
- 23rd Motorized Rifle Brigade – Samara
BTG / RTG from Airborne
- from the 56th Air Assault Brigade – Volgograd
- 106th Division – Tula
RTG / DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance groups)
- From the parts of the GRU stationed in the South of Russia
- the 10th Special-Purpose Brigade – Molkino, Krasnodar Region
- 22nd Special-Purpose Brigade – Aksai, Rostov Region
- 100th Experimental Reconnaissance Brigade – Mozdok, North Ossetia
- 346th Special-Purpose Brigade – Prokhladnyi, Kabardino-Balkaria
- 25th Special-Purpose Regiment – Stavropol
- 2nd Special-Purpose Brigade – Pskov
- 16th Special-Purpose Brigade – Tambov
- 3rd Special-Purpose Brigade – Ulyanovsk.
Source: freejournal.biz
Great BBC article on the foreign fighters on both sides in the Ukraine:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28951324
Sounds like the same debate American strategists had in the middle of the Cold War when debating "limited" nuclear conflicts. Given that no one has actually fought a nuclear war yet, it is only speculation about how it would escalate and de-escalate, and how much control the authorities could really exercise under such conditions. Some argue that any such speculation is foolish - so maybe you're right, but again, you would be proving too much since you are also discrediting U.S. nuclear strategy. As I do recall as recently as the Bush II administration discussions among U.S. officials about non-strategic uses of nuclear weapons as well U.S. consideration of using nuclear weapons against non-state actors armed with WMD. Maybe the conclusion after all is that any consideration of strategy beyond the first nuclear strike is "irrational". But that wouldn't fit well with your agenda, would it?
Last edited by AmericanPride; 09-07-2014 at 09:40 PM.
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
AP---see the differences again---but somehow you do not see them.
Has it be US policy to openly threaten neighbors and other superpowers with a nuclear strike--- has it be the policy of say this WH to order the military to hold tactical nuclear strike exercises clearly on say a series of specific countries?--has it be released in US military doctrine the use of first tactical nuclear first strike--updated say since 2012?
Even with our crazy Congress politics not many of those members have in open media declared that the US should use first strike on anyone other than maybe now IS.
Come on AP--you have got to get better at this.
One of the main Russian and their mercenaries arguments has been they capture Ukrainian military equipment thus their new found abundance of heavy tactical equipment.
Here is a T72 series only used by Russia and was never exported to anyone that has been repainted to "look" like an Ukrainian tank that was captured by the mercenaries.
Another lie busted! #Russia paints its own supplied tanks in Ukr. IFF to let them look like "captured"
pic.twitter.com/OXqrtevq1c
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/...797632/photo/1
AP---I posted a link to an article from Foreign Policy concerning the use of Orwell's' 1984 to truly understand Putin---it does in fact support my constant comment "altered state of reality". Based on your comments you apparently did not take the time to read and or reread it.
There are three things in that book that fit perfectly when analyzing Putin's mindset;
1. Orwells' use of the mythical country called "Eurasia"---much as Putin uses it
2. Orwell uses a term called "doublethink" which I call "altered state of reality" and which is being used by Putin and the Russian far right daily
3. a definition of what Power is
Doublethink allows a person to state two completely different and many times contradicting statements at the same time---AND this is key "fully believe both statements to be true".
One see's this daily with the Russian propaganda war that is massive right now-and which the SOCEUR has called a "blitz krieg".
That is why I have mentioned to you-- I do believe Putin is in fact believing his own propaganda which often happens when leaders feel they are on a roll and accept no criticism even from one's own advisors.
Remember I have tried to get you to understand that if one really listens to and reads the words of Putin since his Duma speech which I also know you did not read--you will see this "doublethink" in action.
SECONDLY, that is a line in the book where the main character is torturing a victim and he says "Power is not the means BUT the end state" or "goal".
AP--really give that statement some thought---is that not a perfect description of the current Russia "adventurism"?
1. reestablishing Russia as a world power ie superpower
2. the power to destroy the EU
3. the power to declass the US and to decouple it from Europe
4. the power associated with establishing the hegemony of Russia over Europe--we see that is the outright kidnapping on
Estonia soil of an Estonian State Security officer
5. power in destroying western liberal ideas of women's rights, homosexual rights, EU style economics, and the list goes on
NOW go back to 2008 starting with Georgia and reread every single statement made by Putin---POWER is in fact his stated end goal nothing more nothing less.
This is why I often allude to force as the single form of deterrent right now---POWER is what he understands and the West is afraid of using it.
Seriously do yourself a favor and read 1984---and that recommendation came not from me but a really good Yale Professor who wrote the article.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-08-2014 at 10:03 AM.
AP--here is the Orwell "doublethink" in action again;
example:
1. There are no Russian troops and or heavy weapons in the Ukraine
2. I have no intentions in splitting up the Ukriane
3. All that modern Russian military equipment that only exisits in Russia is in fact being driven by the "New Russia" military not my troops
BUt then this "doublethink"--last night's attacks on towns around Maruipol which speaks another line of thought from that above.
Under the guise of a "ceasefire" Russian troops which were not part of the "ceasefire" are continuing to surround Mariupol.
#BREAKING Russian troops use the ceasefire to surround #Mariupol.Night attacks on Novoazovsk, Sartanan and Kominternovo
https://twitter.com/MiddleEast_BRK/s...77950776012800
And there is no "altered state of reality" coming out of Russia?
Come on AP "see and understand".
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-08-2014 at 10:36 AM.
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