Kazakhstan

[davidbfpo]

Azor,

Great catch. This is one of three truly useful posts today. Excellent context that explains much of the context for possible Russian action in Kazakhstan.

[Azor]

Azor,

Great catch. This is one of three truly useful posts today. Excellent context that explains much of the context for possible Russian action in Kazakhstan.

My thinking is that any future Russian incursion will "surprise" the West, but not actually deviate from Putin's past adventures in Georgia and now the Ukraine:

1. The target will be in Russia's "sphere of influence", "backyard" or "near abroad"

2. The target's population will contain a substantial minority or majority of ethnic Russians or pro-Russians (Abkhazians and Ossetians being Caucasian/Iranic people)

3. The target will be start tracking toward the West or otherwise away from Russia's orbit

4. The target will have both military and economic importance to Russia at the strategic level

5. The target will not be protected by a mutual defense treaty or any other explicit military alliance

Two targets meet these criteria: Belarus and Kazakhstan.

[davidbfpo]

Land ownership remains a critical political issue, even more so when it is the Chinese who are expanding their land ownership in CEntral Asian states. The article starts with:

One topic guaranteed to inflame passions in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan is land and China. China has taken land from Central Asia and farmers from China are already working rented fields in Central Asia and that has not sat well with locals. It's playing a role in the recent widespread protests in Kazakhstan. Personally I'm inclined to agree with those who see Kazakhstan as a simmering pot at the moment. There are many issues right now that are causing discontent in Kazakhstan.

Link:http://www.rferl.org/content/central.../27711366.html