UK Counter-Terrorism (merged thread)

[davidbfpo]

A variety of reports:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12048598 and http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...-Pakistan.html

A mixture:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...d-in-jail.html

From which:

Muslims leaders said they tipped off police about the group of extremists in the Welsh capital, where five men between the ages of 23 and 28 were arrested. They said they had stopped the group from holding meetings in mosques in the last month and told them to "go elsewhere."
Mosque officials informed police but it is thought that MI5 was already aware of the group.

I know of one analyst who is puzzled that amongst the 'Xmas Twelve' are reportedly five Bangladeshi's, who went for training in Pakistan.

[AdamG]

I think this deserves its own thread and so I will move a few post here. Yes, this post will then appear not at the start.

For contextual dichotomy, the Peanut Gallery should read
http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...7&postcount=41

[davidbfpo]

There is another thread on the 7/7 bombings, shown below, but it covers the post-attack response and this thread starts following - late agreed - the missed opportunities to stop the attacks. Like others I do not like the phrase 'joining the dots', but it is an easy headline.

After much official resistance there is now a coroners inquest, with its own website:http://7julyinquests.independent.gov.uk/index.htm

There have been some headlines as witnesses have come forward. Today we learnt of a missed opportunity, which I cannot recall ever being in the public domain:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...e-Lindsay.html

Sub-titled:

Bedfordshire police failed to follow up an armed incident involving a car used by one of the July 7 bombers five weeks before the bombings, the inquest has heard.

Data management is a key issue, although this article is not new, it illustrates the LE aspects:http://www.fipr.org/terrorismdetention.pdf

Previous related SWC thread on 7/7: Interagency Coordination http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=6270

[davidbfpo]

The judge-led coroner's inquest on the 7/7 Bombings has reported in full and has caused some comment.

The BBC report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12629441

A senior officer from the MI5 intelligence service gave evidence anonymously, and said that while two of the bombers had been on the agency's radar, they could not have been stopped.

Although officials initially had said they had no advance knowledge of the bombers, inquiries revealed that Khan and Tanweer had been under surveillance as part of an investigation into an earlier, foiled, bomb plot.

They were never pursued because officials were overwhelmed with other threats perceived to be more serious.

From:http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2011..._r=1&ref=world

A more detailed analyst's comment on the evidence, written before today, gives more detail:http://raffaellopantucci.com/2011/04...2005-bombings/

[davidbfpo]

For many years the Jihadist bookshop 'Maktabah al-Ansar' in Sparkhill, in East Birmingham had a certain notoriety, with repeated police search warrants and finally in February 2007 property was seized that enabled a prosecution in October 2011. The bookshop being described by the prosecutor as:

This case is about the distribution of books and DVDs and other material which we say represent steps along the road to radicalisation of Muslims to engage in violent terrorist attacks around the world, including the UK....This case is also about the ways and means by which to solidify that radicalisation and provide practical assistance for those who have been radicalised. To encapsulate it in a single phrase, this case is about priming people for terrorism...now serving long prison sentences, having been found guilty of plotting to terrorise the British public

Link:http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/oc...ople-terrorism

At the trial several expert witnesses appeared for the prosecution and yesterday one of them authored a very significant article IMHO. This is the headline and sub-title:

This bookseller deserved his incitement to terrorism conviction (followed by) I was a witness in Ahmed Faraz's trial – this is the first time anyone involved has spoken about what really happened

Adding:

Much of the media discussion of the trial treated the texts as if they were translations of originals. In fact, all of the original texts had been doctored or adulterated in extremist ways....Throughout, the authority of the Qur'an and the Hadith (sayings of the Prophet) was invoked in false, de-contextualised ways to justify acts of violence against innocent people. The texts and videos divided the world strictly into the realm of "pure" Islam – godliness, virtue and knowledge – and the world of "pure" disbelief (kufr) – vice, godlessness and ignorance (jahiliyyah).

Link:http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...ism-conviction

The bookseller's conviction:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-16149299

A contrary viewpoint on the conviction is here:http://www.opendemocracy.net/ourking...ady-chatterley

[JMA]

For many years the Jihadist bookshop 'Maktabah al-Ansar' in Sparkhill, in East Birmingham had a certain notoriety, with repeated police search warrants and finally in February 2007 property was seized that enabled a prosecution in October 2011.

David, so it took from February 2007 to October 2011 to get these people to court? Does any sane person believe the 'war on terror' can be won like this?

[bourbon]

David, frankly I don’t get it. I imagine that monitoring this store could have yield a treasure trove of useful information – why shut down a potential intelligence goldmine?

[davidbfpo]

David, frankly I don’t get it. I imagine that monitoring this store could have yield a treasure trove of useful information – why shut down a potential intelligence goldmine?

This bookshop had a long history, with repeated raids, at least back to 1998 or 2000; it had a physical location till at least 2007 and then went on-line till 2011.

Locally many in the Muslim community knew what it represented and wanted it gone. Frequently the issue of a 'goldmine' or "honey pot" was raised locally and I would suggest by 2007 it's value had diminished. Not to overlook the rumours that the bookshop was a "front" and IIRC the murky role of the initial landlord.

One prominent name linked to the bookshop, a Moazzam Begg, moved on after being a co-founder, including a stint at Guantanamo Bay and became linked to other forms of campaigning:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moazzam_Begg

[davidbfpo]

David, so it took from February 2007 to October 2011 to get these people to court? Does any sane person believe the 'war on terror' can be won like this?

Most UK CT prosecutions take a long time to get to court, although IIRC the prosecution must present within sixty days enough of a case to satisfy the court. Then the court, prosecution and defence set about their own way of doing things, for example how many days will a full hearing take? Finding a court slot for a three month-long trial takes time.

In this case the police in 2007 and in 2010 found a mass of potential evidence, books and recordings. All need to be examined, maybe summarised and submitted for review by expert witnesses. Then there's full disclosure to the defence, who may challenge on various aspects, for example the qualifications of an expert witness, so another has to be appointed.

In this case the defendant was at liberty for most of the time once charged in February 2010.

Then there's the priority assigned to threats to life over incitement, so you can have a tiny team assigned to such a case as this.

[davidbfpo]

For a long time non-Irish, Jihadi CT investigations in the UK have not found firearms, although some arrest operations have involved armed police, others not. Firearms have been found in several cases with an extreme nationalist / right wing aspect.

In an investigation in London into travel to Syria in support of alleged terrorist activity, six men were arrested last week and four were released:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20976211 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21051656

Today we learn that in the original searches a converted, blank-firing sub-machine gun (MAC-10) and live ammunition were found, leading to one person, from Edgware, North London being charged with firearms offences, not terrorism and the other man was released without charge:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21066597

Having a blank-firing weapon is not uncommon in the UK alas.

Not a good development - even with no terrorism charges.

[bourbon]

...but all I could think of here was the "proper replica, bro...big hands" scene in the movie Four Lions.

[davidbfpo]

A "lurker" reminded me that an aspiring Jihadi sought to buy weapons after 7/7, but it was a "sting" in 2005:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6206886.stm

An aspiring Jihadi with a firearm and ammunition is not a good sign. I fully accept the defendant could have been an "ordinary decent criminal", having the firearm for other reasons.

[bourbon]

I think you need to look beyond just mere possession of a firearm.

The "barrier to entry" for a UK sourced active shooter attack is significant. A successful active shooter style attack, be it by a group or a lone-wolf, requires at least:

- some degree of training and familiarization with firearms;
- multiple firearms;
- ample supply of ammunition

Procuring these things in the UK significantly raises the risk of exposure for any active shooter plot.

I would also imagine the price of firearms on the UK black market is high - seeing as how the supply is low, and much of the demand would probably be from people in the narcotics trade who have the funds to pay a premium for weapons.

Obviously I have made assumptions here - but I believe they are fair ones, and the impression I get is that a homegrown active shooter style plot sourced from within the UK has significant risk of exposure and financial costs.

[Bill Moore]

http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2013/0...est/?hpt=hp_t4

UK trial reveals new al Qaeda strategy to hit West

The trial of three Birmingham men convicted Thursday of plotting to launch a "catastrophic" suicide bombing attack in the United Kingdom revealed that al Qaeda has developed a new strategy to target the West.

Not really new, but a lot of interesting detail coming out of this case.

Pantucci says the pressures on al Qaeda have resulted in a shift toward a new model of "fire and forget."

The March 2012 Toulouse terrorist shootings provided further evidence of looser control by al Qaeda of terrorist plots in the West. The perpetrator of the attack - Mohammed Merah - was encouraged by the group to return to France to launch an attack during a short stay in the tribal areas of Pakistan in September 2011 but planned every aspect of the operation himself, including which targets to strike.

[davidbfpo]

I am slowly reading the various post-trial MSM reports on this case, which has some aspects that are troubling and others that portray the convicted men as bumbling idiots. Yes they seen, no heard to be angry, motivated and trained. Much of the evidence came from bugging their conversations, even this:

MI5 on hearing via their home bug that these incompetent idiots were looking to buy a car for their gunpowder plot, managed to get them to buy a pre-bugged vehicle that they (MI5) had supplied.

Source not id'd. so could be "spin".

Troubling:

The two Irfans were also in contact with Lashkar-e-Taiba, the extremist group behind... Mumbai in 2008.

From:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...1-8505036.html

If LeT were involved that is to my knowledge the first time this originally Kashmiri group has taken such an anti-UK step - training for an attack in the UK. LeT are known for sending well-trained cadres to Afghanistan to ISAF & Afghan forces.

Bill cited Raffaello Pantucci, a now London-based analyst at RUSI, has a longer comment on:http://raffaellopantucci.com/2013/02...rrorism-today/

This BBC report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21534048 has a key 'lesson' and weakness for Jihadists:

One of them even conceded to police that if his two fellow plotters managed to find women who would have them, their anger with the world may have eventually gone away.

The plotters also appear to have overlooked the reaction of the local community, when they used bogus street collection to raise funds and lose them:

As for the cash, Naseer and his recruits went onto the streets of Birmingham during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, rattling collection buckets and wearing high-visibility tabards. They sought donations for a local madrassah project and a legitimate international development British charity, Muslim Aid. But the real plan was to con ordinary people. They collected some £13,000 from Muslims who regard it as a religious and moral duty to give to charity during Ramadan. Rahin Ahmed, another member of the cell, said he could make more money by investing it in online currency trading - he lost £9,000.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21414518

There is another aspect of this plot which fits on another thread, the failure of those who knew others had gone to Pakistan for terror training failing to inform the authorities.

[davidbfpo]

Steve Coll adds a different, long term perspective and ends:

Jihadist violence presents an enduring danger. Its proponents will rise and ebb; the amorphous threats that they pose will require adaptive security policies and, occasionally, military action. Yet the empirical case for a worldwide state of war against a corporeal thing called Al Qaeda looks increasingly threadbare. A war against a name is a war in name only.

Link:http://www.newyorker.com/talk/commen...#ixzz2LuFQXBpA

In discussions with analysts one conclusion was that a name change for AQ could make CT strategy difficult, which may explain why of late new names appear for what were suspected to be AQ affiliates.

[bourbon]

Steve Coll adds a different, long term perspective and ends:

Link:http://www.newyorker.com/talk/commen...#ixzz2LuFQXBpA

In discussions with analysts one conclusion was that a name change for AQ could make CT strategy difficult, which may explain why of late new names appear for what were suspected to be AQ affiliates.

Terrorism is about branding. The AQ brand is either dead or on life support right now.

Pre-9/11 AQ was like the Harvard of terrorism – you had to apply and few were selected. These days AQ is like a community college where anyone can show up so long as they have a pulse and a checkbook.

We are literally finding feeble-minded suspects in the west trying to launch attacks under the AQ brand. Actual frittata's – I swear some of these guys will burn their lips on an exhaust pipe trying to blow-up a bus.

[davidbfpo]

After the 1984 Brighton hotel bombing an PIRA spokesman stated:

Today we were unlucky, but remember we only have to be lucky once

Today six aspiring Jihadist terrorists pleaded guilty to plotting an attack @ Dewsbury, West Yorkshire, in June 2012, on a protest meeting held by the English Defence League (EDL), commonly labelled an extreme right / nationalist group.

Luckily:

...by the time the group arrived the crowd of around 450 protestors had completely dispersed.

What is significant IMHO is this is the first Jihadist planned attack on the EDL in the UK. It only failed as they arrived late. The six were all UK citizens, of Bangladeshi and Kashmiri origin, from East Birmingham mainly; their prepared leaflets stated:

To the EDL (English Drunkards League). O enemies of Allah! We have heard and seen you openly insulting the final Messenger of Allah... you should know that for every action there is a reaction. Today is a day of retaliation (especially) for your blasphemy of Allah and his Messenger Muhammad. We love death more than you love life. The penalty for blasphemy of Allah and his Messenger Muhammad is death.

The attack was discovered after a routine traffic stop, as one car used came up as being uninsured:

The gang had purchased car insurance over the phone earlier that day but because the wrong registration number had been provided, the car flashed up as uninsured.

See:http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/ap...dar?CMP=twt_gu

The car was seized and the contents were discovered when the recovery operator opened the boot, to conduct an inventory. Their weapons:

..two previously stolen sawn-off shotguns and nine cartridges, 11 bladed items, parts of a partially constructed pipe bomb, a firework-based IED containing 359 nails and 93 ball bearings...

Photos:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22353636

Only then did the police discover what the plotters intended. Needless to say there are other aspects, but the police and partners were not aware of the attacker's intentions or assembly of weapons.

Police press release, with video of the routine stop:http://www.west-midlands.police.uk/l...se.asp?ID=4658

A BBC report, which covers 'did the police miss the plot':http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22344054

A comment by the EDL's leftist opponents:http://www.hopenothate.org.uk/edl-demo-bomb-plot/

[bourbon]

Odd selection of a target, no?

I understand the insulting of the Prophet Muhammad grievance, but it would seem that from the jihadi perspective the EDL would be useful in polarizing/alienating moderate Muslims.

[davidbfpo]

Bourbon,

Here is one commentary by two analysts on the radicalization theme, the headline:

The failed EDL rally plot shows how much extremists need each other; Both the would-be terrorists who plotted the Dewsbury attack and the EDL rely on each other to incite their supporters' hatred.

Link:http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...-need#show-all

IMHO the plotters sought to ignite community conflict, preferably showing only the Jihadists fought the evil EDL, whatever the price paid. A good reminder how evil they were.