'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

[KingJaja]

For your information.

Abuja — Minister of State for Defence, Mrs. Olusola Obada, yesterday confirmed speculations that weapons stolen from Libyan armoury have found their way to Nigeria.

In the dying days of the regime of Libyan leader, Col. Muammar Gaddafi, the armoury was looted and some sophisticated weapons were reportedly stolen.

There had been unconfirmed reports that some of the looted weapons, which included surface-to-air launchers, had found their way into Nigeria and might be part of the Boko Haram armoury.

Obada, speaking in Abuja when a delegation of the National Defence University of Pakistan visited the Ministry of Defence, confirmed the report but expressed confidence that Nigeria is at peace with all countries of the world and, therefore, free from any form of external security threats, especially from its immediate neighbours.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201204110266.html

[Chowing]

Boko Haram puts a three month window on bring down Goodluck and the government. Could this be an empty threat? Not sure that many Nigerians would take it as such.

Nigerian Islamist sect Boko Haram also Jama’atu Ahl-Sunnati Lil Da’awati Wal Jihad intends to bring down the government and "devour" President Goodluck Jonathan within three months, its purported leader said in his second al Qaeda-style video

http://elombah.com/index.php/latest-...n-three-months

[KingJaja]

In three months they are going to attempt something very dynamic. If they pull it off, it gets very interesting and dangerous.

1. Any attempt on the life of Jonathan by Boko Haram will be interpreted as an attempt by the Northern Muslim elite to terminate his regime. There will be horrible reprisal attacks.

2. Jonathan is an Ijaw from the Niger Delta and is quite close to Niger Delta militants (he helped broker the last cease fire). Expect Nigeria's crude oil production to be affected if he is harmed.

3. For all their noise and violence Boko Haram is yet to cross the River (Niger) - i.e. they haven't posed a direct threat to Southern Nigeria, yet. If they do this, they would have crossed the River. Crossing the River means that all bets are off.

[KingJaja]

Suicide bombers kill eight yesterday in coordinated attacks on media houses. Two attacks at Abuja and Kaduna.

The media yesterday got a taste of the violence in some parts of Nigeria. Eight people died and 14 others were injured in a suicide bomb explosion at THISDAY office in Abuja and Kaduna where a building housing the newspaper as well as The Sun and Moments was attacked.
In the accident, three people died and two were injured. A suspect was arrested.
The bomber was among the casualties of the Kaduna incident.
The bombing also destroyed 10 vehicles and left the Press Hall badly damaged.
The once beautiful edifice became a shadow of itself - shattered windows, broken walls and shredded copies of part of today’s edition.
The imposing gate leading to the devastated Press Hall that houses the company’s Goss Community printing machine was destroyed.
The staff gate was severely damaged and partly burnt. The generator beside the gate was burnt. A part of the fence by the gate collapsed, felling a tree.
The wreckage of the suicide bomb vehicle was buried inside the devastated Press Hall. Policemen and aid workers were battling to retrieve it.
The newsroom was in tatters – upturned tables, smashed seats and crushed computers.
All the glasses in the building, including doors, were shattered. Parts of the roof were blown off with no ceiling left hanging.
The premises was strewn with pieces of shrapnel from the bomb laden vehicle and broken glasses.
A crater, which must have resulted from the impact of the blast, was seen about two meters from where the SUV was lodged. Parts of the wall of the building from where the car entered the premises caved in.
The huge loss drew tears from many workers and sympathisers. For about six hours, business was brought to a halt at Jabi Motor Park , the bustling transit station opposite the THISDAY office.
Islamist sect Boko Haram last night claimed respionsibility for the bombings. It threatened to target other journalists.

http://www.thenationonlineng.net/201...ia-houses.html

I watched snippets from the Southern Nigeria economic summit. It seems that the political leadership and people of that part of Nigeria are of the firm conviction that Boko Haram is a tool by Muslim politicians from Northern Nigeria to destabilise the Jonathan administration and thus position themselves for the presidency in 2015.

I don't think the risk to Nigeria is the presence of Al Qaida, the risk is in the reaction to Boko Haram. This is Africa, and if the rest of Nigeria gangs up to "punish the North" for permitting the presence of Boko Haram, it will not be pretty.

Right now, I am hearing a lot that gives me cause for worry. Muslim Northerners, understandably are extremely worried. There is a lot vitriol on the airwaves. People are blunt in their assessment of who they view as the "problem of Nigeria".

The Jonathan administration is weak and weak administrations tend to deflect blame on others.

Dangerous times.

[KingJaja]

Interesting read....

Boko Haram’s operations during the period of fall 2011 to spring 2012 began with the major series of suicide attacks, bombings and targeted murders in the Yobe state capital of Damaturu,[6] which killed at least 100 people. These operations were clearly designed to expel Christians from northern mid-range towns. (Much of the Christian population of Maiduguri already fled the city during the previous period, fall 2010-spring 2011.) Anecdotally, it seems that the Damaturu and follow-up operations in the states bordering Boko Haram’s core region of Borno and Yobe have succeeded in causing the balance of the Christian population to flee.

The next series of operations focused on Jos and Abuja, both cities with a substantial expatriate population and good media coverage. These attacks occurred on Christmas Day 2011, again a symbolic date guaranteed to make headlines.[7] These operations used suicide attacks against churches and killed at least 25 people. It is a mystery as to why this attack came as a surprise given that Boko Haram had previously executed spectacular attacks on Christian targets on Christmas Day in 2010. In Jos and Abuja, however, in contradistinction to the Damaturu attacks (and others in the northeast), the Christian population is quite strong—even at a majority level—and therefore there is no chance that Boko Haram, lacking broader military options, can do anything other than provoke terror. There have also been major thematic attacks on Christian targets on January 5, 6, 10, 11, 24 (all in either Maiduguri, Adumawa or Jos), February 19 (Suleja, near Abuja), and February 25, 2012 (Abuja and Jos), of which the Jos attack was a suicide bombing.[8]

Boko Haram has managed to take a semi-dysfunctional society lacking basic security and the rule of law and drive it into a complete state of dysfunction where the only obvious means by which order can be re-established is through draconian state-security methods (akin to Algeria in the 1990s) or by acceding to the group’s demands. The latter option would indeed cause a civil war, as the Christians through fall 2011 and spring 2012 have become increasingly impatient with the lack of tangible governmental progress against Boko Haram. There is a strong danger of revenge attacks by Christians on a local ad hoc basis,[9] or even worse the creation of an equivalent vigilante group that could mirror Boko Haram’s tactics.

http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/boko-h...rthern-nigeria

[KingJaja]

A LOT has been happening in Nigeria this past week, but since nobody is interested, I'll probably stop posting.

GUNMEN suspected to be Boko Haram members attacked students singing praises to herald church service inside the Bayero University, Kano, on Sunday, killing no fewer than 10 worshippers, while about 16 others sustained varying degrees of injury.

A professor, Andrew Leo, of Library Department, was among those killed in the bomb blast.

The university’s spokesman, Alhaji Mustapha Zaradeen confirmed the death of seven persons, who were mostly students and other worshippers from outside the university.

This is just as the chairman, Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) Kano State chapter, Bishop Ransom Bello, described the attack on students as barbaric.

The tragic event, which occurred at the old site of the university campus at about 8.30 a.m, caught the student unawares, as the invaders, who came on motorcycles, used Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and guns to send the victims to their untimely death.

The attack appeared to be a coordinated one, as the gunmen stormed the two centres where students were worshipping.

The two places services were being held were the Lecture Theatre, where an interdenominational service was holding and the Sport complex, where Catholic faithful were gathered. However, the highest member of casualties was recorded at the Sport complex.

A source, who preferred anonymity, said the gunmen came through the backgate on the new campus road of the university and immediately went straight to the lecture theatre and the sport complex, threw IEDs and fired their guns at the same time.

http://tribune.com.ng/index.php/fron...bayero-varsity

Another attack on a Church in Maiduguri on Sunday.

(Reuters) - Nigerian Islamist sect Boko Haram killed four people in an attack on a Sunday church service in the northeast town of Maiduguri, police said on Monday, adding to the death toll from a separate shooting in the country's second largest city Kano.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...83T09420120430

Another attack this morning - extremely ominous because it appears that Boko Haram is moving down south. The police commissioner was targeted.

At least five people have been killed in a bomb attack on a police convoy in north-eastern Nigeria, police say.

"A bomber on a motorcycle rammed into the police rider [motorcycle escort]," a police spokesman said.

The attack in the normally quiet town of Jalingo comes a day after at least 20 people were killed at churches elsewhere in northern Nigeria.

No group has said it carried out the bombings but militant group Boko Haram has staged many such attacks.

It has carried out several suicide bombings across the mainly Muslim north of Nigeria, where it wants to establish Sharia law.

Some reports say local police commissioner Mamman Sule was targeted in the Jalingo attack.

Witnesses say Mr Sule survived the attack but that the huge explosion ripped through a nearby market and the local finance ministry offices, the AP news agency reports.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17895794



Mark out Maiduguri, Kano and Jalingo. Consider how far south Jalingo is. Is it possible that it is only a matter of time before Boko Haram moves further south?

Also remember that Nigeria is about the same size as Texas and California combined. It is a huge country. Boko Haram seems to have extensive logistical support.

We might be dealing with an organisation as well organised and potent as the Taliban in a few years.

[KingJaja]

Map illustrating Boko Haram's reach so far.

[Stan]

A LOT has been happening in Nigeria this past week, but since nobody is interested, I'll probably stop posting.

Hey Jaja !
That would be a shame but you are certainly entitled to your own decisions. It's not a lack of interest as most of us are quite busy. I have 5 teams in Africa from Libya to Brazzaville and taking care of them is priority One.

To date, the Nigerian government seems incapable of responding to Boko Haram, and through a series of mistakes has revealed what outside observers have long suspected: certain elements of the security forces and political leaders of Muslim-majority northern Nigeria are either complicit with Boko Haram’s operations, or they are taking a rather complacent view of its success.

Thanks for a good find and read ! You and I have had some varying views on BH and this guy (7,000 miles away) manged to put all of that together. I'm of the opinion that the Nigerian security are wallowing in their slight successes and let their guard down, and, you have pointed out many times that BH has contacts at every level.

3. For all their noise and violence Boko Haram is yet to cross the River (Niger) - i.e. they haven't posed a direct threat to Southern Nigeria, yet. If they do this, they would have crossed the River. Crossing the River means that all bets are off.

As you may recall, I often wondered what keeps BH from going after all the foreigners - soft targets. It's clear their reach south is limited, but it also seems clear the foreigners are not their prime targets.

Keep posting

Regards, Stan