Musharaff's Smart Move: Kiyani's Appointment
General Musharaff, under enormous pressure from both within and without Pakistan, has accepted the fact that the U.S. will not support him if he declares martial law in order to remain both Pakistan’s COAS and President. Ignoring the U.S. administration isn’t an option either if the generous cash flow is to continue that has helped Pakistan revitalize its economy. Yet, as with previous Pakistani leaders, Musharaff has a hard time giving up the kursi (Urdu for “chair”). To seek, and win, another five year term as President (which is now a done deal, although the Supreme Court hearing of petitions is a temporary hitch to the plan) is the way Musharaff sees himself holding on. Although, removing his uniform as COAS will diminish his grip on power, ensuring that the new COAS is a strong ally is one way to try to maintain a revised status quo (and to stay safe).
It appears Musharaff had both luck and the good sense to tap Kiyani –who just got his 4th star along with General Majid—as the new VCOAS while retiring General Ahsan Saleem Hayat on Oct 8th. As luck would have it, Kiyani has the seniority to justify his appointment. Historically, COAS’s were always deep selected from amongst the more junior flag ranks based on a perception (proven false) that they would --out of gratitude?-- act like sycophants, only to have these “appointees” launch coups of their own (like Zia and Musharaff, the two with the longest tenures in power besides Ayub).
Kiyani has a reputation for being both competent and loyal. Furthermore, notwithstanding the dismal results of the Pak army’s strategy in the Tribal belt, especially in South and North Waziristan, he has proven to be effective at coordinating the various entities in hunting down Islamists, especially those behind the Musharaff assassination attempts. His reward: Directorship of ISI. He is a moderate Muslim in an army that at the lower ranks is morphing into a more conservative institution (read: Islamist sympathizers). He is a uniter based on his ethnicity and background: a Punjabi from the Potowar Plateau region near Jehlum (known as the soldier factory of the country for good reason) and the son of an NCO. The fact that he comes from a relatively humble background at a time when within the NCO ranks morale and disgruntlement with the army leadership is at an all time high, is a morale booster. This is also unprecedented and it gives the lower ranks a glimmer of hope that one day their sons too can hold one of the highest offices in the military.
Given the ongoing humiliation of the Army in the FATA and the recent Lal Masjid incident (which involved some casualties that were kin of NCOs who had sent their children to its madrassas, both the boys and girls sections), Kiyani as the future COAS would definitely be a much needed morale booster that should not be underestimated. The perception: finally that damn Mohajir (refugee from India) i.e. Musharaff is being replaced by one of us (a Punjabi aka Kayani) and he’s an NCOs boy!
Kiyani as COAS would be perceived favorably by the Punjabis (the overwhelming majority of the population), by the enlisted ranks, by his fellow officers who admire (and envy) his abilities and by Bhutto, who he served as military secretary in her first term. He will not be appreciated in both Baluchistan and the NWFP (inc FATA) where he is seen as a Musharaff stooge and the architect of the army’s intervention into the FATA, with disastrous effects all round. But his presence will have a soothing/stabilizing effect for the army that also controls Pakistan nuclear arsenal.
Wana 88
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Good post, Thank you.
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