Pakistani Army commentary

[omarali50]

I have a post up about the attack on Karachi airport and on Shia pilgrims

http://brownpundits.blogspot.com/201...nd-rocket.html

Excerpt:

What would a different strategy look like:

1. We should have switched sides completely in 2001. Calculating that Islamist terrorism will be a problem for us, a problem for India, for China, for Afghanistan, for Central Asia, for America, etc etc and we are better off having normal relations with these countries, we should have dropped the whole Jihadi option. Entirely. Completely. No good jihadists, no good taliban, no good Kashmiri militants, etc etc. In other words, we should have taken the opportunity to completely reverse a policy that was always a bad idea. We should have sided WITH America, with China, with the new Afghan regime and even with India against the Jihadist network.
2. Of course, the details of any such switch would have been a bit murky. Some lying would have been involved. But at least the people on top would have been clear about what they were trying to do. That has NOT been the case. If we had switched sides in 2001, by now the mess could have been sorted out. But 13 years were wasted while we tried to double-cross Amrika (this is not a controversial claim, many patriotic Pakistanis miss no opportunity to crow about the American failure in Afpak and to take some credit for wrecking it). We also kept alive a terrorist option against India. After Mumbai, we did not unequivocally act against the terrorists. In fact, our propaganda effort has been focused on creating doubts about the loyalties and identities of the perpetrators. This again is not a secret, or a controversial claim. It is also a mistake.

There is no way win the war against Jihadist terrorists by picking on some of them and by spreading mass confusion about their identity and aims. Terrorists dont just appear out of thin air to attack an airport. They have places of refuge, they have trainers, they have leaders, they build bombs and make plans in some physical location. These networks can be traced, their leaders killed or captured and their political supporters isolated and condemned. It is not rocket science. And it does not seem to be happening nearly to the extent which it should.

And when we do go after them, we will also have to ally WITH America, with China, and yes, even with India. Otherwise, it wont work. Good terrorists will provide cover to bad ones. Approved Islamists will help out unapproved ones. Propaganda will remain confused. and the general public will not be successfully mobilized in the effort. Law enforcement agencies will continue to hesitate to take action against particular terrorist networks and supporters because they will never know for sure who is currently approved as good and who has become bad.
It is possible that the deep state is now truly committed to defeating these groups. But if that is so, they are doing poor job of showing their priorities.

What do you think.. Has the policy now changed? Will it change soon?

[davidbfpo]

Omarali asked just:

What do you think.. Has the policy now changed? Will it change soon?

No, the policy has not changed - even after a Nawaz Sharif's government took power.

This theme has been widely discussed on another thread, for sometime now.

What will cause the Pakistani state and the national security establishment to change course?

There is a simmering insurgency in parts of the FATA, terrorist attacks of which Karachi civil airport is the latest, sectarian murders and more. Yes civilians are often those who die first, such as the Shia minority. What about those who serve in the civil and military forces, who know condoned, if not supported groups kill them often without retribution?

[MoorthyM]

I have a post up about the attack on Karachi airport and on Shia pilgrims

http://brownpundits.blogspot.com/201...nd-rocket.html

Excerpt:

There is no way win the war against Jihadist terrorists by picking on some of them and by spreading mass confusion about their identity and aims. Terrorists dont just appear out of thin air to attack an airport. They have places of refuge, they have trainers, they have leaders, they build bombs and make plans in some physical location. These networks can be traced, their leaders killed or captured and their political supporters isolated and condemned. It is not rocket science. And it does not seem to be happening nearly to the extent which it should.

And when we do go after them, we will also have to ally WITH America, with China, and yes, even with India. Otherwise, it wont work. Good terrorists will provide cover to bad ones. Approved Islamists will help out unapproved ones. Propaganda will remain confused. and the general public will not be successfully mobilized in the effort. Law enforcement agencies will continue to hesitate to take action against particular terrorist networks and supporters because they will never know for sure who is currently approved as good and who has become bad.
It is possible that the deep state is now truly committed to defeating these groups. But if that is so, they are doing poor job of showing their priorities.

What do you think.. Has the policy now changed? Will it change soon?[/I]

Omar, in my view the situation in Pakistan needs to be viewed very differently.

I have proposed that by popularizing a self-serving narrative of sharia, clerics have, by and large, created the Pakistan we see today.

Here's the link to my forthcoming paper: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...act_id=2420652.

I think this focus on the Pakistani military (the so-called deep state) is misplaced (the basis of C. Fair's flawed book - see my review at Amazon).

The good news is this paper of mine has some meaning ideas on how to extricate Pakistan (and others) from regreesive forces and nudge it toward modernity.

[omarali50]

By now even I am scared of predicting anything, but a man's gotta do what a man's gotta do, so here goes

http://brownpundits.blogspot.com/201...ions-2014.html

Excerpt:
1. Dr A (source of the "Jihadi Army" prediction in 2009 and 2012) says he has NOTHING to change in his prediction from 2009. Pakistan ka matlab kya, La illah a illalah (What is the meaning of Pakistan? There is no God but Allah). All has been prepared for the feast. Apostates, liberals and Shias should book their tickets while Karachi airport is still operational. The triumph of the warriors of Allah is not far. Most of the current army will switch sides. And will then discover some decidedly unpleasant facts about their more Islamic partners from Waziristan. Zaid Hamid and Hamid Gul will be hanged in Islamabad BEFORE the attack on Red Fort Delhi ever begins. Somalia will look like a walk in the park compared to the #### that will fly in the land of the pure. Eventually, warlords and mafia gangs will break up the country and foreign powers will try to establish zones of influence in the more useful/governable areas. Or it may all vaporize in a nuclear exchange.

2. Comrade Zee's comments are awaited.

3. My prediction: I no longer feel confident of making any predictions. As Ali Minai might say, it is a complex situation and unpredictable phase transitions are the only safe prediction. It could be that there will be a stabilization of the Sharif regime and the army will gradually take action against all Jihadists in some mysterious order only they understand. But I must admit that even an eternal optimist like me now feels that it is more likely that phase one will be a continuing confused and inept response from the Sharif government, with the army simultaneously fighting the bad Taliban and undermining the elected government. When the #### has hit the fan in sufficient quantity (####-fan contact being a process rather than a singular event in Pakistan) the people of Punjab (the only ones who really matter as a people) will be so sick of MNS that the army will be "forced to impose Martial Law". Phase two would then be a temporary stabilization under army rule. At that point the British colonial roots of the army could hold, allowing it to act as a disciplined force to suppress true believers and brazenly lie its way through to bloody and shaky stabilization of pseudo-Islamic crony capitalist Pakistan. Or it could all fall apart after that, in which case the fate of the constituents depends on how well India and Afghanistan are holding up and what China and America are pushing for (with the minor safe prediction that China will make more rational choices in that situation than America will).
Predicting everything from Sharif stabilization to Army stabilization to complete anarchy is not really a prediction, its many contradictory predictions. That is where I am right now.

Add your predictions. The more concrete the better.

[carl]

Omar:

I won't predict. But I do fear greatly something I think is a credible possibility.

In all the tooing and froing, something, I know not what, will happen that will cause India to doubt that the Pak Army has full control of its nukes and that some takfiri killers will get hold of some. India will then have no choice but to act and try to secure those weapons. I am sure they have forlorn hope type plans for that. This will cause the nukes to fly both east to west and west to east. Tens, probably hundreds of millions will die.

This possibility is why I think the Pak Army is the most dangerous organization on earth.

[Ray]

Omar:

I won't predict. But I do fear greatly something I think is a credible possibility.

In all the tooing and froing, something, I know not what, will happen that will cause India to doubt that the Pak Army has full control of its nukes and that some takfiri killers will get hold of some. India will then have no choice but to act and try to secure those weapons. I am sure they have forlorn hope type plans for that. This will cause the nukes to fly both east to west and west to east. Tens, probably hundreds of millions will die.

This possibility is why I think the Pak Army is the most dangerous organization on earth.

Pakistan Army calls the shots and even when there is a civilian govt, the Army is consulted and it is their decision that is final; or so it appears from Musharraf's book.

It is believed that the Pak Army controls the nukes and not the Govt. At least that is what is the impression given.

As I see it, historically there has been the jockeying for power in Pakistan between the Army and the Civilians and now we have the third element - the non state actors. In all this jockeying, even when there was a civil Govt, the Army ensured that they were supreme. Therefore, I wonder if the Pakistan Army will give space to the non State actors, even though they themselves have spawned such non state actors and is still nurturing.

There is an interesting phenomenon in Muslims, which is that there is a high sense of competitiveness within and without, which leads to the internal jockeying and strife to act as the 'sole inheritors' and trampling other factions.

Maybe it is from the unending and unfortunate manoeuvring to be supreme - the legacy from the historical past when their Prophet died, leaving a divided Islam transmogrifying from Spiritual Islam to Temporal Islam that impacts the mindset.

One cannot say for sure, but if one observes the strife in the Islamic countries, especially those in the Middle East and close to the Middle East, one gets the feeling that that leaders and factions are more keen to topple each other rather than address them to the progress and development and peace of their people. This is evident from North Africa to the Indian subcontinent.

I will hasten to add that because of this high competitiveness amongst them, it is not difficult for outsiders to foment problems for them exploiting the same.

I don't think India will provoke any war or even encourage Pakistan to embark on one against India. It is not in India's interest, though in India, they observe with concern how Pakistan is hell bent to implode thanks to the inherent fault line of temporal Islam where each entity wants to be a Khalifa.

India's real problem is China and that is where the focus lies.

This is my analysis and I could have misread the matrix.

[Ray]

This is from a column by Khaled Ahmed, a Pakistani political analyst.

Every year,December 16 is observed in Pakistan as a moment of morose stocktaking,in which India is held responsible for the break-up of Pakistan in 1971. However,over the years,the Pakistani media has taken to mixing the message. It now balances the short-term culpability of India with the long-term culpability of Pakistan.

But the media in Pakistan has mixed the message more than usual this time. The “secret” Hamoodur Rehman Commission report on the atrocities committed by the Pakistan army in East Pakistan in 1971 has been taken out of the state’s closet of collective conscience and quoted to great effect.
Unread books by honest military officers are now being quoted to the embarrassment of the Jamaat

The idea of imposing Urdu on East Pakistan was born in the mind of a non-Bengali education secretary of East Pakistan,F.A. Karim,who was able to convince a dimwit Bengali central education minister in Karachi,Fazlur Rehman,to adopt it. It also caught the imagination of the governor of East Pakistan,Malik Feroz Khan Noon,not the brightest son of Punjab. He started the scheme of writing Bengali in the Arabic script. By 1952,there were 21 centres doing this in East Pakistan,funded by the central education ministry. The East Pakistan chief minister didn’t even know that this was happening outside the primary school stream.

More significantly,the book called into question the “victories” against India in 1948 and 1965. The first war failed to achieve its objective because “we caved in without consolidating initial success”. The second war was first opposed by General Musa and General Ayub,but after they agreed to it,no authentic information was obtained about the “sympathetic” Kashmiri insurgency,and wrong assumptions were made about India’s capabilities of launching a major offensive across the international border.

Here is the climax of the book: “[Enter Commander,East Pakistan,General Niazi,wearing a pistol holster on his web belt. Niazi became abusive and started raving. Breaking into Urdu,he said: ‘Main iss haramzadi qaum ki nasal badal doon ga (I will change the race of this bastard nation).’”
Raja adds: “He threatened that he would let his soldiers loose on their womenfolk. There was pin-drop silence at these remarks. The next morning,we were given the sad news. A Bengali officer,Major Mushtaq,went into a bathroom at the command headquarters and shot himself in the head.”

The ex-foreign minister of Bangladesh,Kamal Hossain,in Bangladesh: Quest for freedom and Justice (2013),reports a conversation with Pakistan’s former foreign minister,Aziz Ahmed: “When pressed to suggest what should be done to those (Biharis) who were clearly eligible and entitled to go to Pakistan,but whom Pakistan was not willing to accept,Aziz Ahmed turned round and said,‘Why don’t you push them into India?’ When told that this was hardly feasible,he retorted,‘Then push them into the Bay of Bengal’.”

http://indianexpress.com/article/opi...tan-1971-2/99/