Pakistani Army commentary

[davidbfpo]

Taken from Omerali:

The Swat operation paper looks like it was written by someone in the Pak army...

I can assure you that the author is not in the Pakistani Army, nor dependent on them.

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

Your post is interesting.

Here are a few curb stone observations as an old Pakistan/Afghan hand from long, long ago, the President /Field Marshal Ayub Khan era in country:

1. The PPP nationally in Pakistan and in the Northern Pakhtun heavy areas of Pakistan the ANP are helping turning the corner toward more democracy, SW Asia style democracy, than ever before.

2. The major problem since inception in 1947, as an Islamic or theocratic Republic, has been the Mulism based parties, who are very clearly in my view mixed in with aspects of the Taliban, al Qaida, and their fellow traveler associated splinger groupings of thugs, all in my Muslims friends over there view "bent on kidnapping Islam" to justify their God awful existance.

3. While in retrospect it is true that the ISI, in particular, enabled and has used the Taliban (in particular) in years of struggle with Afganistan, and in Kashmir against India, last few years even into mainland India via Lahore, the new President of Pakistan is doing in my view his level best to end this sort of foolish, dumb ass tactics and stragety.

4. The growth in the number and now into higher ranks, as in field grade promtions, of loyal Pakistani Pakhtuns is visible evidence of a better day for ethnic minorities, ie, including and best exemplified by the Pakhtuns, in Pakistan's military, and one would assume now, government.

5. As the whole free world frets, rightly so, over nuclear weaponry development in Iran, N. Korea, etc., it is a clear cut fact of life in Pakistan which alone justifies heavy involvement when and where allowed to keep the terrorist hands off nukes. This is not a glib remark, as a realistic fear at any time, worldwide, is an unwanted small or large "mushroom cloud" via a non aircraft delivered nuclear bomb, some of which today fit in size into the head of a simple artillery shell....in size.

In summary, you take what you can get to move forward; you cannot rewrite nor change past history; and your biggest challenge today is the Pakhtun unwritten constituion or cultural "customs" which promote grudges, getting even, and related archaic traditions that create a never ending cycle of violence.

The Swat operation paper looks like it was written by someone in the Pak army and seems to reflect some recognition that their arming and training of militants was not necessarily a good idea. Thats a good thing. But it does not show any glimmer of understanding that the arming and training of half a million potential terrorists was just one aspect (albeit the most dangerous and self-destructive) of a 60 year record of misrule and misdirection. Pakistan shared the pathologies but also the possibilities of British India. The army hijacked that process and took it upon itself (with US support) to "improve" the nation. Some recognition of the disastrous effect of this is now commonplace in civilian pakistan, but still missing in the army and its think tanks..which would not be the end of the world if the army had not meanwhile destroyed or nearly destroyed all other institutions. Rebuilding those institutions and bringing the military to heel is essential, otherwise the next Napoleon will try something even more disastrous. Ultimately, that is a job for the people of Pakistan, but their job will be nearly impossible if the world's pre-eminent superpower is operating at the level of Anthony "firm-hand-musharraf" Zinni....

[omarali50]

Your post is interesting.


In summary, you take what you can get to move forward; you cannot rewrite nor change past history; and your biggest challenge today is the Pakhtun unwritten constituion or cultural "customs" which promote grudges, getting even, and related archaic traditions that create a never ending cycle of violence.

I agree that you have to move forward from wherever you find yourself. The point of bringing up past misdeeds was to indicate that the Pakistani army as an institution has pursued policies that are inimical to peace and development in the region and a long term change in their "strategic mindset" is needed, and may not be as deep as they currently present it, so we have to harp on it a little...
Secondly, I think the role of archaic pakhtun codes in this insurgency (particularly on the Pakistani side) is over-rated. If Pathans are so determined to avenge every attack, then how come they are not avenging the hundreds of deaths suffered at the hands of taliban and their suicide bombers? After all, those deaths in Pakistan exceed the numbers killed by US missiles? I think this "archaic code" is a smokescreen. There is a very real level of support for Islamists (which is not necessarily the same as the archaic code) but in the end, its about the corruption and uselessness of existing structures, determined and ruthless leadership on the other side, delivery of cheap justice, and a good solid guess about who is likely to come out on top. Suicide bombers are NOT usually self starters from Bradford and in this case they are not aggrieved tribesmen out on some "cycle of revenge". There is an organization and there are specific individuals who recruit and train them. How many bombers are taking revenge for the sake of some "archaic code"? my guess is "near zero". They are recruited from madressas and trained and fired as needed by organized groups with very modern organizational skills and very clear aims and revenge is one of the smaller motivators in this package. Nothing archaic about it.

[Jedburgh]

NAF, 17 Sep 09: Pakistani Capabilities for a Counterinsurgency Campaign: A Net Assessment

As a more effective Taliban steps up its operations along the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Western observers increasingly are calling on Pakistan to implement a strategy of population-security counterinsurgency, or COIN. This paper will offer a net assessment of Pakistan’s military capabilities to conduct such a campaign based on clearly stated assumptions, an analysis of opensource materials, and textbook COIN doctrine and best practices. It will examine the gap in Pakistani efforts and the choices required to fill this gap based on:

1. The nature of the insurgency, including its strength, capabilities, tactics, and strategic objectives;

2. The terrain challenges posed by the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and North- West Frontier Province (NWFP), and

3. Current and potential Pakistani military capabilities.

[omarali50]

There may be situations where immovable objects face unstoppable forces with tragic results. The writers of this report assume that "countries and their interests" are natural and eternal categories, but such may not be the case. I would submit that Pakistan has already lost control of the Islamic Emirate and does not possess the military force or the political will to reconquer it on its own terms. Eventually, it will settle for a strategy of holding the "settled areas" and I would not be surprised if one day the indo-tibetan border police is being asked to come and help defend Islamabad. Stranger things have happened. The US will inshallah create a reasonable facsimile of a regime in Afghanistan and this regime will contend with the Islamic Emirate for territory and influence for the next generation or so. China, US, EU, even India, will continue to subsidise corrupt "pro-western" regimes in Pakistan and Afghanistan and will wait for time to work its healing magic. This is the best case scenario. Other possibilities include the humiliation and withdrawal of the great satan, followed by an orgy of violence and an expanded Islamic emirate surrounded by India, China and other local powers and at war with all of them. OR, if India and China fail to cooperate, China may use rump Pakistan or the islamic emirate to humiliate and destroy India, but will be left holding the most explosive bag in history, allowing the United States to recover from its near-terminal decline while China tries (unsuccessfully) to pacify Southwest Asia. OR, we could see the triumph of rationality and peace will reign as Pakhtuns buy Chinese HD players to play Indian movies while eating Ramen noodles. My apologies for being flippant, but its than kind of day...

[davidbfpo]

The role of the Pakistani Army Chief of Staff is pivotal in Pakistan's future and as an indicator what may happen internally. So it is no surprise to see the current CoS General Kayani may have his two year term of office extended beyond the compulsory retirement age; not to overlook the ISI chief and the Chief of General Staff too.

http://watandost.blogspot.com/2010/0...ef-kayani.html

The move has been made to ensure continuity in Pakistan’s policy on the war on terror and it also has a nod from Washington as the Army has achieved remarkable successes in the war on terror under General Kayani’s command.

I have a longer analytical comment via an email that will posted soon.

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to Zenpundit for his exposure of the Q&A session Secretary Gates had with a Pakistani military forum on his visit recently: Zen's comments:http://zenpundit.com/?p=3338

Zen's closing, calm remarks:

Pakistan, or at least an autonomous part of its military, is our enemy in Afghanistan and have been since 2001. Let’s accept that reality and revise our policies accordingly. Being an enemy of the United States ought to come with some costs rather than aid packages.

A (partial?) transcript of the Q&A
:http://duckofminerva.blogspot.com/20...-national.html

The frank talk was apparently a bit heated. At one point, one of the Pakistani military officers asked Secretary Gates point blank: "Are you with us or against us?"

The transcript reveals a deep level of distrust between the US and the Pakistani military. It also shows that some junior officers of the Pakistani military do not take ownership of their government's current offensives against militants in the North West Frontier Province and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan.

This could fit on the thread 'The US & others working with Pakistan (a joined up thread)', but fits here too:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=2313

[davidbfpo]

I posted earlier in this thread some comments / analysis by an observer of the Pakistani Army's ways and attached is their latest - just in time as the succession issue has come to the fore. The author is identified, he is not a SWC member, his work has appeared on SWJ before and has given his permission for this item to appear here.

[omarali50]

Admiral Fasih Bokhari is a former chief of naval staff and a respected and upright officer (fired in 1999 for demanding a court of inquiry into Pervez Musharraf's botched Kargil operation). He now writes for newspapers and here is his latest. I urge you to read it very carefully, since a better summary of the default Pak army strategic view cannot be found:

http://paktribune.com/news/index.shtml?231678

[tequila]

The complete lack of self-reflection combined with paranoia and wistful thinking is quite remarkable. I could waste a good half hour pointing out the historical amnesia implicit in his summation of Bangladeshi independence alone.

If this is representative of Pakistani civil society leadership, then it is indeed on the way to failed state status.

[Hacksaw]

Speechless

Omarali... indeed if this is the prevailing view.... hmmm... revealing

Tequilla... couldn't agree more

[omarali50]

I would not describe it as the dominant "civil society" view. It is very much the dominant military view, though the serving generals know enough about where their money comes from to be able to dissemble about it when needed. But its worth keeping in mind that this mindset is amazingly ignorant and naive about the world at large. This means its available for misuse by anyone who understands their psychology and has a more sophisticated understanding of the world. The true Jihadis do it best: the entire Jihadi operation is a tribute to the abiliity of a few Jihadi generals to get the whole high command to follow their suicidal policies while mindlessly repeating nonsense about the "complex strategic threat from India"....But this means the same people can also be manipulated by others. The Chinese do it. I am sure by now the Saudis do it very well. And who knows, Anne Patterson may have learned a trick or two as well. Its a farce and a tragedy of epic proportions...

[carl]

I'll add jaw-dropping to speechless and remarkable. This thing reads like it was written as a parody. There ought to be bugles blowing and drum rolls.

He comes straight out and says the U.S. is the enemy, they are fighting us and the Pakistani government lies like hell; or at least as straight out as anybody associated with the Pakistani gov and army can be.

[Ray]

Admiral Fasih Bokhari is a former chief of naval staff and a respected and upright officer (fired in 1999 for demanding a court of inquiry into Pervez Musharraf's botched Kargil operation). He now writes for newspapers and here is his latest. I urge you to read it very carefully, since a better summary of the default Pak army strategic view cannot be found:

http://paktribune.com/news/index.shtml?231678

I love the Pakistanis 'intelligentsia'!

In their frustration of not being able to prove that as a Muslim majority nation as they claimed would give them the power to be free and independent and powerful they have failed so badly and so miserably.

India have 'overhauled' Pakistan many times over and has no regret that those who felt that they would be better off with a new country based on religion left.

Therefore, only dreams and hallucination is all that they can cling to!

But this is wonderful and humorous:

To emerge as an international economic power India will one day beg Pakistan for reach into Iran, Central Asia , and beyond to Russia and Europe. India will beg Bangladesh for reach into South East and East Asia.

Check who is begging!

[SWJ Blog]

The Growth of Islamism in the Pakistan Army

Entry Excerpt:



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[SWJ Blog]

The Growth of Islamism in the Pakistan Army

[davidbfpo]

Once again it is time for a Pakistani decision on who will Army Chief of Staff, so the occasional SWC contributor, Hamid Hussain, a USA-based analyst has written an article on the choices and more. Attachment no longer works - my fault.

[davidbfpo]

Last week the Army Chief of Staff for six years, General Kiyani announced his retirement; effective on the 29th November 2013, link to his official statement:http://ispr.gov.pk/front/main.asp?o=...date=2013/10/6

FP.com has an optimistic article on the implications, although from this faraway vantage point his successor has quite a lot to do:

The next army chief will have his work cut out for him. In addition to convincing the reluctant civilian government to continue the fight against the Pakistani Taliban, he will have to help manage the Afghanistan endgame as U.S. troops withdraw and a presidential election take place next year.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...stan?page=full

The civilian government have not announced their choice of Kiyani's successor; FP.com does comment on their contenders.

[davidbfpo]

Announced today, the next Chief of Army Staff (COAS) will be Lt Gen Raheel Sharif and the Chairman Joint Chief of Staff Committee (CJCSC) will be Lt Gen Rashad Mahmood. Taken from:http://dawn.com/news/1058927/pm-meet...cjcsc-expected

FP in the last post thought:

Raheel Sharif....is possibly the safest choice politically for Nawaz Sharif, as Raheel Sharif enjoys a close relationship with one of the prime minister's confidants.

[omarali50]

He appears to have picked the two least aggressive generals for the two jobs. May not be the best decision for an army at war...