Pakistani Army commentary

[davidbfpo]

A commentary on Anglo-Pakistani military relations by a Pakistani analyst @ RUSI, which is sub-titled:

The long relationship between the British and Pakistani armies is transforming, from one based mostly on pomp, ceremony and personal friendships, to one based on shared strategic interests.

Link:https://rusi.org/sites/default/files...alam_final.pdf

Personally I found the article strange and concluded that it will be the Pakistanis who are chuckling at this relationship.

Hat tip to WoTR for this first-hand account of an officially sponsored trip by American analysts to North Waziristan, which sees things differently. It ends with:

Indeed, one of the deepest disconnects in U.S.-Pakistan relations is rooted in threat perceptions. The Haqqani Network is America’s enemy and Pakistan’s asset. The Pakistani Taliban is also America’s enemy — but an enemy of much greater priority for Pakistan. This fundamental divide was thrown into sharp relief on a visit to a restive locale that provided a tantalizing glimpse of how much better things could become — but also a humbling reminder about the fragility of the progress that has been made there.

Link:https://warontherocks.com/2017/12/pr...th-waziristan/

[davidbfpo]

A puzzling article by a former Pakistani diplomat in an Indian newspaper; the full title being 'From key Pakistani general to ISIS terrorist ‘killed’ in Jihad, the chilling saga of Shahid Aziz'. It starts with:

It is very unusual for retired senior officers of a professional military to end up fighting alongside militants attacking soldiers they once commanded. But the recently reported saga of retired Lt. General Shahid Aziz — whose 37-year service in the Pakistan army included postings as director-general military operations, chief of general staff from October 2001 to December 2003, and commander of the IV Corps in Lahore from December 2003 to October 2005 — points to the hazard of allowing ideology to supercede professionalism in a modern military.

Other officers get a mention too - for being wayward.
Link:https://theprint.in/opinion/from-key...id-aziz/63221/

[omarali50]

According to anecdotal reports, General Shahid Aziz disappeared about a year ago and there are rumors he has been killed (most likely in Syria, maybe in Afghanistan) while indulging a passion for Jihad His son (who is a retired army officer) has denied he is on Jihad (claiming he is in some remote part of Africa on tabligh (Islamic preaching or dawa) and cannot be contacted). One theory is that he is indeed dead, but the family has been told to try and draw this out and then claim a death in remote Africa or some such. This would probably work well in the age of Dr Livingstone, but seems a bit shaky in this day and age.
Still, it is possible he may turn up alive. Nobody is willing to go on record with any real details at this time it seems. (Musharraf set this particular ball rolling by casually mentioning in an interview that Shahid Aziz was crazy and had gone to Syria and got himself killed there; he was on Musharraf's team, but after retirement he became very Islamist and wrote a book very critical of Musharraf so they are no longer friends)

[davidbfpo]

This book featuring a long retired ISI Director and a ret'd RAW Director has aroused controversy in Pakistan, with their ex-soldier being stopped from leaving and is to face an inquiry. Below is a review by Hamid Hussain, our occasional contributor.

The full title is: Spy Chronicles: RAW, ISI and the Illusion of Peace. A. S. Dulat, Assad Durrani and Aditya Sinha (Delhi: Harper Collins), 2018.

This book is neither a memoir nor an organized attempt to explain a theory. It is essentially a transcript of conversations. It covers India Pakistan relations, Kashmir, Afghanistan and other general regional and international topics. Two informed individuals from rival countries engaged in a candid conversation and some of their views are not fully in line with the official stance of their respective countries.
In view of unresolved issues between India and Pakistan, there have been several international attempts to bring high former officials of both countries together for dialogue. One effort was to bring former intelligence officials of both countries together. This effort called ‘Intel Dialogue’ was organized by the University of Ottawa. Dulat and Durrani met each other during these ‘Track II’ efforts and developed a kind of friendship.
A brief background of Durrani’s career will help readers to understand where he is coming from. He is a gunner officer with no previous intelligence experience. His career up to the rank of Major General was typical of any career officer with normal command, staff and instructional appointments. He is considered a cerebral officer by his peers. In 1988, he was appointed Director Military Intelligence (DMI) by General Mirza Aslam Beg. In 1990, when Benazir Bhutto’s first government was sacked by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan, DG ISI Lieutenant General Shamsur Rahman Kallue was also removed from his post. Beg asked Durrani to have additional charge of ISI and for a while Durrani was running both agencies. When a new DMI was appointed, Durrani became the permanent DG ISI, where he served until March 1992. His next two assignments were Director General Military Training & Evaluation and Commandant of National Defence College (now University). In 1993, he was retired from service by army Chief General Abdul Waheed Kakar. In 1994, during the second Benazir Bhutto government, he was appointed ambassador to Germany (May 1994 – May 1997) and during General Musharraf’s government; he served as ambassador to Saudi Arabia (2000-2002). Durrani is not new to controversy. In 1990, he distributed money to politicians of an opposition alliance against Benazir. This was later known as the Asghar Khan case and the Supreme Court is currently hearing this case.
In Pakistan, retired officers are usually kept at arm’s length from current events. They may gather some general information when interacting with serving officers during re-unions. In general, General Head Quarters (GHQ) discourages the interaction of retired senior officers with serving officers outside of normal accepted norms. If someone shows indiscretion, then a message is quietly sent and many serving officers will avoid such senior officers like plague as it can jeopardize their career. Durrani retired from active service twenty-five years ago; therefore he is not privy to any classified information or details of current policies. He was part of the ‘Track II’ parleys. In some cases, members of Track II parleys are given informal general briefing about policy lines but in his case no such briefing was ever provided by GHQ. His credentials make him a good spokesperson for army’s point of view to international audience but there was never any direct line of communication with GHQ.
Durrani is candid about his approach. He admits that after retirement, he was exposed to the views of other people. He reflected on the difference between his own information and what others said. The conversation in this book is simply the outcome of that reflection. Others have the right to agree or disagree with his point of view.
Dulat and Durrani advocate for renewed efforts to start the India and Pakistan dialogue. The most interesting part is their perceptions about the American role in India-Pakistan rivalry. Durrani believes that American policies have had a negative impact on Pakistan and the country’s interests clash with American interests especially in the Afghanistan theatre. He views Washington’s closeness to Delhi as detrimental to Pakistan. On the other hand, Dulat believes that Washington still has a soft corner for Pakistan and if only Washington can steer away from Pakistan then Pakistan may change its policy. Dulat also believes that American defence establishment has a close relationship with the Pakistan army and this gives Pakistan a distinct advantage. In some cases, Washington comes in to defend Pakistan asking India to show restraint. Dulat recalls a 2003 meeting with CIA’s Director of Counter Terrorism Cofer Black who told him that ‘we are putting pressure on the Pakistanis to behave, so we hope you won’t do anything silly’.
On 03 March 2016, Pakistan announced arrest of a RAW officer Kulbhushan Jhadav. He was operating from Iran and Pakistan announced his arrest when Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was visiting Pakistan with a high-powered delegation. Iran and Pakistan have problems on various issues but usually governments try not to make them public to avoid deterioration of relations. Army Chief General Raheel Sharif (2013-2016) in his meeting with Rouhani raised this issue of RAW using Iranian soil. This was the right forum to raise the issue but surprisingly the army leaked this to the media. In a press conference, Rouhani was put on the spot and asked if this issue was discussed. Iran has very close relations with India and Tehran walks a fine line. Rouhani while admitting there were talks on wide ranging issues denies that this issue was discussed. Army’s spokesperson, Lieutenant General Asim Saleem Bajwa promptly released the transcript of the meeting to public while Rouhani was still in Pakistan embarrassing Iran. Durrani is of the view that ‘we should not have broached it with the poor Iranian President while he was an honoured guest. And it was embarrassing that this faux pas was committed by the army chief’. He does not elaborate on why it was done? I have my own opinion based on information at that time and later developments. At that time, many Pakistani officers expressed surprise to me and were confused about the army’s logic as these actions looked like a deliberate effort to sabotage Rouhani’s visit. I had come to know some early but not clear information in the spring of 2016 about Raheel’s parleys with new Saudi leadership. Pakistani army chiefs visited Saudi Arabia and meet with senior Royal family members and this is nothing new but in case of Raheel something was different. Raheel was retiring in November 2016 and working on either getting an extension or a Field Marshal rank. The Saudis were working on an anti-Iran alliance and negotiating with Raheel to lead it. There was clearly a conflict of interest case where a serving army Chief was negotiating his own lucrative post-retirement package with a foreign government. In my view, Raheel did this to earn some brownie points with Saudis. He finally got a golden parachute from Saudis right after his retirement.

[davidbfpo]

This book is record of conversations on a wide range of topics and one can only talk about general themes and not specific details. In such conversations one can miss on details as it is simply memory recall and no time to confirm details by either consulting published material to talking to an informed colleague. In criticizing July 2007 Lal Masjid episode, Durrani is of the view that ‘wrong force and wrong means were used’. He states that Rangers were used who burnt down the place. He argues that instead Special Forces should have been used. This operation can be criticized on many grounds but not on this one. Rangers were deployed only in outer cordon with the task of sealing the area and establish holding points for those leaving the mosque. Operation was conducted by about 150 Special Service Group (SSG) troops commanded by Lieutenant Colonel Haroon Islam (3^rd Sindh Regiment). He was Commanding Officer (CO) of Zarrar Anti-Terrorist battalion of SSG. The role of SSG is clear from the casualty list of security forces. Of eleven killed in action, ten were SSG including Islam and one Ranger and of forty-four wounded, thirty-three were SSG, three Rangers and remaining regular army soldiers. Two months later, a suicide bomber took the revenge on Zarrar battalion when he blew himself inside a highly secured area killing 22 SSG soldiers. (This information is from various sources with first had knowledge and confirmed by a senior officer who was in a position at that time to know the details.)
Durrani’s views on Osama Bin Laden raid are nothing new. He has expressed his theory years ago that Pakistan army brass may have made a deal with Americans on this issue. This is his personal view although he does not have any concrete evidence. In my own conversations with dozens of officers, about half believe their own brass was in the loop while the other half believes they were in dark. Durrani mistakenly calls CIA sponsored vaccination program run by Dr. Shakeel Afridi as polio vaccination. It was Hepatitis B vaccination. Polio is administered orally while Hepatitis B vaccination is given by injection. Objective was that if a family member living in the compound was given vaccination injection, then the small amount of blood left in the needle could be used to test for DNA for positive identification. CIA had collected blood samples from Bin Laden’s family members in Saudi Arabia. If DNA matched from the sample collected from a family member in the compound then it would be certain that the ‘tall pacing man’ in the compound was Bin Laden.
Commenting on Brigadier Muhammad Yusuf and Mark Adkin’s book The Bear Trap, Durrani provides an interesting anecdote that is relevant to the upheaval caused by his own book. Durrani was head of ISI when book was published. Someone from his own organization asked if ‘we should get hold of the man, court martial him, issue a rebuttal?”. Durrani replied that ‘there must be 20 people who have read it but once we do something, 200 people will read it’. The timing of publication of his own book caused problems for GHQ. In normal circumstances, a few days of high pitched noise in electronic media and then everything evaporating in thin air as a more interesting and colourful election season is at hand. Army is very sensitive about its public image. Few days earlier, GHQ was very upset about Nawaz Sharif’s controversial statement and forced government to summon National Security Committee meeting and issue a strongly worded reprimand to Sharif. Now, GHQ had to take some action as people started to compare two cases. Hopefully with this action of GHQ, more people will read the book and make their own judgement.
Durrani was confident when asked about his institution’s possible reaction to his interaction with former RAW chief. He said, “they must have had enough confidence in my ability to hold my own’ and that ‘no one has ever accused me of indiscretion’. In this case, Durrani was proven wrong and within days of launch of the book, he was summoned to the headmaster’s office at GHQ. His name is placed on Exit Control List (ECL) and an inquiry committee headed by Lieutenant General will review his case. This will take some time and in the meantime, many more interesting topics will be in headlines and this issue will fade away. In the end, we will see whether headmaster simply gives a stern warning to the errant boy or decide on canning.
This book should be read by anyone interested in India Pakistan relations as it provides a window to thought process of members of intelligence communities of two countries. One can disagree with some of the opinions expressed by Durrani but I didn’t find any evidence that he broke the norms and divulged any classified information. Serious outside observers interested in India and Pakistan know much more than what is written in this book.

[davidbfpo]

No surprise a former Indian intelligence officer (known to the author) weighs in with a review and a devastating "taster":

At the same time, their remarks on current decision makers or ‘hawkish’ career foreign service off#icials (Part IV: Kabuki) might excite the media, but do not help either country in finding solutions.

Link:https://www.outlookindia.com/magazin...f-spies/300246

I'd heard of the close ISI-Taliban relationship, but missed a RAW defector to the USA in 2004:

Durrani claims that no ISI man had ‘def#ected’, like from RAW. Quite true. The last big defector, Rabinder Singh, could flee due to RAW’s own intransigence of not handing over the investigation to the IB. But then, no other official espionage agency has been in the swim with terrorists as the ISI. The classic example is ISI stalwart Col. Imam (Sul#tan Amir Tarar) who, along with Naseerullah Babar, had created the Taliban in 1994 with the help of then DGMO Pervez Musharraf, by giving them the entire Pakistani arms cache in Spin Boldak on the Pakistan-Afg#ha#ni#stan border.

A very short explanation:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabind...gence_officer)