When they are not committing human rights abuses, they collect bribes from poverty stricken Nigerians and share the proceeds after a day's work.



One begins to understand the level of animosity against the Nigerian police. The army is not far behind.

The other big news topic in Nigeria is Government's desire to remove the subsidy on petroleum products early next year. If it goes ahead there is potential for strikes and violence.

Despite the fact that we are Africa's largest oil exporter, we have no fully functional refinery, so government has to subsidise petroleum product importation. Nigeria spends $350 million monthly on subsidising the purchase of petroleum products (the distribution and sales of these products are handled by a cartel of businessmen with links to ex-generals and politicians).

Petroleum products impact seriously on the economy. Since electricity generation is low, the common man and businesses depend heavily on petrol/diesel driven generators. There is also a trust deficit between Government and the Nigerian people - the Nigerian Government has zero credibility.

The other news topic that got my attention was the threat by Nigerian veterans to blow up oil pipelines in response to non-payment of pension arrears.

Members of the Nigerian Military Pensioners Welfare Association (NMPWA) in the South-South region have threatened to blow up pipelines and disrupt the peace of the area if the Federal Government refuses to commence the payment of the 53 per cent pension arrears owed them for four years now.

In a statement signed by its secretary, Captain Don Pedro, and made available to LEADERSHIP in Port Harcourt, the group said the Federal Government was taking the veterans for a ride.

It said; “We have been trained in the art of warfare, we have knowledge of combat of any sort, and we can blow oil pipelines in the region and cripple the economy of the nation. We want to say that we can be more deadly than Boko Haram, so we should not be taken for granted.

“We are seriously disturbed that the federal government would acknowledge early this year that military pensioners are being owed 53 percent arrears only for nothing to be done or heard about it.
This threat points to a few uncomfortable facts:

1. The currency of power in Nigeria is money and violence, you use one to get another. The Niger Delta Militancy taught Nigerians that the only way to force the government's / oil companies hand was the threat of violence. The sudden urgency to address the appalling literacy rates in North-East Nigeria would not have happened without the threat of Boko Haram.

The percentage of children between six and 16 who have never attended school is highest in the North-east with states like - Borno 72 per cent, Yobe 58 per cent, Bauchi 52. You can work it out, Borno State (where 72% of children have not attended school is the epicenter of Boko Haram).

There are other groups willing and able to use violence to draw attention to their grievances. Expect them to appear in future.

2. The rank and file of the Nigerian Army are treated poorly and they mete out their frustration on the general public. Our news media tell stories about army pensioners who die while waiting in line to collect their pensions at Abuja. That is hardly the recipe for an effective fighting force.

I write on this blog not because I am an experienced military person, but because I am a relatively well informed Nigerian, deeply concerned about the situation in Nigeria and I believe that some powerful people in Washington might read this blog.

Nations must be allowed to evolve at their own pace. When a state of affairs simply becomes unsustainable and a ruling elite begins to lose legitimacy, then outside intervention may be more counter-productive than beneficial. This process is occurring in slow-motion in Nigeria.

Cast your minds back, if the United Nations intervened during the French Revolution, what impact would it have had on Western Civilisation and the course of history? Outside intervention, if not carefully managed, offers a veneer of legitimacy to an illegitimate ruling elite (Mubarak, Ben Ali, Saleh).

Enlightened self-interest, not altruism is the greatest driver of societal change. When the elite realises that the costs of bad governance greatly outweigh the benefits, then change happens. Western Governments are notorious for truncating this process (especially for friendly regimes, like Nigeria). When Western Governments promise to defray the costs of public goods like health care and education, there is very little motivation to push for internal reform.

Something is going on in Nigeria, it has the potential of being bigger than the Arab Spring - what it is, we don't know. What we know is that the current state of affairs is not sustainable.

Terrorism is not really Nigeria's problem.