Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[Ray]

With a country having 60% Shia and Iran next door there is no danger of Iraq ever going Sunni fundamentalist any time so---the Shia will not give up the current power they did not have for the last 60 or so years and they fight well as we learned via JAM and the Special Groups and Mahdi.

There is though a danger that Iraq splits into three separate countries and now the Sunni triangle has oil reserves thus a chance to develop alone if needed as did the Kurds.

Malaki was a fool for not sharing the wealth and reaching out--but he was always a dictator at heart and yes US military and State Dept types who were around him hid that fact as it endangered the overall mission which was to get out under the guise of "democracy".

Anything Obama does that kills Sunni civilians in the process will be viewed as a direct support to the Shia and Malaki and wins him absolutely nothing with the Sunni who are still at the heart of any solution there if anything it would stiffen their fighting as they will message to the Islamic world see it is the Sunni against the Shai and they are supported by the Americans.

Sunni's are still the majority Islamic grouping worldwide.

Just a question for your consideration since it appears that you have operated in the Middle East.

In the Middle East and Iran belt where oil is produced appears to be predominantly populated by the Shia. Is that correct?



If so, what is interplay between geopolitics and geostrategy in these events that are unfolding and did they impinge on the earlier events and its fallout thereof?

My apologies for this rather large map. (If it could be made smaller, then it will be fine. I am not very computer savvy).