The three-year extension given to Kayani did block off avenues of promotion to several aspirants, most of them Punjabis. Nevertheless, he seems reasonably well ensconced in power and has brought in officers of his choice and proven loyalty in key slots, both at the level of Corps Commands and Principal Staff Officers (PSOs), assuaging, in the process, the discontented lot of Punjabi Generals.
Lt.Gen Khalid Shamim Wyne had been brought in as Chief of General Staff only a few months earlier after a successful stint as Corps Commander in Quetta. Logically, this could have been seen as a stepping stone to the chief’s post. He has now been accommodated as a Four-Star General in the largely ceremonial post of Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC), giving a go-by to the convention of rotating this post between the army, navy and air force. Wyne will retire in October 2013, just before Kayani’s term ends. Another highly rated and well-connected officer, Lt Gen Sikander Afzal Burki has been sidelined in an extended foreign peace-keeping tenure in Liberia, which would take him to retirement in March 2011.The next senior, Lt Gen Javed Zia, has been sent to the XII Corps Command in Quetta, from where he should retire in September, 2011.
Like every other army chief before him, Kayani is proving no exception to the convention of favouring officers of his parent ‘arm,’ the Baloch regiment.
A clansman, Maj Gen Naushad Ahmed Kayani (Infantry) appears to have been favoured as the new Director General, Military Intelligence.
With almost three years still to run, it may be rather premature to assess who may emerge as a potential successor to Kayani. One of the most important Kayani appointments will be that of DG, ISI, in March 2011. Whoever comes in at this slot is likely to be a trusted acolyte, on the high road to further important positions.
After Kayani retires, the following Generals will be senior most — Lt Gen Asif Yasin Malik, currently XI Corps Commander, Peshawar, whose retirement date is March 31, 2014.Much would depend on how he handles the war against terror in FATA and what the Americans think of him.After him are the April 2014 retirees — Lt.Gen Waheed Arshad (Armoured Corps) who is highly rated and presently holding the crucial Chief of General Staff slot, and the Corps Commander, Lahore, Lt Gen Rashad Mehmood. Lahore has had a jinx associated with it as no Corps Commander from there has made it as Chief so far!
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