Here is an opinion in a blog by Bill Bishop that seems astute.
http://www.sinocism.com/archives/1539
Check out his conclusion 4. It says in so many words that the Chinese gov is running a game on us. Hu is well aware of the J-20 program's status, though he may not have been aware of the exact date of the test flight. That date may have been weather dependent.
I trust not at all the ability of senior, or junior, American officials to judge the reactions and state of mind of Chinese officials and politicians. That is like little leaguers up against pro ballplayers. I also think it highly unlikely that the Party has lost control of the military. They did to a small degree at Tiannemen (sic) Square and I've read they have worked to make sure it won't happen again.
It is futile to think we are going to talk the Chinese out of building up their military. They are doing this for their own purposes, not because a carrier sails about off Korea once in a while.
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