Gangs and Insurgencies

[GPaulus]

So I had this genius idea slap me in the head but it's so far out of my lane I don't even know how to put it together and what the law, bosses or public would have to say to shoot it down. One of the best things about A-stan when I was there is we had a couple of psy-ops guys attached to us and I have to say they did some great work. So the idea is to start a psy-ops campaign against known or suspected gang members. But like I said, just thinking out loud because it's out of my lane. Thoughts? Ideas?

Have you heard of a concept known as Dunbar's Number? Dunbar makes an argument to the upper limits of social organizations (gangs, terrorists, insurgencies, military operational units, etc). And, although his research was never geared to terrorist groups, insurgents or gangs, it may be effective when dealing with these elements. (Dunbar's research was done many years before Afghanistan, Iraq, Oklahoma City, 911, or other attacks)

Dunbar postulates that the absolute maximum group size would be 150. And that this high number could only exist for "social communities" with a very high incentive to remain together. For a group of this size to remain cohesive, Dunbar speculated that as much as 42% of the group's time would have to be devoted to social grooming. So your idea of Psy-Ops to play the end against the middle may have merit to fracture the insurgency cell (social community). The group might have to expend 80% of its energy trying to hold it together. Correspondingly, only groups under intense survival pressure, such as subsistence villages, nomadic tribes, and historical military groupings have, on average, achieved the 150-member mark.

Moreover, Dunbar noted that such groups are almost always physically close: "... we might expect the upper limit on group size to depend wholly on the degree of social dispersal in A-stan. In dispersed societies, individuals will meet less often and will thus be less familiar with each, so group sizes will be limited to local command and control and be smaller in size as a consequence." Thus, the 150-member group can only occur if there is an intense necessity to be united, i.e. due to intense survival, security, environmental and/or economic pressures. My guess would be that Psy-ops could develop a play geared at group sizes of 70 or less, and that the play could be very effective.