The "predictability" we carefully crafted over the past few generations in the Middle East arguably is the principal motivation for young men from a wide range of Muslim countries to act out violently against the US, but that on 9/11 or to travel to Iraq to fight us there, etc. A forced predictability sounds nice, but it comes with consequences.

As to stability, actually, as I think about it, I will clarify my position. It is not stability in Afghanistan that is important to the US, it is stability between Pakistan and India that is important to the US. That is arguably the biggest problem with our approach to Afghanistan, is that it has created a tremendous disruption of the uneasy stability that existed prior to our mucking around chasing terrorists.

Reconciliation that incorporates all Afghans equitably in the governance and opportunity of their country is best, but otherwise a homegrown solution that excludes either side is preferable to a US forced solution that excludes the Taliban side. A homegrown solution will achieve a stability that is maintained by that side; a US forced solution will require the US to keep it stable. Frankly, we have bigger fish to fry.

AQ is everywhere and nowhere, they can plan, organize and launch attacks from virtually anywhere. Events such as are occurring in Tunisia and Egypt, and rumbling in several other countries promises to rob AQ of much of the rationale that they have been able to leverage to motivate attacks on the US. Even if the Taliban gain control of Afghanistan and are willing to openly (which is highly unlikely) support AQ it will be a simple matter to launch strategic raids against such targets as they develop.

Bottom line is that there are people out there working to whip up a lot of very irrational fears; and as Churchill reminded a London populace being submitted to German terror attacks, "we have nothing to fear, but fear itself."

Our fears have launched us on some fools errands. Time to stop taking counsel of our fears and to start focusing on what is really important. Pak-India stability is important. An improved US-Iranian relationship is important. Getting our military re-postured so as to be a more effective deterrent of state activity that is counter to our interests is important. Defeating the Taliban or denying any particular piece of dirt to AQ? Not so much.

Others think similarly. George Friedman's "the Next Decade" takes a very similar stance for slightly different reasons. He does a good job of laying out the history of the geopolitics as well.