Bob, I dont get what is "artificial" about US intervention, but "natural" about Pakistani or Indian or Iranian intervention? Unless you mean that neighbors have a "natural" right to intervene but the distant USA does not? (that debate would lead on to others, as you can well imagine).
The distinction is not about "natural" vs "artificial". Its about knowing what you want and having some sort of plan to get it.
But I dont want to leave you with the impression that I think the ISI not only knows what it wants but that what it wants also makes good sense. I think it makes no sense at all for Pakistanis in general to wish that the US supported Afghan state should collapse into civil war....the blowback and the price paid by Pakistan will be astronomical. It would have made much more sense to use the opportunity afforded by the arrival of the US with big bucks and firepower to fundamentally change course in the region. America may have had its own (sometimes silly, maybe sometimes evil) notions of what it wants, but that doesnt mean it couldnt be used for some good for a change. A different Afghanistan and Pakistan were possible (not easy, but possible). The hardcore rejectionists in the Jihadi party were on the back foot. Their plan for the region was going to lead to endless war and much bigger disasters. It was a plan idiots in GHQ had supported because of their juvenile notions of national identity, Indian-threat, strategic depth and other bull#### (much of the mess can be ascribed to teaching "strategy" to overgrown kids in NDU, with no adult supervision)...they had a chance to change course. Instead, Musharraf and company opted for a "lets put one foot in every boat" strategy and messed it up.
A particular strand (and its only one strand, but a dangerous and deep rooted one) of Muslim separatism and "the ideology of Pakistan" is also involved. The whole complicated mess has other aspects, too numerous to cover in one post...
I can see that our "priors" are very different. All I can do right now is hint at some of the differences. In all such debates, the real differences lie deeper and only become apparent over time with much back and forth. And then too, maybe only to third parties who are not already invested in either position. In short, I have to run. But more later..
Meanwhile, see:
http://www.google.com/#hl=en&sugexp=...w=1280&bih=894
and:
http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy-a...w=1280&bih=894
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