I believe that GIRoA has pretty firmly established that they have no intent to expand governance beyond the control of the former Northern Alliance, or to share in any way with those who we helped them to displace. So long as we are dedicated to protecting the status quo with ISAF I believe that they will tell us what we want to hear, and then generally let it ride.

Perhaps if we left they would get serious about talks to avoid open civil war; but that is impossible to predict.

The key thing for the West to stay focused on is that we went there to punish AQ, and that the key to evicting AQ from AF/PAK lies with the Taliban, not with GIRoA or Pakistan. Nieither government can, nor sees it in their interest to do so. Efforts to preserve GIRoA or create some sort of mini-me modern state in Afghanistan are well intended, but I don't see how they are cost effective or helpful toward reaching our primary goal.