We have known knowns, unknown knowns...
Some familiarity with the region and its peoples and with the US and its people leads me to not discount the neighbors but to place them in minor impediment rather than deterrent status. Similarly, some time observing the US and its actions in the world as well as those of China and Russia leads me to place them as significant impediments but -- even collectively -- not as total deterrents. Not even, not ever...
We do what we think we need to do and have always done so. If anything, we are way too prone to act precipitously and / or to over do things, not back off or fail to act.
Of course, it occasionally takes an inordinate amount of time to get ourselves in gear...
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