In three months they are going to attempt something very dynamic. If they pull it off, it gets very interesting and dangerous.

1. Any attempt on the life of Jonathan by Boko Haram will be interpreted as an attempt by the Northern Muslim elite to terminate his regime. There will be horrible reprisal attacks.

2. Jonathan is an Ijaw from the Niger Delta and is quite close to Niger Delta militants (he helped broker the last cease fire). Expect Nigeria's crude oil production to be affected if he is harmed.

3. For all their noise and violence Boko Haram is yet to cross the River (Niger) - i.e. they haven't posed a direct threat to Southern Nigeria, yet. If they do this, they would have crossed the River. Crossing the River means that all bets are off.