South China Sea and China (2011-2017)

[JMA]

JMA,

How is it in the interest of the smaller states in the region to confront China in regards to Tibet? What do they gain from that?

Diplomatic confrontation of a bully is about all they are able to do. The other reason is that the fate of Tibet awaits the weaker states as they are gobbled up in the not too distant future. It is probably wise for these states to decide right now wether they are going to capitulate or not go down without a fight.

As to Taiwan, it is part of China. Certainly due to the geo-strategy of where Taiwan sits, it is a vital component of any effort to contain China proper to the mainland; so if that were still our strategy then Taiwan remains vital. Certainly due to our relationship with Nationalist China we owed them our protection from being brutally crushed in some final apocalyptic battle between Mao and Chiang. But there is little risk of that happening now. To update US policy regarding the peaceful reintegration of Taiwan is not well discussed with emotionally loaded terms such as "abandon." Personally, I believe our old mission there is complete and it is time to move on to more effective policies that enable the US and China to better explore our shared interests, rather than butt heads over our odd policy regarding Taiwan. Reasonable minds differ on this topic. Playground taunts and misplaced concepts of loyalty should not shape foreign policy.

Besides, it is a sucker's bet: The best the US could ever do in a conflict over Taiwan is reset the conditions of failure. The worst that China could do is go toe to toe with the big guy, suffer a tactical loss, but gain most likely at the gain of a significant strategic advantage. Particularly if they happen to point out the modern vulnerabilities of Aircraft carriers or long-range flight operations against a sophisticated foe prepared specifically to deal with the same.

I have long seen Taiwan as the flashing red cape that the Chinese Matador waves at the young, strong, American bull. For now China profits from this game, and besides, the Matador needs the bull. For now. Ultimately we all know what happens to the bull. Strong and instinctive he does not realize he is losing until he has already lost. Then the Matador kills the bull. But we are not a bull. We should be able to recognize the cape for what it is, and focus on what is important for us, not what China wants us to focus upon. We play their game for now, but think they are playing ours. We remain the bull.

Good explanation Bob. This exactly why all nations (plus the remote states of Hawaii and Alaska) must realise that they can place no trust in a relationship the USA. For the US everything is negotiable... and they will sell one time allies down the river without conscience.

I suggest the Chinese like to play the game. They know that the US is already a spent force (intellectually and psychologically) and when they have built up their navy they will just shoulder the US out of the way with barely a shot being fired.

The US 'bull' is an exhausted and an all but impotent shadow of its former self.

I would suggest you take a little time to study how the British empire collapsed when they being virtually bankrupt and stabbed in the back by their supposed ally the USA 'lost the will to maintain their empire'. It was as much a case of psychological exhaustion than anything else.

Then I would suggest you look at how the Brits at the height of their power maintained the balance of power in Europe by supporting those at risk from the larger more aggressive states.

Then fast forward to the post Soviet era and learn what the smaller vulnerable states to Russian hegemonic intentions are attempting to do to prevent being once again being gobbled up by an expansionist Russia.

The bottom line is that all the smart guys in DC quite frankly don't have a clue. Its pretty sad really.