South China Sea and China (2011-2017)

[Bob's World]

JMA:

Point taken on never saying never.

Bob's World:

Here is a hypothetical for you. You probably know what is coming. Imagine a situation where Red China is going to, no threatening to, but going to violently invade and conquer Taiwan. The Taiwanese, after a vote 90% to 10%, have decided to meet violence with violence in order to preserve their independence. The Taiwanese then ask us to comply with treaty obligations and help them fight the Red Chinese invasion. That is it. That is the situation, nothing more or less.

What are you going to tell them?

Carl,

First, and most importantly, there are no "treaty obligations" for the US to defend Taiwan. Period. I think you are referring to the old treaty that ended in 1980. (This is a biased, but I believe fairly factually accurate laydown: http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/20...nse_huang.aspx)

Second, this is an internal Chinese matter. That is our official position.

Third, the US is probably the most important economic partner for both parties and controls the seas that both receive and ship all manner of goods through. We have all kinds of leverage beyond simply racing into the middle of someone else's internal dispute. How would you have felt if Great Britain had sent in a massive force to prevent the US from reconsolidating the nation during the civil war? Do think there would not have been a century of conflict following, as half a dozen weak nations came to be where the US exists today? Not our fight, and we have no legal obligation to make it our fight.