China's Emergence as a Superpower (till 2014)

[Dayuhan]

Bob's World pretty much said the same when he wrote,

US influence rises on the tide of Chinese power.

I'm not actually sure that US influence is rising in the area. Certainly many of the players are trying to influence the US, with varying and generally limited degrees of success, but where has US influence gained... at least if we define "influence" as the ability to get people to do things that you want them to do that they would not have done on their own? Over whom has our influence grown?

In many ways we're on new ground (or waters), and it is dangerously misleading to assume these incidents don't have new meaning in today's world. China's actions, more than any others that I can currently discern, have prompted a regional arms race. Maybe that is good for those who produce the arms, and maybe the arms race will result in more stability rather than less. If you need to deal with a state that has a credible military, then diplomacy usually becomes more appealing.

Is there a "regional arms race"? Who's racing? The Vietnamese have been spending steadily for a long time, but they aren't really in an "arms race" with China. The Philippines is one of the lowest military spenders on the planet (as % of GDP), even with two significant insurgencies to deal with. Elsewhere in SE Asia I don't see anything resembling an arms race. Most of the countries in the region have been modernizing their militaries to some extent, but not to a greater extent than similarly emerging nations do anywhere else in the world.

The only SE Asian country that seems to be gearing up for potential conflict with China is Vietnam, understandable given the history. Even there, it looks like they aim not to be able to go head to head with China, but to convince the Chinese that conflict would be more costly than it's worth. The subs are the most visible item, but the Vietnamese have also invested heavily in land-based missile systems that could be a real threat to Chinese shipping in the event of conflict.

I don't have a crystal ball, but the future will not solely be determined by U.S. or China policy, a lot of other nations have a vote.

Very much true; this is not about the US facing off with China and others taking sides.

The US Vietnam naval exercise produced caution on China.

If that is not help, what is?

Did anything produce caution on the part of China? Who said the Chinese were being cautious? I thought they were being reckless and engaging in brinksmanship? Can't be both...

I doubt that the Chinese are much concerned over US/Vietnamese joint exercises, any more than they are concerned with US/Philippine exercises. They know the US isn't going to take sides on SCS territorial claims; the US has said so many times.

Nothing wrong in siding with the US.

As I said above, I don't see anyone "siding with the US". The US is a rather peripheral player in this picture; it's not like there's a "US side" and a "China side" and nations have to line up with one or the other. A few countries are trying to maneuver the US into taking their side, but the US doesn't seem keen on doing that, understandably.

Now that is interesting. It raises the question of how good the Indian Navy submarine service is. Ray, do you know?

If even a fraction of what we read about the state of the Russian Navy is true, the Vietnamese are likely better off learning from the Indians.

Even as all this goes on, we see one possible approach to energy exploration issues...

http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx...bCategoryId=63

Philex eyes Chinese partner in Recto Bank

MANILA, Philippines - The group of businessman Manuel Pangilinan is negotiating with one of China’s biggest firms for possible oil and gas exploration in Recto Bank, which is near the disputed Spratly Islands.

Highly placed sources said Pangilinan flew to Beijing a few days ago to meet with officials of the state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corp. for a possible joint venture in Recto Bank in Western Palawan. CNOOC is China’s biggest offshore oil and gas producer.

The Pangilinan-led Philex Petroleum is also in talks with other foreign oil industry giants for the development of the resource-rich Recto Bank. Sources also said prospects for a China project are high for Philex-controlled Forum Energy Plc....