China's Emergence as a Superpower (till 2014)

[Bill Moore]

Posted by Fuchs

A couple countries in the region have come to new prosperity, that's likely a major driver of whatever "arms race" happens in East Asia.

For some irrational reason, the supposed need for military expenditures does not correspond so much with actual threats (that's mostly lip service), but with fiscal strength.

Just look at Greece - suddenly 25% less need for national defence expenditures.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f5f1d...#axzz1uKrb7GDV

In a report released on Friday, the committee says: “Despite being Europe’s economic powerhouse, and having a large defence budget in absolute terms, Germany does not pull its weight in military operations.”

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0aab4...#axzz1uKrb7GDV

The IISS noted that Asia was in the throes of a classic arms race between China and other states, reflecting rapid economic growth and the strategic uncertainty that dominates the region.

Most of the Asian nations mentioned have been expanding economically for years, and didn't increase their defense spending until relatively recently. While a lag time between economic expansion and defense spending is reasonable, many Asian nation, like many European nations, have been reluctant to increase defense spending fearing it could impact their economic growth. They, like many European nations, relied on the U.S. and other powers to underwrite security in the region. What changed? Why the surge in defense spending?

East Asian nations apparently don't think they have a partner that will underwrite their security, and/or as the AMB of Australia said every nation in the region has a disputed territorial claim in the South China Sea, so once again this isn't just about China.

It is far from irrational to correlate defense spending with defense concerns. Agreed it is hard to spend more on defense when you're broke, but Germany managed to do so prior to WWII, so I think it is a combination of economic ability and strategic concerns.