South China Sea and China (2011-2017)

[Ray]

My queries are basically since I am getting conflicting signals from your posts.

Given your posts on the issue of China, US and Philippines, the approach taken by you was to rubbish the idea that Philippines was not concerned about China’s aggressive moves in the SCS.

The links to international and Filipino media were appended to indicate the views contrary to yours were also rubbished.

Logically seen, that left you as the sole authority on Philippines and its activities.

It will be appreciated that under that situation it left you the sole expert on Philippines, reinforced by your assertion that as an expat there of long standing, your views were but, for the want of a better expression, the Gospel Truth.

Personally, I would have loved to accept that but for the fact that you tend to change tack and that leaves a wake of confused contradictions.

While indeed you would have the ‘pulse’ of the people, but one wonders how far the international and the Philippines media are not aware of what they write and the veracity of the impression conveyed that you alone are the judge and ‘in the know’.

Further, in your posts, you repeatedly give the impression that China is not a major issue for Philippines. You claim that it was the Moro insurgency that was the primary concern and now you claim, in addition, it is corruption and inadequacy of the govt. To quote you - ( I also think you'd find that a lot more Filipinos would see the corruption and inadequacy of their own government as a greater threat than China.)

If China was not a major issue for Philippines why are they, out of the blue, adding naval vessels to their fleet, albeit old? Or scouting around for foreign fighter jets?



Philippines to Buy Military Jets Amid Sea Dispute With China
The government could buy new training jets for between $400 and $800 million per squadron and upgrade the planes to fighters, Aquino told Bombo Radyo today. The seller would be a “progressive nation” and not the U.S., the Philippines’ main ally, he said. A squadron includes between 16 and 24 jets.
“It may be from Europe, or somewhere nearer,” Aquino told Bombo Radyo. “That’s what the Armed Forces of the Philippines is studying to make it more economical.”
http://chinausfocus.com/u-s-news/phi...te-with-china/



It could not be because of the Moro insurgency since that has been going on for quite sometimes and if it were the Moros, then this addition would have been done much earlier and not now, all of a sudden!

Therefore, given the international media and even the local news reports and the flurry in beefing up of the Philippines Military, it does indicate that, for some reason that you have not enunciated as to why you want to downplay the China issue, that your assumptions that China is not a major threat is not quite in order.

While I concede that you are in situ, but then to believe that the international media and the activities of the Philippine Govt in modernising (if that is the word) its armed forces are rubbish, it would be a bit too stretched for acceptance or belief!

I don't think you RC. I certainly don't remember saying any such thing. Who is this "they" of whom you speak? The Filipinos? All of 'em?

Certainly there's widespread suspicion of US motives, and general discomfort with having foreign forces around. For some its a major issue, for some there's more of a tradeoff involved. As I said above, permanent basing is a politically toxic issue that nobody is even willing to propose. Deployments short of permanent basing... opinions vary. So far they've been tolerated, though with objections.

US deployments to date have focused primarily on one segment of the Moro rebellion, and not the most important one.

I have no idea as to what is ‘RC’. You may not remember, but if you care to go through this thread and the one about China Superpower, you would find having said so, directly and indirectly.

I have also given a quote of what you said in the post that you have replied which give sthe essnce of your contention. Do have a look at that.

No nation would like foreign countries to establish bases on their territory. That is nothing new.

The US, in all probability, based troops against the Moro insurgents, but to believe that they are not prepared for contingencies other than the Moro would be mistaken. US Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain, basically to ensure that the sealanes are clear in the Persian Gulf. However, should the need be, they are also geared to take on Iran in a more direct role. Or would they be sitting idle in a confrontation with Iran?

US has based troops in Philippines on a ‘rotational basis’. What does that mean? Semantics for permanent basing.

It is not that the Philippines has tolerated the US forces based there. Philippines has no options. It is either having a benign US or a fire breathing Dragon!

Notwithstanding your assertion, all activities, to include beefing up the military and the media reports, indicate that it is China which is the Number One issue and not the Moros or the corruption or inadequacies.

Unless you could indicate with links to the contrary, your contentions would not be correct even by a slim chance.

You see what you want to see. Who are you talking about when you say "Philippines is now looking at China"? The government? The populace? Everyone? I think you'd find that perceptions of "threat #1" vary depending on who you talk to. I also think you'd find that a lot more Filipinos would see the corruption and inadequacy of their own government as a greater threat than China.

As above.

When I speak of the Philippines, I do mean not only the Govt but the informed (as gleaned from the local media and appended here)

I take it that the Government of Philippines is responsible for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Philippines. Obviously, if they are refurbishing their Military with acquired naval vessels and scouting around for fighter jets, it is obviously not a dog and pony show (to use an Americanism) they are organising!

I would be immensely surprised if the people of Philippines who, as you say are concerned solely with corruption and inadequacies of their Govt and Moros, would sit still and not protest such needless spending on Defence. Their silence proves that they also feel that China is a threat. I am merely going by logic. You have to prove that this logic is wrong!

I wouldn't expect much from ASEAN, beyond a very diplomatic statement. As I've said before, ASEAN could exert considerable economic influence if they chose to, greater than their military influence: combined ASEAN GDP is similar to that of India and growing fast, and they do a lot of business with China. ASEAN working in concert is not so easy to organize; different members have very different priorities.

When a threat looms all close ranks.

The Chinese hegemonic pursuits have not really regaled the ASEAN. They are treading softly, but they are watching with great concern the moves by China. Militarily, they are no match for China. But should China misstep, their united pacific stance would make China lose face and that would be a big blow to China.

Who do you see "downgrading their internal issues"?

I took it that you, being the expert on Philippines, said that Moros were the No 1 threat.

But given the situation between the Philippines and China, and giving the due to your expert opinion that China is no threat, I stated that the Philippines must have downgraded the internal issues and given priority to Chinese activities or else why the brouhaha in the media and sudden US interest?

It was in deference to your expertise even though the events and the news prove otherwise to your expert opinion that I stated ‘downgrading of internal threat’, when it was obvious to any observer that Chinese hegemonic pursuits were getting too close for comfort.

Depends on what the foreign threat is threatening. Look at it from the perspective of the Philippine elite. The Chinese are threatening to push in on fishing grounds and potential energy resources. The Moros want to dismember the country. The NPA want to hang you from the nearest lamp-post. What threat concerns you most?

Good point.

I would feel that not being enslaved or pushed around with negative ramifications by a foreign power (China) would be the first priority, whether one was the elite or the poor beggarman!

Not really that great of an escalation. Chinese and Vietnamese fishing boats frequent that area often, and as stated above the season is ending soon and there will be a pullout. Just making a bit of a point.

Good that you feel it was all a charade!

Rather silly of them to keep everyone on tenterhooks.