Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
Sorry Dayuhan. The short exchange between me and the Cuyahoga Kid was pretty clear and plain. Nothing else I can do to clarify it.
Sorry, I'm not seeing it. Possibly I'm just dense. Why would the Chinese blockade Taiwan unless they were actually prepared for a full-scale war with the US, a war with enormous risk and not much potential gain for them? Why would they go into a war in which they know their antagonist can inflict enormous damage on them without ever coming within range of most of their weapons? A war that could potentially go nuclear? To gain what?

Do you assume the Chinese to be irrational, or unskilled at weighing profit and risk?

To enter into a blockade, the Chinese would have to be either absolutely 100% sure that there would be no response, or absolutely 100% sure that they could win a war. That kind of certainty is a tough thing to come by in this world, and Chinese behavior has not typically tended toward that kind of brinksmanship. The status quo is not going all that badly for them, and when that's the case you don't rock the boat unless you are very sure it will rock your way.