Modernization/Development Theory, CORDS, and FM 3-24?

[TheCurmudgeon]

Both assertions are questionable. the record of air power and / or COIN efforts at 'breaking wills' is less than poor -- it is one of constant failures. That is not to say that neither effort can be successful in some uses and forms, just that breaking of the will of populations has not been shown.

I wasn't really arguing for the tactic as a suitable strategy. As I recall, Douhet was advocating dropping a combination of high explosives and poison gas in city centers in order to get the people to give in. It was a direct attack on the will of the population -- don't attack the armies on the ground, go straight at the population; that is the true source of power. From that perspective it was a different strategy. One that recognized a the shift in the political systems of the Western nations since the Glorious Revolution in England and the American and French Revolutions. COIN is based on a similar premise; that the people are the government's (or the insurgency's) base of power and therefore the true prize to be won. But neither, I believe, are based on the idea that you attack the will of the population first, and then bring in the Army.

I would agree that bombing's success is dubious and probably will remain so. My reasons have to do with a misinterpretation of psychology; that people will simply give up under such conditions. My belief is that it will have the opposite affect. It will harden their resolve. I also believe that it will have more subtle changes in attitude causing the population to band together against a common enemy -- essentially shifting their belief system away from a liberal system to something more like a traditional (nationalist) one. But it is just a guess.

I believe COIN suffers from a similar problem of misinterpreting psychology, but I am not as clear exactly where the mistake lies.