Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
2. Change the current approach, listen to the rebelling populace and make reasonable accommodations to ensure that the entire populace is equitably incorporated in a system that is dedicated to justice and that is perceived as legitimate by the affected populace. It will likely be messy for a while but will settle into some form of natural stability that works for them.
Who's meant to be doing the listening and the making of reasonable accommodations? Us? The Afghan government?

As always, I think you're assuming that the people who are fighting are fighting for equitable inclusion, and as always I find that assumption insupportable. I don't think either side has the slightest interest in equitable inclusion. They want power. They want to win and kick the stuffing out of the other guys. That will leave them fighting an insurgency, but they don't care, because winning and kicking ass is better than losing and getting your ass kicked, and they know perfectly well that one or the other is going to happen. This is not a situation unique to Afghanistan by any means. The idea of a single government that is perceived as legitimate by the entire populace sounds lovely, but it can only work if various factions of the populace have at least marginally compatible ideas of legitimacy. If the general idea of what constitutes legitimacy is "we win and they lose", that's not so easy to do.

Insurgency and civil conflict don't have to be about the legitimately aggrieved fighting for inclusion and justice. They can also be, and often are, simple struggles for power between or among groups with fundamentally incompatible agendas. That's not something an intervening party can change, and it's a good reason for outside parties to think twice, and then a few more times, before getting involved.