Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
This is an interesting article and shows how the Red Chinese use fishermen and paramilitary nautical units as the thin end of a wedge when engaging in territorial expansion.
This citation echoes something I've said repeatedly here:

Expectations are sky-high among the Chinese populace. Having regularly described their maritime territorial claims as a matter of indisputable sovereignty, having staked their own and the country's reputation on wresting away control of contested expanses, and having roused popular sentiment with visions of seafaring grandeur, Chinese leaders will walk back their claims at their peril. They must deliver -- one way or another.
This is why a blustering US response with implicit threats (that we aren't prepared to back) and an implicit demand that the Chines back down are such a bad idea. The Chinese will have to respond in kind: it's politically impossible for them to be seen backing down. At the same time, we push about the only button that can get the Chinese populace to rally behind their government. Where's the advantage in that?

Realistically, this problem isn't going away any time soon, and there's no immediate policy that's going to change the situation on the water. Saber-rattling bluster won't help and will probably make things worse. That doesn't mean anyone has to walk away and concede the issue, it just means there's no quick easy solution.

Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
It also suggests that those Kilo subs the Viets are acquiring may be more important than we think.
Not so easy to confront a fishing fleet with a submarine.

I read something not long ago expressing concern over a proliferation of submarines in the SCS and the practicality of their use. Apparently the depth of the water confines operations to fairly limited spaces and there was concern over collisions and unplanned encounters. I'll try to find it again, it sounded plausible but I don't know enough about submarines to have an opinion.

What the Vietnamese are doing that works as an economic area denial strategy is installing a network of shore-based SSMs and SAMs that cover waters in the EEZ. I personally think the Philippines should adopt that strategy rather than pouring huge sums into ships and aircraft that would probably not survive the first day of an actual conflict, but WTFDIK?