Shot down over the Ukraine: MH17

[OUTLAW 09]

Putin has misunderstood the impact of the downing and the looting on the entire EU especially the Dutch who are by far the largest trader with Russia.

A poll released indicated 78% of the Dutch were in favor of sectorial sanctions even if it hurt them.

Those "zealous Christians" looting at the crash site turned public opinion across a lot of Europe.

http://news.yahoo.com/grieving-dutch...8--sector.html

As Biggus suggested Putin would have been far wiser if he turned over the launcher and those that fired it.

[Biggus]

As Biggus suggested Putin would have been far wiser if he turned over the launcher and those that fired it.

I don't think that this will ever happen. I can't see a way for Russia to save any semblance of face after more than a week of obvious lies.

[AmericanPride]

Outlaw,

What political outcome are expecting from all of this? Shaming is not an effective strategy in politics - it only hardens the position of the opposite party, especially if they still retain the power to act independently. Already the media is reporting that Russia is in fact escalating its activities in Ukraine. What's the West counter-action?

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw,

What political outcome are expecting from all of this? Shaming is not an effective strategy in politics - it only hardens the position of the opposite party, especially if they still retain the power to act independently. Already the media is reporting that Russia is in fact escalating its activities in Ukraine. What's the West counter-action?

AP---let us see just how Russia responds to the EU publishing of the sanctions list this weekend.

Already the Russian stock market and Russian financial markets are in a nose dive and the Rubel has dived and the interest rates for their government bonds and the central raised the interest rates to 8% just trying to keep money from flowing out.

The IMF had predicted 75B USD would flow out after the Crimea--there is now over 100B that has flowed out and more daily---the Russians themselves stated Friday they are just short of a "technical" recession--which the IMF states will take them roughly six years to come out of of and the GDP looks to be almost flat and still sinking---the first series of sanctions are hitting and hurting.

Russia forgot being nothing more than a raw resource provider does not leave room for much maneuvering if the economy goes south.

Today it was signaled by the German industrial groups---they are going along with anything the EU wants to sanction and Germany on it's own is extending financial sanctions---meaning no loans for projects in Russian.

It appears the US is going for another round of Russian businesses to be placed on the sanctions listing.

The Dutch were against any form of sanctions based on their high level of trade with Russia---they are pushing the hardest now in the EU due to the high number of their killed citizens.

Let's see how this shakes out in the next 72 hrs.

Or we could simply look at what the definition is for war and notice that Russia is already at war with the Ukraine and secondly at war with the EU via the Ukraine as the target is really the split up of NATO, the EU and separation of Europe from the US.

Putin simply has a deep distain of the West plain and simple--- regardless of whatever we do--he is not going to change that attitude.

[OUTLAW 09]

Biggus---looks like Russia counted all the downed SU 25s and cannot understand why there seem to be more than they thought the Ukrainians actually had.

Maybe they are going to blame the US for secretly purchasing them in say Iraq and shipping them to Germany and secretly moving them by rail then to the Ukraine.

Interfax from today:

17:21 Ukraine may have secretly received Su-25 warplanes from another country - Russian Air Force commander

[JMA]

The Dutch were against any form of sanctions based on their high level of trade with Russia---they are pushing the hardest now in the EU due to the high number of their killed citizens.

There is nothing stopping the Dutch from applying unilateral sanctions against Russia if they feel so strongly about it all.

[OUTLAW 09]

There is nothing stopping the Dutch from applying unilateral sanctions against Russia if they feel so strongly about it all.

Absolutely correct and now this morning Germany's largest political party the CDU is pushing for even harder sanctions from themselves even tougher than this last round this weekend---this round itself will cost them 4B Euros or about 5.6B USD---not chump change to their economy which they anticipate will now slow down.

Merkel "leaked" today that she is totally fed up in being lied to and that Putin himself has damaged long term German industrial and political interests---the German industry association has indicated Russia is no longer on their radar screen as politically it is to risky and Putin has changed the game rules for industrial investments.

There are some indicators today in Germany that Germany is now pushing the EU Cartel Office to move ahead against Gasprom which in fact is far more damaging than sanctions as it will break the Gasprom monopolistic contracts and Russia's hold on the gas lines/gas as a weapon, new suppliers can then use the pipelines and pricing contracts must then go over a central bidding process much as the deregulated electrical power suppliers now have in the EU.

That is why the yelling was massive today out of Moscow--they "see" the pain coming and cannot do anything to stop it other than declare defeat in eastern Ukraine which they will probably not do thus more sanctions. A defeat now for Putin in his eyes is unacceptable thus his economy will nose dive around him in the coming months or he will go for an armed "peacekeeper" option to save face causing even more sanctions---he is in a bind.

What appears to be happening in the EU is that there is a common set of sanctions and every country is now allowed to move forward what they can additionally take on and not damage badly their own economies---an interesting EU development if one asks me as it allows the weaker ones to generally partiticapate as well as those that are friendly to Russia ie Italy etc and then to stay steady state.

I have always said here in SWJ that when Putin fully sees the West paying a hefty price to defend EU stated values---then and only then will Putin get it--that has now happened and the anger coming out of Moscow is massive today as they know it will hurt and they realize suddenly they have no way to push back.

They have no way to counteract the sanctions being a single raw resource well maybe a two raw resource economy and dependent of the EU for high quality products and technological developments and the building of new factories---have you noticed they have not responded at all outside of a few names of the visa restrictions list?

Now Putin fully understands the EU is ready to even go further by the middle of next week again if he does not throttle back the separatists inside the Ukraine and or more weapons and personnel go over the borders. The US has clearly signaled to Putin that via GMTI sensors in the constant flying AWACs/EW NATO aircraft ---they can count and identify every vehicle crossing the border as well as manpower.

All the while the UA just keeps taking back town after town.

[JMA]

Absolutely correct and now this morning Germany's largest political party the CDU is pushing for even harder sanctions from themselves even tougher than this last round this weekend---this round itself will cost them 4B Euros or about 5.6B USD---not chump change to their economy which they anticipate will now slow down.

Now if the initial response had been significant would the situation be where it is today? Appeasement never works and Germany must take the blame for putting the brakes on what the US wanted to do (even though that was pretty tame in itself).

Merkel "leaked" today that she is totally fed up in being lied to and that Putin himself has damaged long term German industrial and political interests---the German industry association has indicated Russia is no longer on their radar screen as politically it is to risky and Putin has changed the game rules for industrial investments.

Frau Merkel has been quite pathetic. But then again, what is Germany today? Yesterday's hero with all the old arrogance but none of the bite. Little wonder Putin jerked them around.

[OUTLAW 09]

Now if the initial response had been significant would the situation be where it is today? Appeasement never works and Germany must take the blame for putting the brakes on what the US wanted to do (even though that was pretty tame in itself).



Frau Merkel has been quite pathetic. But then again, what is Germany today? Yesterday's hero with all the old arrogance but none of the bite. Little wonder Putin jerked them around.

Agreed--if all had gone immediately to the current level of sanctions the Russian mercenaries would never have gone to the Ukraine in the first place and the MH17 would not have been shot down..

[Firn]

Agreed--if all had gone immediately to the current level of sanctions the Russian mercenaries would never have gone to the Ukraine in the first place and the MH17 would not have been shot down..

Even if I supported far harder sanctions far earlier exactly to avoid the current results of Putins escalation one can not be sure what he would have done. Perhaps one key lesson of that conflict, one often forgotten and relearned is that a state must be able make potential opponents pay a considerable price in case of war - even in peaceful Europe.

[Firn]

The excellent WSJ map of the tragedy offers so far the best overview of the huge debris field.

Map of a Tragedy:
How MH17 Came Apart Over Ukraine

The Wall Street Journal cataloged and mapped some of the debris of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which fell across three Ukrainian villages after the Boeing 777 was brought down on July 17, allegedly by a surface-to-air missile.

Reporting by Jon Ostrower in Washington, D.C., Alexander Kolyandr, Margaret Coker and Paul Sonne in Ukraine
Interactive by Stuart A. Thompson / The Wall Street Journal

A great job by those involved.

[JMA]

You got to hand it to Putin in that he judged the moment correctly. The US is at its politically weakest (probably ever), Germany has sold out over gas, France is caught over a naval vessal contract and Britain is trapped by the investments of the (criminal) oligarchs in London... the rest of the EU is garbage.

What amazes me is that the western media continue to refer to "pro-Russian separatists" rather than exactly what they are. What hold has Russia got on the media?

Agreed--if all had gone immediately to the current level of sanctions the Russian mercenaries would never have gone to the Ukraine in the first place and the MH17 would not have been shot down..

[OUTLAW 09]

At last count there are 16 different Russian media stories about the shot down and none have grabbed the global media longer than 2 minutes.

Now they are lancing faked satellite photos trying to still link Ukrainian Buk missiles to the shot down and they cannot even get the photos close to correct.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/07/3...ages-says-sbu/

[davidbfpo]

Moderators Note

On reflection this thread has been closed and the discussion will now take place in the new (August 2014 onwards) thread Ukraine: non-military aspects (August 2014 onwards).

There have been updates in several threads, mainly those referring to the war in the Ukraine and an update three years on was posted today July 19th 2017. See:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...=25367&page=13 (Ends)