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Thread: Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    Bulls#!t.
    1. Nothern Crimean Canal (which brought Dnieper waters to Crimea)has been closed in April.

    http://www.unian.net/politics/911983...tml#ad-image-0

    http://www.golos.com.ua/Article.aspx?id=329304

    to be honest, I don't know whether it's open or still closed now.

    2. Ukrainian food is already partially forbidden in Crimea, according to Ukrainian media.

    http://economics.unian.net/agro/9498...-kollapsa.html



    Another load of BS. You don't even bothered to spend half an hour to investigate separatists political agenda and beliefs.
    an you mirhond have never in your comments here at SWJ answered a single question placed to you have you comrade mirhond.

    let's see you first stated you would provide your ID

    then you changed your English a total of five different times and at one point the English was really poor and you changed your logo three times

    then you supported the looting of the airliner dead under the guise and in your own words "zealous Christian" beliefs and approved of their throwing 36 dead bodies into a truck and then you claimed they were being taken to Donetsk which they never did arrive and finally you approved the looting of those bodies

    your are by the way now the sixth mirhond

    then you admitted that you were in Russia with your food comments but again side stepped the questions placed to you

    then you state we here should understand the separatist political agenda which is the "New Russia" as proclaimed by Putin--and comrade mirhond you have never provided a single example of discrimination of ethnic Russians residing in eastern Ukraine when I provided a list of six things that disproved discrimination of ethnic Russians

    then yesterday a leading Donetsk separatist complained that "when they got a weapon in their hands then they had "power" forgetting whatever the political agenda was to be--now they are a criminal drunken band of thieves attempting to flee dressed as orthodox priests or civilians so I am not sure what they agenda was? t

    there are reports now they show up for check point duty in civilian clothes now so they can flee if they are attacked---wow great fighters you have there mirhond

    then now all the three "Russian" top leaders of the "New Russia" have fled "New Russia"

    then we get reports of a Russian military convoy entering and being attacked by the UA artillery and then Russia denies again

    then now we have the current Donetsk leader claiming in a open video he has received 1200 Moscow trained fighters, 120 APCs and 30 tanks---which was denied by the Russian Foreign Ministry

    so comrade mirhond just what that "Separatist political agenda again"---I am not sure you even know what the "agenda" is or was?
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-18-2014 at 06:48 AM.

  2. #202
    Council Member Chris jM's Avatar
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    Outlaw, for what it is worth Mirhond is providing a fascinating insight into a (the?) info campaign that Moscow would want us to believe. If I were you I would stop spending so much effort breaking down and attacking in detail everything said gentleman(s) states as it is pretty clear that his responses are going to continue regardless, and the general readership here can be trusted to make up an informed judgement overall.

    One question I have which I have struggled to find an answer for is how large Russia's SF and SOF community is - I'm assuming that their SF have been involved, which seems to be safe judgement. Would Ukraine represent complete commitment and culmination for them, or would they be retaining some economies of scale and have some scope to expand their efforts at UW if opportunities became available, either in Ukraine or elsewhere in the FSU?
    '...the gods of war are capricious, and boldness often brings better results than reason would predict.'
    Donald Kagan

  3. #203
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris jM View Post
    it is pretty clear that his responses are going to continue regardless, and the general readership here can be trusted to make up an informed judgement overall.
    Well of cause I continue to criticise (Ukro)media nonsence and bull$#!t poured here by some users (excuding Outlaw), I kinda feel obliged to bring some sanity, common sence and at least relevant links here
    like this, for example

    Donetzk after shelling
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGWg...zz0SjinWekjUBw

    and bull#### like this:

    empty shells of Crimean stores, via Ukrainian site espreso.tv
    link: http://espreso.tv/news/2014/08/02/na...znovu_porozhno

    picture:

    reality:

    Blizzard Nemo slams into US, via discovery.com
    link: http://news.discovery.com/earth/weat...ard-130208.htm

    picture:

    ps. all stuff is provided by Ukrainian journalist Anatoliy Shariy https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVP...zz0SjinWekjUBw

    another funny, although rather old BS

    http://inforesist.org/boj-v-marinke-tank-protiv-btr/

    Но тут из посадки вылетает украинский БТР.
    Он начинает ездить вокруг танка и лупить ему в башню из крупного калибра. Танк начинает буксовать, пытается навести башню на БТР, но скорости и маневренности не хватает. Потом танк пытается уйти, а БТР продолжает с близкого расстояния лупить ему в башню пока не раздается взрыв и башню не отрывает. Хлопцы в БТР оказались бойцами 72-й бригады. Вот такие вот у нас асы появляются!»
    "Ukrainian BTR is making cirсles around tank, shooting at him with a mashinegun, tank tries to rotate its turret but BTR is faster, then tank tries to escape, BTR sprays its turret ring and finally tank expodes."
    W-O-O-W!! T-72 lost all HPs and destroyed by 12.7 mm mashinegun!! Brilliant victory! I believe author of this epic plays World of Tanks too much.
    Last edited by mirhond; 08-18-2014 at 11:31 AM.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

  4. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    Well of cause I continue to criticise (Ukro)media nonsence and bull$#!t poured here by some users (excuding Outlaw), I kinda feel obliged to bring some sanity, common sence and at least relevant links here
    like this, for example

    Donetzk after shelling
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGWg...zz0SjinWekjUBw

    and bull#### like this:

    empty shells of Crimean stores, via Ukrainian site espreso.tv
    link: http://espreso.tv/news/2014/08/02/na...znovu_porozhno

    picture:

    reality:

    Blizzard Nemo slams into US, via discovery.com
    link: http://news.discovery.com/earth/weat...ard-130208.htm

    picture:

    ps. all stuff is provided by Ukrainian journalist Anatoliy Shariy https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVP...zz0SjinWekjUBw

    another funny, although rather old BS

    http://inforesist.org/boj-v-marinke-tank-protiv-btr/



    "Ukrainian BTR is making cirсles around tank, shooting at him with a mashinegun, tank tries to rotate its turret but BTR is faster, then tank tries to escape, BTR sprays its turret ring and finally tank expodes."
    W-O-O-W!! T-72 lost all HPs and destroyed by 12.7 mm mashinegun!! Brilliant victory! I believe author of this epic plays World of Tanks too much.
    mirhond--you are getting to mellow for us.

    1. was it not Russia who promised to support, provide and ensure the Crimeans were treated "better" than the Ukrainians "treated" them---but gasoline is in extremely short supply, electrical power comes and goes and water is being rationed, Russian does not have a budget yet for the Crimea but they talk about 2020 having one, the Russian tourists have not come even with Russian subsidies, the cost of living has rocketed a 67% sine Russia "annexed" the Crimea. and the Crimea cannot export products because of the sanctions.

    so again mirhond what exactly was it that Russia promised the ethnic Russians in the Crimea for their votes?

    nice that you quoted inforesist---shows that yes even a Russian mercenary driven tank can be out driven by a Ukrainian who simply drove in circles---maybe Russia should rethink tank doctrine after this video.

    2. by the way inforesist was the source for Russian military service documents being released for the West to see that yes Russian soldiers are in fact fighting in the Ukraine

    3. by the way since you posted a link for the shelling of Donetsk how about the reported shelling of a refugee column with GRADS fired by Russian mercenaries.

    http://en.inforesist.org/militants-s...n-of-refugees/

    mirhond--reference the shelling of a civilian refugee column by Russian mercenaries is what a "friendly act" of support offered by the Russian government?

    Many killed", "people burned alive in the vehicles" - BBC on the refugee convoy that came under fire near RU border. http://www.bbc.co.uk/russian/rolling..._ukraine.shtml
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-18-2014 at 12:51 PM.

  5. #205
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    SBU busted rebel group created by Russian SF

    link: http://www.sbu.gov.ua/sbu/control/uk...7&cat_id=39574

    picture:


    Rebels are so desperate that they degraded to empty bottles (mm.., Chernihivske "White" beer, cheap and tasty, I like it ) and firework cases as means of destruction

    gawd, thas stream of crap seems to be endless

    to be honest, bottle might be turned into Molotov and firework case into IED, so one may give some credit to this "news"
    Last edited by mirhond; 08-18-2014 at 12:34 PM.
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  6. #206
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    SBU busted rebel group created by Russian SF

    link: http://www.sbu.gov.ua/sbu/control/uk...7&cat_id=39574

    picture:


    Rebels are so desperate that they degraded to empty bottles and firework cases as means of destruction

    gawd, thas stream of crap seems to be endless
    see mirhond--yu have got to be careful about posting;

    about two weeks ago you posted photos which you allegedly stated were rockets being fired by the UA at civilains building--in those photos I indiated to you there were from three different missile sizes.

    One photo did catch my attention---it was a 220mm MRL which can only be fired from a BM27 which the UA does not have in that area where you stated they were fired from. One photos depicted the fins and the other photos the actual MRL.

    Now it appears the Russian mercenaries do have the BM27s which were reported a number of times having been seen crossing from Russia into the Ukraine.

    then you posted that the UA was using WP against civilian targets---as well as did the RIA and Interfax which turned out to be photos from Gaza---but the use of cluster bombs is what "legal" and by the way Russia signed the international accord against the use f cluster munitions right mirhond?

    http://en.inforesist.org/militants-u...-forces-photo/
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-18-2014 at 12:50 PM.

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    mirhond----seems the Donetsk separatist commander has a problem with his troops---"looting and being bandits within the ranks"

    now mirhond what exactly was the separatists "political agenda" again that you complained we did not get---seems Russian mercenaries do not get it either if they have the time to "loot" and be "bandits"? no wonder the UA is beating them since it appears they are not looting and being bandits.

    DONETSK, August 18 (RIA Novosti) – The death penalty was introduced in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) for the gravest crimes, the republic’s press center reported.

    The first meeting of the Presidium of the DPR Council of Ministers was held on August 17. During this meeting, the Regulation on Military Courts and the Criminal Code of the DPR were approved.

    The regulatory framework of the Russian Federation was taken as a basis of the Criminal Code of the republic, according to the press center.

    "A legislative act provides for the death penalty for the gravest crimes," the republic’s statement said.

    It is also noted that the system of military courts is to have two tiers. The lower tier includes courts-martial, which deal with crimes committed by military personnel of rank no higher than squadron commander. The top tier includes military tribunals that deal with offenses made by battalion commanders and those of higher rank. The DPR leadership believes that such a provision "would greatly facilitate the fight against looting and banditry" among its servicemen.

    As DPR Foreign Minister Alexander Karaman said, once the war is over, the DPR will step "on the path of humanization of the criminal law."

  8. #208
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    The Interpreter is carrying photos of a Russian supply convoy coming back out of the Ukraine 20 URALs and 4 KAMAZs at the same border crossing point where the aid tucks are currently parked.

    Photos have not been geo tagged.

    http://www.interpretermag.com/

    While the Kremlin keeps denying it, Western intelligence agencies, Russian and Western journalists, The Interpreter and Russian separatists all agree that Russia is sending armored vehicles, trucks, troops and supply trucks across the border into Ukraine to support the separatists. What's interesting today is the claim that supply trucks, possible having already delivered their cargo to the Russian troops already in Ukraine or their separatist allies, have been spotted returning back across the border at the Izvarino checkpoint, the same place where the aid convoy is supposed to cross the border, and the same place where Russian armor was spotted last week rolling into Ukraine.

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    Russia continues mil supplies (heavy towed artillery) to its proxies in Luhansk using route via Sukodilsk.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPlew6Ee118

    This Russian towed artillery unit had been filmed the previous evening by a Polish TVN24 camera team close to the white convoy next to the Russian separatist crossing point where the aid trucks are parked.

    Seems that while all are watching the aid convoy--- Russian heavy military equipment, supplies ,and troops are crossing over during the night time--cannot believe this is not being see by NATO/US AWCS and E3s?.

    http://www.tvn24.pl/wiadomosci-ze-sw...24,460025.html

    Now journalists are seeing the same game---Russian tanks are moving up close to the crossing point just as the artillery unit did and probably will cross over to be seen the next day near Luhansk.

    https://twitter.com/BojanowskiW/stat...77393316364290



    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-18-2014 at 05:10 PM.

  10. #210
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris jM View Post
    Outlaw, for what it is worth Mirhond is providing a fascinating insight into a (the?) info campaign that Moscow would want us to believe. If I were you I would stop spending so much effort breaking down and attacking in detail everything said gentleman(s) states as it is pretty clear that his responses are going to continue regardless, and the general readership here can be trusted to make up an informed judgement overall.

    One question I have which I have struggled to find an answer for is how large Russia's SF and SOF community is - I'm assuming that their SF have been involved, which seems to be safe judgement. Would Ukraine represent complete commitment and culmination for them, or would they be retaining some economies of scale and have some scope to expand their efforts at UW if opportunities became available, either in Ukraine or elsewhere in the FSU?
    Although with each response he reveals more and more of the how they argue and the newest emphasis messaging---thus the constant pushing. Meaning if one pushes back does he respond or move on or if responds what is the response and the change of direction to avoid the push back--since the shoot down he is struggling actually to regain his footing as has their entire info war efforts.

    It took a massive amount of push back to just get him to admit he was in Russia as he sidestepped that all the time.

    The Russians have greatly expanded their SF abilities and have even complimented SOCOM by creating their own SOCOM and it falls to a degree under the GRU which also has recon/sabotage groups.

    I linked the last day or so to a number of videos and photos depicting their SF/GRU equipment and their secure satcom radios taken from inside the Ukraine.

    There was an interesting article today in Foreign Policy about the Russian UW efforts. If you look at their new military doctrine "New Generation Warfare" and their eight step approach to supporting political warfare they have reached step six with the introduction of actual Russian troops into the Ukraine.who some commenters here said would not be done.

    http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...aine_arms_nato

    First six steps of their new UW doctrine---it is this doctrine that NATO announced today they will view as a trigger for Article 5 for NATO members.

    The phases of new-generation war can be schematized as (Tchekinov & Bogdanov,
    2013, pp. 15-22):
    First Phase: non-military asymmetric warfare (encompassing information, moral, psychological,
    ideological, diplomatic, and economic measures as part of a plan to establish a favorable
    political, economic, and military setup).
    Second Phase: special operations to mislead political and military leaders by coordinated
    measures carried out by diplomatic channels, media, and top government and military agencies
    by leaking false data, orders, directives, and instructions.
    Third Phase: intimidation, deceiving, and bribing government and military officers, with the
    objective of making them abandon their service duties.
    Fourth Phase: destabilizing propaganda to increase discontent among the population,
    boosted by the arrival of Russian bands of militants, escalating subversion.
    Fifth Phase: establishment of no-fly zones over the country to be attacked, imposition of
    blockades, and extensive use of private military companies in close cooperation with armed
    opposition units.
    Sixth Phase: commencement of military action, immediately preceded by large-scale reconnaissance
    and subversive missions. All types, forms, methods, and forces, including special
    operations forces, space, radio, radio engineering, electronic, diplomatic, and secret service
    intelligence, and industrial espionage.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-18-2014 at 06:04 PM.

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    XX committee has translated last SBU tape.

    The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has released a new signals intelligence (SIGINT) intercept on its YouTube page (link here; see a follow-up report in the Kyiv daily Ukrayinska Pravda here) that it says demonstrates that Russian-backed separatists in the Donetsk area are targeting civilians. As Andriy Lysenko, spokesman for the Ukrainian National Security Council, explained today, the conversation provides evidence that the “terrorists” tried to lay blame for a shelling incident at Stepove on 15 August on Ukrainian forces, with the help of the Russian media.

    The SBU intercept is a conversation between “Vovk” (Wolf), the deputy chief of state security for the “Donetsk People’s Republic” and “Korsa,” a female forward artillery observer for a unit of “Grad” 122mm multiple rocket launchers, the weapons that caused civilian casualties at Stepove.
    http://20committee.com/2014/08/18/ru...ing-civilians/

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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    XX committee has translated last SBU tape.



    http://20committee.com/2014/08/18/ru...ing-civilians/
    kaur---great link---there have been countless false flag attacks against both the UA and civilians over the last two months and it seems often that even the western media tends to ignore it even when bloggers catch the open source evidence and geo tag it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    XX committee has translated last SBU tape.



    http://20committee.com/2014/08/18/ru...ing-civilians/
    kaur--here is what puzzles me---the lack of a response by the entire west--actually JMA has been right all along.

    In the face of verifiable open source information which you know both NATO and the US "sees" every day with the AWCSs and the E3s not a single voice from any EU nor US political leader has been raised that in fact there is a major armed conflict going on inside the Ukraine being fought with both Russian soldiers and irregulars and Russian heavy weapons.


    After the downing of MH17 and now the shelling of civilians by Russian supplied BM21s with a verifiable voice intercept with the firing unit what was the response from the west---zip, nichts, nothing, nada.

    And you cannot tell me the West did not see that happen via the AWCSs---if we can see the movement of Taliban in rugged mountains via GMTI we can certainly see a BM21 moving on level ground.

    So it begs the question ---why no response by the west---was it not the west that argued if he goes in and it is verified then the sanctions will get harder---when a threat is issued and nothing follows it up then the western bluff was called.

    That does not bode in the long term good for the Baltics even if Breedlove issued new NATO Article 5 guidelines---if NATO is not willing to move now then they will now move against an irregular "local force" in the future.

    Putin has gone all in and is supplying arms, troops and heavy weapons.

    There has been even open source comments and photos showing the burials of Russian airborne troops back in Russia who died during a "training accident"---what more does the west need?

    https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor/...23474419695616

    It is almost like the US political leadership cannot address more than one international relations problem at a time--yes we bomb and hellfire the IS and get back onto the GWOT treadmill---but when US interests and especially the interests of the EU and NATO are far more deeply challenged then what is the US response---well let's see maybe we can negotiate or better Putin will come to his senses, or maybe if we ignore it will simply disappear like a bad dream.

    That is the problem with soft power when one's bluff is called as Putin has just done the last week---what then do you have as a "soft power response"---not much would be the answer.

    Soft power if backed up by a brutal sanctions regime if a certain line is crossed carries far more weight than say hard military power does but the US seems reluctant to use it and the EU most certainly will not use it.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-19-2014 at 12:21 PM.

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    Seems that others in fact see the Russian troop and weapons movements as a Russian invasion.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan...ushpmg00000014

    Some here often pointed out the west did not know what the Russian demands were or that NATO had somehow violated an agreement that never existed outside of a personal one on one- one time event in the early 90s

    Seems to me Putin has never come off his own declared doctrine of I can defend/invade countries if my fellow ethnic Russians are somehow discriminated against and his new political warfare using the strategy of UW.

    Seems to me that even in the face of sanctions which are hurting his economy massively right now he still has not come off of those two stated demands---so how was again were negotiations to stop him?

    And again I will point out---absolutely no responses from the west on the invasion efforts by Putin and his irregular/regular forces.

    It is almost like everyone is watching the "aid convoy" and not noticing at night the massive movement of troops and heavy equipment across the same border area.

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    Outlaw, it seems that West is moving in it's own tempo. Western institutions just can't react to every new episode of warfare. EU has moved from mild indiviual persons and 10th rate firms to 3. phase sanctions. NATO is making new defence plans. Who could think about those in March? Russia has been much more quicker in OODA loop due to hesitation and threat perception in Western camp and structural logic of West's institutions. The longer Russia's hand is visible in Ukraine, the more hesitation and threat perception are fading in the West.

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    I was pretty sceptical about false flag artillery strikes attacking civilians by (Pro)Russians for Russian TV some weeks ago but more and more different sources are supporting those claims. The Ukrainian artillery has certainly killed civilians with artillery but with the Russian propaganda in overdrive it has a big demand for a constant feed of ever more gruesome stories and pictures. In addition artillery attacks on Russian territory might have to be fabricated as the Ukrainians have been weary to retaliate there.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

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    A convoy of military equipment from Russia has gone through the village of Mykolaivka-Stanichno in the Luhansk region, according to Informator, Espreso.TV reports.

    “A caravan” with tanks, MLRS “Grad”, artillery and even field kitchens stretched for 1.5 kilometres. The convoy of technical equipment drove through the villages Pioneerske and Mykolaivka in the direction of Luhansk.

    Subsequently, the convoy was spotted in the vicinity of the Epicenter hypermarket in the eastern neighbourhood. According to eyewitnesses, the military men talked with locals reluctantly, but nevertheless admitted that they are from Russia. The Russian green men” passed drove through Budennoho vul. [street] towards the city center.

    Note: Through the border areas controlled by terrorists of the [so-called] Luhansk Peoples’ Republic (LNR) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) into Ukraine regularly pass convoys of Russian military equipment. The convoys are made up of soldiers of the Armed Forces of Russia.

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    Default Putin upping the ante even more

    I have to pour cold water on the latest Ukrainian military reports again. But since the Ukrainian government feeds overly optimistic reports, better to get the bad news sooner than later. The Ukrainian offensives on multiple fronts, that appeared to be gaining success only a week ago, have for all intents and purposes, ground to a halt. There are two reasons: first, the open border (following the epic breakout by the three Ukrainian brigades dug in there for over a month) has allowed the Russians to infiltrate up to 5,000 infantry, 250 tanks and 50 rocket missile systems into the fight. (Even the separatists admit that they now have up to 20,000 infantry in total, compared to 48,000 Ukrainians, by their count) These have been parceled out to reinforce a multitude of threatened sectors, to include Makeevka, Snizhne, Krasnyi Luch, Antratsyt, Illovaysk and Faschivka. Therefore, the advancing Ukrainians have encountered stiffened resistance and increased artillery fire, followed by counterattacks supported by tanks. (While reports of disheartened separatists deserting are true, these are being replaced more and more by fresh "little green men" from Russia) Two, the multiple Ukrainian maneuvers were carried out by small formations to interdict lines of communications, usually by combat groups of no more than two battalions in size with some armor and mobile artillery attached. While many of these thrusts were able to achieve rather deep incursions and achieved initial surprise, the battle groups were too small to sustain themselves if surrounded. Not surprisingly, the Russians used some of their reinforcements to surround these Ukrainian forces. Thankfully, most of these were able to break out of encirclement, but with significant loss of life and destroyed or abandoned heavy equipment. For example, just yesterday, only some 700 members of the 30th mechanized brigade broke out of encirclement near Stepanivka (east of Saur-Mohyla) Close to 200 were killed or captured (primarily by artillery from across the Russian border). Three days ago, the separatists circulated video of some thirty bombed out or abandoned armored vehicles in Stepanivka.

    Moreover, reports of Luhansk being close to capture are way off the mark. While it is true that Ukrainian troops are fighting in the northeast and southeast sectors of the city (a few Ukrainian spetsnaz even broke through to the city center), these are only four battalions. There are many more separatists inside of the city. Furthermore, the Ukrainians themselves are close to being surrounded. "Little green men" just infiltrated through a narrow gap in the line and are now inside of the city (By some reports as many 1200 Russian paratroopers and 100 tanks slipped in last night) The 80th (lvivska) airmobile brigade, reinforced by some tanks from the 1st guards tank brigade and the famous "Aidar" battalion, together with the 3d spetsnaz have been attacking into the city as well as holding Russian tanks at bay coming up the road from the border at Krasnodon for over a week. Sad to say, their heroic fighting may have to end in surrender. Their only base of supply is the Luhansk airport, which itself is surrounded and the nearest friendly lines are over 20 kilometers away. Also, the airport's defenses were thinned out when these troops attacked from inside the airport in an easterly direction to interdict the road to Luhansk from use by Putin's "white humanitarian" column. In summary, there are now too many Russians, too few battle worthy Ukrainians, with which to seize Luhansk and/or Donetsk. Ukrainian president Poroshenko will have to bite the bullet and withdraw into a firm line of defense further north, or else up to one-third of the Ukrainian army in the Donbas will be destroyed or captured by the ever-increasing number of Russian troops. The Ukrainians are over-extended, battle-weary and under-supplied, while the Russians are concentrated in a central position, coiled to strike in whichever direction they choose and sporting state-of-the-art equipment (No T-90 tanks yet, but rest assured, they will mark their debut soon). The war has reached the stage where the Ukrainian army is starting to fight proper and cohesive units of the Russian army, mostly spetsnaz, supported by armor and artillery, instead of militia that was led by spetsnaz.

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    I took the time to go back and reread the Latvian study done on the Crimea event viewed against that new UW doctrine and if one takes the time you will see that Russia is now at the sixth phase of that doctrine and moving to phase seven on a eight phase scale.

    If this new doctrine succeeds as it looks like it will the entire Baltic, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovenia are at risk, NATO and the EU will be split and the US isolated inside Europe---all long time goals from Putin since his take over.

    It is critical that commenters on this thread thoroughly understand the new Russian UW doctrine as it is being carried daily and in full public view complete now with videos.

    While this article below focuses on the Crimea as analyzed by the National Defence Academy of Latvia
    Center for Security and Strategic Research it applies directly to the current events in eastern Ukraine that
    we comment daily on. It also explains why the West seems incapable of responding.

    We tend to forget that the new Russian military doctrine currently being used in eastern Ukraine in support to the
    Russian political warfare being directed towards the Ukraine is in fact based totally on Unconventional Warfare.

    A major goal of the current Russian politics is the splitting of the EU from the US influence and the splitting/weakening of NATO as a valid force on it’s borders---a sort of permanent war as mentioned below.

    Taken from:
    RUSSIA’S NEW GENERATION WARFARE IN UKRAINE:
    IMPLICATIONS FOR LATVIAN DEFENSE POLICY

    Taken from page three:
    Russia’s Campaign in Ukraine as New-Generation Warfare

    Russia's military strategy can be divided into three interrelated levels. First, doctrinal
    unilateralism, or the idea that the successful use of force results in legitimacy. The weak reaction
    of the United States and the European Union has indicated that the strategy is correct.
    Second, by strongly adhering to legalism. Without discussing the legal merit of Russian actions,
    they were all backed by some form of legal act. Putin asked the Russian parliament for
    authorization to use military power in the Ukraine if necessary. Naturally, it was granted.
    Russia uses this fact together with the argument that it never used military power in Crimea
    as a sign of its peaceful intentions. Third, Russia denies the idea of it having militarily occupied
    Crimea, since the troops there were local self-defense forces.


    Taken from page five:

    The result was a clear military victory on the battlefield (meaning the Crimea) by the operationalization of a well-orchestrated campaign of strategic communication, using clear political, psychological, and information strategies (Ripley & Jones, 2014), the fully operationalization of what Russian military thinkers call “New Generation Warfare”. As a result, it follows that the main guidelines for developing Russian military capabilities by 2020 are:

    Adapted from Peter Mattsson’s DSPC lecture in Riga “The Russian Armed Forces Adapted to New Operational
    Concepts in a Multipolar World?”, February 19, 2014.

    x. From war in a defined period of time to a state of permanent war as the natural condition in
    national life.


    Thus, the Russian view of modern warfare is based on the idea that the main battlespace is the mind and, as a result, new-generation wars are to be dominated by information and psychological warfare, in order to achieve superiority in troops and weapons control, morally and psychologically depressing the enemy’s armed forces personnel and civil population.


    The main objective is to reduce the necessity for deploying hard military power to the minimum necessary, making the opponent’s military and civil population support the attacker to the detriment of their own government and country. It is interesting to note the notion of permanent war, since it denotes a permanent enemy. In the current geopolitical structure, the clear enemy is Western civilization, its values, culture, political system, and ideology.

    In other words, the Russians have placed the idea of influence at the very center of their operational planning and used all possible levers to achieve this: skillful internal communications; deception operations; psychological operations and well-constructed external communications. Crucially, they have demonstrated an innate understanding of the three key target audiences and their probably behavior: the Russian speaking majority in Crimea; the Ukrainian government; the international community, specifically NATO and the EU. Armed with this information they knew what to do, when and what the outcomes were likely to be,
    demonstrating that the ancient Soviet art of reflexive control is alive and well in the Kremlin.

    Reflexive control can be defined as “(...) a means of conveying to a partner or an opponent specially
    prepared information to incline him to voluntarily make the predetermined decision desired by the initiator of
    the action” (Thomas, 2004). For a comprehensive analysis of the Russian and Chinese achievements in
    this area, see Tatham, 2013.

    This is very relevant to understanding its strategic significance, since it is the operationalization
    of a new form of warfare that cannot be characterized as a military campaign in
    the classic sense of the term. The invisible military occupation cannot be considered an occupation
    by definition. Not only were the troops already on Crimean territory stationed at Russian
    naval bases, but they were also “officially” part of the autochthone civilian militia. The
    deception operations occurred inside Russian territory as military exercises, including ones in
    Kaliningrad to increase the insecurity of the Baltic States and Poland. At the same time, the
    Crimean parliament officially - although not legally by the Ukrainian constitution - asked to
    join the Russian Federation, and the Ukrainian media became inaccessible. As a result, Russian
    channels of communication propagating the Kremlin’s version of facts were able to establish
    a parallel material reality, legitimizing the Russian actions in the realm of ideas.

    Russia has been aggressively pursuing a mix of the strategies characteristic to the first
    phase of new-generation warfare, including the one of non-military asymmetric warfare in
    Latvia.


    NOTE: This is a major reason for the new NATO definition of Article Five issued by the
    US Commander Breedlove, and why Merkel is headed to Latvia this weekend.

    Some examples include the broadcasting of Russian propaganda channels, issuing
    Russian citizenship to Latvia’s non-citizens, pseudo human-rights movements, pro-Russian
    political parties, just to cite the most blatant. Since Russia’s strategy is opportunistic, reflecting
    the notion discussed before, that any campaign is to be pursued only in the case of certain
    victory, it will not initiate the second, third, and fourth phase unless favorable conditions are
    clear. The establishment of such favorable conditions is very much the responsibility of Latvia
    itself. Many will correctly claim that this is obvious. But, is it? If so, why is so difficult for us
    to take measures to counteract Russia’s measures towards establishing the favorable conditions
    that can lead to the next phase? As the popular saying goes, “it’s no use crying over spilt
    milk.”

    The phases of new-generation war can be schematized as (Tchekinov & Bogdanov,
    2013, pp. 15-22):
    First Phase: non-military asymmetric warfare (encompassing information, moral, psychological,
    ideological, diplomatic, and economic measures as part of a plan to establish a favorable
    political, economic, and military setup).
    NOTE: this is why the Russian global information war has been massive and all encompassing
    to include SWJ.
    Second Phase: special operations to mislead political and military leaders by coordinated
    measures carried out by diplomatic channels, media, and top government and military agencies
    by leaking false data, orders, directives, and instructions.
    Third Phase: intimidation, deceiving, and bribing government and military officers, with the
    objective of making them abandon their service duties.
    Fourth Phase: destabilizing propaganda to increase discontent among the population,
    boosted by the arrival of Russian bands of militants, escalating subversion.
    Fifth Phase: establishment of no-fly zones over the country to be attacked, imposition of
    blockades, and extensive use of private military companies in close cooperation with armed
    opposition units.
    NOTE: The extensive/massive buildup of Russian SAM11s, 13s, and 17s on the Ukrainian border
    are all about a no fly zone.
    Sixth Phase: commencement of military action, immediately preceded by large-scale reconnaissance
    and subversive missions. All types, forms, methods, and forces, including special
    operations forces, space, radio, radio engineering, electronic, diplomatic, and secret service
    intelligence, and industrial espionage.

    NOTE: IMO we are already seeing Russian implementation of this phase over the last week in
    eastern Ukraine using the “humanitarian aid convoy” as a true Trojan Horse camouflaging action.

    Meaning see we the Russians as so concerned about the welfare of the ethnic Russians we are
    providing 2000 tons of supplies---but not over the previously agreed to crossing point and not certainly not in
    initial agreement with the ICRC and the Ukraine which is what I did state to the world before I sent the trucks on their way.

    Now as the world looks daily at the convoy- Russian heavy weapons and troops are driven
    over the border in a steady stream with the resulting videos being posted and no one
    in the West seems to care.

    It often appears that the IS is far more important to the US than the loss of NATO and the EU would be to US long term strategies.

    That is if a strategy even exists?
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-20-2014 at 06:54 AM.

  20. #220
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    Ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl is carrying a series on photos and interviews concerning the civilians hit by alleged irregular MRLs.

    There are well a number of bloggers indicating a Russian troop column of 1200 and 150 armored vehicles had made it into the Luhansk city.

    Must be the "aid" that the Donetsk said was coming? But the difference is -not irregular troops but trained Russian airborne troops and major MBTs.

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