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  1. #17
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    OK, let's start from the start: to say I'm clueless about US air power would be an understatement. I know to distinguish a F-15 from F-16, but I have no clue about the methods and processes related to targeting selection of the USAF, USN, USMC etc.

    I'm just somebody with 'above average' interest in obscure air forces, incl. specific Arab-, Iranian, and few African air forces. The less-well known, the more interesting for me they get. Thus, the SyAAF is something like my 'speciality', between others (IRIAF, former IrAF, and few others would be additional examples, as can be seen from all the titles that can be found on the link here). When researching about such air forces, I go slightly further than most of my colleagues, i.e. I do not only research aircraft types, camo patterns and markings, and I do not copy-paste from other publications all the time, but I did quite some travelling around the areas of my interest, I do have quite a few '1st hand contacts'. Foremost: I'm a curious person and want to understand how things function and why they function the way they do. Therefore, I'm researching about 'how comes', and then 'capabilities and intentions' too.

    Bottom line: I can tell you the recent loss of a SyAAF Su-24 to Israeli PAC-2 was a result of reckless behaviour by the Su-24-crew. But, I couldn't tell you anything about these five 'rings' of US air power strategy (at least nothing else than what can be found in this thread) and similar 'stuff'. My avatar is insignia of the former No. 31 Squadron United Arab Republic Air Force (from 1958-1967 period), and I can describe how it came into being, and tell you the history of that unit (which included a number - then 'future' - Arab air force commanders and even statesmen), but I do not understand even the logic of the people running the US air power.

    In this very case, my point is this: the Daesh has at least 4,000 idiots, supported by between 20 and 40 MBTs, IFVs, and artillery pieces in the process of assaulting Kobane/Tel Abyad.

    In essence, this means that the Daesh has concentrated most of its forces available in NE Syria within an area that was (and still is) decreasing in size in quite dramatic fashion, the last week (see the map below).

    This translates into something like THE opportunity to smash a major Daesh force in Syria.

    The pocket is defended by combatants of the YPG (major Kurdish militia in Syria), and the FSyA: both are declared 'allies' in the war against the Daesh. For both it is known that they have no heavy weapons in the given area (well, except one of Daesh's MBTs they've captured yesterday).

    It is on hand that, once the Kobane pocket will be overrun (which appears a 'matter of time' to me, considering Turkish blockade of this area, perhaps even provision of artillery support for the Daesh - whether intentional or not, at least the artillery in question is hitting the YPG and FSyA positions, not those of the Daesh), the Daesh is going to:

    a) slaughter anybody its gets into its hands,
    b) fill the internet with videos and photos of doing that, and then
    c) disperse.

    Now, as mentioned above, I'm clueless, and it is perfectly possible that my logic is anything but applicable for the US air power. I am ready to agree that the business of tracking down and then hitting moving columns of the Daesh, or Daesh hordes manoeuvring on the battlefield, might be beyond the ability of different Saudi, Emirati, Bahraini or whatever other princes'.

    But to me it's not only 'obvious': it's crystal clear that this Daesh concentration off Kobane should be the target No.1, No.2... No. 5... No. 15...No. 50....No.99 and all the way thru No. 9999 on anybody's target list there.

    But instead, all that happens is that CENTCOM (according to its own report) flies two strikes to knock out two MBTs...?!?

    If this is not enough, let's take a closer look at another aspect of this 'Rings-related targeting checklist' nons...cough... theory. Please read the WP article about fighting in Hassakah Province, here for the start. Reason: let's say it's a good indication of what I happen to know about the situation there, but foremost it's useful for listing most important Arab tribes in NE Syria.

    By sheer accident, it is these tribes that are running most of 'refineries' now bombed by the US-led air power.

    Notable between these tribes are such like Shammar. This was the first important tribe to raise against the AQI in Iraq and help US forces there - just to be left down by Washington and then screwed up by Maliki. And when they were abandoned in such a classic fashion, they've been stabbed in the back by the Daesh too, and left without solution but to pledge allegiance to it. Nevertheless, they and some other tribes there have recently launched a de-facto uprising against the Daesh, brutally suppressed by these idiots, as can be heard from 1st hand sources in situ, or read here, here, here, and in many other places.

    And now they are bombed by the US and allies - because the 'refineries' they're running are the 'Ring 2' of some imaginary 'air power strategy' - while the Daesh concentration at Kobane is not, because 'that's Ring 5 and we're not yet there'...?

    Can you explain me this logic?
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    Last edited by CrowBat; 09-28-2014 at 09:58 AM.

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