The 'Blame The Iraqis' Gambit

[tequila]

I have to disagree with most of this article. Mr. Kagan doesn't appear to be in full contact with the facts, not a wholly unknown situation among those of the neoconnish persuasion, of which the Kagan family are stalwart champions.

The fact is that, contrary to so many predictions, Iraq has not descended into civil war. Political bargaining continues. Signs of life are returning to Baghdad and elsewhere. Many Sunnis are fighting al-Qaeda terrorist groups, not their Shiite neighbors. And sectarian violence is down by about 50 percent since December.

Still in denial about civil war? Shall we continue to just call it rampant sectarian violence, then? Has Mr. Kagan not noticed the fact that even in Baghdad, whose eastern side has been largely cleansed of Sunnis and which is now a decidedly majority Shia city for the first time, sectarian murders are back up to pre-surge levels? And yes, many Sunnis are fighting al-Qaeda --- but that does not necessarily mean that they suddenly are beloved of their Shia countrymen. The Sunni insurgency is still just as determined to fight the "Safawi occupiers" as they are the American occupiers.

By far the biggest problem, and the source of most of the violence reported every day, has been al-Qaeda in Iraq. Al-Qaeda's strategy is to foment sectarian violence by killing both Shiites and Sunnis. How come? If sectarian violence were out of control already, why would al-Qaeda have to stir it up? In fact, it is precisely fear that things will calm down in Iraq that has al-Qaeda working overtime to blow things and people up.

AQI and its allies in the ISI have become major players and gained strength in the Sunni insurgency. Whether they are the major generators of violence in Iraq is quite debatable. The large majority of attacks in Iraq still occur against coalition forces, using the DoD's own figures, for instance, and AQI is hardly behind the vast majority of killings of Sunnis in Baghdad, Diyala, and the north. Simply because the RJF fights AQI does not mean it has stopped fighting the coalition or the Iraqi government.

As for the extraordinarily silly argument that AQI must continually stir up sectarian violence to avert an otherwise unstoppable avalance of peace --- that ranks right up there with brother Fred's argument that making alternate plans in case the surge does not work is irresponsible and even impossible. Neocon ideology imposed over reality at its finest.

A Kagan classic, an oldie but goodie in much the same vein.

Iraq, One Year Later (written in March '04)

Electricity and oil production in Iraq have returned to prewar levels. The capture of Saddam Hussein has damaged the Baathist-led insurgency, although jihadists continue to launch horrific attacks on Iraqi civilians. But by most accounts those vicious attacks have spurred more Iraqis to get more involved in building a better Iraq. We may have turned a corner in terms of security ...

What's more, there are hopeful signs that Iraqis of differing religious, ethnic, and political persuasions can work together. This is a far cry from the predictions made before the war by many, both here and in Europe, that a liberated Iraq would fracture into feuding clans and unleash a bloodbath ...