Syria in 2015

[OUTLAW 09]

In dumbest terms coming to my mind...

Let's say Oblabla and... well, any other Western politician not corrupted by Gazprom and similar Russian 'interests'... (Hollande appears a good example)... manage to convince Putler and that wannabe-Ayatollah Khamenei to get Assad out of Damascus...

...and Assad leaves, say, 5 minutes after the moment you've read this post of mine...

...what would that change on the battlefields of Syria?

Would the fighting end?

I strongly doubt this.

Hand at heart: the story about 'chaos without Assad', supposedly because of a break-down of 'civil order' in what was left of Syria under his control - as propagated by Oblabla - is nonsense. Syria (that is: the 30% of country still under supposed control of the regime) is already now a complete chaos. It is bankrupt since November 2011 and surviving only thanks to extensive financial support from Tehran.

Tehran has bankrupted itself 'thanks' to spending about US$50 billion in Syria of the last four years - and is currently surviving only thanks to loans from China, made possible by... surprise, surprise... Daesh advance into northern Iraq, in summer of last year....

Aw... I'm going off-topic now...

Anyway: Syria is ruined. Infra-structure is in tatters; most of major cities completely ruined. Industry is demolished. Agroculture sector ruined by war and successive draughts. There is already now no civil order, but 'organized chaos' run by various quasi-pro-Assad militias - foremost the IRGC-QF, which can't think about anything else but bolstering arsenals of Hezbollah/Lebanon and developing an even large force of Hezbollah/Syria, accompanied by construction of Shi'a religious schools and all the related indoctrination...

But OK. Let's say Assad is gone and ask again: would that mean that various of his militias (usually called 'Syrian Arab Army' or 'Syrian Armed Forces' by our glorious media) would stop fighting?

I would say: no way.

Reasons (roughly, quite roughly):
- a) 30% of these militias are Alawis, who are not only sternously convinced they are better than all the others there, but have so much blood and terror on their hands (not only from 40 years of their dictatorship but also four years of war in which they have destroyed the country) that at least half of them would end on various courts for war criminals - if not right in front of some execution squad.

- b) 10% are Syrian Sunni Nazis (more specifically 'Syrian Socialist National Party'), who think of themselves in terms German Nazis thought of themselves in the 1930s and 1940s.

- c) 10% are Syrian Sunni Ba'athists (and, sigh, hope I need not explaining how Ba'athists think of themselves).

- d) 35% are various Iraqi Shi'a Jihadists recruited by the IRGC (i.e. 'Hezbollah/Iraq'), then the IRGC-recruited Hezbollah/Syria, and Hezbollah/Lebanon, plus mercenaries from Afghanistan, Pakistan and wherever else...

- e) 5% are Palestinians (predominantly Palestinian Christians), that is kids of Palestinian refugees that grew up in Syria and have little other choice but to side with Assad, and various foreign volunteers organized as the 'Arab National Guard';

- f) 5% are Syrian Christians who were dumb enough to side with Assad (well, there is no doubt that emergence of the JAN, Daesh and similar idiots helped them in this decision); and

- g) 5% are Syrian Druze, who were stupid enough to side with Assad (supposedly for their own interests, but actually in order to be used as Assad's show-fight against the Daesh, primarily in Dayr az-Zawr area).

What sane person thinks anybody could bring any semblance of an order into this chaos alone? Not even the IRGC can control all of this (not to talk about Assad), but somebody thinks some sort of 'international agreement' - could?

And, how can anybody think he/she could bring an order into a chaos of about 2,000 'registered' armed opposition groups fighting against the above-mentioned conglomerate?

And then - a question which is ah-so-overimportant for the West: what's with Daesh? How shall anybody bring them under control?

Even if, say, there is a multi-national coalition that launches an all-out invasion of that pseudo-state: what shall we do with all of these idiots once they are defeated? Slaughter them to the last combatant, wife and kid? Forcefully convert them...? or convince them to convert... and to what...?

I'm really sorry, and be sure: I really mean no offense to anybody.

But, my conclusion - which appears 'unavoidable' to me - is that anybody thinking some sort of 'diplomatic solution' to this conflict is possible, is daydreaming.

(Note: which shouldn't mean that I think that any kind of military solution is possible, either. It is simply too late. So, grab yourself a bag of popcorn, some beer, and watch - as long as you still can.)

CB--any reason why your assessment is not making into mainstream media?
I mean it is all there for them to see and analyze but why do they ignore it?

So is Putin in a swamp with no way out or is he just establishing a really long term large scale naval, ground and air military presence in the ME, kicking the US out of the area, controlling the Med as he does the Black, Caspian and Azov Seas and to a large degree the Baltic and he does not care how deep the swamp gets?

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian jets are burning down my town." Impt report from @SherineT on the effects of Russia's "anti-Isis" strikes http://news.sky.com/story/1568280/ru...g-down-my-town …

Updates for North #Aleppo:
- Rebels claimed to retake both of Kashtaar & Mezre villages.
- Clashes ongoing in Malikiya village.

ISIS Nowhere in Sight - My report from Rebel controlled Aleppo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biT7XXGMclI …

Hama: Syrian Rebels hold ground & kill Assad regime officer
http://en.eldorar.com/node/803

Reference Russian info warriors......
Putin trolls using fake accounts pretending they live in the west & some of them pushing the blacklivesmatter hashtag

[OUTLAW 09]

In dumbest terms coming to my mind...

Let's say Oblabla and... well, any other Western politician not corrupted by Gazprom and similar Russian 'interests'... (Hollande appears a good example)... manage to convince Putler and that wannabe-Ayatollah Khamenei to get Assad out of Damascus...

...and Assad leaves, say, 5 minutes after the moment you've read this post of mine...

...what would that change on the battlefields of Syria?

Would the fighting end?

I strongly doubt this.

Hand at heart: the story about 'chaos without Assad', supposedly because of a break-down of 'civil order' in what was left of Syria under his control - as propagated by Oblabla - is nonsense. Syria (that is: the 30% of country still under supposed control of the regime) is already now a complete chaos. It is bankrupt since November 2011 and surviving only thanks to extensive financial support from Tehran.

Tehran has bankrupted itself 'thanks' to spending about US$50 billion in Syria of the last four years - and is currently surviving only thanks to loans from China, made possible by... surprise, surprise... Daesh advance into northern Iraq, in summer of last year....

Aw... I'm going off-topic now...

Anyway: Syria is ruined. Infra-structure is in tatters; most of major cities completely ruined. Industry is demolished. Agroculture sector ruined by war and successive draughts. There is already now no civil order, but 'organized chaos' run by various quasi-pro-Assad militias - foremost the IRGC-QF, which can't think about anything else but bolstering arsenals of Hezbollah/Lebanon and developing an even large force of Hezbollah/Syria, accompanied by construction of Shi'a religious schools and all the related indoctrination...

But OK. Let's say Assad is gone and ask again: would that mean that various of his militias (usually called 'Syrian Arab Army' or 'Syrian Armed Forces' by our glorious media) would stop fighting?

I would say: no way.

Reasons (roughly, quite roughly):
- a) 30% of these militias are Alawis, who are not only sternously convinced they are better than all the others there, but have so much blood and terror on their hands (not only from 40 years of their dictatorship but also four years of war in which they have destroyed the country) that at least half of them would end on various courts for war criminals - if not right in front of some execution squad.

- b) 10% are Syrian Sunni Nazis (more specifically 'Syrian Socialist National Party'), who think of themselves in terms German Nazis thought of themselves in the 1930s and 1940s.

- c) 10% are Syrian Sunni Ba'athists (and, sigh, hope I need not explaining how Ba'athists think of themselves).

- d) 35% are various Iraqi Shi'a Jihadists recruited by the IRGC (i.e. 'Hezbollah/Iraq'), then the IRGC-recruited Hezbollah/Syria, and Hezbollah/Lebanon, plus mercenaries from Afghanistan, Pakistan and wherever else...

- e) 5% are Palestinians (predominantly Palestinian Christians), that is kids of Palestinian refugees that grew up in Syria and have little other choice but to side with Assad, and various foreign volunteers organized as the 'Arab National Guard';

- f) 5% are Syrian Christians who were dumb enough to side with Assad (well, there is no doubt that emergence of the JAN, Daesh and similar idiots helped them in this decision); and

- g) 5% are Syrian Druze, who were stupid enough to side with Assad (supposedly for their own interests, but actually in order to be used as Assad's show-fight against the Daesh, primarily in Dayr az-Zawr area).

What sane person thinks anybody could bring any semblance of an order into this chaos alone? Not even the IRGC can control all of this (not to talk about Assad), but somebody thinks some sort of 'international agreement' - could?

And, how can anybody think he/she could bring an order into a chaos of about 2,000 'registered' armed opposition groups fighting against the above-mentioned conglomerate?

And then - a question which is ah-so-overimportant for the West: what's with Daesh? How shall anybody bring them under control?

Even if, say, there is a multi-national coalition that launches an all-out invasion of that pseudo-state: what shall we do with all of these idiots once they are defeated? Slaughter them to the last combatant, wife and kid? Forcefully convert them...? or convince them to convert... and to what...?

I'm really sorry, and be sure: I really mean no offense to anybody.

But, my conclusion - which appears 'unavoidable' to me - is that anybody thinking some sort of 'diplomatic solution' to this conflict is possible, is daydreaming.

(Note: which shouldn't mean that I think that any kind of military solution is possible, either. It is simply too late. So, grab yourself a bag of popcorn, some beer, and watch - as long as you still can.)

AND this is how a US Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard sees the problem.......

From Gabbard

“Here are 10 reasons the U.S. must end its war to overthrow the Syrian government of Assad:
1.Because if we succeed in overthrowing the Syrian government of Assad, it will open the door for ISIS, al-Qaeda, and other Islamic extremists to take over all of Syria. There will be genocide and suffering on a scale beyond our imagination. These Islamic extremists will take over all the weaponry, infrastructure, and military hardware of the Syrian army and be more dangerous than ever before.
2.We should not be allying ourselves with these Islamic extremists by helping them achieve their goal because it is against the security interests of the United States and all of civilization.
3.Because the money and weapons the CIA is providing to overthrow the Syrian government of Assad are going directly or indirectly into the hands of the Islamic extremist groups, including al-Qaeda affiliates, al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, and others who are the actual enemies of the United States. These groups make up close to 90 percent of the so-called opposition forces, and are the most dominant fighters on the ground.
4.Because our efforts to overthrow Assad has increased and will continue to increase the strength of ISIS and other Islamic extremists, thus making them a bigger regional and global threat.
5.Because this war has exacerbated the chaos and carnage in Syria and, along with the terror inflicted by ISIS and other Islamic extremist groups fighting to take over Syria, continues to increase the number of Syrians forced to flee their country.
6.Because we should learn from our past mistakes in Iraq and Libya that U.S. wars to overthrow secular dictators (Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi) cause even more chaos and human suffering and open the door for Islamic extremists to take over in those countries.
7.Because the U.S. has no credible government or government leader ready to bring order, security, and freedom to the people of Syria.
8.Because even the ‘best case’ scenario—that the U.S. successfully overthrows the Syrian government of Assad—would obligate the United States to spend trillions of dollars and the lives of American service members in the futile effort to create a new Syria. This is what we have been trying to do in Iraq for twelve years, and we still have not succeeded. The situation in Syria will be much more difficult than in Iraq.
9.Because our war against the Syrian government of Assad is interfering with our being one-pointedly focused on the war to defeat ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and the other Islamic extremists who are our actual enemy.
10.Because our war to overthrow the Assad government puts us in direct conflict with Russia and increases the likelihood of war between the United States and Russia and the possibility of another world war.”

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria #Latakia Rebels take of Mt Zahia near #Turkey- seized 2 tanks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sc3x...ature=youtu.be …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8M9f...ature=youtu.be …

Assad army bombardment partially collapses high-rise residential building in #ElWaer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdNCQODtVKc …

Footage
Rebel report from Tell Masharah in the #Quneitra "triangle of death".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSPDwAH3KMM …

[OUTLAW 09]

In dumbest terms coming to my mind...

Let's say Oblabla and... well, any other Western politician not corrupted by Gazprom and similar Russian 'interests'... (Hollande appears a good example)... manage to convince Putler and that wannabe-Ayatollah Khamenei to get Assad out of Damascus...

...and Assad leaves, say, 5 minutes after the moment you've read this post of mine...

...what would that change on the battlefields of Syria?

Would the fighting end?

I strongly doubt this.

Hand at heart: the story about 'chaos without Assad', supposedly because of a break-down of 'civil order' in what was left of Syria under his control - as propagated by Oblabla - is nonsense. Syria (that is: the 30% of country still under supposed control of the regime) is already now a complete chaos. It is bankrupt since November 2011 and surviving only thanks to extensive financial support from Tehran.

Tehran has bankrupted itself 'thanks' to spending about US$50 billion in Syria of the last four years - and is currently surviving only thanks to loans from China, made possible by... surprise, surprise... Daesh advance into northern Iraq, in summer of last year....

Aw... I'm going off-topic now...

Anyway: Syria is ruined. Infra-structure is in tatters; most of major cities completely ruined. Industry is demolished. Agroculture sector ruined by war and successive draughts. There is already now no civil order, but 'organized chaos' run by various quasi-pro-Assad militias - foremost the IRGC-QF, which can't think about anything else but bolstering arsenals of Hezbollah/Lebanon and developing an even large force of Hezbollah/Syria, accompanied by construction of Shi'a religious schools and all the related indoctrination...

But OK. Let's say Assad is gone and ask again: would that mean that various of his militias (usually called 'Syrian Arab Army' or 'Syrian Armed Forces' by our glorious media) would stop fighting?

I would say: no way.

Reasons (roughly, quite roughly):
- a) 30% of these militias are Alawis, who are not only sternously convinced they are better than all the others there, but have so much blood and terror on their hands (not only from 40 years of their dictatorship but also four years of war in which they have destroyed the country) that at least half of them would end on various courts for war criminals - if not right in front of some execution squad.

- b) 10% are Syrian Sunni Nazis (more specifically 'Syrian Socialist National Party'), who think of themselves in terms German Nazis thought of themselves in the 1930s and 1940s.

- c) 10% are Syrian Sunni Ba'athists (and, sigh, hope I need not explaining how Ba'athists think of themselves).

- d) 35% are various Iraqi Shi'a Jihadists recruited by the IRGC (i.e. 'Hezbollah/Iraq'), then the IRGC-recruited Hezbollah/Syria, and Hezbollah/Lebanon, plus mercenaries from Afghanistan, Pakistan and wherever else...

- e) 5% are Palestinians (predominantly Palestinian Christians), that is kids of Palestinian refugees that grew up in Syria and have little other choice but to side with Assad, and various foreign volunteers organized as the 'Arab National Guard';

- f) 5% are Syrian Christians who were dumb enough to side with Assad (well, there is no doubt that emergence of the JAN, Daesh and similar idiots helped them in this decision); and

- g) 5% are Syrian Druze, who were stupid enough to side with Assad (supposedly for their own interests, but actually in order to be used as Assad's show-fight against the Daesh, primarily in Dayr az-Zawr area).

What sane person thinks anybody could bring any semblance of an order into this chaos alone? Not even the IRGC can control all of this (not to talk about Assad), but somebody thinks some sort of 'international agreement' - could?

And, how can anybody think he/she could bring an order into a chaos of about 2,000 'registered' armed opposition groups fighting against the above-mentioned conglomerate?

And then - a question which is ah-so-overimportant for the West: what's with Daesh? How shall anybody bring them under control?

Even if, say, there is a multi-national coalition that launches an all-out invasion of that pseudo-state: what shall we do with all of these idiots once they are defeated? Slaughter them to the last combatant, wife and kid? Forcefully convert them...? or convince them to convert... and to what...?

I'm really sorry, and be sure: I really mean no offense to anybody.

But, my conclusion - which appears 'unavoidable' to me - is that anybody thinking some sort of 'diplomatic solution' to this conflict is possible, is daydreaming.

(Note: which shouldn't mean that I think that any kind of military solution is possible, either. It is simply too late. So, grab yourself a bag of popcorn, some beer, and watch - as long as you still can.)

CB--what do you think of this recently posted comment......

Piece by piece the #Assad/#Putin/#Khamenei armies "shape" #Syria so no single opponent of the regimes can live in it anymore ...

[CrowBat]

CB--what do you think of this recently posted comment......
Piece by piece the #Assad/#Putin/#Khamenei armies "shape" #Syria so no single opponent of the regimes can live in it anymore ...

'Scarry'.

Don't know if you've seen this:
Russian Intervention Reveals Assad’s Wariness of Iran:

...Beyond providing military support that has proved decisive in keeping anti-Assad rebels at bay, Iran has opened religious centers in the country that seek to convert both Alawites and Sunnis to “correct” Shia Islam. The government decreed one year ago that state-run religion institutions were to teach Shiite material.

Iranian emissaries have also been buying up buildings and land in Damascus, the capital, to resettle Shiites.

The Times of Israel, basing itself on stories in Arab media, recently reported that Iranian forces were helping to raze homes in Damascus to force Sunni residents out.

Reports surfaced early in the war of Alawite hit squads cleansing Sunni towns in the Nusayriyah Mountains that shield Assad’s homeland in the northwest from the rest of Syria.

Alawites are perturbed by Iran’s encroachment. “They are throwing us back a thousand years,” Der Spiegel reports some complaining. “We don’t even wear headscarves and we aren’t Shiites.”

The Russians, by contrast, are welcomed in the Alawite provinces of Syria...

On the other side: Alawis are themselves to blame. They've trusted Assad and remained loyal, setting their own hair on fire instead of negotiating.

[Bill Moore]

The Latest: Putin: Russia to cooperate with US-led coalition: http://bigstory.ap.org/ce71e672811c4...campaign=share

and now,

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...8a6_story.html


Russia plays down idea of coalition with West to strike ISIS in Syria

The Kremlin on Friday played down the possibility of a grand coalition with the West to strike the Islamic State in Syria, despite personal visits by French President Franois Hollande to both Washington and Moscow following a spate of horrific terrorist attacks tied to the terrorist group.

At the moment, unfortunately, our partners are not ready to work as one coalition, Dmitry Peskov, President Vladimir Putins personal spokesman, told reporters during a conference call on Friday.

I understand Tulsi Gabbard's logic, I suspect a lot of vets have similar views to a point. I thought our initial involvement was foolish also, especially since we only put one toe in the water, which was more attempt to create the illusion of doing something important. It came to a head when we failed to enforce a clearly stated red line. However, working with Assad became impossible after he started committed atrocities against the Syrian people, and oddly enough less effort directed against ISIS. The nature of drawn out wars change over time, the political object changes, the way it if fought changes, but we have an administration that IMO has failed to evolve his strategy to nest with today's reality. Crowbat provides a very clear explanation of why leaving the current government in place won't work, and any strategy that fails to comprehensively address Assad, ISIS, and the larger region (and arguably global dimensions) is not truly a strategy. A strategy with X number of lines of effort directed a small part of the overall problem (ISIS) is not worthy of being called a strategy and will ultimately fail.

[OUTLAW 09]

Breaking Reports of Israeli airstrikes targeting #Hezbollah near Serghaya & Kafr Yabous area & Flaita in Qalamoun, rural #Damascus, #Syria

Russia'n night airstrikes on Sarmada near Bab Al-Hawa border-crossing #Syria-#Turkey http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36...19656&z=14&m=b …

Yasser Abdul Raheem (Head of Fateh Halab operations room) talking about massacre perpetrated by Jaysh Al-Thuwar.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyI2IvrU_rM ….

Aleppo 20+ residents of Tanab village found dead after #YPG & allies retreated http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36...01266&z=15&m=b

drone cam: Shiite forces fled Tell Bajer in southern #Aleppo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqe8...ature=youtu.be …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...85002&z=15&m=b …

Again, taking a picture with Gen. Suleimani is really dangerous.
Maysam Madawri (#IRGC officer) killed. #Syria

using Cluster bombs against Civilians in #Raqqa is A WAR CRIME, international community should take responsibility

Nusra captures more Iranian fodder imported to Syria to fight for regional warlord Assad around #Aleppo. @Halab__JN

Latakia Rebels took mountain east of Nab' al-Murr
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...09493&z=14&m=b …
Rebels show Russian cluster-munition BM-30 Smerch rockets casing attacked #Ghab villages.
https://youtu.be/MFpUBM3LPt0

Syria Rebels blow up BMP in southern #Aleppo TOW hit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tItUj9RP9aw …

Rebels took over Mount al-Humairah overlooking regime supply road to #Aleppo & village below
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...07753&z=14&m=b …

Syria al Jazeera reporter: Jaish al-Fatah killed 40 pro #Assad-forces in southern #Aleppo tday

Jabhat Al-Nusra has ZERO presence in North Aleppo countryside. They withdrew ages ago when there was talks of a so called "safe zone" +1

JaF taken control of Mukahlah in southern rural #Aleppo
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...16716&z=15&m=b …
FSA hit T-72 tank in southern #Aleppo TOW hit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXzBMqM7VRA …

Jaish al Fatah try to advance now in southern #Aleppo countryside
& launch new assault

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian use starvation as a weapon system.....same tactic used by Assad for over 4 years.....

Russia set up blockade to starve out #Aleppo & #Idlib in northern #Syria
- daily airstrikes on the 2 main border crossings to #Turkey

Aleppo #Russia'n airstrike hit they highway lead to #Turkey border crossing at #Azaz
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnqlTI73Z_s …

Brutally GRAPHIC.....
Aleppo #Russia'n airstike behead little girl in #Azaz border town to #Turkey
https://vid.me/CryG

New #Russia'n airstrikes on #Sarmada & #Azaz rebel hold border-crossing towns to #Turkey in northern #Idlib & northern #Aleppo

Nusra claim repelled assault on Al-Qarassi & Al-Huwayz & killed "dozens of #Assad-forces"
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36...92204&z=15&m=b …

Aleppo People of Mariameen protest against kurdish #YPG-occupation of their village
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36...52386&z=14&m=b …

Latakia Moment when turkmen rebels storming Mt Zahia near #Turkey
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qadvnY-Iz-Y …

[OUTLAW 09]

Latakia Rebels took mountain east of Nab' al-Murr
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...09493&z=14&m=b …

how far away are rebels from the Russian air base there?
30 km or so

mountainous terrain slows regime offensive,Also TOWs must be poured on them like rain.

[OUTLAW 09]

Rebels pulled out #YPG& allies from Malikia, Tanab & Al-Kishta'ar (west of highway) in northern #Aleppohttp://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36...09506&z=13&m=b …

Rebels have been beating up on YPG that is acting typical Kurdish and taking Arab towns and being occupiers not "liberators".

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia is starting to take serious loses that they are not admitting at all.....

Confirmed: 2 #Russia'n soldiers from 22. Speznas-Brigade in Rostov/Don killed in #Syria & buried at 12. November

First ten were reported, then 12, then 2 Spetsnaz and now another 2 Spetsnaz

[OUTLAW 09]

It becomes obvious,Russia not only wants to split the west but also reshape the Middle East's balance of power with its engagement in Syria.

It's gonna be a comprehensive longtime engagement, not stopping before total victory for Assad/Putin or military / strategic defeat.

Putin found himself a "rebel" group YPG to fight side by side with Assad/IRGC after all attempts to break FSA/Islamic Front coalition failed

Omg..
Russia takes it to a new level,blaming Turkey for all terror in Syria & vowing to become Assad's border guard.

Putin rages against Erdogan, who tries to calm Putin down. Unlikely to succeed. Russia isolates itself ever more. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...eKDyCsicZso.97 …

[OUTLAW 09]

and now,

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...8a6_story.html


Russia plays down idea of coalition with West to strike ISIS in Syria



I understand Tulsi Gabbard's logic, I suspect a lot of vets have similar views to a point. I thought our initial involvement was foolish also, especially since we only put one toe in the water, which was more attempt to create the illusion of doing something important. It came to a head when we failed to enforce a clearly stated red line. However, working with Assad became impossible after he started committed atrocities against the Syrian people, and oddly enough less effort directed against ISIS. The nature of drawn out wars change over time, the political object changes, the way it if fought changes, but we have an administration that IMO has failed to evolve his strategy to nest with today's reality. Crowbat provides a very clear explanation of why leaving the current government in place won't work, and any strategy that fails to comprehensively address Assad, ISIS, and the larger region (and arguably global dimensions) is not truly a strategy. A strategy with X number of lines of effort directed a small part of the overall problem (ISIS) is not worthy of being called a strategy and will ultimately fail.

Bill--Putin is starting to rudder truly into the realm of an altered state of reality were he thinks he is the single most powerful superpower----actually he is getting a seriously tad dangerous and out of control....

It becomes obvious,Russia not only wants to split the West but also reshape the Middle East's balance of power with its engagement in Syria.

It's gonna be a comprehensive longtime engagement, not stopping before total victory for Assad/Putin or military / strategic defeat.

Putin found himself a "rebel" group YPG to fight side by side with Assad/IRGC after all attempts to break FSA/Islamic Front coalition failed
3 RuAF airstrikes hit Azaz outskirts to support Kurdish #YPG & Jaish al-Thuwar ground attack on rebel's positions.
Russia is alluding to the fact that they will support YPG in their quest for a Kurdish homeland......

Russia takes it to a new level,blaming Turkey for all terror in Syria & vowing to become Assad's border guard.

Putin rages against Erdogan, who tries to calm Putin down. Unlikely to succeed. Russia isolates itself ever more.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...eKDyCsicZso.97 …

Russian info war media outlet Sputnik......
RussiaLies
#France didn't "condemn #Turkey" or accuse it of undermining anti-ISIS operation at NATO Council meeting

I have had may own doubts of where Erdogan is heading but in this shot down event--he fully acted correctly in the face of constant Putin provocations-just as the West should have pushed back in Ukraine.

The standard thinking in DC was say to not provoke Putin in the Ukraine out of fear Putin would escalate....well Turkey provoked back and Putin huffed and puffed but he did not escalate--why because even his Generals know they cannot win a direct NATO confrontation thus huffing and puffing and that is about it.

[OUTLAW 09]

FSA blow IRGC BMP south #Aleppo with TOW missile.
https://youtu.be/tItUj9RP9aw

Russian double standards....they are killing civilians at an alarming rate with dumb bombs, cluster munitions, WP and thermobarbic weapons AND the Russian AF are not terrorists.....

Lavrov: 'That group' that were shooting at our ejected pilot must be listed as terrorist, no way forward before that

BUT the West supports these Russian strikes against civilians as they absolutely say nothing about them........

#FSA Thuwar al-Sham battalions destroyIRGC militia T72 with TOW missile south #Aleppo.
https://youtu.be/bXzBMqM7VRA

Jaish al-Fath pounding IRGC militia in Tall Banjira with hellfire.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35...68472&z=16&m=b …
https://youtu.be/OkVSzWXXP8Y

[Bill Moore]

Russia takes it to a new level,blaming Turkey for all terror in Syria & vowing to become Assad's border guard.

Outlaw, every good lie or propaganda is mixed with truth, and it does seem Russia's claim of Turkey's support for ISIL has some legitimacy. What a crazy world, Assad allegedly supports ISIL, Turkey who fighting to oust Assad supports ISIL, Russia supports Assad, but fears ISIL. The U.S. is leading (term loosely used here) an Arab coalition of many nations with many different interests, each supporting their own proxy groups. Pandora's Box?

http://asbarez.com/142150/columbia-u...links-to-isis/

Columbia University Researchers Confirm Turkey’s Links to ISIS

A team of Columbia University researchers from the United States, Europe, and Turkey confirmed last week that the Turkish government has provided to ISIS: military cooperation, weapons, logistical support, financial assistance, and medical services. This detailed investigation was headed by David L. Phillips, Director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights. He had served as Senior Advisor and Foreign Affairs Expert for the U.S. Department of State.

In addition to the support indicated in the paragraph above, they study states:

3.Turkey Trained ISIS Fighters

6.Turkey Assisted ISIS Recruitment

•On Sept. 20, 2014, Demir Celik, a Member of Parliament representing the People’s Democratic Party (HDP), stated that Turkish Special Forces had joined ISIS in the battlefield

8.Turkey Helped ISIS in Battle for Kobani

9.Turkey and ISIS Share a Worldview

•Hurriyet newspaper quoted a Turkish civil servant on Sept. 26, 2014: “I was shocked to hear words of admiration for ISIL from some high-level civil servants.”
•An AKP council member posted on his Facebook page: “Thankfully ISIS exists…. May you never run out of ammunition….”

[OUTLAW 09]

Idlib: #Russia'n airstrike on Binnish killed 7 - but also violate truce- agreement (#Fuah/#Kafarya & #Zabadani)

Russia'n airstrikes on Dana town in northern #Idlib- road to #Turkey border

Another Nusra "video game" when stormed Tell Bajer /#Aleppo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLdXKEzvEaM …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...83414&z=15&m=b
…
Russia bombs IS near Tel Aran. IS trying to capture it from Syrian regime in the area in which several Kurdish...
http://fb.me/7Dnoxxflz

JN/AQ fighter with a US Humvee captured in southern Aleppo from pro-SAA forces
https://twitter.com/green_lemonnn/st...06646835097600 …

FSA's Liwaa Ahrar Surya announcing Sheikh Maqsud (#YPG-held) as a military zone after 24 killed, in a statement.

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw, every good lie or propaganda is mixed with truth, and it does seem Russia's claim of Turkey's support for ISIL has some legitimacy. What a crazy world, Assad allegedly supports ISIL, Turkey who fighting to oust Assad supports ISIL, Russia supports Assad, but fears ISIL. The U.S. is leading (term loosely used here) an Arab coalition of many nations with many different interests, each supporting their own proxy groups. Pandora's Box?

http://asbarez.com/142150/columbia-u...links-to-isis/

Columbia University Researchers Confirm Turkey’s Links to ISIS

In addition to the support indicated in the paragraph above, they study states:

Bill--you bring up an interesting point in this proxy mix---Erdogan is dangerous just as dangerous actually as is Putin--he is a dictator striving via the appearance of democracy to achieve a new Islamic state not built on secularism but on his view of Islam.

Secondly he is striving to be a regional player BUT here is where he is not much different than Putin--he views Syria to be his personal Ukraine just as Putin views the Ukraine from his perspective.

Erdogan has been working with IS for a long while allowing recruits to flow to them via Turkey, munitions and arms went over the border and Turkey looked the other way when oil flowed back into Turkey.

But more importantly Turkey has wanted the ouster of Assad from the beginning and viewed IS as being capable of doing exactly that---he was played though by IS which really was in bed with Assad and has not really offensive wise ever threatened Assad--who has threatened Assad has been the FSA and other anti Assad forces and to a large degree the AQ affiliate JaN who exactly is a better fighting group than IS and who has worked a lot with the FSA and other anti Assad groups.

Turkeys goals with tossing out Assad also aligned with the other Sunni Front States especially the KSA--and the TOWs that are coming into Syria are coming via the Turkish border THAT is the real reason Russia wants the border closed---simply put the Russians believe that by closing the border they can effectively kill all rebel resistance.

BUT the US is playing the game as well---just how did they suddenly get the airfield landing rights for the F15/16s after Turkey rejected the US constant requests---it is seriously rumored that during the JSOC raid to free hostages they recovered a large number of IS documents that fully documented the Turkish assistance to IS along with names, accounts and organizations--THEN when this was waved at Erdogan the landing rights came almost immediately.

My deep concern is really that Erdogan is taking Turkey to deep into the Islamist direction AND that he is seriously ready to defend "Turkish" interests and ethnic Turks in the border regions. He has an inherent "nationalist" bent.

The moving of over 20 tanks into the border regions, beefing up his army units and placing 18 F16s into patrols along the border is a major indicator.

Yesterday there was a more serious rumor that the Turkish Army has moved major MRLS units up to the edge of the border and bunkered in---these units now make the advance Russian airfield with their new AD systems S400s in a serious form of checkmate---a barrage of MRLSs has the range to hit the field quite accurately.

Along with some of their longer range artillery Turkey has checkmated as well the Russia moves.

Putin on the other hand seems to not fully understand just how far Erdogan is willing to go--there was an article in "The Moscow Times" from the 26th that indicated that some higher level decision makers realized that Putin had miscalculated the Turkish moves which should not have been a surprise to them after their stream of provocations--regardless of what the Russians are saying it appears the SU24 pilot was far into setting up the perfect bombing run and simply did not care where the border was as the Turks had not responded previously.

They are now voicing some concern that the constant bombing directly on the border is a provocation that will come back to hit them as they feel Erdogan cannot continue to look the other way--that might be the not so subtle signal of the MRLS moves.

BTW that single shot down won Erdogan a high respect even from the FSA so with one move he cemented his standing in their eyes.

Putin might have actually met his match in a leader who can wield power and makes decisions based on his own interests not that of the US or NATO.

[CrowBat]

CB--any reason why your assessment is not making into mainstream media?
I mean it is all there for them to see and analyze but why do they ignore it?

Well, I'm surely not the only one thinking this way. Not even the only 'Tom' thinking that way: you've posted that excellent articlle by Tom Cotton, already.

Seriously now: the intensity and impacts of the Russian PR-campaign does not stop amazing me (only the Saudi efforts in regards of curbing any sorts of negative publicity are more sophisticated). After chatting (even 'clashing') with few officers of various NATO militiaries yesterday and today, I cannot but conclude that Russians are really excelling in convincing everybody that only they are right, and everybody else is wrong.

To majority of people it doesn't matter how much are Russians lying, how often are they caught lying and proven to lie. They simply don't care because Russians are feeding them with what they want to hear.

And that is: all Arabs are terrorists, but all Syrians especially so (indeed, all Syrians are Daesh - except those siding with 'progressive and non-religious grant of stability of Syria', also known as Assadist regime, of course), and Russians are right in bombing whoever they want to bomb in Syria.

When one asks about Russians cooperating with terrorist organizations, answers are such like, 'IRGC...who...? Hezb... what...?'

Asking people to connect the dots between the flow of refugees caused by Assadist terror - and that very flow of refugees into the EU, 'eh...?'

It's like one is trying to talk about higher mathematics with a mentaly disabled person...

Some - and I'm not only talking about members of various East European militaries (all NATO-members; though also renown for their xenophobia) but even about members of various West European services - are acting as if the IRGC and Hezbollah never run any kind of terrorist operations against the West and never ended on any kind of lists of terrorist organizations. It's like that quasi-Islamist regime in Tehran doesn't exist, and like if Turkey is run by a regime that's worse than those of Iran and Saudi Arabia combined...

This is not only ironic, nor even sarcastic any more: just silly, though bordering on pure sadism too.

Namely, the really tragic aspect of this situation is that it's so damn hard to wake up people out of this daydreaming: it took Hungarian, Romanian and Afghan smugglers to kill 70+ Iraqi, Iranian and Syrian refugees in that truck on the highway from Budapest to Vienna for Austrian and German governments to get into action regarding the flow of refugees. It took 130 murdered in Paris for at least France to go into action against the Daesh. Shall I list all the other terrorist attacks of the last few weeks around the world...?

I don't expect anything useful from Eastern Europe any more: they are so happy to consider the EU their milking cow, so convinced of their superior 'anti-Imperialism' (while succumbing precisely to the very same effect they're so proudly opposing), and so xenophobic at the same time, they don't even want to share anything of their new wealth with anybody else.

I don't expect anything from Western governments: part of these is so endlessly corrupt, so struck in their own quagmire, they'll never get out.

But, I just don't dare imaginning what kind of horror is necessary to get Western public to wake up from this daydreaming.

[OUTLAW 09]

Bill--more of these types of reports are now flowing in and I personally do not see Erdogan deciding he can ignore them--the RuAF is now getting up front and personal and in the face of the Turks---as these reports make it into the Turkish MSM Erdogan will have no other choice but to act.

Killing ethnic Turks will haunt Putin as he was the one who complained he needed to "protect ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine"....

Yesterday an entire family was killed while sitting in their car at the crossing point and the world saw a video depicting a headless young child being carried by her father.

RUAF killed a whole family in their house in Binish village #Idlib.

Russian soldiers fighting for Assad regime probably in Turkman and Akrad Mounts #Latakia (Selfie photos posted to their VK accounts).

Can someone explain how Russians deliberately targeting schools is a response to Turkey?
https://youtu.be/rfLWRttbZeQ

Why #Turkey suddenly needs tanks close to #Syrian border unless willingly preparing to have ground force for #Russia|n S-400 in #Latakia.

Why #Russia needs so many S-400s in #Syria unless seriously intending to down ANY foe aircraft in Syrian airspace