My thinking is that any future Russian incursion will "surprise" the West, but not actually deviate from Putin's past adventures in Georgia and now the Ukraine:
1. The target will be in Russia's "sphere of influence", "backyard" or "near abroad"
2. The target's population will contain a substantial minority or majority of ethnic Russians or pro-Russians (Abkhazians and Ossetians being Caucasian/Iranic people)
3. The target will be start tracking toward the West or otherwise away from Russia's orbit
4. The target will have both military and economic importance to Russia at the strategic level
5. The target will not be protected by a mutual defense treaty or any other explicit military alliance
Two targets meet these criteria: Belarus and Kazakhstan.
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